2019 annual report - amazon web services
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2019 Annual Report
Our Year in Numbers 42 peer-reviewed publications 50 presentations 30 student & postdoctoral fellows 10 projects completed
Improving the way climate adaptation science informs resource management
Our Mission
NE CASC helps fish, wildlife, ecosystems and people adapt to the impacts of cli- mate change. We pursue this mission by focusing on seven priority science themes:
• Climate change projections and assessments • Impacts on land-use and land-cover • Impacts on freshwater resources and ecosystems • Impacts on Atlantic and Great Lakes coastal and nearshore environments • Ecosystem vulnerability and species response to climate variability and change • Impacts of climate variability and change on cultural resources • Decision frameworks for evaluating risk and managing natural resources under climate change
Update from the Directors The past year was a true “watershed” for NE CASC. We completed an extremely successful Cycle I of funding for the Center (from 2012 – 2019) with scores of scientific products delivered to stakeholders in support of their natural resource management needs. We are happy to announce that UMass Amherst and its consortium members were chosen by USGS to host Cycle II of the NE CASC for the next five years. As we continue responding to stakeholder needs in Cycle II, we will undoubtedly encounter evolving challenges and emerging opportunities. In the coming year, NE CASC will engage dozens of resource managers and researchers through listening sessions and workshops to inform a five-year strategic science plan. Such outreach distinguishes our work and is crucial to our success.
A core strength of NE CASC is its investment in the scientific and natural resource management leaders of tomorrow. Our Graduate Fellows program provides an opportunity for outstanding scholars to excel academically, gather real-world experience, and network with experts across our regional consortium to prepare them for a lifetime of addressing many of the most challenging problems our society faces. We have great things to achieve on the horizon - and a lot of work ahead of us. With the successes of Cycle I to build upon, we are well positioned to continue serving as a leader in the delivery of actionable science to natural resource managers across the Northeast.
Our Staff
Richard Palmer University Director UMass Amherst
Michelle Staudinger Science Coordinator
Sara Smith Midwest Tribal
Director
USGS
Olivia LeDee Deputy Federal
Director
Focus on Outreach Over the past 15 years, State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs) have proven to be visionary documents that provide valu- able guidance to state fish and wildlife agency conservation efforts. According to a recent national survey, SWAPs are regarded as the governmental documents to most effec- tively account for climate change as a threat to wildlife di- versity. As we begin preparing for the 2025 SWAP revision process, opportunities for and barriers to incorporating new climate science have already emerged. Preparation efforts for the revision process across the Northeast SWAP region have been led by the Northeast Fish and Wildlife Diversity Technical Committee (NEF- WDTC). The committee has closely coordinated with state wildlife diversity managers and SWAP coordinators to fa- cilitate communication. NE CASC has, in turn, fostered a strong partnership with the committee through a team led by Karen Terwilliger.
In the last year, Terwilliger and her collaborators have es- tablished the Northeast Climate Change Working Group to promote regional exchange of information and priorities among state fish and wildlife agencies. The team has used the Working Group to synthesize data from these agencies and has identified specific needs for climate change infor- mation as well as the barriers to acquiring it.
Results from this synthesis have revealed priority informa- tion needs, including terrestrial and aquatic habitat connec- tivity and conservation, invasive species, and sea level rise. Information is also needed regarding adaptive capacity and tracking of phenology, precipitation, temperature changes, drought, and water quality. Northeast SWAP states have identified the lack of time, expertise, capacity and funding as key barriers inhibiting development and implementation of adaptation efforts.
The SWAP synthesis also demonstrated that states rely heavily on NE CASC for information, especially the 2015 DOI Northeast Climate Science Center report (produced by Michelle Staudinger and colleagues). Recently, states have expressed the need for a regional climate change compo- nent update for their 2025 SWAP revisions.
Finally, monitoring for climate change was identified as a priority need by NEFWDTC. Existing monitoring frameworks must be assessed and viewed in a hierarchical framework from the regional to national scales. In anticipation of the SWAP revisions, the Working Group can guide assessment and identify priorities for monitoring measurable variables for Regional Species of Greatest Conservation Need and their key habitats, and this project can assist in their devel- opment and communication.
Terwilliger and colleagues have synthesized data from the Northeast SWAP states to produce a regional assessment of ecosystem vulnerability (above left). The NE SWAP region includes Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, and Washington D.C. Northeast SWAP states have identified 2,398 species of greatest conservation need, including the hermit thrush, moose, box turtle, and right whale (pictured above, clockwise from top left).
Ro be
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Ry an
H ag
er ty
Tribal Engagement
There are 60 federally-recognized Tribal Nations in the NE CASC region, as well as many state-recognized Tribal Nations and numerous Indigenous communities, both rural and urban. In 2019, NE CASC led efforts in partnership with the College of Menominee Nation (CMN) and United South and Eastern Tribes Inc. (USET) to fuse Indigenous knowledge and culture with climate adaptation planning, train a new generation of Tribal climate adaptation planners, and provide technical support for Tribes engaged in the adaptation planning process.
Spring 2019 marked the publication of the Tribal Adaptation Menu, an innovative document that provides a framework for integrating Indigenous and traditional knowledge, culture, history and language into the climate adaptation planning process. Developed by an expansive team including Midwest Tribal resilience liaison Sara Smith and NE CASC PI Chris Caldwell, the Menu catalogs a far-reaching collection of climate change adaptation actions for natural resource managers. Following publication of the Menu, Smith organized four workshops to help guide Tribal resource managers in their use of this tool. In recognition of their “noteworthy advances promoting Indigenous perspectives to confront some of today’s most pressing challenges,” the Tribal Adaptation Menu Team received the 2019 Climate Adaptation Leadership Award for Natural Resources from the Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies.
Last June, approximately 35 Tribal community members converged on the CMN campus in Keshena, Wisconsin, to participate in the Indigenous Planning Summer Institute (IPSI), which was organized by the CMN Sustainable Development Institute and directed by Chris Caldwell. Since
joining NE CASC in 2014, CMN has made this week-long, immersive educational experience a focal point of its NE CASC activities. Each summer, IPSI affords a new cohort of undergraduate and graduate students the opportunity to learn about Indigenous planning concepts, techniques, and outcomes in the areas of forestry, agriculture, and community strategizing; visit the Menominee Nation Forest, an internationally renowned originator of sustainable forestry; and become part of a community dedicated to advancing sustainability. This year, IPSI participants worked especially closely with Menknaehkem, a women-led Menominee grassroots organization, as well as the nearby Oneida and Stockbridge Munsee Nations.
.
Participants in the October, 2019, Tribal Adaptation Menu Workshop held in Keshena, Wisconsin. Three additional workshops took place in 2019.
Sa ra
S m
Effects of hydrologic change on stream fish distribution
Keith Nislow, Ben Letcher
Predicted future upstream limits and consequent habitat distributions for brook trout under climate change scenarios.
Effects of small impoundments on stream temperatures
Keith Nislow, Ben Letcher
Investigated impact of dam removal on stream thermal regimes in the context of rising air temperatures caused by climate change.
Decision-support for headwater stream habitats
Keith Nislow, Ben Letcher, Evan Grant
Developed decision-support tools to guide management of cold water stream habitats.
Evaluating trends in streamflow extremes Richard Palmer Evaluated the impact of warmer climates on the statistical properties of
streamflows in the 20th and 21st centuries.
How variation in life history and evolutionary response affect vulnerability to climate change
Ben Letcher Used tagging data and genomic approaches to explore how brook trout will respond to climate change.
Development of a Wildlife Adaptation Menu Olivia LeDee Developed and tested a “menu” of climate change adaptation actions
that are suitable for wildlife management in terrestrial ecosystems.
Hyperscale modeling to predict temperature changes in lakes Jordan Read Generated an improved assessment of aquatic habitat for Midwest lake
fisheries and provided estimates of contemporary thermal habitats.
CIlimate change induced shifts in phenology of coastal fish and wildlife
Adrian Jordaan, Michelle Staudinger
Improved understanding of shifts in the timing of Key life events for fishes, marine mammals,and migratory shore and seabirds in the NE.
Mechanisms for species responses to climate change Curtice Griffin Identified mechanisms that drive projected changes in the distribution
of vulnerable wildlife and tree populations.
Mapping connected refugia for conservation concern species William DeLuca Mapping well-connected refugia that will remain crucial habitat for
wildlife under climate change.
Benjamin Zuckerberg Synthesizing the vulnerability of grassland ecosystems to climate change across the Central Flyway
Using sediment availability to reduce tidal marsh vulnerability to sea level rise
Jonathan Woodruff Comprehensively assessing salt marsh vulnerability to sea level rise, focusing on the movement of sediment into salt marshes.
Development and evaluation of climate change adaptation tools Thomas Bonnot Developing a tool to assess the effectiveness and utility of adaptation
approaches at creating resilient landscapes of natural communities.
Climate adaptation in forests and waters of the Menominee Region
Chris Caldwell, Frank Kutka
Assessing the scope of possible shifts in availability of forest products and other indicator species under climate change.
Adirondack fish conservation Peter McIntyre Using observational data and genomic methods to manage key Adirondack lake fishes such as Summer Suckers, minnows, and smallmouth bass.
Great Lakes fish migrations Peter McIntyre Examining how climate is altering the timing of migrations across the Great Lakes and the role of these large migrations in fertilizing streams.
Completed
New
The NE CASC Fellows program provides an early-career peer forum for graduate students and postdocs to engage in interdisciplinary science while receiving an introduction to coproduction and stakeholder engagement. Interacting via regular meetings, Fellows routinely share their science, discuss research-related challenges, and develop a richer understanding of how actionable science is developed. Diverse in experience, expertise, and background, our Fellows have gone on to careers in a wide variety of fields, including science, management, and boundary-spanning roles with state, federal, non-profit, and private-sector employers. We are delighted to share the following story about the research of Amanda Davis, an NE CASC Fellow.
Despite its storied tradition, the New England fishing industry has entered a state of crisis. In response to chronic overfishing, NOAA has assumed management of the Atlantic cod population, severely constraining harvest of the region’s most iconic fish. Additionally, warming sea- surface temperatures arising from climate change have undermined the productivity of lobsters, sea scallops, groundfish, and other important fisheries. This situation is further aggravated by the fact that climate change has caused more frequent and more intense storms, limiting the number of days fishing boats can operate each year.
The resulting inaccessibility of locally caught seafood has sharply increased its price, prompting New Englanders to become increasingly dependent on cheaper, imported fish. This move away from local seafood has, in turn, decimated employment within the region’s fishing industry,which has lost more than 20% of its jobs in the past two decades.
Although the future appears bleak for New England’s fisheries, research conducted by NE CASC fellow Amanda Davis suggests that that the region’s fishing industry may have cause for optimism. An environmental conservation graduate student at the University of Massachusetts Amherst (UMass), Davis has begun investigating the possibility that obscure but regionally abundant fish species may have the potential to boost consumption of locally harvested fish.
Working with a varied team of collaborators that includes the UMass Department of Food Science, UMass Dining Services, and a commercial seafood distributor, Davis began her project by studying common perceptions of fish species such as haddock, hake, and scup. To do so, she conducted surveys and sensory experiments evaluating consumer knowledge of these local seafood options as well as opinions of their taste, texture, aroma, and appearance.
Results indicate that the seeming unpopularity of these fish species does not stem from consumer dissatisfaction with
their physical properties. Rather, Davis’ experiments show that consumers generally enjoy eating these fish. They may fail to purchase these options at local supermarkets, however, due to their unfamiliarity with a given species or because their grocery stores simply do not routinely stock lesser-known seafood types. These findings suggest that changes in seafood marketing and distribution can substantially shape consumer purchasing decisions and thus positively impact the regional seafood industry.
Due to its far-reaching implications, Davis’ research has garnered support from a wide range of sources. In the past two years, her work has been underwritten by an NSF ADVANCE Award, a UMass Social Science and Environment Seed Grant, and a 2018 Division of Marine Fisheries’ (DMF) Seafood Marketing Pilot Grant.
“Transitioning to abundant local seafood is a win-win scenario for consumers, regional industry, and the environment,” Davis says. “In our area, a fraction of food miles is attached to local catches versus imported seafood. The ‘boat-to-table’ system is a desirable way to significantly reduce our carbon footprint, strengthen our local economy, and support our communities. And, as my research has begun to show, such a transition lies within reach.”
NE CASC fellow Amanda Davis works with a collaborator from UMass Dining Services to prepare a seafood sensory experiment.
NE CASC Fellows
Featured Research: Adaptive Capacity
Over the past century, ice cover in many Wisconsin lakes has declined by an average of one month during winter, a stunning development in a state where ice fishing has become a vital component of a lucrative winter tourism industry. Despite this dramatic shift, the prevailing view that winter is limnologically inconsequential has largely preempted investigation of how diminished lake ice may affect the year-round health of Wisconsin lakes and the aquatic life inhabiting them. Wisconsin winters have become shorter and more variable over the past several decades, however, and climate projections indicate that this trend may intensify in the coming decades. As a result, the once unimaginable scenario of Wisconsin winters without lake ice may become a reality. Similarly, the changing nature of winters in Wisconsin may have significant though hidden consequences for the state’s nearly 12,000 lakes. NE CASC Principal Investigator Hilary Dugan is one of the first researchers to challenge the conventional wisdom regarding the irrelevance of winter to lakes. For Dugan,
Featured Research: Declining Lake Ice
Wisconsin’s vanishing lake ice raises fundamental questions about how lakes are impacted by climate change and its associated ripple effects. To begin investigating this issue, Dugan and her research team have deployed snow plows and snow blowers to keep acres of lake surface free of snow throughout the winter. Preventing snow accumulation on lakes reasonably simulates the ice-free lakes in Wisconsin’s future by allowing sunlight to penetrate through the food web. Dugan suspects that more light will spur additional winter algae growth, a development that may in turn set off a chain reaction altering the nutrient, greenhouse gas, and aquatic life composition of many Wisconsin lakes. Dugan’s innovative experiments thus serve as a key to understanding how Wisconsin’s lakes might evolve in the coming decades and may provide the foundation for a plan to help the species that inhabit them adapt to the impacts of climate change.
Climate change poses a variety of threats to biodiversity and local population persistence, but the magnitude of its impact is not fully understood. To investigate this issue, two NE CASC projects examine how adaptive capacity might be enhanced or undermined in future climate scenarios. A project led by Evan Grant investigates how the inundation level of vernal pools, seasonal wetlands that provide critically important short-term habitat for amphibian species of conservation concern, might impact amphibian life-cycle completion. Researchers used field observations of inundation in 450 pools to train machine-learning models that predict the likelihood of pool inundation based on pool size, day of the year, climate conditions, short-term weather patterns, and soil, geologic, and landcover attributes. The models helped generate predictions of pool wetness across five seasonal time intervals, three short-term weather scenarios, and four sets of downscaled climate projections. Along with long- term monitoring of individual pools, this regional-scale study can support amphibian conservation by helping to identify pools that might serve as refugia from changing climate.
Led by Benjamin Letcher, a second project estimated thermal performance curves in the wild for Brook Trout and developed models of daily survival as a function of stream flow and temperature. These models provide a foundation for adding adaptive capacity information to growth and survival
models. Modeling showed that Brook Trout grow fastest at about roughly two degrees lower than estimates from laboratory studies while also highlighting the importance of tributaries as refuges from floods for small fish and as risky locations for larger fish in warm summers. The project also developed new genetics tools for Brook Trout, facilitating examination of questions related to adaptability. This approach identified differences in populations from Georgia to Maine and can be used to evaluate genetic adaptation to stream warming.
NE CASC investigators studied 450 vernal pools to evaluate their potential as climate change refugia.
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Research Expertise from the NE CASC
Thomas Bonnot | University of Missouri Avian reproductive ecology • Impact of climate change on habitat and populations of song birds and bats • Sustainable adaptive landscape management
Bethany Bradley | UMass Amherst Invasion ecology • Interactions between climate change, land use, and invasive species • Fire ecology
Chris Caldwell | College of Menominee Nation Tribal resilience • Connecting tribes and climate scientists • Cross-cultural and cross-disciplinary education • Applied research and outreach.
Anthony D’Amato | University of Vermont Impacts of climate change and invasive species on forest ecosystems • Temperate and boreal forests • Adaptive management • Silviculture • Forest disturbance
Linda Deegan | Woods Hole Research Center Coastal Processes • Estuaries • Eutrophication • Freshwater Processes • Food web interactions
Hilary Dugan | University of Wisconsin-Madison Lake modeling • Land use • Atmospheric and climate changes in biogeochemical flux • Aquatic processes.
Radley Horton | Columbia University Climate extremes • Risk assessment • Combined impacts of multiple extremes • Natural and built systems
Drawing on a core of nine consortium institutions, NE CASC has assembled a team of climatologists, biologists, ecologists, and hydrologists to inform natural and cultural resource management.
Dana Infante | Michigan State University Stream fishes • River catchment hydrology • Landscape and climate factors affecting stream ecology • Sustainable management of aquatic systems
Olivia LeDee | USGS Wildlife impacts • Adaptation planning • Decision analysis • Natural resource policy • Conservation funding.
Peter McIntyre | Cornell University Great Lakes and inland lakes • Aquatic connectivity • temperature and flow regimes • Fish migrations • coastal fisheries. • Nutrient loading
Toni Lyn Morelli | USGS Landscape and species conservation • Climate adaptation • Translational ecology • Mammal vulnerability • Decision analysis.
Keith Nislow | UMass Amherst Landscape conservation design • Ecodrought • Forest management• Species dynamic response to extreme flows
Richard Palmer | UMass Amherst Stream flows, temperature, and health • Climate change impacts on surface water hydrology • Water supply systems • Decision analysis.
Michelle Staudinger | USGS Aquatic and marine species vulnerability and adaptive capacity • Phenology • Adaptation and conservation strategies.
Jonathan Woodruff | UMass Amherst Geomorphology and sedimentology of coastal and fluvial systems • Estuarine and tidal river dynamics
Our Year in Numbers 42 peer-reviewed publications 50 presentations 30 student & postdoctoral fellows 10 projects completed
Improving the way climate adaptation science informs resource management
Our Mission
NE CASC helps fish, wildlife, ecosystems and people adapt to the impacts of cli- mate change. We pursue this mission by focusing on seven priority science themes:
• Climate change projections and assessments • Impacts on land-use and land-cover • Impacts on freshwater resources and ecosystems • Impacts on Atlantic and Great Lakes coastal and nearshore environments • Ecosystem vulnerability and species response to climate variability and change • Impacts of climate variability and change on cultural resources • Decision frameworks for evaluating risk and managing natural resources under climate change
Update from the Directors The past year was a true “watershed” for NE CASC. We completed an extremely successful Cycle I of funding for the Center (from 2012 – 2019) with scores of scientific products delivered to stakeholders in support of their natural resource management needs. We are happy to announce that UMass Amherst and its consortium members were chosen by USGS to host Cycle II of the NE CASC for the next five years. As we continue responding to stakeholder needs in Cycle II, we will undoubtedly encounter evolving challenges and emerging opportunities. In the coming year, NE CASC will engage dozens of resource managers and researchers through listening sessions and workshops to inform a five-year strategic science plan. Such outreach distinguishes our work and is crucial to our success.
A core strength of NE CASC is its investment in the scientific and natural resource management leaders of tomorrow. Our Graduate Fellows program provides an opportunity for outstanding scholars to excel academically, gather real-world experience, and network with experts across our regional consortium to prepare them for a lifetime of addressing many of the most challenging problems our society faces. We have great things to achieve on the horizon - and a lot of work ahead of us. With the successes of Cycle I to build upon, we are well positioned to continue serving as a leader in the delivery of actionable science to natural resource managers across the Northeast.
Our Staff
Richard Palmer University Director UMass Amherst
Michelle Staudinger Science Coordinator
Sara Smith Midwest Tribal
Director
USGS
Olivia LeDee Deputy Federal
Director
Focus on Outreach Over the past 15 years, State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs) have proven to be visionary documents that provide valu- able guidance to state fish and wildlife agency conservation efforts. According to a recent national survey, SWAPs are regarded as the governmental documents to most effec- tively account for climate change as a threat to wildlife di- versity. As we begin preparing for the 2025 SWAP revision process, opportunities for and barriers to incorporating new climate science have already emerged. Preparation efforts for the revision process across the Northeast SWAP region have been led by the Northeast Fish and Wildlife Diversity Technical Committee (NEF- WDTC). The committee has closely coordinated with state wildlife diversity managers and SWAP coordinators to fa- cilitate communication. NE CASC has, in turn, fostered a strong partnership with the committee through a team led by Karen Terwilliger.
In the last year, Terwilliger and her collaborators have es- tablished the Northeast Climate Change Working Group to promote regional exchange of information and priorities among state fish and wildlife agencies. The team has used the Working Group to synthesize data from these agencies and has identified specific needs for climate change infor- mation as well as the barriers to acquiring it.
Results from this synthesis have revealed priority informa- tion needs, including terrestrial and aquatic habitat connec- tivity and conservation, invasive species, and sea level rise. Information is also needed regarding adaptive capacity and tracking of phenology, precipitation, temperature changes, drought, and water quality. Northeast SWAP states have identified the lack of time, expertise, capacity and funding as key barriers inhibiting development and implementation of adaptation efforts.
The SWAP synthesis also demonstrated that states rely heavily on NE CASC for information, especially the 2015 DOI Northeast Climate Science Center report (produced by Michelle Staudinger and colleagues). Recently, states have expressed the need for a regional climate change compo- nent update for their 2025 SWAP revisions.
Finally, monitoring for climate change was identified as a priority need by NEFWDTC. Existing monitoring frameworks must be assessed and viewed in a hierarchical framework from the regional to national scales. In anticipation of the SWAP revisions, the Working Group can guide assessment and identify priorities for monitoring measurable variables for Regional Species of Greatest Conservation Need and their key habitats, and this project can assist in their devel- opment and communication.
Terwilliger and colleagues have synthesized data from the Northeast SWAP states to produce a regional assessment of ecosystem vulnerability (above left). The NE SWAP region includes Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, and Washington D.C. Northeast SWAP states have identified 2,398 species of greatest conservation need, including the hermit thrush, moose, box turtle, and right whale (pictured above, clockwise from top left).
Ro be
rt R
oy s
Jo na
th an
M ay
Ry an
H ag
er ty
Tribal Engagement
There are 60 federally-recognized Tribal Nations in the NE CASC region, as well as many state-recognized Tribal Nations and numerous Indigenous communities, both rural and urban. In 2019, NE CASC led efforts in partnership with the College of Menominee Nation (CMN) and United South and Eastern Tribes Inc. (USET) to fuse Indigenous knowledge and culture with climate adaptation planning, train a new generation of Tribal climate adaptation planners, and provide technical support for Tribes engaged in the adaptation planning process.
Spring 2019 marked the publication of the Tribal Adaptation Menu, an innovative document that provides a framework for integrating Indigenous and traditional knowledge, culture, history and language into the climate adaptation planning process. Developed by an expansive team including Midwest Tribal resilience liaison Sara Smith and NE CASC PI Chris Caldwell, the Menu catalogs a far-reaching collection of climate change adaptation actions for natural resource managers. Following publication of the Menu, Smith organized four workshops to help guide Tribal resource managers in their use of this tool. In recognition of their “noteworthy advances promoting Indigenous perspectives to confront some of today’s most pressing challenges,” the Tribal Adaptation Menu Team received the 2019 Climate Adaptation Leadership Award for Natural Resources from the Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies.
Last June, approximately 35 Tribal community members converged on the CMN campus in Keshena, Wisconsin, to participate in the Indigenous Planning Summer Institute (IPSI), which was organized by the CMN Sustainable Development Institute and directed by Chris Caldwell. Since
joining NE CASC in 2014, CMN has made this week-long, immersive educational experience a focal point of its NE CASC activities. Each summer, IPSI affords a new cohort of undergraduate and graduate students the opportunity to learn about Indigenous planning concepts, techniques, and outcomes in the areas of forestry, agriculture, and community strategizing; visit the Menominee Nation Forest, an internationally renowned originator of sustainable forestry; and become part of a community dedicated to advancing sustainability. This year, IPSI participants worked especially closely with Menknaehkem, a women-led Menominee grassroots organization, as well as the nearby Oneida and Stockbridge Munsee Nations.
.
Participants in the October, 2019, Tribal Adaptation Menu Workshop held in Keshena, Wisconsin. Three additional workshops took place in 2019.
Sa ra
S m
Effects of hydrologic change on stream fish distribution
Keith Nislow, Ben Letcher
Predicted future upstream limits and consequent habitat distributions for brook trout under climate change scenarios.
Effects of small impoundments on stream temperatures
Keith Nislow, Ben Letcher
Investigated impact of dam removal on stream thermal regimes in the context of rising air temperatures caused by climate change.
Decision-support for headwater stream habitats
Keith Nislow, Ben Letcher, Evan Grant
Developed decision-support tools to guide management of cold water stream habitats.
Evaluating trends in streamflow extremes Richard Palmer Evaluated the impact of warmer climates on the statistical properties of
streamflows in the 20th and 21st centuries.
How variation in life history and evolutionary response affect vulnerability to climate change
Ben Letcher Used tagging data and genomic approaches to explore how brook trout will respond to climate change.
Development of a Wildlife Adaptation Menu Olivia LeDee Developed and tested a “menu” of climate change adaptation actions
that are suitable for wildlife management in terrestrial ecosystems.
Hyperscale modeling to predict temperature changes in lakes Jordan Read Generated an improved assessment of aquatic habitat for Midwest lake
fisheries and provided estimates of contemporary thermal habitats.
CIlimate change induced shifts in phenology of coastal fish and wildlife
Adrian Jordaan, Michelle Staudinger
Improved understanding of shifts in the timing of Key life events for fishes, marine mammals,and migratory shore and seabirds in the NE.
Mechanisms for species responses to climate change Curtice Griffin Identified mechanisms that drive projected changes in the distribution
of vulnerable wildlife and tree populations.
Mapping connected refugia for conservation concern species William DeLuca Mapping well-connected refugia that will remain crucial habitat for
wildlife under climate change.
Benjamin Zuckerberg Synthesizing the vulnerability of grassland ecosystems to climate change across the Central Flyway
Using sediment availability to reduce tidal marsh vulnerability to sea level rise
Jonathan Woodruff Comprehensively assessing salt marsh vulnerability to sea level rise, focusing on the movement of sediment into salt marshes.
Development and evaluation of climate change adaptation tools Thomas Bonnot Developing a tool to assess the effectiveness and utility of adaptation
approaches at creating resilient landscapes of natural communities.
Climate adaptation in forests and waters of the Menominee Region
Chris Caldwell, Frank Kutka
Assessing the scope of possible shifts in availability of forest products and other indicator species under climate change.
Adirondack fish conservation Peter McIntyre Using observational data and genomic methods to manage key Adirondack lake fishes such as Summer Suckers, minnows, and smallmouth bass.
Great Lakes fish migrations Peter McIntyre Examining how climate is altering the timing of migrations across the Great Lakes and the role of these large migrations in fertilizing streams.
Completed
New
The NE CASC Fellows program provides an early-career peer forum for graduate students and postdocs to engage in interdisciplinary science while receiving an introduction to coproduction and stakeholder engagement. Interacting via regular meetings, Fellows routinely share their science, discuss research-related challenges, and develop a richer understanding of how actionable science is developed. Diverse in experience, expertise, and background, our Fellows have gone on to careers in a wide variety of fields, including science, management, and boundary-spanning roles with state, federal, non-profit, and private-sector employers. We are delighted to share the following story about the research of Amanda Davis, an NE CASC Fellow.
Despite its storied tradition, the New England fishing industry has entered a state of crisis. In response to chronic overfishing, NOAA has assumed management of the Atlantic cod population, severely constraining harvest of the region’s most iconic fish. Additionally, warming sea- surface temperatures arising from climate change have undermined the productivity of lobsters, sea scallops, groundfish, and other important fisheries. This situation is further aggravated by the fact that climate change has caused more frequent and more intense storms, limiting the number of days fishing boats can operate each year.
The resulting inaccessibility of locally caught seafood has sharply increased its price, prompting New Englanders to become increasingly dependent on cheaper, imported fish. This move away from local seafood has, in turn, decimated employment within the region’s fishing industry,which has lost more than 20% of its jobs in the past two decades.
Although the future appears bleak for New England’s fisheries, research conducted by NE CASC fellow Amanda Davis suggests that that the region’s fishing industry may have cause for optimism. An environmental conservation graduate student at the University of Massachusetts Amherst (UMass), Davis has begun investigating the possibility that obscure but regionally abundant fish species may have the potential to boost consumption of locally harvested fish.
Working with a varied team of collaborators that includes the UMass Department of Food Science, UMass Dining Services, and a commercial seafood distributor, Davis began her project by studying common perceptions of fish species such as haddock, hake, and scup. To do so, she conducted surveys and sensory experiments evaluating consumer knowledge of these local seafood options as well as opinions of their taste, texture, aroma, and appearance.
Results indicate that the seeming unpopularity of these fish species does not stem from consumer dissatisfaction with
their physical properties. Rather, Davis’ experiments show that consumers generally enjoy eating these fish. They may fail to purchase these options at local supermarkets, however, due to their unfamiliarity with a given species or because their grocery stores simply do not routinely stock lesser-known seafood types. These findings suggest that changes in seafood marketing and distribution can substantially shape consumer purchasing decisions and thus positively impact the regional seafood industry.
Due to its far-reaching implications, Davis’ research has garnered support from a wide range of sources. In the past two years, her work has been underwritten by an NSF ADVANCE Award, a UMass Social Science and Environment Seed Grant, and a 2018 Division of Marine Fisheries’ (DMF) Seafood Marketing Pilot Grant.
“Transitioning to abundant local seafood is a win-win scenario for consumers, regional industry, and the environment,” Davis says. “In our area, a fraction of food miles is attached to local catches versus imported seafood. The ‘boat-to-table’ system is a desirable way to significantly reduce our carbon footprint, strengthen our local economy, and support our communities. And, as my research has begun to show, such a transition lies within reach.”
NE CASC fellow Amanda Davis works with a collaborator from UMass Dining Services to prepare a seafood sensory experiment.
NE CASC Fellows
Featured Research: Adaptive Capacity
Over the past century, ice cover in many Wisconsin lakes has declined by an average of one month during winter, a stunning development in a state where ice fishing has become a vital component of a lucrative winter tourism industry. Despite this dramatic shift, the prevailing view that winter is limnologically inconsequential has largely preempted investigation of how diminished lake ice may affect the year-round health of Wisconsin lakes and the aquatic life inhabiting them. Wisconsin winters have become shorter and more variable over the past several decades, however, and climate projections indicate that this trend may intensify in the coming decades. As a result, the once unimaginable scenario of Wisconsin winters without lake ice may become a reality. Similarly, the changing nature of winters in Wisconsin may have significant though hidden consequences for the state’s nearly 12,000 lakes. NE CASC Principal Investigator Hilary Dugan is one of the first researchers to challenge the conventional wisdom regarding the irrelevance of winter to lakes. For Dugan,
Featured Research: Declining Lake Ice
Wisconsin’s vanishing lake ice raises fundamental questions about how lakes are impacted by climate change and its associated ripple effects. To begin investigating this issue, Dugan and her research team have deployed snow plows and snow blowers to keep acres of lake surface free of snow throughout the winter. Preventing snow accumulation on lakes reasonably simulates the ice-free lakes in Wisconsin’s future by allowing sunlight to penetrate through the food web. Dugan suspects that more light will spur additional winter algae growth, a development that may in turn set off a chain reaction altering the nutrient, greenhouse gas, and aquatic life composition of many Wisconsin lakes. Dugan’s innovative experiments thus serve as a key to understanding how Wisconsin’s lakes might evolve in the coming decades and may provide the foundation for a plan to help the species that inhabit them adapt to the impacts of climate change.
Climate change poses a variety of threats to biodiversity and local population persistence, but the magnitude of its impact is not fully understood. To investigate this issue, two NE CASC projects examine how adaptive capacity might be enhanced or undermined in future climate scenarios. A project led by Evan Grant investigates how the inundation level of vernal pools, seasonal wetlands that provide critically important short-term habitat for amphibian species of conservation concern, might impact amphibian life-cycle completion. Researchers used field observations of inundation in 450 pools to train machine-learning models that predict the likelihood of pool inundation based on pool size, day of the year, climate conditions, short-term weather patterns, and soil, geologic, and landcover attributes. The models helped generate predictions of pool wetness across five seasonal time intervals, three short-term weather scenarios, and four sets of downscaled climate projections. Along with long- term monitoring of individual pools, this regional-scale study can support amphibian conservation by helping to identify pools that might serve as refugia from changing climate.
Led by Benjamin Letcher, a second project estimated thermal performance curves in the wild for Brook Trout and developed models of daily survival as a function of stream flow and temperature. These models provide a foundation for adding adaptive capacity information to growth and survival
models. Modeling showed that Brook Trout grow fastest at about roughly two degrees lower than estimates from laboratory studies while also highlighting the importance of tributaries as refuges from floods for small fish and as risky locations for larger fish in warm summers. The project also developed new genetics tools for Brook Trout, facilitating examination of questions related to adaptability. This approach identified differences in populations from Georgia to Maine and can be used to evaluate genetic adaptation to stream warming.
NE CASC investigators studied 450 vernal pools to evaluate their potential as climate change refugia.
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Research Expertise from the NE CASC
Thomas Bonnot | University of Missouri Avian reproductive ecology • Impact of climate change on habitat and populations of song birds and bats • Sustainable adaptive landscape management
Bethany Bradley | UMass Amherst Invasion ecology • Interactions between climate change, land use, and invasive species • Fire ecology
Chris Caldwell | College of Menominee Nation Tribal resilience • Connecting tribes and climate scientists • Cross-cultural and cross-disciplinary education • Applied research and outreach.
Anthony D’Amato | University of Vermont Impacts of climate change and invasive species on forest ecosystems • Temperate and boreal forests • Adaptive management • Silviculture • Forest disturbance
Linda Deegan | Woods Hole Research Center Coastal Processes • Estuaries • Eutrophication • Freshwater Processes • Food web interactions
Hilary Dugan | University of Wisconsin-Madison Lake modeling • Land use • Atmospheric and climate changes in biogeochemical flux • Aquatic processes.
Radley Horton | Columbia University Climate extremes • Risk assessment • Combined impacts of multiple extremes • Natural and built systems
Drawing on a core of nine consortium institutions, NE CASC has assembled a team of climatologists, biologists, ecologists, and hydrologists to inform natural and cultural resource management.
Dana Infante | Michigan State University Stream fishes • River catchment hydrology • Landscape and climate factors affecting stream ecology • Sustainable management of aquatic systems
Olivia LeDee | USGS Wildlife impacts • Adaptation planning • Decision analysis • Natural resource policy • Conservation funding.
Peter McIntyre | Cornell University Great Lakes and inland lakes • Aquatic connectivity • temperature and flow regimes • Fish migrations • coastal fisheries. • Nutrient loading
Toni Lyn Morelli | USGS Landscape and species conservation • Climate adaptation • Translational ecology • Mammal vulnerability • Decision analysis.
Keith Nislow | UMass Amherst Landscape conservation design • Ecodrought • Forest management• Species dynamic response to extreme flows
Richard Palmer | UMass Amherst Stream flows, temperature, and health • Climate change impacts on surface water hydrology • Water supply systems • Decision analysis.
Michelle Staudinger | USGS Aquatic and marine species vulnerability and adaptive capacity • Phenology • Adaptation and conservation strategies.
Jonathan Woodruff | UMass Amherst Geomorphology and sedimentology of coastal and fluvial systems • Estuarine and tidal river dynamics