2020 alcohol trends and holiday preview - wine and …...q-4 2019 q-1 2020 q-2 2020 q-3 2020 total...
TRANSCRIPT
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2020 ALCOHOL TRENDS AND HOLIDAY PREVIEW
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 18, 2020
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MICHELLE KORSMOPRESIDENT AND CEO
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DALE STRATTONANALYST
SLY COSMOPOULOSDIRECTOR OF BEVERAGE
MARKETING
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SPIRITS AND WINE CONTINUE TO GAIN MOMENTUM
12 Month Rolling % Change vs. LY
-0.2% -0.3% -0.6%
0.5% 0.5% 0.4%1.0%
1.7% 2.0%2.4%
3.1% 2.9% 2.6%3.2% 3.0% 2.9%
3.3%
4.3% 4.6%5.3%
-2.6% -2.9% -3.1%
-1.7% -1.5% -1.6%-0.9%
-0.4% -0.1%
0.1%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Total Spirits Wine
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3.2% 3.3%5.3%
4.4%
9.0%
13.6%
2.3%
-2.2%
-21.6%
-31.4%-35.0%
-30.0%
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Q-4 2019 Q-1 2020 Q-2 2020 Q-3 2020
Total Spirits Spirits Off Spirits On
-1.7% -0.9%0.1%
-0.9%
3.2%6.1%
-2.1%
-6.3%
-25.1%
-35.8%
-40.0%
-35.0%
-30.0%
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
Q-4 2019 Q-1 2020 Q-2 2020 Q-3 2020
Total Wine Wine Off Wine On
Spirits Wine
THE IMPACT OF SHELTER IN PLACE EVIDENT IN ON-PREMISE TRENDS
12 Month Rolling % Change vs. LY
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6
THE CONSUMER ISN’T READY!
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SPIRITS SHARE BY PREMISE
Month Rolling % Change vs. LY & Internal Projections
18.6% 18.6% 18.6% 17.8% 16.2% 15.0% 14.2% 13.3% 12.6% 12.1% 11.4% 10.6% 9.8%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
On-Premise Off-Premise
2020 Projected2020 Actual
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WINE SHARE BY PREMISE
12 Month Rolling % Change vs. LY & Internal Projections
14.8% 14.8% 14.8% 14.0% 12.6% 11.6% 10.9% 10.2% 9.7% 9.2% 8.5% 8.0% 7.4%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
On-Premise Off-Premise
2020 Projected2020 Actual
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REGIONAL DIFFERENCES EVIDENT
12-Month Rolling On-Premise Percentage Point Change From Previous Month Wine & Spirits Combined
-10.0%
-9.0%
-8.0%
-7.0%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
March April May June July August September
West Midwest Northeast South
September EndingWest -36.6%Midwest -32.4%Northeast -38.5%South -29.3%
-3.3% to -4.3%
-1.6% to -3.5%
-7.8% to -8.5%
-2.8% to -6.3%
-3.0% to -4.6%-3.2% to -4.8%
-6.0% to -9.4%
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12 Month Rolling September 2020 Ending
SPIRITS BY CLASS
1.1%
7.0% 8.6%
2.5% 0.8%
3.4%
14.7%
45.8%
0.3% -1.8% -4.5%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
VODK
A
US W
HISK
EY
TEQU
ILA RUM
CORD
IALS
CANA
DIAN
BRAN
DY/C
OGNA
C
COCK
TAILS GI
N
SCOT
CH IRISH
Share Trend
-
12 Month Rolling September 2020 Ending
SPIRITS BY CLASS ON-PREMISE ONLY
-34.3%
-24.8%
-28.0%
-33.9% -32.7%
-30.4%
-35.7%
-40.1%
-22.3%
-39.0%
-11.7%
-45.0%
-40.0%
-35.0%
-30.0%
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
VODK
A
TEQU
ILA
CORD
IALS
WHI
SKEY
- US
RUM
CANA
DIAN IR
ISH GIN
BRAN
DY/C
OGNA
C
SCOT
CH
COCK
TAILS
Share Trend
+2+1
+4+1
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12 Month Rolling September 2020 Ending
ON-PREMISE SHARE CHANGE SINCE FEBRUARY
-1.2%
1.1%
0.7%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.3%
-0.2%
-0.5%
0.3%
-0.2%
0.2%
VODKA
TEQUILA
CORDIALS
WHISKEY - US
RUM
CANADIAN
IRISH
GIN
BRANDY/COGNAC
SCOTCH
COCKTAILS
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12 Month Rolling February 2020 Ending
SPIRITS BY CLASS ON-PREMISE ONLY PRE COVID
1.2%
8.6%
1.1%2.5%
-0.2%
-3.7%
1.6%
0.1%
1.8%
-5.1%
8.1%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
VODK
A
TEQU
ILA
CORD
IALS
WHI
SKEY
- US
RUM
CANA
DIAN IR
ISH GIN
BRAN
DY/C
OGNA
C
SCOT
CH
COCK
TAILS
Share Trend
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WINE BY VARIETAL
-2.7%
3.9%1.6%
-0.3%
0.6%
7.2% 9.5%
-0.2%
-9.7%
-5.8%
-0.2% -0.3%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
CHAR
DONN
AY
RED
BLEN
DS
CABE
RNET
SAUV
SPAR
KLIN
G
PINOT
GRIG
IO
SPEC
IALT
Y
SAUV
BLAN
C
PINOT
NO
IR
MERL
OT
WHI
TE BL
ENDS
MOSC
ATO
ROSE
Share Trend
12 Month Rolling September 2020 Ending
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WINE BY VARIETAL ON-PREMISE ONLY
-34.6%-38.5%
-35.8%
-33.2%
-36.3%
-33.6%
-35.1% -34.9%
-40.3%
-29.1%
-40.7%
-34.7%
-45.0%
-40.0%
-35.0%
-30.0%
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
SPAR
KLIN
G
CHAR
DONN
AY
CABE
RNET
SAUV
RED
BLEN
DS
PINOT
GRIG
IO
PINOT
NO
IR
SAUV
BLAN
C
WHI
TE BL
ENDS
MERL
OT
SPEC
IALT
YRO
SE
OTHE
R RE
D
Share Trend
+1
12 Month Rolling September 2020 Ending
+3
+2
+1
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12 Month Rolling September 2020 Ending
ON-PREMISE SHARE CHANGE SINCE FEBRUARY
0.2%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
-0.2%
0.1%
-0.1%
0.2%
-0.1%
0.4%
-0.3%
SPARKLING
CHARDONNAY
CABERNET SAUV
RED BLENDS
PINOT GRIGIO
PINOT NOIR
SAUV BLANC
WHITE BLENDS
MERLOT
SPECIALTY
ROSE
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WINE BY VARIETAL ON-PREMISE ONLY PRE COVID
-4.0%
3.6%
-2.5%
-1.9%
-5.5%
-0.6%
2.9%
-7.0%
-10.6%
5.8%
-1.4%
-7.3%
-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
CHAR
DONN
AY
SPAR
KLIN
G
CABE
RNET
SAUV
PINOT
GRIG
IO
RED
BLEN
DS
PINOT
NO
IR
SAUV
BLAN
C
WHI
TE BL
ENDS
MERL
OTRO
SE
SPEC
IALT
Y
TABL
E RED
-OTH
ER
Share Trend
12 Month Rolling February 2020 Ending
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1. Wine & Spirit Categories are Resilient!
2. Regional Differences are Important
3. The Consumer Will Decide When We Re-open
KEY TAKEAWAYS
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THANK YOU!TO LEARN MORE ABOUT SIPSOURCE
CONTACT NICOLE ANDERSON AT [email protected]
MEDIA INQUIRIES: SEND FOLLOW UP QUESTIONS TOMICHAEL BILELLO AT [email protected]
INTERESTED IN BECOMING A WSWA MEMBER? CONTACT CATHERINE MCDANIEL AT [email protected]