2019 global economic outlook - microsoft · 2019-01-04 · 2019 global economic outlook scott...
TRANSCRIPT
2019 Global Economic Outlook
Scott Anderson, Ph.D., EVP & Chief Economist, Bank of the West
San Joaquin County Hispanic Chamber of Commerce
Business Forecast Conference Stockton, CA
January 3, 2019
Let The Trade War Begin!!!!!
2
Global Economy Losing Momentum
3
Forecasting Deceleration in 2019
4
Positive U.S. Economic Surprises Fading
5
U.S. Labor Market Tight – How Much Tighter Can It Get?
6
20 Million Net New Jobs Created And Still Counting
7
Job Growth Will Slow in 2019
8
Unemployment Rate Starts to Rise By Q4 2019
9
Consumers Keep Spending
10
Real Earnings Growth Not Keeping Pace
11
Slowdown in Consumer Spending Forecast
12
No Investment Spending Boom Visible in the Data
13
Housing Cycle Has Peaked in the U.S. and California
14
Home Price Growth Moderates
15
Treasury Yield Curve Flattest Since 2007
16
Q2 Bounce Expected to be Peak U.S. Growth
17
What’s In Store for Interest Rates? Jerome Powell Takes the Reigns
18
Will Fed Rate Hikes Continue?
19
One Hike or Two More in 2019?
20
Prices for Most Commodities are Already Plunging
21
Bond Market Inflation Expectations Moving Lower
22
Interest Rate Outlook – Higher Then Lower
23
Can We Win a Trade War With China?
24
The Economic Cost Of Trade War Escalation
25
U.S. Equities Prices – Could They Fall Further?
26
Corporate Credit Spreads Start to Rise from Historically Low Levels
27
Disclosures:
The preceding presentation is for educational purposes only. The discussions and information contained within the presentation
should not be construed or used as a specific recommendation for the investment of assets of any customer of Bank of the West
or its affiliates and is not intended as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to purchase or sell any security or financial instrument,
nor does the information constitute advice or an expression of the Bank’s view as to whether a particular security or financial
instrument is appropriate for you and meets your financial objectives. Economic and market forecasts reflect subjective
judgments and assumptions, and unexpected events may occur. Therefore, there can be no assurance that developments will
transpire as forecasted. Please consult with your financial advisor prior to making investment decisions. All investing involves
risk, including loss of principal.
Bank of the West Wealth Management Group offers products and services through Bank of the West and its various affiliates and
subsidiaries. Bank of the West is a wholly owned subsidiary of BNP Paribas.
Scott Anderson - Bank of the West
Executive Vice President
Chief Economist
San Francisco, CA
b a n ko f t h e w e s t . c o m
THANK YOU