2019 dc study external stakeholder committee – minutes...source: derived from bmo capital markets...

46
2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes Date / Time: July 25 th , 2017 1:00pm – 3:00pm Location: Committee Room #1, 2 nd Floor City Hall Attendees: Paul Yeoman (Acting Chair), Lois Langdon, Sandy Levin, Jamie Crich, Bill Veitch, Craig Linton, Anna Lisa Barbon, George Kotsifas, Matt Feldberg, Adam Langmuir, Kevin Edwards, Gregg Barrett, John-Paul Sousa, Edward Soldo, Jennie Ramsay, Jamie Cook, Lynn Duong Purpose: Presentation of draft growth projections for 2019 DC Study Agenda Item Issue / Discussion 1. 2019 DC Study Growth Projections Presentation – Jamie Cook Overview of Presentation Points: Employment Growth London is primarily a self-contained labour force. Approximately 80% of residents live and work in London, which is a high percentage when compared to other cities. City and Region were hit particularly hard by the 2008/2009 economic downturn, but since 2011 the economy has shown signs of steady recovery across most economic sectors. Between 2016 and 2044, the City is forecast to add approximately 48,000 jobs to its employment base. Over the forecast period, the City is forecast to add approximately 24,600,000 square feet of non-residential floor space to its existing inventory. Population Growth The City population base is forecast to steadily increase between 2016 and 2044 by approximately 104,700 persons. The City population is getting older on average as a result of the aging of the “baby boomers”. By 2041, 20% of the City population base will be over 65.

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Page 1: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes

Date / Time: July 25th, 2017 1:00pm – 3:00pm

Location: Committee Room #1, 2nd Floor City Hall

Attendees: Paul Yeoman (Acting Chair), Lois Langdon, Sandy Levin, Jamie Crich, Bill Veitch, Craig Linton, Anna Lisa Barbon, George Kotsifas, Matt Feldberg, Adam Langmuir, Kevin Edwards, Gregg Barrett, John-Paul Sousa, Edward Soldo, Jennie Ramsay, Jamie Cook, Lynn Duong

Purpose: • Presentation of draft growth projections for 2019 DC Study

Agenda Item Issue / Discussion

1. 2019 DC Study Growth Projections Presentation – Jamie Cook

Overview of Presentation Points: Employment Growth • London is primarily a self-contained labour force. Approximately 80% of residents live

and work in London, which is a high percentage when compared to other cities. • City and Region were hit particularly hard by the 2008/2009 economic downturn, but

since 2011 the economy has shown signs of steady recovery across most economic sectors.

• Between 2016 and 2044, the City is forecast to add approximately 48,000 jobs to its

employment base. • Over the forecast period, the City is forecast to add approximately 24,600,000 square

feet of non-residential floor space to its existing inventory. Population Growth • The City population base is forecast to steadily increase between 2016 and 2044 by

approximately 104,700 persons. • The City population is getting older on average as a result of the aging of the “baby

boomers”. By 2041, 20% of the City population base will be over 65.

Page 2: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

• It is projected that population growth from natural increase will be negative after 2031

and net migration will be increasingly the key driver of future population growth. Housing Growth • To accommodate forecast population growth, the City housing base is forecast to

increase by 48,700 households between 2016 and 2044. • Over the long-term forecast period, new housing development is anticipated to

gradually shift to higher proportions of medium- and high-density housing forms. Questions/Comments from Stakeholders:

• Slide 10 – Knowledge based sectors small to medium sized businesses are growing, and capturing an increasing percentage of employment.

• Please explain the negative construction annual employment growth rate identified between 2006 and 2016. o The chart demonstrates employment growth rates for the London CMA relative

to the Provincial growth rates. While a sector may have grown slower than the provincial average and is shown as a negative, this does not necessarily mean that employment growth is negative in the sector.

• Where does this data come from?

o Statistics Canada (2011 census and 2016 released to date), Labour Force data & EMSI data which is obtained through OMAFRA.

• How is manufacturing defined for the construction sector? o It is based on the parent company’s primary activity. For example, Centennial

Windows would be considered manufacturing even though its products are used by the construction sector. Also, ancillary uses such as office support, etc. are also included in the parent company’s primary activity.

• Slide 11 – While out-commuters are shown, are there any numbers on commuters coming into London to work? o This matter is addressed in the report and Watson will provide additional

follow up.

Page 3: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

• What does ‘No Fixed Place of Work’ mean? o This is defined as working at different locations including construction

workers, truck drivers etc.

• Slides 12 to 14 - Commuters that work outside of London but within the commuter shed has grown from 11% (1996) and 15% (2011), a trend to keep an eye on for the future. City of London residents account for 0.5% of the employment base in the western GGH/GTHA commuter shed. As employment there is expected to grow from 2.9 million to 4.2 million in 2044, an additional 7,700 jobs will be held by London residents assuming the 0.5% remains stable.

• A question was asked whether this 0.5% capture rate should be increased. o It was noted that this represents a stable trend and as the GGH/GTHA

economic base is growing at a faster rate than London’s, the proportion of London out-commuters is expected to rise.

• Slide 18 – How is “shovel ready’ classified for industrial lands?

o Employment lands that are zoned, serviced and have the potential to be developed within 6 months. Parcel size and supply choice were looked at as was a comparison to surrounding municipalities.

• Slide 21 – There is an upward limit to the workforce participation rate given the

aging of the baby boomers workforce.

• A question was asked whether there is any data on net migration by age and that Millennial and retirement migration will be big contributors to housing market demands as affordability in the GTA continues to decline. o It was noted that Millennials in London are proportionally higher than GTA

area and migration is anticipated to steadily increase and comprise over 90% of future population growth. The majority of migrants are within the 20-44 age group.

o This matter is addressed in the report and Watson will follow up with specifics related to age demographics for migration.

• Will Millennials live like their parents did? Will current housing and buying trends continue with that generation? o It was noted that affordability will play a big role. o A comment was made that Milennials are purchasing cars at same rate as

parents did, so it is felt that there is some evidence to support they are adopting baby boom preferences.

Page 4: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

• High speed rail – has this been included in the projections and what are impacts? o Although High Speed Rail has the potential to significantly impact London’s

growth future, it is in its preliminary planning stages and insufficient information is available to incorporate impacts into the projection. This matter will be closely monitored in the coming years and may trigger the need for an update to the growth projections and DC Study.

• Slide 25 – Is there evidence to support 65+ aged people working longer and

staying in the workforce? If so, to what order of magnitude and does it affect the DC? o The workforce data includes participation from ages 15-90. It being noted

that ages 19-64 are the major drivers for housing.

• Slide 29 – why the anticipated 10% jump in MDR (Medium Density Residential) construction from the previous projections? o In reviewing actuals up to June 2017, the proportion of MDR construction is

increasing. This trend is forecasted to continue driven by the aging of the population, declining housing affordability, City transit initiatives and Official Plan policy.

• How are assisted living or nursing homes classified in forecast?

o Nursing home is a defined term in the Development Charges by-law. The projections classified units consistent with how CMHC, the DC By-law and building permits are classified.

• Slide 30 – Where do the statistics for PPU’s by age of structure come from?

o The statistics are directly from the 2011 Statistics Canada census.

• Are secondary suites included in the forecast? o Secondary suites are not specifically identified in the housing projection,

however it is anticipated that some housing demand will be accommodated in this form. It was also noted that Secondary suites are currently exempted from paying charges under the Development Charges Act.

• Slide 33 – A comment was made that thought that Work at Home stats would be

forecasted higher as more people may be working from home. o This matter is addressed in the report; Work at Home is expected to

steadily increase over the long-term driven by forecasted growth in the knowledge-based and creative economy. It was noted that the way statistics are reported often results in employment being assigned to other categories.

Page 5: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

• Slide 34 – A member of LHBA asked whether the anticipated retail space is overstated given online shopping, etc. o It was noted that lower non-residential growth is predicted and while the

percentage of new retail will remain stable, the amount is expected to decrease.

• Have you (Watson) had any direct contact with Institutions or have obtained any

background reports? o Available master plans were reviewed but no specific surveys or direct

conversations have been had with institutions.

• Kevin Edwards provided a timeline of next steps including a draft comment deadline of August 11th and an anticipated committee date of October 10th. Members of LDI and LHBA stated that the timeline appears ambitious. It was proposed that the timelines be extended.

• The deadline for comments on the draft report will be extended to September 1st. Responses will be provided from Watson and a follow up meeting will be held the week of September 18th to 22nd.The final report will be completed in mid-October with an anticipated PEC Committee date of November 20th.

2. Development Services Divisional Update • Paul Yeoman provided a brief overview of the organizational changes in

Development Services. A communication about the changes will be sent out to the community in the near future.

Next External Stakeholder Committee Meeting – Tuesday, August 8th 2:00pm – 4:00pm Location: Committee Room #3

Page 6: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

Development Charge Study Growth Projections

Presentation to Development Charges External Stakeholder

Committee

July 25, 2017

Page 7: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

Introduction

1

Page 8: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

Introduction Purpose:

Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. (Watson) retained by the City of London to undertake a Growth Projections Study as background to the City’s upcoming 2019 Development Charges (D.C.) Background Study.

Report represents and update of the City’s 2012 growth projections completed by Altus Group.

2

Page 9: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

Introduction (Cont’d)

Long-Term Growth Forecast (2016 to 2044): Review of macro-economic and demographic trends

influencing residential and non-residential development patterns.

Forecast population growth by age cohort. Anticipated housing growth by structure type (low-,

medium- and high-density). Forecast employment growth by major employment

sector/ category (primary, industrial, commercial, institutional, work at home and no fixed place of work).

Forecast non-residential space needs by industrial, commercial and institutional employment sector.

3

Page 10: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

Macro-Economic Trends

4

Page 11: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

Annual Real GDP Growth, Ontario and Canada

5

2.8%

2.2%

0.5%

-2.5%

3.0%

2.5%

1.7%2.0%

2.5%

1.1%1.4%

2.1%2.4%

2.0%

0.0%

-3.5%

3.2%

1.8%1.5%

1.3%

2.7%2.5% 2.6%

2.3%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (f)

Ann

ual R

eal G

DP

Gro

wth

(%)

Canada Ontario

Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. Note: 2017 is a forecast.

Page 12: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

Change in Employment by Sector in Ontario, 2006 to 2015

6

‐220,000 ‐170,000 ‐120,000 ‐70,000 ‐20,000 30,000 80,000 130,000

Manufacturing

Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting

Management of companies and enterprises

Utilities

Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services

Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction

Information and cultural industries

Arts, entertainment and recreation

Wholesale trade

Real estate and rental and leasing

Other services (except public administration)

Public administration

Transportation and warehousing

Finance and insurance

Retail trade

Educational services

Construction

Accommodation and food services

Professional, scientific and technical services

Health care and social assistance

Change in Employment

Sector

Source: Derived  from EMSI data

Page 13: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

Total Employment Within Ontario, 2015

7

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000

Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction

Management of companies and enterprises

Utilities

Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting

Arts, entertainment and recreation

Information and cultural industries

Real estate and rental and leasing

Other services (except public administration)

Transportation and warehousing

Finance and insurance

Wholesale trade

Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services

Public administration

Construction

Accommodation and food services

Educational services

Professional, scientific and technical services

Manufacturing

Health care and social assistance

Retail trade

Total EmploymentSource: Derived  from EMSI data

Page 14: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

Manufacturing Labour Force Employment in Ontario, 2000 to Early 2017

8

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

Labo

ur F

orce

Em

ploy

men

t in

Man

ufac

turin

g(0

00s)

YearSource: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, Table 282-0088

Page 15: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

Local/Regional Economic Trends

9

Page 16: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

Annual Employment Growth Rate – London CMA Relative to Ontario, 2006 to 2016

10

‐3.0% ‐2.0% ‐1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%

Transportation and warehousing

Business, building and other support services

Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing

Health care and social assistance

Construction

Wholesale and retail trade

Manufacturing

Other services (except public administration)

Information, culture and recreation

Accommodation and food services

Professional, scientific and technical services

Educational services

Public administration

Agriculture

Annual Average Growth

Sector

City of London London CMA

Competitive Share Annual Employment (Growth Rate In Relation to Ontario) 2006‐2016

Page 17: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

City of London Labour Force Growth, 1996 to 2016

11

77% 77% 76% 75%75%

6%6%

5% 6%6%

10%9%

9% 9%8%

7%9%

9% 10%

11%

154,000 165,500

179,100 178,700

198,200

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Tota

l Em

ploy

men

t

YearLive/Work Work at Home Commute Out of London No Fixed Place of Work

Source: Derived from Statistics Canada Labour Force Data, Place of Work. Employment data by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 2001-2011. 2016 is an estimate by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

Page 18: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

City of London Commuting Trends, 1996 to 2011

12

15%

82%

3%

Where London Residents Commute To, 2011

GTHA/GGH Primary Commutershed Other

11%

80%

9%

Where London Residents Commute To, 1996

GTHA/GGH Primary Commutershed Other

Page 19: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

City of London Commuting Trend, 1996 to 2011 (Cont’d)

As of 2011, the employment base within the City of London primary and secondary commuter-shed was 2.9 million.

As of 2011, City of London commuters comprise approximately 0.5% of this employment base, representing approximately 15,300 jobs.

13

Page 20: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

City of London Commuting Trends, 1996 to 2011 (Cont’d)

The employment base within the City of London commuter-shed (excluding the City of London) is forecast to increase from approximately 2.9 million in 2011 to 4.2 million in 2044.

Assuming that the proportion of City of London commuters remains relatively stable at 0.5%, this represents an increase of approximately 7,700 jobs held by City of London residents.

14

Page 21: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

City of London – Drivers of Economic Growth Strategic Location Centrally located within Ontario’s industrial

heartland in Southern Ontario along the Highway 401 corridor.

Proximity to major U.S. markets to the west via Highway 401 and Highway 402.

Proximity to Kitchener/Waterloo and the GTHA employment market/labour force to the east.

15

Page 22: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

City of London – Drivers of Economic Growth (Cont’d)

16

Health care and social assistance

Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing

Manufacturing

Business, building and other support services

Transportation and warehousing

Public administration

Educational services

Other services (except public administration)

Professional, scientific and technical services

Construction

Information, culture and recreation

Wholesale and retail trade

-10.00

-8.00

-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

-10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%

Loca

tion

Quo

tient

to O

ntar

io

Average Annual Employment Growth (2006-2016)Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.Data source: Location quotients based on comparison to Ontario derived from EMSI DataEmployment growth 2006-2016 by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

Page 23: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

City of London – Drivers of Economic Growth (Cont’d)

The City of London economic base continues to diversify.

17

City of London Employment Base by Major Category

21%

24%

55%

Goods ProducingRetail/Accommodation & FoodRemaining Service/Knowledge‐based Sectors

17%

23%60%

Goods ProducingRetail/Accommodation & FoodRemaining Service/Knowledge-based Sectors

2001 2016

Page 24: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

City of London – Drivers of Economic Growth (Cont’d)

Competitive Industrial Development Market Competitively priced employment lands and

competitive development costs. The City of London has a healthy supply of

designated vacant and large (greater than 4 ha) “shovel-ready” employment land parcels.

18

Page 25: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

City of London – Drivers of Economic Growth (Cont’d)

Quality of Life Key factor influencing the residential location decision

of homebuyers as well as new/existing businesses. The City of London has a reputation as a vibrant,

growing, affordable, low-crime location in which to live in Ontario, with access to a wide range of recreational opportunities within the City and surrounding countryside.

19

Page 26: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

Growth Forecast

20

Page 27: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

City of London Labour Force Forecast, 2016 to 2044

21

178,000 194,000 196,000

213,000 218,000 222,000 227,000 237,000 250,000 258,000

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2044

Parti

cipa

tion

Rat

e

Tota

l Lab

our F

orce

YearLabour Force

Source: Derived from Statistics Canada Employment data for 2001-2016, by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. Projections from 2021-2044 by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

Page 28: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

Forecast Population Growth Scenarios, 2016 to 2041

22

407,900 421,200

434,500 441,800 449,100 454,000

417,900 446,200

474,500 501,800

529,100 549,000

394,300412,900

434,500454,500

472,800489,100 499,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2044

Popu

latio

n

YearLow Population Growth Scenario High Population Growth Scenario Reference Population Growth Scenario

Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

Population figures include an upward adjustment for the net Census undercount of 2.73%.

Page 29: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

Components of Population Growth, 2011 to 2041

23

15,900 13,900

18,100 18,600

21,600 20,100

18,200 16,300

(5,000)

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2001-2006 2006-2011 2011-2016 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2031-2036 2036-2041

Popu

latio

n In

crea

se

Time Period

Natural Increase Net Migration

Source: Derived from Statistics Canada, Demography Division. 2006-2011 estimated by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., includes Census undercount of approximately 2.73%. 2016 Population increase is an estimate by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

Page 30: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

City of London Forecast Population, 2016 to 2044

24

395,600

415,600

436,400

455,600

474,700

494,000

336,500

362,200

376,200

394,300

412,900

434,500

454,500

472,800 489,100

499,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2044

Tota

l Pop

ulat

ion

YearLondon 2012 Forecast London 2017 Forecast

Source: London 2012 forecast is based on Altus Employment, Population, Housing and Non-Residential Construction Projections, City of London, Ontario, 2011 Update.London 2017 forecast by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. Both forecasts include an undercount of 2.7%.

Page 31: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

City of London Population by Age Forecast, 2011 to 2044

25

24% 23% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 21% 21%

22% 22% 24% 24% 23% 23% 22% 23% 23%

15% 13% 12% 12% 13% 14% 14% 13% 13%

15% 15% 14% 12% 11% 11% 12% 13% 13%

17% 20% 22% 23% 22% 21% 19% 18% 18%

7% 7% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2044

Perc

enta

ge o

f Pop

ulat

ion

Year

75+55-7445-5435-4420-340-19

Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2014. Includes an undercount of approximately 4%

Page 32: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

City of London Household Forecast, 2016 to 2044

26

1,600 1,550 1,600

1,9002,000

1,800 1,900

1,800

1,600 1,600

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Ann

ual H

ousi

ng G

row

th

Time PeriodHistorical ForecastSource: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

Page 33: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

City of London Forecast Total Housing Growth 2016 to 2044

27

145,520

153,600

163,300

174,000

184,100

193,500

202,000

210,800

153,600

163,100

173,000

182,000

191,300

200,200

208,300 213,200

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

170,000

180,000

190,000

200,000

210,000

220,000

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2044

Tota

l Hou

seho

lds

Year

London 2012 Forecast London 2017 Forecast

Source: London 2012 forecast is based on Altus Employment, Population, Housing and Non-Residential Construction Projections, City of London, Ontario, 2011Update. London 2017 forecast by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

Page 34: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

City of London Forecast Housing Growth by Structure Type, 2016 to 2044

28

67%

40%

72%

35%

2%

41%

3%

20%

31%19%

25%

45%

45% 43% 40% 38% 33%26%

25% 27%27% 29%

30%

24%

30% 30% 33% 33% 37%49%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1996-2001 2001-2006 2006-2011 2011-2016 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2031-2036 2036-2041 2041-2044

Hou

sing

Mix

HistoricalLow Density Medium Density High Density

Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

Forecast

Page 35: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

City of London Forecast Housing Growth by Structure Type, 2011 to 2041

29

51%

16%

33%

2012 Forecast Housing Mix by Structure Type

Low density Medium density High density

39%

26%

35%

2017 Forecast Housing Mix by Structure Type

Low density Medium density High density

Page 36: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

City of London Average Persons Per Unit (PPU) in New Households

3.14 3.11 3.12 3.13 3.102.91

2.512.27

1.902.06

2.47 2.552.72

2.38

1.77 1.69 1.60 1.68 1.68 1.65 1.60

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 20-25 25-35 35+

Pers

ons

Per D

wel

ling

Age of Dwelling Singles and Semi-Detached Multiples Apartments

30

Density Type Low density Medium density High density20-year Average 3.12 2.11 1.68

New Unit PPUSource: Derived from Statistics Canada, 2011 Census

Page 37: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

Forecast Employment Growth Scenarios, 2016 to 2041

31

213,300220,100

226,000231,800 233,800 235,800 237,700

225,500

239,400253,200

265,500277,800

287,500

179,300

193,500 195,900

222,800

233,300

242,500 250,100 256,800

261,300

150,000

180,000

210,000

240,000

270,000

300,000

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2044

Empl

oym

ent

YearLow Population Growth Scenario High Population Growth Scenario Reference Population Growth Scenario

Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

Page 38: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

City of London Employment Forecast Comparison, 2011 to 2044

32

179,

300

193,

500

195,

900

213,

300

223,

400

233,

300

242,

500

250,

100

256,

800

261,

300

179,

300

193,

500

189,

700

203,

200

211,

600

219,

100

229,

300

244,

000

259,

600

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2044

Tota

l Em

ploy

men

t

Year2017 Forecast 2012 Forecast

Notes: 2017 forecast is Reference Employment Growth Scenario. No Fixed Place of Work employment is included in figure. Source: 2017 forecast is a forecast by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 2012 forecast is derived from the City of London, Employment, Population, Housing and Non-Residential Projections prepared by Altus Group, June 2012.

Page 39: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

City of London Employment Forecast by Major Sector, 2011 to 2044

33

2011 2021 2031 2041 20446% 9% 9% 8% 8%14% 18% 18% 18% 17%27% 36% 36% 36% 36%0% 0% 0% 0% 0%6% 10% 10% 10% 10%No Fixed Place of Work

Employment SectorWork at HomeIndustrialCommercial/ Population RelatedInstitutional

179,300193,500 195,900

211,700 220,100 229,400 239,000247,200 253,500 259,600

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Mid 2001 Mid 2006 Mid 2011 Mid 2016 Mid 2021 Mid 2026 Mid 2031 Mid 2036 Mid 2041 Mid 2044

Tota

l Em

ploy

men

t

Period Work at Home Industrial Office Retail

Institutional No Fixed Place of Work Employment Activity Rate

Note: Reference Employment Growth Scenario.Source: Statistics Canada, 2001, 2006 and 2011 Census. 2016 to 2044 is a forecast by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

Page 40: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

City of London, Non-Residential GFA Forecast, 2011 to 2044

34

29% 35%24% 22% 19% 11%

9% 8%

9%9% 12%

6%

18%24%

22%21% 29%

16%

44% 33%

44%

48%40%

53%

1,059,000 1,028,000951,000

805,000693,000

656,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2031-2036 2036-2041 2041-2044

Ann

ual G

FA (s

q.ft.

) Gro

wth

PeriodIndustrial Office Retail Institutional

Note: Based on Reference Growth Scenario. Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

Page 41: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

Conclusions

35

Page 42: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

City of London D.C. Growth Forecast Update - Preliminary Conclusions Population Growth

The City of London population base is forecast to steadily increase between 2016 and 2044 by approximately 104,700 persons.

This represents an annual population growth rate of 0.8%, which is modestly lower than the provincial average long-term population growth rate.

The City of London population is getting older on average as a result of the aging of the “baby boomers.” By 2041, 20% of the City’s population base will be over 65 years of age.

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Page 43: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

City of London D.C. Growth Forecast Update - Preliminary Conclusions (Cont’d)

Housing Growth To accommodate forecast population growth, the City

of London housing base is forecast to increase by 48,700 households between 2016 and 2044.

Over the long-term forecast period, new housing development is anticipated to gradually shift from low-density to medium- and high-density housing forms.

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Page 44: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

City of London D.C. Growth Forecast Update - Preliminary Conclusions (Cont’d)

Employment Growth The City of London and surrounding regional

economy were hit particularly hard by the 2008/2009 economic downturn.

Since 2011, however, the City of London economy has shown signs of a steady recovery across most economic sectors.

Between 2011 and 2016, the City of London labour force levels rose by approximately 19,500 persons across a broad range of employment sectors.

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Page 45: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

City of London D.C. Growth Forecast Update - Preliminary Conclusions (Cont’d)

Employment Growth (Cont’d)

Between 2016 and 2044, the City of London is forecast to add approximately 44,000 jobs to its employment base.

Forecast employment growth is anticipated to be largely accommodated in commercial and institutional sectors and, to a lesser extent, industrial sectors.

Work at Home and No Fixed Place of Work employment is anticipated to comprise just under 20% of total employment between 2016 and 2044.

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Page 46: 2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes...Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

City of London D.C. Growth Forecast Update - Preliminary Conclusions (Cont’d)

Non-Residential Floor Area Increase Forecast growth in non-residential gross floor area

has been derived by multiplying forecast land-based employment growth by an estimated average floor space per worker (FSW) by major sector.

Over the forecast period, the City of London is forecast to add approximately 23,400,000 sq.ft. of non-residential floor space (GFA) to its existing non-residential building space inventory.

40