ISO PublicISO Public

2020 & 2024 Final LCR Study Results

Stockton Area

Ebrahim Rahimi

Lead Regional Transmission Engineer

Stakeholder Call

April 10, 2019

ISO Public

Stockton Area Transmission System & LCR Subareas

Slide 2

Legend:Bellota230 kV

Weber 60 kV

WeberLCR Sub-Area60 kV

Weber 230 kV

Tesla230 kV

230 kV

Stockton A 60 kV Santa Fe

60 kV

Santa Fe 60 kV

Hazelton JCT 60 kV

Legend: Rio Oso230 kV

Lockeford 60 kV

LockefordLCR Sub-Area

Lodi60 kV

Industrial60 kV

60 kV

Colony60 kV

Victor60 kV

Lockeford 230 kV

Bellota230 kV

230 kV

Wodberg60 kV

Manteca 115 kV

Legend: 115 kV

Kasson 115 kV

Vierra 115 kV

Schulte

Tesla 115 kV

Tesla-Bellota LCR Sub-Area in 2020

Tracy

Salado 115 kV

Ingram Creek 115 kV

G

GWF Tracy Units

Lammers

Melones 115 kV

Bellota 115 kV

Riverbank115 kV

Tulloch115 kV

Stanislaus115 kV

Ripon 115 kV

Riverbank JCT

115 kV

Bellota 230 kV

ISO Public

New major transmission projects

Slide 3

Project Name Expected ISD

Year 2020

Ripon 115 kV Line Apr-19

Stockton A – Weber #1 & #2 60 kV lines Reconductor May-19

Year 2024

Vierra 115 kV Looping Project Feb-23

ISO Public

Power plant changes

Additions:

• No new resource addition

Retirements:

• No new retirements

Slide 4

ISO Public

Stockton Area Overall: Load and Resources

Slide 5

Load (MW) 2020 2024 Generation (MW) 2020 2024

Gross Load 1,270 1,360 Market/ Net Seller/ Battery 497 543

AAEE -16 -52 Solar 1 1

Behind the meter DG 0 0 Wind 0 0

Net Load 1,254 1,308 Muni 137 137

Transmission Losses 22 21 QF 18 18

Pumps 0 0Future preferred resource

and energy storage0 0

Load + Losses +

Pumps1,275 1,329 Total Qualifying Capacity 653 699

ISO Public

Lockeford Sub Area : Requirements

Slide 6

Year Category Limiting Facility ContingencyLCR (MW)

(Deficiency)

2020 BLockeford – Lodi #2 60

kV

Lockeford-Industrial 60 kV

line and Loci CT48 (24)

2020 CLockeford – Lodi #3 60

kV

Lockeford-Industrial and

Lockeford – Lodi #2 60 kV

lines

97 (73)

2024 BLockeford – Lodi #2 60

kV

Lockeford-Industrial 60 kV

line and Loci CT53 (29)

2024 CLockeford – Lodi #3 60

kV

Lockeford-Industrial and

Lockeford – Lodi #2 60 kV

lines

102 (78)

Lockeford

Lodi

Industrial

New HopeColony

Victor

Lodi Jct

Lockeford-Lodi #1

Lockeford-Industrial

Lockeford-Lodi #2

Lockeford-Lodi #3

Legend: 60 kV

X

X

XContingency

Overload

ISO Public

Lockeford Subarea: Load Profiles

Slide 7

ISO Public

Weber Sub Area : Requirements

Slide 8

Year Category Limiting Facility ContingencyLCR (MW)

(Deficiency)

2020 B None NoneNo

requirement

2020 C Stockton A-Weber #3Stockton A-Weber #1 and #2

60 kV lines26

2024 B None NoneNo

requirement

2024 C Stockton A-Weber #3Stockton A-Weber #1 and #2

60 kV lines26

Legend:

Bellota230 kV

Weber 60 kV

WeberLCR Sub-Area

60 kV

230 kV

Stockton A 60 kV

Santa Fe 60 kV

Hazelton JCT 60 kV

XContingency

Overload

X X

ISO Public

Weber Subarea: Load Profiles

Slide 9

ISO Public

Stanislaus Sub Area : Requirements

Slide 10

Year Category Limiting Facility ContingencyLCR (MW)

(Deficiency)

2020 BManteca - Ripon 115 kV

Line

Bellota-Riverbank-Melones 115

kV line and Stanislaus PH unit179

2020 C Same as Category B

2024 BManteca - Ripon 115 kV

Line

Bellota-Riverbank-Melones 115

kV line and Stanislaus PH unit185

2024 C Same as Category B

Manteca 115 kV

Melones 115 kV

Bellota 115 kV

Riverbank115 kV

Tulloch115 kV

Stanislaus115 kV

Ripon 115 kV

Bellota – Riverbank – Melones SW STABellota – Riverbank

Riverbank JCT SW STA - Menteca

Stanislaus – Melones SW STA - Manteca

Stanislaus – Manteca #2

Riverbank JCT

115 kVX

Legend: 115 kV

XContingency

Overload

ISO Public

Stanislaus Subarea: Flow Profiles

Slide 11

ISO PublicSlide 12

Year Category Limiting Facility ContingencyLCR (MW)

(Deficiency)

2020 BTesla – Tracy

115 kV line

Schulte – Lammers 115 kV and GWF

Tracy #3 unit

639

(60 NQC/ 61 Peak)

2020 CSchulte-Kasson-

Manteca 115 kV lines

Schulte – Lammers and

Tesla – Tracy 115 kV lines

1,117

(538 NQC/ 539 Peak)

2024 BTesla – Vierra

115 kV line

Tesla – Tracy 115 kV and GWF Tracy

#3 unit364

2024 C (1)Tesla – Tracy 115 kV

line

Schulte – Lammers and

Tesla – Vierra 115 kV lines

756

(131 NQC/ 132 Peak)

2024 C (2)Tesla – Vierra 115 kV

line

Schulte – Lammers and

Schulte-Kasson-Manteca 115 kV lines

552

(256 NQC/ 257 Peak)

2024 C (total) N/A N/A881

(256 NQC/ 257 Peak)

Tesla - Bellota Sub Area : Requirements

Manteca 115 kV

Legend: 115 kV

Kasson 115 kV

Vierra 115 kV

Schulte

Tesla 115 kV

Tesla-Bellota LCR Sub-Area in 2020

Tracy

Salado 115 kV

Ingram Creek 115 kV

G

GWF Tracy Units

LammersX

X

Melones 115 kV

Bellota 115 kV

Riverbank115 kV

Tulloch115 kV

Stanislaus115 kV

Ripon 115 kV

Riverbank JCT

115 kV

Bellota 230 kV

Tesla-Bellota LCR Sub-Area in 2024

Manteca 115 kV

Kasson 115 kVSchulte

Tesla 115 kV

Tracy

Salado 115 kV

Ingram Creek 115 kV

G

GWF Tracy Units

Lammers

Vierra 115 kVThermal

Energy

Legend: 115 kV

X

X

Melones 115 kV

Bellota 115 kV

Riverbank115 kV

Tulloch115 kV

Stanislaus115 kV

Ripon 115 kV

Riverbank JCT

115 kV

Bellota 230 kV

ISO Public

Tesla-Bellota Subarea: Flow Profiles

Slide 13

ISO Public Slide 14

Subarea2019 2020

Load LCR Load LCR

Lockeford 184 83 (59) 190 97 (73)

Weber 229 21 238 26

Stanislaus N/A 152 N/A 179

Tesla - Bellota 761 673 (291) 848

1,117

(538 NQC/

539 Peak)

Total 1,174 777 (350) 1,275

1,241

(612 NQC/

613 Peak)

LCR increases is mostly due to load increase. The load has a much higher

effectiveness factor than the most effective resource.

N/A=Flow-through area. No defined load pocket.

Changes from 2019 to 2020

ISO Public

Changes from 2023 to 2024

Slide 15

LCR increases is mostly due to load increase. The load has a much higher

effectiveness factor than the most effective resource.

N/A=Flow-through area. No defined load pocket.

Subarea2023 2024

Load LCR Load LCR

Lockeford 198 103 (79) 193 102 (78)

Weber 219 21 238 26

Stanislaus N/A 147 N/A 185

Tesla - Bellota 809 319 (78) 899

881

(256 NQC/

257 Peak)

Total 1,226 439 (157) 1,330

1,009

(334 NQC/

335 Peak)

ISO Public

Stockton Area Total LCR Need

Slide 16

2020 LCR NeedExisting Generation

Capacity Needed (MW)Deficiency (MW) Total MW Need

Category B (Single) 603(84 NQC/

85 Peak)687

Category C (Multiple) 629(612 NQC/

613 Peak)1,241

2024 LCR NeedExisting Generation

Capacity Needed (MW)Deficiency (MW) Total MW Need

Category B (Single) 414 29 443

Category C (Multiple) 675(334 NQC/

335 Peak)1,009