2019 dc study external stakeholder committee – minutes...source: derived from bmo capital markets...
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2019 DC Study External Stakeholder Committee – Minutes
Date / Time: July 25th, 2017 1:00pm – 3:00pm
Location: Committee Room #1, 2nd Floor City Hall
Attendees: Paul Yeoman (Acting Chair), Lois Langdon, Sandy Levin, Jamie Crich, Bill Veitch, Craig Linton, Anna Lisa Barbon, George Kotsifas, Matt Feldberg, Adam Langmuir, Kevin Edwards, Gregg Barrett, John-Paul Sousa, Edward Soldo, Jennie Ramsay, Jamie Cook, Lynn Duong
Purpose: • Presentation of draft growth projections for 2019 DC Study
Agenda Item Issue / Discussion
1. 2019 DC Study Growth Projections Presentation – Jamie Cook
Overview of Presentation Points: Employment Growth • London is primarily a self-contained labour force. Approximately 80% of residents live
and work in London, which is a high percentage when compared to other cities. • City and Region were hit particularly hard by the 2008/2009 economic downturn, but
since 2011 the economy has shown signs of steady recovery across most economic sectors.
• Between 2016 and 2044, the City is forecast to add approximately 48,000 jobs to its
employment base. • Over the forecast period, the City is forecast to add approximately 24,600,000 square
feet of non-residential floor space to its existing inventory. Population Growth • The City population base is forecast to steadily increase between 2016 and 2044 by
approximately 104,700 persons. • The City population is getting older on average as a result of the aging of the “baby
boomers”. By 2041, 20% of the City population base will be over 65.
• It is projected that population growth from natural increase will be negative after 2031
and net migration will be increasingly the key driver of future population growth. Housing Growth • To accommodate forecast population growth, the City housing base is forecast to
increase by 48,700 households between 2016 and 2044. • Over the long-term forecast period, new housing development is anticipated to
gradually shift to higher proportions of medium- and high-density housing forms. Questions/Comments from Stakeholders:
• Slide 10 – Knowledge based sectors small to medium sized businesses are growing, and capturing an increasing percentage of employment.
• Please explain the negative construction annual employment growth rate identified between 2006 and 2016. o The chart demonstrates employment growth rates for the London CMA relative
to the Provincial growth rates. While a sector may have grown slower than the provincial average and is shown as a negative, this does not necessarily mean that employment growth is negative in the sector.
• Where does this data come from?
o Statistics Canada (2011 census and 2016 released to date), Labour Force data & EMSI data which is obtained through OMAFRA.
• How is manufacturing defined for the construction sector? o It is based on the parent company’s primary activity. For example, Centennial
Windows would be considered manufacturing even though its products are used by the construction sector. Also, ancillary uses such as office support, etc. are also included in the parent company’s primary activity.
• Slide 11 – While out-commuters are shown, are there any numbers on commuters coming into London to work? o This matter is addressed in the report and Watson will provide additional
follow up.
• What does ‘No Fixed Place of Work’ mean? o This is defined as working at different locations including construction
workers, truck drivers etc.
• Slides 12 to 14 - Commuters that work outside of London but within the commuter shed has grown from 11% (1996) and 15% (2011), a trend to keep an eye on for the future. City of London residents account for 0.5% of the employment base in the western GGH/GTHA commuter shed. As employment there is expected to grow from 2.9 million to 4.2 million in 2044, an additional 7,700 jobs will be held by London residents assuming the 0.5% remains stable.
• A question was asked whether this 0.5% capture rate should be increased. o It was noted that this represents a stable trend and as the GGH/GTHA
economic base is growing at a faster rate than London’s, the proportion of London out-commuters is expected to rise.
• Slide 18 – How is “shovel ready’ classified for industrial lands?
o Employment lands that are zoned, serviced and have the potential to be developed within 6 months. Parcel size and supply choice were looked at as was a comparison to surrounding municipalities.
• Slide 21 – There is an upward limit to the workforce participation rate given the
aging of the baby boomers workforce.
• A question was asked whether there is any data on net migration by age and that Millennial and retirement migration will be big contributors to housing market demands as affordability in the GTA continues to decline. o It was noted that Millennials in London are proportionally higher than GTA
area and migration is anticipated to steadily increase and comprise over 90% of future population growth. The majority of migrants are within the 20-44 age group.
o This matter is addressed in the report and Watson will follow up with specifics related to age demographics for migration.
• Will Millennials live like their parents did? Will current housing and buying trends continue with that generation? o It was noted that affordability will play a big role. o A comment was made that Milennials are purchasing cars at same rate as
parents did, so it is felt that there is some evidence to support they are adopting baby boom preferences.
• High speed rail – has this been included in the projections and what are impacts? o Although High Speed Rail has the potential to significantly impact London’s
growth future, it is in its preliminary planning stages and insufficient information is available to incorporate impacts into the projection. This matter will be closely monitored in the coming years and may trigger the need for an update to the growth projections and DC Study.
• Slide 25 – Is there evidence to support 65+ aged people working longer and
staying in the workforce? If so, to what order of magnitude and does it affect the DC? o The workforce data includes participation from ages 15-90. It being noted
that ages 19-64 are the major drivers for housing.
• Slide 29 – why the anticipated 10% jump in MDR (Medium Density Residential) construction from the previous projections? o In reviewing actuals up to June 2017, the proportion of MDR construction is
increasing. This trend is forecasted to continue driven by the aging of the population, declining housing affordability, City transit initiatives and Official Plan policy.
• How are assisted living or nursing homes classified in forecast?
o Nursing home is a defined term in the Development Charges by-law. The projections classified units consistent with how CMHC, the DC By-law and building permits are classified.
• Slide 30 – Where do the statistics for PPU’s by age of structure come from?
o The statistics are directly from the 2011 Statistics Canada census.
• Are secondary suites included in the forecast? o Secondary suites are not specifically identified in the housing projection,
however it is anticipated that some housing demand will be accommodated in this form. It was also noted that Secondary suites are currently exempted from paying charges under the Development Charges Act.
• Slide 33 – A comment was made that thought that Work at Home stats would be
forecasted higher as more people may be working from home. o This matter is addressed in the report; Work at Home is expected to
steadily increase over the long-term driven by forecasted growth in the knowledge-based and creative economy. It was noted that the way statistics are reported often results in employment being assigned to other categories.
• Slide 34 – A member of LHBA asked whether the anticipated retail space is overstated given online shopping, etc. o It was noted that lower non-residential growth is predicted and while the
percentage of new retail will remain stable, the amount is expected to decrease.
• Have you (Watson) had any direct contact with Institutions or have obtained any
background reports? o Available master plans were reviewed but no specific surveys or direct
conversations have been had with institutions.
• Kevin Edwards provided a timeline of next steps including a draft comment deadline of August 11th and an anticipated committee date of October 10th. Members of LDI and LHBA stated that the timeline appears ambitious. It was proposed that the timelines be extended.
• The deadline for comments on the draft report will be extended to September 1st. Responses will be provided from Watson and a follow up meeting will be held the week of September 18th to 22nd.The final report will be completed in mid-October with an anticipated PEC Committee date of November 20th.
2. Development Services Divisional Update • Paul Yeoman provided a brief overview of the organizational changes in
Development Services. A communication about the changes will be sent out to the community in the near future.
Next External Stakeholder Committee Meeting – Tuesday, August 8th 2:00pm – 4:00pm Location: Committee Room #3
Development Charge Study Growth Projections
Presentation to Development Charges External Stakeholder
Committee
July 25, 2017
Introduction
1
Introduction Purpose:
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. (Watson) retained by the City of London to undertake a Growth Projections Study as background to the City’s upcoming 2019 Development Charges (D.C.) Background Study.
Report represents and update of the City’s 2012 growth projections completed by Altus Group.
2
Introduction (Cont’d)
Long-Term Growth Forecast (2016 to 2044): Review of macro-economic and demographic trends
influencing residential and non-residential development patterns.
Forecast population growth by age cohort. Anticipated housing growth by structure type (low-,
medium- and high-density). Forecast employment growth by major employment
sector/ category (primary, industrial, commercial, institutional, work at home and no fixed place of work).
Forecast non-residential space needs by industrial, commercial and institutional employment sector.
3
Macro-Economic Trends
4
Annual Real GDP Growth, Ontario and Canada
5
2.8%
2.2%
0.5%
-2.5%
3.0%
2.5%
1.7%2.0%
2.5%
1.1%1.4%
2.1%2.4%
2.0%
0.0%
-3.5%
3.2%
1.8%1.5%
1.3%
2.7%2.5% 2.6%
2.3%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (f)
Ann
ual R
eal G
DP
Gro
wth
(%)
Canada Ontario
Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. Note: 2017 is a forecast.
Change in Employment by Sector in Ontario, 2006 to 2015
6
‐220,000 ‐170,000 ‐120,000 ‐70,000 ‐20,000 30,000 80,000 130,000
Manufacturing
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting
Management of companies and enterprises
Utilities
Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services
Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction
Information and cultural industries
Arts, entertainment and recreation
Wholesale trade
Real estate and rental and leasing
Other services (except public administration)
Public administration
Transportation and warehousing
Finance and insurance
Retail trade
Educational services
Construction
Accommodation and food services
Professional, scientific and technical services
Health care and social assistance
Change in Employment
Sector
Source: Derived from EMSI data
Total Employment Within Ontario, 2015
7
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000
Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction
Management of companies and enterprises
Utilities
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting
Arts, entertainment and recreation
Information and cultural industries
Real estate and rental and leasing
Other services (except public administration)
Transportation and warehousing
Finance and insurance
Wholesale trade
Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services
Public administration
Construction
Accommodation and food services
Educational services
Professional, scientific and technical services
Manufacturing
Health care and social assistance
Retail trade
Total EmploymentSource: Derived from EMSI data
Manufacturing Labour Force Employment in Ontario, 2000 to Early 2017
8
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
Labo
ur F
orce
Em
ploy
men
t in
Man
ufac
turin
g(0
00s)
YearSource: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, Table 282-0088
Local/Regional Economic Trends
9
Annual Employment Growth Rate – London CMA Relative to Ontario, 2006 to 2016
10
‐3.0% ‐2.0% ‐1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%
Transportation and warehousing
Business, building and other support services
Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing
Health care and social assistance
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade
Manufacturing
Other services (except public administration)
Information, culture and recreation
Accommodation and food services
Professional, scientific and technical services
Educational services
Public administration
Agriculture
Annual Average Growth
Sector
City of London London CMA
Competitive Share Annual Employment (Growth Rate In Relation to Ontario) 2006‐2016
City of London Labour Force Growth, 1996 to 2016
11
77% 77% 76% 75%75%
6%6%
5% 6%6%
10%9%
9% 9%8%
7%9%
9% 10%
11%
154,000 165,500
179,100 178,700
198,200
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
Tota
l Em
ploy
men
t
YearLive/Work Work at Home Commute Out of London No Fixed Place of Work
Source: Derived from Statistics Canada Labour Force Data, Place of Work. Employment data by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 2001-2011. 2016 is an estimate by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
City of London Commuting Trends, 1996 to 2011
12
15%
82%
3%
Where London Residents Commute To, 2011
GTHA/GGH Primary Commutershed Other
11%
80%
9%
Where London Residents Commute To, 1996
GTHA/GGH Primary Commutershed Other
City of London Commuting Trend, 1996 to 2011 (Cont’d)
As of 2011, the employment base within the City of London primary and secondary commuter-shed was 2.9 million.
As of 2011, City of London commuters comprise approximately 0.5% of this employment base, representing approximately 15,300 jobs.
13
City of London Commuting Trends, 1996 to 2011 (Cont’d)
The employment base within the City of London commuter-shed (excluding the City of London) is forecast to increase from approximately 2.9 million in 2011 to 4.2 million in 2044.
Assuming that the proportion of City of London commuters remains relatively stable at 0.5%, this represents an increase of approximately 7,700 jobs held by City of London residents.
14
City of London – Drivers of Economic Growth Strategic Location Centrally located within Ontario’s industrial
heartland in Southern Ontario along the Highway 401 corridor.
Proximity to major U.S. markets to the west via Highway 401 and Highway 402.
Proximity to Kitchener/Waterloo and the GTHA employment market/labour force to the east.
15
City of London – Drivers of Economic Growth (Cont’d)
16
Health care and social assistance
Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing
Manufacturing
Business, building and other support services
Transportation and warehousing
Public administration
Educational services
Other services (except public administration)
Professional, scientific and technical services
Construction
Information, culture and recreation
Wholesale and retail trade
-10.00
-8.00
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
-10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%
Loca
tion
Quo
tient
to O
ntar
io
Average Annual Employment Growth (2006-2016)Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.Data source: Location quotients based on comparison to Ontario derived from EMSI DataEmployment growth 2006-2016 by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
City of London – Drivers of Economic Growth (Cont’d)
The City of London economic base continues to diversify.
17
City of London Employment Base by Major Category
21%
24%
55%
Goods ProducingRetail/Accommodation & FoodRemaining Service/Knowledge‐based Sectors
17%
23%60%
Goods ProducingRetail/Accommodation & FoodRemaining Service/Knowledge-based Sectors
2001 2016
City of London – Drivers of Economic Growth (Cont’d)
Competitive Industrial Development Market Competitively priced employment lands and
competitive development costs. The City of London has a healthy supply of
designated vacant and large (greater than 4 ha) “shovel-ready” employment land parcels.
18
City of London – Drivers of Economic Growth (Cont’d)
Quality of Life Key factor influencing the residential location decision
of homebuyers as well as new/existing businesses. The City of London has a reputation as a vibrant,
growing, affordable, low-crime location in which to live in Ontario, with access to a wide range of recreational opportunities within the City and surrounding countryside.
19
Growth Forecast
20
City of London Labour Force Forecast, 2016 to 2044
21
178,000 194,000 196,000
213,000 218,000 222,000 227,000 237,000 250,000 258,000
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2044
Parti
cipa
tion
Rat
e
Tota
l Lab
our F
orce
YearLabour Force
Source: Derived from Statistics Canada Employment data for 2001-2016, by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. Projections from 2021-2044 by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Forecast Population Growth Scenarios, 2016 to 2041
22
407,900 421,200
434,500 441,800 449,100 454,000
417,900 446,200
474,500 501,800
529,100 549,000
394,300412,900
434,500454,500
472,800489,100 499,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2044
Popu
latio
n
YearLow Population Growth Scenario High Population Growth Scenario Reference Population Growth Scenario
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Population figures include an upward adjustment for the net Census undercount of 2.73%.
Components of Population Growth, 2011 to 2041
23
15,900 13,900
18,100 18,600
21,600 20,100
18,200 16,300
(5,000)
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2001-2006 2006-2011 2011-2016 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2031-2036 2036-2041
Popu
latio
n In
crea
se
Time Period
Natural Increase Net Migration
Source: Derived from Statistics Canada, Demography Division. 2006-2011 estimated by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., includes Census undercount of approximately 2.73%. 2016 Population increase is an estimate by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
City of London Forecast Population, 2016 to 2044
24
395,600
415,600
436,400
455,600
474,700
494,000
336,500
362,200
376,200
394,300
412,900
434,500
454,500
472,800 489,100
499,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2044
Tota
l Pop
ulat
ion
YearLondon 2012 Forecast London 2017 Forecast
Source: London 2012 forecast is based on Altus Employment, Population, Housing and Non-Residential Construction Projections, City of London, Ontario, 2011 Update.London 2017 forecast by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. Both forecasts include an undercount of 2.7%.
City of London Population by Age Forecast, 2011 to 2044
25
24% 23% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 21% 21%
22% 22% 24% 24% 23% 23% 22% 23% 23%
15% 13% 12% 12% 13% 14% 14% 13% 13%
15% 15% 14% 12% 11% 11% 12% 13% 13%
17% 20% 22% 23% 22% 21% 19% 18% 18%
7% 7% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 12%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2044
Perc
enta
ge o
f Pop
ulat
ion
Year
75+55-7445-5435-4420-340-19
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2014. Includes an undercount of approximately 4%
City of London Household Forecast, 2016 to 2044
26
1,600 1,550 1,600
1,9002,000
1,800 1,900
1,800
1,600 1,600
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Ann
ual H
ousi
ng G
row
th
Time PeriodHistorical ForecastSource: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
City of London Forecast Total Housing Growth 2016 to 2044
27
145,520
153,600
163,300
174,000
184,100
193,500
202,000
210,800
153,600
163,100
173,000
182,000
191,300
200,200
208,300 213,200
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
160,000
170,000
180,000
190,000
200,000
210,000
220,000
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2044
Tota
l Hou
seho
lds
Year
London 2012 Forecast London 2017 Forecast
Source: London 2012 forecast is based on Altus Employment, Population, Housing and Non-Residential Construction Projections, City of London, Ontario, 2011Update. London 2017 forecast by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
City of London Forecast Housing Growth by Structure Type, 2016 to 2044
28
67%
40%
72%
35%
2%
41%
3%
20%
31%19%
25%
45%
45% 43% 40% 38% 33%26%
25% 27%27% 29%
30%
24%
30% 30% 33% 33% 37%49%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1996-2001 2001-2006 2006-2011 2011-2016 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2031-2036 2036-2041 2041-2044
Hou
sing
Mix
HistoricalLow Density Medium Density High Density
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Forecast
City of London Forecast Housing Growth by Structure Type, 2011 to 2041
29
51%
16%
33%
2012 Forecast Housing Mix by Structure Type
Low density Medium density High density
39%
26%
35%
2017 Forecast Housing Mix by Structure Type
Low density Medium density High density
City of London Average Persons Per Unit (PPU) in New Households
3.14 3.11 3.12 3.13 3.102.91
2.512.27
1.902.06
2.47 2.552.72
2.38
1.77 1.69 1.60 1.68 1.68 1.65 1.60
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 20-25 25-35 35+
Pers
ons
Per D
wel
ling
Age of Dwelling Singles and Semi-Detached Multiples Apartments
30
Density Type Low density Medium density High density20-year Average 3.12 2.11 1.68
New Unit PPUSource: Derived from Statistics Canada, 2011 Census
Forecast Employment Growth Scenarios, 2016 to 2041
31
213,300220,100
226,000231,800 233,800 235,800 237,700
225,500
239,400253,200
265,500277,800
287,500
179,300
193,500 195,900
222,800
233,300
242,500 250,100 256,800
261,300
150,000
180,000
210,000
240,000
270,000
300,000
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2044
Empl
oym
ent
YearLow Population Growth Scenario High Population Growth Scenario Reference Population Growth Scenario
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
City of London Employment Forecast Comparison, 2011 to 2044
32
179,
300
193,
500
195,
900
213,
300
223,
400
233,
300
242,
500
250,
100
256,
800
261,
300
179,
300
193,
500
189,
700
203,
200
211,
600
219,
100
229,
300
244,
000
259,
600
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2044
Tota
l Em
ploy
men
t
Year2017 Forecast 2012 Forecast
Notes: 2017 forecast is Reference Employment Growth Scenario. No Fixed Place of Work employment is included in figure. Source: 2017 forecast is a forecast by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 2012 forecast is derived from the City of London, Employment, Population, Housing and Non-Residential Projections prepared by Altus Group, June 2012.
City of London Employment Forecast by Major Sector, 2011 to 2044
33
2011 2021 2031 2041 20446% 9% 9% 8% 8%14% 18% 18% 18% 17%27% 36% 36% 36% 36%0% 0% 0% 0% 0%6% 10% 10% 10% 10%No Fixed Place of Work
Employment SectorWork at HomeIndustrialCommercial/ Population RelatedInstitutional
179,300193,500 195,900
211,700 220,100 229,400 239,000247,200 253,500 259,600
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Mid 2001 Mid 2006 Mid 2011 Mid 2016 Mid 2021 Mid 2026 Mid 2031 Mid 2036 Mid 2041 Mid 2044
Tota
l Em
ploy
men
t
Period Work at Home Industrial Office Retail
Institutional No Fixed Place of Work Employment Activity Rate
Note: Reference Employment Growth Scenario.Source: Statistics Canada, 2001, 2006 and 2011 Census. 2016 to 2044 is a forecast by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
City of London, Non-Residential GFA Forecast, 2011 to 2044
34
29% 35%24% 22% 19% 11%
9% 8%
9%9% 12%
6%
18%24%
22%21% 29%
16%
44% 33%
44%
48%40%
53%
1,059,000 1,028,000951,000
805,000693,000
656,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2031-2036 2036-2041 2041-2044
Ann
ual G
FA (s
q.ft.
) Gro
wth
PeriodIndustrial Office Retail Institutional
Note: Based on Reference Growth Scenario. Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Conclusions
35
City of London D.C. Growth Forecast Update - Preliminary Conclusions Population Growth
The City of London population base is forecast to steadily increase between 2016 and 2044 by approximately 104,700 persons.
This represents an annual population growth rate of 0.8%, which is modestly lower than the provincial average long-term population growth rate.
The City of London population is getting older on average as a result of the aging of the “baby boomers.” By 2041, 20% of the City’s population base will be over 65 years of age.
36
City of London D.C. Growth Forecast Update - Preliminary Conclusions (Cont’d)
Housing Growth To accommodate forecast population growth, the City
of London housing base is forecast to increase by 48,700 households between 2016 and 2044.
Over the long-term forecast period, new housing development is anticipated to gradually shift from low-density to medium- and high-density housing forms.
37
City of London D.C. Growth Forecast Update - Preliminary Conclusions (Cont’d)
Employment Growth The City of London and surrounding regional
economy were hit particularly hard by the 2008/2009 economic downturn.
Since 2011, however, the City of London economy has shown signs of a steady recovery across most economic sectors.
Between 2011 and 2016, the City of London labour force levels rose by approximately 19,500 persons across a broad range of employment sectors.
38
City of London D.C. Growth Forecast Update - Preliminary Conclusions (Cont’d)
Employment Growth (Cont’d)
Between 2016 and 2044, the City of London is forecast to add approximately 44,000 jobs to its employment base.
Forecast employment growth is anticipated to be largely accommodated in commercial and institutional sectors and, to a lesser extent, industrial sectors.
Work at Home and No Fixed Place of Work employment is anticipated to comprise just under 20% of total employment between 2016 and 2044.
39
City of London D.C. Growth Forecast Update - Preliminary Conclusions (Cont’d)
Non-Residential Floor Area Increase Forecast growth in non-residential gross floor area
has been derived by multiplying forecast land-based employment growth by an estimated average floor space per worker (FSW) by major sector.
Over the forecast period, the City of London is forecast to add approximately 23,400,000 sq.ft. of non-residential floor space (GFA) to its existing non-residential building space inventory.
40