2020 election toolbox - clark hill plc€¦ · alice johnson | slide last updated on: may 28, 2019...

2020 Election Toolbox

A guide to the 2020 presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial elections

January 14, 2020

Producer National Journal Presentation Center

Roadmap

Presidential election

Congressional elections

Congressional fundraising

Gubernatorial elections

2016 electionoutcome

Clinton EC votes, 222

MN10

PA20

MI16

NC15

FL29

AZ11

GA16

Trump EC votes, 189WI10

3

Potential 2020 electoral college scenarios based on performance in swing states

Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: May 28, 2019

2% shifttowards Clintonin swing states


MN10

PA20

MI16

NC15

FL29

AZ11

GA16


4% shifttowards Clintonin swing states


MN10

PA20

MI16

NC15

FL29

AZ11

GA16


*North Carolina did not have a Senate election in 2018

Sources: Swing states based on Cook Political Report rankings270 Electoral College votes needed to win

2018 Senate raceoutcomes in swing

states


MN10

PA20

MI16

NC*15

FL29

AZ11

GA16


4

Key trends to watch in 2020 elections

Zachary Goldstein | Slide last updated on: August 13, 2019

Sources: US News & World Report, Migration Policy Institute, New York Times, Vox.

Clinton EC votes with Texas, 270MN10

PA20

MI16

NC15

FL29

AZ11

GA16

Trump EC votes w/out Texas, 268WI10

270 Electoral College votes needed to win

TX38

President Trump’s approval rating remains strong in solidly Republican states• In estimates based on 2018 midterm exit polls and results, President Trump received strong approval ratings in solidly

red states and majority support in key states such as Georgia (51.0%), Texas (50.7%), and Florida (50.2%)• However, Trump had lower levels of support in swing states such as Pennsylvania (46.7%) and Michigan (45.9%)

Suburban districts may play an important role in 2020 elections• Many suburban districts flipped from red to blue in the 2018 congressional midterm elections: of the 69 suburban

districts held by Republicans before the midterms, 37 voted for the Democratic House candidate• These suburban voters could play a significant role in both the 2020 presidential election and 2020 congressional races

Changing demographics in key states could make them more competitive• Metropolitan areas in Texas are projected to double in population from 2010 to 2050• Texas experienced the largest absolute growth in immigrant population of any state from 2000 to 2017• If Clinton won Texas, she would have reached the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidential election

JoeBiden

ElizabethWarren

BernieSanders

Pete Buttigieg

MichaelBloomberg

AmyKlobuchar

AndrewYang

MichaelBennet

DevalPatrick

JohnDelaney

Tom Steyer

TulsiGabbard

DonaldTrump

BillWeld

JoeWalsh

2020 candidates for US president

Slide last updated on: January 14, 2020 5

6

Twelve Democratic primary candidates have dropped their 2020 presidential bids2016 and 2020 presidential primary dropout timeline

AS OF JANUARY 14, 2020

6

Sources: Ballotpedia, Fortune, The Atlantic.

August Gebhard-Koenigstein | Slide last updated on: January 2, 2020

Indicates a primary debate Indicates the New Hampshire (first line) and Iowa (second line) caucuses

7

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) have raised the most so far in the Democratic primary

$74.4

$60.3

$51.5 $49.6

$37.8

$21.1

$17.5

$14.5

$9.1

$5.6

$45.3

$34.6

$28.2

$47.0

$28.8

$20.8

$13.8

$8.2 $7.0

$3.8

Sources: FEC

Total receipts at the end Q3 (September 30, 2019)

■ Total receipts ■ Total disbursements

Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: October 21, 2019

IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

8

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) had the most cash on hand of the Democratic field at the end of Q3

$33.8

$25.7

$23.4

$9.0

$6.4

$3.7 $2.6 $2.1 $1.9

$0.5

Sources: FEC.

Total cash on hand at the end Q3 (September 30, 2019)

Madeline Hanson | Slide last updated on: November 11, 2019

IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

9

Joe Biden leads the pack of Democratic contenders in number of endorsements

Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: January 14, 2020

Sources: FiveThirtyEight, Courier Journal, Politico.

■ Representative endorsement ■ Senator endorsement ■ Governor endorsement ■ Mayor endorsement

Endorsements for declared Democratic candidates

29

11

4 5 5

1 2

5

1

11

3

1

4

1

21

2

4

Biden Warren Klobuchar Sanders Buttigieg Bloomberg Delaney

On Jan. 13, Rep. Max Rose (D-NY-11) became the first member of Congress to endorse Mike Bloomberg.

Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts

Sources: National Journal Research, 2019

Bernie Sanders currently has the largest social media following of any declared presidential candidate besides Trump

10

Current as of January 14, 2020

■ Facebook likes ■ Twitter followers ■ Instagram followers

Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: January 14, 2020

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

20,000,000

BernieSanders

ElizabethWarren

Joe Biden MikeBloomberg

PeteButtigieg

AndrewYang

TulsiGabbard

Joe Walsh AmyKlobuchar

TomSteyer

JohnDelaney

Bill Weld MichaelBennet

Donald TrumpFacebook likes: 25.7 millionTwitter followers: 70.9 millionInstagram followers: 17.0 million

Ashley Thieme | Slide last updated on: January 13, 2020

Sources: 270 to Win.

11

Preliminary 2020 presidential primary schedule

■ Primary for both parties ■ Democratic primary ■ Republican Primary

February

1 2 3 4

5 6 7 8 9 10 11

12 13 14 15 16 17 18

19 20 21 22 23 24 25

26 27 28 29 30

March April

May June

1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8

9 10 11 12 13 14 15

16 17 18 19 20 21 22

23 24 25 26 27 28 29

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

8 9 10 11 12 13 14

15 16 17 18 19 20 21

22 23 24 25 26 27 28

29 30 31

1 2

3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10 11 12 13 14 15 16

17 18 19 20 21 22 23

24 25 26 27 28 29 30

31

1 2 3 4 5 6

7 8 9 10 11 12 13

14 15 16 17 18 19 20

21 22 23 24 25 26 27

28 29 30

Feb. 3: IAFeb. 11: NHFeb. 22: NV (D)Feb. 29: SC (D)

March 3 - Super Tuesday:AL, American Samoa (D), AR, CA, CO, MA, ME, MN, NC, OK, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA (D), Dems Abroad (D)March 8: Puerto Rico (R)March 10: ID, MI, MS, MO, ND (D), WAMarch 12: Virgin Islands (R)

March 14: Guam (R), Northern Mariana (D), WY (R)March 17: AZ (D), FL, IL, Northern Mariana (R), OHMarch 24: American Samoa (R), GAMarch 27: ND (R)March 29: Puerto Rico (D)

States that have cancelled the Republican primary or caucus: AK, AZ, HI, KS, NV, SC, VA

April 4: AK (D), HI (D), LA, WY (D)April 7: WIApril 28: CT, DE, MD, NY, PA, RI

May 2: KS (D), Guam (D)May 5: INMay 12: NE, WVMay 19: KY, OR

June 2: DC, MT, NJ, NM, SDJune 6: Virgin Islands (D)

Democratic National Convention: July 13-16

Republican National Convention: August 24-27

Conventions

Other declared candidates, as of January 14, 2020

Candidate% voters'

first choice

Michael Bloomberg 5

Andrew Yang 4

Tulsi Gabbard 3

Amy Klobuchar 3

John Delaney 1

Michael Bennet 0

Deval Patrick 0

Someone else 0

12

Early primary state voters prefer Joe Biden for the 2020 Democratic nominee for president

MORNING CONSULT TRACKING POLL OF 17,213 REGISTERED VOTERS

Polling of voters’ first choices in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada

Sanders

Warren

Buttigieg

Biden

Steyer

Presentation Center | Slide last updated on: January 14, 2020

Sources: Morning Consult

33

27

21 19

10

12

0

9

2

15

2/1

22/1

92/2

63/5

3/1

23/1

93/2

64/2

4/9

4/1

64/2

34/3

05/7

5/1

45/2

15/2

86/4

6/1

16/1

86/2

57/2

7/9

7/1

67/2

37/3

08/6

8/1

38/2

08/2

79/3

9/1

09/1

79/2

410/1

10/8

10/1

510/2

210/2

911/5

11/1

211/1

911/2

612/3

12/1

012/1

712/2

412/3

11/7

1/1

4

Roadmap





Slide last updated on: August 29, 2019

Sources: United States Senate: Class II Roster

14

Senators up for re-election in 2020

NH

VT

OH

WVVA

PA

NY

ME

NC

SC

GA

TN*

KY

IN

MI

WI

MN

IL

LATX

OK

ID

NV

OR

WA

CA

AZNM*

CO

WY*

MT ND

SD

IA

UT

FL

AR

MO

MS AL

NE

KS*

AK

HI

Democrats (12) Republicans (22)

Doug Jones (AL) Jeanne Shaheen (NH) Dan Sullivan (AK) Jim Risch (ID) Cindy Hyde-Smith (MS) Lamar Alexander (TN)*

Chris Coons (DE) Cory Booker (NJ) Martha McSally (AZ) Joni Ernst (IA) Steve Daines (MT) Lindsey Graham (SC)

Dick Durbin (IL) Tom Udall (NM)* Tom Cotton (AR) Pat Roberts (KS)* Ben Sasse (NE) John Cornyn (TX)

Ed Markey (MA) Jeff Merkley (OR) Cory Gardner (CO) Mitch McConnell (KY) Thom Tillis (NC) Shelley Moore Capito (WV)

Gary Peters (MI) Jack Reed (RI) David Perdue (GA) Bill Cassidy (LA) Jim Inhofe (OK) Mike Enzi (WY)*

Tina Smith (MN) Mark Warner (VA) Open (GA)** Susan Collins (ME) Mike Rounds (SD)

*Senators not seeking reelection in 2020 **Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) will fill seat before 2020 special election

■ Democratic senator Trump victory

■ Republican senator Clinton victory

Slide last updated on: May 14, 2019

Sources: FEC, NY Times

15

Senators up for re-election in states won by the opposing party’s 2016 presidential candidatePERCENTS INDICATE THE SHARE BY WHICH EITHER TRUMP OR CLINTON WON IN 2016

NY

ME3%

NC4%

SC14%

GA5%

TN 26%

KY30%

LA20%

TX9%

OK36%

ID32%

OR11%

WA

CA

AZ4% NM

8%

CO5%

WY46%

MT20%

SD30%

IA9%

UT

AR27%

MS18%

NE25%

KS21%

AK15%

WI

OH

PA

IN

ND

WV42%

MO

FL

MI0.2%

MN2%

NV

HI

IL17%

AL28%

VA5%

MA27%

RI16%

DE 11%

NJ14%

Gary Peters (D) won in 2014 by 13.3%

Doug Jones (D) won in a 2017 special election by 1.5%

Cory Gardner (R) won in 2014 by 1.9%

Susan Collins (R) won in 2014 by 37.0%

■ Seat held by a Republican ■ Seat held by a Democrat ■ Top five states most likely to flip

16Slide last updated on: September 16, 2019

Sources: National Journal

IN ORDER HOW LIKELY THEY ARE TO FLIP PARTY CONTROL

Hotline’s 2020 Senate power rankings

Hotline: eight GOP-held Senate seats are in the top ten most likely to flip party control

3

6. Iowa — Joni Ernst (R)

7. Michigan — Gary Peters (D)

8. Georgia — David Perdue (R)

9. Texas — John Cornyn (R)

10. Georgia (Special) — Johnny Isakson (R)

1. Alabama:• Incumbent: Doug Jones (D)• Challengers: former Auburn football coach Tommy

Tuberville (R), Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-AL-1)

2. Colorado: • Incumbent: Cory Gardner (R)• Challenger: former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D)

3. Arizona:• Incumbent: Martha McSally (R)• Challengers: Veteran and retired astronaut Mark

Kelly (D)

4. North Carolina:• Incumbent: Thom Tillis (R)• Challengers: Former State Sen. Cal Cunningham

(D), State Sen. Erica Smith (D)

5. Maine: • Incumbent: Susan Collins (R)• Potential challenger: State House Speaker Sara

Gideon (D)

1

2

4

5

8,10

67

9

*List of challengers is not exhaustive

■ Seat held by a Republican ■ Seat held by a Democrat

17Slide last updated on: October 1, 2019

* Incumbent not seeking reelection in 2020Sources: National Journal

IN ORDER HOW LIKELY THEY ARE TO FLIP PARTY CONTROL

Hotline’s 2020 House power rankings

Hotline: thirteen Democrat-held House seats are in the top 20 most likely to flip party control

1. Oklahoma – 5th District: Rep. Kendra Horn (D)

2. South Carolina – 1st District: Rep. Joe Cunningham (D)

3. Texas – 23rd District: Rep. Will Hurd (R)*

4. New Mexico – 2nd District: Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D)

5. Utah – 4th District: Rep Ben McAdams (D)

6. New York – 22nd District: Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D)

7. Minnesota – 7th District: Rep. Collin Peterson (D)

8. New York – 11th District: Rep. Max Rose (D)

9. Pennsylvania – 10th District: Rep. Scott Perry (R)

10. Georgia – 7th District: Rep. Rob Woodall (R)*

11. Iowa – 3rd District: Rep. Cindy Axne (D)

12. Iowa – 1st District: Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D)

13. Maine – 2nd District: Rep. Jared Golden (D)

14. Texas – 24th District: Rep. Kenny Marchant (R)*

15. Texas – 22nd District: Rep. Pete Olson (R)*

16. Virginia – 7th District: Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D)

17. Pennsylvania – 1st District: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R)

18. New York – 24th District: Rep. John Katko (R)

19. Georgia – 6th District: Rep. Lucy McBath (D)

20. Illinois – 14th District: Rep. Lauren Underwood (D)

1

23

4

5

6

18

7

89

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

19

20

7

18

10

15

21

14

3

6

10

7

7

15

28

25

35

5

25

37

20

16

14

13

27

9

13

16

18

11

18

9

23

9

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

Slide last updated on: January 6, 2020

*Data includes retirements; does not include members of Congress seeking a different office or members of Congress who resigned before the electionSources: FiveThirtyEight; National Journal, Ballotpedia.

18

More Republicans than Democrats have announced their retirement before the 2020 electionRetirements from Congress, by election cycle

■ Republicans ■ Democrats

Roadmap





20

The national GOP committees have raised about $92 million more than their Democratic counterparts so far

Sources: FEC

$214,646,881

$110,343,684

$83,613,928

$77,098,637

$60,659,103

$55,605,069

$249,562,681

$352,404,621

RNC

DCCC

DNC

NRCC

NRSC

DSCC

Total Dem

Total GOP

Total receipts by national party PACs

AS OF NOVEMBER 30, 2019

Alice Johnson| Slide last updated on: January 14, 2020

■ Democratic PAC ■ Republican PAC


*Candidate was out-raised by multiple challengers; chart lists the challenger that raised the most during Q3Sources: National Journal Hotline

21

A look at out-raised House incumbents

Thirteen incumbents were out-raised by challengers in Quarter 3, and five incumbents were out-raised by primary challenges

District Cook rating Incumbent Incumbentreceipts

Challenger Challenger receipts

AZ-6 Lean R David Schweikert (R) $136,226 Hiral Tipirneni (D) $332,992

CA-1 Solid R Doug LaMalfa (R) $95,501 Audrey Denney (D) $156,514

CA-21 Lean D TJ Cox (D) $446,281 David Valadao (R) $539,681

CA-43 Solid D Maxine Waters (D) $174,972 Joe Collins (R) $455,626

CA-48 Lean D Harley Rouda (D) $564,432 Michelle Steel (R) $609,799

FL-16 Likely R Vern Buchanan (R) $371,467 Margaret Good (D) $450,334

FL-21 Solid D Lois Frankel (D) $107,372 Laura Loomer (R) $154,311

MI-3 Toss Up Justin Amash (I)* $150,268 Peter Meijer (R) $410,149

PA-10 Toss Up Scott Perry (R) $299,283 Eugene DePasquale (D) $359,799

TX-6 Likely R Ron Wright (R) $106,256 Stephen Daniel (D) $111,009

TX-21 Lean R Chip Roy (R) $574,217 Wendy Davis (D) $940,582

SC-2 Solid R Joe Wilson (R) $200,253 Adair Boroughs (D) $250,678

WA-3 Likely R Jaime Herrera Buetler (R) $454,433 Carolyn Long (D) $691,898

CA-50 Lean R Duncan Hunter (R) $604,605 Carl DeMaio (R) $1,569,929

IA-4 Likely R Steve King (R)* $62,145 Bret Richards (R) $115,079

KS-2 Likely R Steven Watkins (R) $212,651 Jake Laturner (R) $540,122

HI-2 Solid D Tulsi Gabbard (D) $0 Kaiali’i Kahele (D) $102,719

IL-3 Solid D Daniel Lipinski (D)* $177,741 Marie Newman (D) $351,326


Sources: National Journal Hotline

22

Top 10 House freshmen fundraisers

Thirty Democratic freshmen members of Congress raised $500,000 or more in Q3

District Cook rating Incumbent Incumbentreceipts

NY-14 Solid D Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez $1.4 million

CA-45 Lean D Katie Porter $1 million

MI-8 Toss Up Elissa Slotkin $815,922

CA-10 Lean D Josh Harder $757,261

NY-11 Toss Up Max Rose $734,903

MI-13 Solid D Rashida Tlaib $722,213

IL-6 Lean D Sean Casten $714,009

NJ-11 Likely D Mikie Sherrill $712,104

MI-11 Lean D Haley Stevens $667,009

IL-14 Lean D Lizzie Fletcher $640,009

The majority of the top 10 freshmen fundraisers are in competitive districts, including two freshmen in toss up districts: Rep. Slotkin (MI-8)and Rep. Rose (NY-11)

State Cook rating Incumbent Incumbentreceipts

Challenger Challenger receipts

Arizona Toss Up Martha McSally (R) $3,048,996 Mark Kelly (D) $5,602,609

Maine Lean R Susan Collins (R) $2,144,655 Sara Gideon (D) $3,200,005

Michigan Likely D Gary Peters (D) $2,505,229 John James (R) $3,093,931

Iowa* Likely R Joni Ernst (R) $955,966Theresa Greenfield (D) $1,113,762

Eddie Mauro (D) $1,033,972

Kentucky Likely R Mitch McConnell (R) $2,323,902 Amy McGrath (D) $10,754,095

Arkansas Solid R Dan Sullivan (R) $670,078 Al Gross (I) $1,011,219


*Incumbent Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) was out-raised by two challengersSources: National Journal Hotline

23

A look at out-raised Senate incumbents

Six incumbents were out-raised by challengers and 3 incumbents raised over $3 million in Quarter 3

State Cook rating Incumbent Incumbentreceipts

South Carolina Solid R Lindsey Graham (R) $3,290,818

Texas Solid R John Cornyn (R) $3,172,858

Arizona Toss Up Martha McSally (R) $3,048,996

Michigan Likely D Gary Peters (D) $2,505,229

Colorado Toss Up Cory Gardner (R) $2,451,363

Top incumbent fundraisers

Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) was out-raised by retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) for the third consecutive quarter; he also had more cash on hand than McSally

Roadmap





25

One out of 11 governor seats is open going into the 2020 election

*“Open seats” are governorships where incumbent governors are term-limited, they have announced that they are not running for re-election, or lost their primary

Sources: Cook Political Report, 2019

■ Dem. incumbent (3) ■ Dem. open* (1)

■ GOP incumbent (7) ■ GOP open* (1)

Slide last updated on: Dec. 13, 2019

2020 gubernatorial races by incumbent and status

NH

VT

OH

WVVA

PA

NY

ME

NC

SC

GA

TN

KY

IN

MI

WI

MN

IL

LATX

OK

ID

NV

OR

WA

CA

AZNM

CO

WY

MT ND

SD

IA

UT

FL

AR

MO

MS AL

NE

KS

AK

HI

MD

MA

RI

CT

DC

DE

NJ

2020 election toolbox - clark hill plc€¦ · alice johnson | slide last updated on: may 28, 2019...

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