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SPONSORS

2

Calhoun County Economy

Forum

• National Update (Slides 3-15)

• Alabama Update (Slides 16-53)

• Calhoun County Update (Slides 54-122)

GDP % Change from Preceding

Period for U.S.

1st Qtr 2015 – 4th Qtr 2017

3.2%

2.7%1.6%

0.5%

0.6%

2.2%

2.8%

1.8%

1.2%

3.1% 3.2%

2.6%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

15Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 16Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 17Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

3Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Real Gross Domestic Product Seasonally adjusted at annual rates

2.6% 4th Qtr 2017

https://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm

U.S. Industrial Production

Jan 2015 – Dec 2017

106

106

105

105 105

104 105

103104

105104

104

104

105

105

105

107

108

103

104

105

106

107

108

Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17

4Source: Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System

+3.60% 12 Months

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/default.htm

Change in Total Nonfarm Payroll

Employment for U.S.

Jan 2014 - Jan 2018 in 1,000s

168

306331

265

84

277

149

295

168

233

24

271

135156

232

50

208

38

160

200

0

100

200

300

400

500

Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18

Pay

roll

Em

pin

1,0

00

s

Jan 18 Pre +200,000

5Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Seasonally Adjusted

https://www.bls.gov/ces/

Dow Jones Industrial Average

(DJIA) Feb 2016–Feb 2018

17,685

18,40119,124

19,86420,941

21,830

23,837

26,617

24,191

15,000

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

27,000

F-16 A-16 F-17 A-17 F-18

6Source: NY Stock Exchange

+22.20% 12 Months

http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/

Consumer Price Index U.S.

Jan 2015-Dec 2017

235.2

238.0

237.7

239.8243.0

243.8

247.6

230

235

240

245

250

Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17

7

+2.1% 12 Months

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/data.htm

U.S. Consumer Sentiment

Jan 2015 – Jan 2018

9893

90

93

89

95

91

94

98

97

97 95

10199

96

75

85

95

105

Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18

8Source: University of Michigan Institute of Social Research

Last 12 Months -2.8%

http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

Monthly Sales for Retail & Food

Services in U.S.

Jan 2015-Dec 2017 in $ Bill

$436$445

$450

$453

$458$469

$475

$477$494

$495

$410

$430

$450

$470

$490

$510

Jan-2015 Jan-2016 Jan-2017

In $

Bil

lion

s

9Source: U.S. Census Bureau

+5.60% 12 Months

https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

Case Shiller 20-City Home Price

Index Jan 2015-Dec 2017

175178 179

181185

188 188190

194198 199

203

170

180

190

200

210

Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17

10Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SPCS20:IND

+6.60% 12 Months

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SPCS20:IND

Labor Force U.S.

2007-2017 in Millions

153154 154 154 154

155 155 156157

159161

148

150

152

154

156

158

160

162

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

In M

illi

on

s

11

Seasonally Adjusted


https://www.bls.gov/

Labor Force U.S.

Jan – Dec 2017 in Millions

159.7160.1 160.2160.2

159.8160.1

160.5 160.6

161.1

160.4 160.5 160.6

158

159

160

161

162

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

In M

illi

on

s

12

+881,000

12 Months

Seasonally Adjusted



13

Employment U.S.


138 137

131 130132

134136

139142

144

153

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

In M

illi

on

s

Seasonally Adjusted



Employment U.S.


152153

153 153153

153154 153

154

154 154 154

151

152

153

154

155


In M

illi

on

s

14

+1,940,000

12 Months

Seasonally Adjusted



Unemployment Rate U.S.

Jan 2017 - Jan 2018

15

4.8%

4.7%4.5%

4.4%

4.3%

4.4%

4.3%

4.4%

4.2%

4.1% 4.1%

4.1% 4.1%

3.8%

4.0%

4.3%

4.5%

4.8%

5.0%

Jan-17 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan-18

% U

nem

plo

yed


Seasonally Adjusted

-.7%

from 2017


16

State of Alabama

Economy

• Population (17-24)

• Labor Force (27-28)

• Employment (29-30)

• Unemployment (31-35)

• Tax Revenues (36-42)

Population Estimates

State of Alabama 2007-2017

in Millions

4.67

4.72

4.764.79

4.804.82

4.834.85 4.86 4.86 4.87

4.6

4.7

4.8

4.9

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

In M

illi

on

s


18

High InboundBalancedHigh Outbound

Source: United Van Lines 2016 Movers Study

Migration Patterns Based Upon

Household Moves Jan-Dec 2016

Alabama

Out - 793

In - 893

Migration Patterns Based Upon

Household Moves Jan-Dec 2017

19Source: United Van Lines Migration Study 2017

Inbound

Outbound

Balanced

Alabama

Out - 745

In - 986

https://www.unitedvanlines.com/contact-united/news/movers-study-2017

Top Inbound & Top Outbound

States for Migration 2017

Top 10 Inbound States

1. Vermont

2. Oregon

3. Idaho

4. Nevada

5. S Dakota

20

6. Washington

7. S Carolina

8. N Carolina

9. Colorado

10. Alabama

Top 10 Outbound States

1. Illinois

2. New Jersey

3. New York

4. Connecticut

5. Kansas

6. Massachusetts

7. Ohio

8. Kentucky

9. Utah

10.Wisconsin

Source: United Van Lines Migration Study 2017


Alabama Migration Patterns Based

Upon Household Moves 2012-2017

Year of Study Classification* Inbound Outbound Percentage

2017 Inbound 986 745 57%

2016 Balanced 893 795 53%

2015 Inbound 1092 819 57%

2014 Balanced 962 887 52%

2013 Balanced 1121 955 54%

2012 Balanced 1151 1019 53%

21*55% ratio of moved are InboundSource: United Van Lines Migration Study 2017


Top Reported Reasons for Migration

In and Out of Alabama 2017

22

Inbound

Reason

Top Reasons

Reported

Outbound

Reason

14.44% Retirement 5.83%

6.67% Health 4.17%

21.67% Family 14.17%

6.11% Lifestyle 3.33%

61.11% Job* 74.17%



Age for Migration In and Out of

Alabama 2017

23

Inbound Age Age Categories Outbound Age

19.19% <18 to 34 27.68%*

18.02% 35-44 14.29%

16.28% 45-54 26.79%

28.49%* 55-64 14.29%

18.02% 65 and Older 16.96%



Income for Migration In and Out of

Alabama 2017

24

Inbound Income Income Categories Outbound Income

8.53% Less than $50,000 8.00%

27.91%* $50,000 to $74,999 16.00%

13.95% $75,000 to $99,999 14.00%

22.48% $100,000 to $149,000 23.00%

27.13%* $150,000 or More 39.00%*



GDP % Change from Preceding

Year for State of AL Vs U.S.

2007 - 20164.5%

1.6%

-2.1%

3.8%

3.7% 4.1%3.3%

4.4% 4.0%

2.8%

3.3%

1.6%

-2.5%

3.8%

3.4%2.9%

2.4%1.9%

3.3%2.6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

US AL

25Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis: Current $

https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_state/qgdpstate_newsrelease.htm

GDP % Change from Previous

Quarter State of AL Vs U.S.

1st Qtr 2016-3rd Qtr 2017

0.9%

4.6%

4.2%

3.6%3.3%

4.1%

5.3%

1.9%

5.0%

1.1%

4.6%

6.8%

3.7%4.6%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

16Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3

US AL


*

https://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_regional.cfm

Labor Force State of Alabama


2.17 2.172.16

2.19 2.20

2.172.15

2.15 2.14

2.18 2.18

2.10

2.12

2.14

2.16

2.18

2.20

2.22

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

In M

illi

on

s

27Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Seasonally Adjusted

Labor Force State of Alabama


2.20

2.202.21 2.21

2.20

2.18

2.16

2.15 2.152.16

2.162.17

2.14

2.16

2.18

2.20

2.22


In M

illi

on

s


Seasonally Adjusted

29

Employment State of Alabama


2.09

2.05

1.92

1.96

1.99 1.99 2.00 2.002.01

2.05

2.07

1.90

1.95

2.00

2.05

2.10

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

In M

illi

on

s


Seasonally Adjusted

Employment State of Alabama


2.05

2.07

2.08

2.09 2.09

2.08

2.062.06

2.07

2.08

2.092.09

2.04

2.05

2.06

2.07

2.08

2.09

2.10


In M

illi

on

s


+39,226 for

12 Months Seasonally Adjusted

Unemployment Rate State of AL

Jan - Dec 2016 vs 2017

31

6.2% 6.2%

6.2% 6.1% 6.0% 6.0%5.7%

5.4% 5.4%5.7%

5.9%6.2%6.4%

6.2%

5.8%5.4%

4.9%4.6% 4.5%

4.2%3.8%

3.6% 3.5% 3.5%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%


% U

nem

plo

yed

2016

2017


Seasonally Adjusted

-2.9% from 2016

Unemployment Rate

AL vs U.S. Jan - Dec 2017

32

6.4% 6.2%5.8%

5.4%4.9%

4.6% 4.5%

4.2%3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5%

4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.4% 4.3%

4.4% 4.2% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%


% U

nem

plo

yed

AL U.S.


Seasonally Adjusted

33

KY 4.8%

TN 4.9%

MS 5.6%

NC 5.1%

SC 4.3%

FL 4.9%

AL 6.2%

Unemployment Rates

Southeastern United States

Dec 2016

Seasonally Adjusted

GA 5.4%

Source: AL Dept of Labor

34

KY 4.4%

TN 3.2%

MS 4.6%

NC 4.5%

SC 4.1%

FL 3.7%

AL 3.5%

Unemployment Rates

Southeastern United States

Dec 2017

Seasonally Adjusted

GA 4.4%

Source: AL Dept of Labor

https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv?la

Job Quit Levels Annual Per Month Average

for U.S. South Region

2007-2017 in Thousands

1204

1027

711 743795

882961

10671154

12011286

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

In T

ho

usa

nd

s

35Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.t04.htm

Gross Revenue Collections State of

Alabama FY11-12 – FY16-17

in $ Billions

$8.93

$9.28$9.40

$9.78$9.90

$10.31

$8.00

$8.50

$9.00

$9.50

$10.00

$10.50

FY11-12 FY12-13 FY13-14 FY14-15 FY15-16 FY16-17

In $

Bil

lio

ns

36Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

+4.16% from FY 15-16

*

*Record High for Alabama

Individual Income Tax

Gross Collections State of Alabama

FY11-12 – FY16-17 in $ Billions

$3.58

$3.75 $3.75

$3.93

$4.07

$4.21

$3.20

$3.40

$3.60

$3.80

$4.00

$4.20

$4.40

FY11-12 FY12-13 FY13-14 FY14-15 FY15-16 FY16-17

In $

Bil

lio

ns

37

+3.31% from 2016

Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

Sales Tax Gross Collections State of

Alabama FY11-12 – FY16-17

in $ Billions

$1.99$2.03

$2.08

$2.15

$2.24$2.28

$1.80

$1.90

$2.00

$2.10

$2.20

$2.30

$2.40

FY11-12 FY12-13 FY13-14 FY14-15 FY15-16 FY16-17

In $

Bil

lio

ns

38

+1.83% from FY 15-16

Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

Total/Sales/Individual Income Tax

State of AL in $ Millions

FYTD 16-17 vs FYTD 17-18

39Source: Alabama Department of Revenue Oct-Jan

In $

Millions

FYTD

16-17

FYTD

17-18

% Change

Individual

Income Tax $1,193 $1,293 +8.32%

Sales Tax $776 $780 +3.01%

Total $3,461 $3,619 +4.57%

https://revenue.alabama.gov/category/publications/monthly-abstracts/

Total/Sales/Individual Income Tax

State of AL in $ Millions

Jan 2017 vs Jan 2018


In $ Millions Jan 2017 Jan 2018 % Change

Individual

Income Tax $265.99 $305.93 +15.02%

Sales Tax $205.30 $211.56 +3.05%

Total $942.68 $992.19 +5.25%

Simplified Sellers Use Tax Program*

State of Alabama Total Collections by

Fiscal Quarter FY16Q1-FY2017Q4

$0.01 $0.47$1.81 $2.08

$7.24

$16.82$15.04

$16.71

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

FY16Q1 FY16Q2 FY16Q3 FY16Q4 FY17Q1 FY17Q2 FY17Q3 FY17Q4

In $

Bil

lio

ns


$52.4 Millions FY 2017

*State capturing online sales as use tax, Amazon joins 11/01/16

Simplified Sellers Use Tax Program

State of Alabama FY 2016-2017

General Fund

$19,635,891

38%

Counties

$13,090,594

25%

Municipalities

$13,090,594

25%

Education

$6,545,297

12%


$52.4 Millions FY 2017

43

Housing Statistics

State of AL 2016 vs 2017

2016 2017 % Change

Median Price$141,442 $148,913 +5.3%

Avg Days on

Market 142 130 -8.5%

Total Homes

Sold 53,759 57,569 +7.1%Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate

44

• State Survey – 4th Quarter 2017

• Approximately 164 respondents

• Operated by University of Alabama Center for

Business and Economic Research

• cber.cba.ua.edu

Alabama Business Confidence Index

CULVERHOUSE

College of Commerce

https://cber.cba.ua.edu/abci/index.html

45

0.6%7.9%

42.4%47.3%

1.8%0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

Much Worse Worse Remain the

Same

Better Much Better

% o

f R

esp

on

den

ts

Source: Alabama Business Confidence Index

Economic Outlook for Alabama

Q4 2017 compared to Q3 2017


46

53.055.1

52.4 52.6

62.7

65.2

61.6

58.7

50

56

62

68

Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17

Index

Val

ue

Economic Outlook Index for

Alabama Q1 16 – Q4 17

% Change Q3 17 – Q4 17 -4.72%

% Change Q4 16 – Q4 17 +12.0%



Hiring Outlook for Alabama


3.0% 5.5%

53.3%

36.4%

1.8%0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

Strong

Decrease

Moderate

Decrease

No Change Moderate

Increase

Strong

Increase

% o

f R

espo

nd

ents

47Source: Alabama Business Confidence Index


53.954.9

49.9

51.9

57.6

60.7

58.957.4

49

53

57

61

Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17

Index

Val

ue

Hiring Outlook Index for Alabama

Q1 16 – Q4 17

48

% Change Q3 17 – Q4 17 -2.50%

% Change Q4 16 – Q4 17 +10.6%



Sales Outlook for Alabama


0.6%7.9%

42.4%47.3%

1.8%0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

Strong

Decrease

Moderate

Decrease

No Change Moderate

Increase

Strong

Increase

% o

f R

espo

nd

ents

49Source: Alabama Business Confidence Index


55.1

57.9

54.3 54.9

63.4

67.2

62.6

58.8

52

56

60

64

68

Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17

Index

Val

ue

Sales Outlook Index for Alabama

Q1 16 – Q4 17

50

% Change Q3 17 – Q4 17 -6.0%

% Change Q4 16 – Q4 17 +7.1%



1.2%5.8%

49.7%

39.2%

4.1%

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

Strong

Decrease

Moderate

Decrease

No Change Moderate

Increase

Strong

Increase

% o

f R

esp

on

den

ts

51

Capital Expenditures Outlook




52.8 53.0

55.1

52.0

58.5

61.9

59.8

57.4

50

54

58

62

Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17

Index

Val

ue

52

Capital Expenditures Outlook

Alabama Q1 16 – Q4 17% Change Q3 17 - Q4 17 -4.0%

% Change Q4 16 - Q4 17 +10.8%



State of Alabama

Summary• Population Census Up, High Inbound State (57%)

• State GDP Up (2016 2.6%, 2017 estimate June 18)

• Labor Force Flat to Up Slightly (+4,000 2017, Trending Down)

• Employment Up (+27,433 2017)

• Unemployment Rate Down (3.5% Dec)

• Housing Up (+7.1% Homes Sold 2016 vs 2017)

• State Tax Revenues Exceed $10 Billion 1st Time ($10.31 B)53


54


55

• Membership Survey (56-78)

• Employment (81-90)

• County Tax Collections (94-96)

• Tourism & Housing (97-101)

• Municipal Tax Collections (102-113)

• Economic Development Council (115-124)

Membership Survey of Calhoun

County Chamber of Commerce 2018

• Ten years of data from Membership

• Results for seven questions

• First chart last years results

• Second chart this years results

• Third chart results from last 10 years

• Index value = (sum of item values)x(response%)/(#options)

56

57

0%

11%

22%

46%

28%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Much Worse Worse About Same Better Much Better

Jan 2017

Index .82

Source: 2017 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

Q#1: Overall Economic Outlook

Last Year (Jan 2017)

58

1% 1%

24%

49%

24%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Much Worse Worse About Same Better Much Better

Jan 2018

Index .79


Q#1: Overall Economic Outlook

This Year (Jan 2018)

59

.58.56

.77

.84

.77.82 .83

.74

.82.79

.40

.53

.65

.78

.90

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Ind

ex V

alu

eQ#1: Overall Economic Outlook

2009-2018

Source: 2009-2018 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

60

Q#2: Employment Outlook



0%

7%

45%41%

6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Major

Cutback #

Emp

Slight

Cutback #

Emp

Remain Same Slight

Increase #

Emp

Major

Increase #

Emp

Jan 2017

Index .69

61

Q#2: Employment Outlook



0% 3%

58%

38%

1%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Major

Cutback #

Emp

Slight

Cutback #

Emp

Remain Same Slight

Increase #

Emp

Major

Increase #

Emp

Jan 2018

Index .67

62

.63.65

.70

.74.72

.75.73

.71.69

.67

.50

.60

.70

.80

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Ind

ex V

alu

eQ#2: Employment Outlook

2009-2018


63

Remain same

75

Q#3: Intentions Concerning

Employee Compensation This Year

(Jan 2017)


0%5%

28%

64%

3%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Major

Decrease

Slight

Decrease

Remain Same Slight

Increase

Major

Increase

Jan 2017

Index .73

64


Employee Compensation This Year

(Jan 2018)


0% 0%

36%

63%

1%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Major

Decrease

Slight

Decrease

Remain Same Slight

Increase

Major

Increase

Jan 2018

Index .73

65

.61

.73

.61

.70

.65

.74

.80.82

.73 .73

.50

.60

.70

.80

.90

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Index

Val

ue


Employee Compensation 2009-2018


0%5%

26%

55%

14%

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

Major

Decrease

Slight

Decrease

Remain Same Slight

Increase

Major

Increase66

Q#4: Demand for Products/Services



Jan 2017

Index .76

67




1% 1%

34%

44%

20%

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

Major

Decrease

Slight

Decrease

Remain Same Slight

Increase

Major

Increase

Jan 2018

Index .76

68

.83

.55

.75.78 .77

.80.83

.76 .76 .76

.45

.60

.75

.90

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Index

Val

ue


2009-2018


Remain same

75

Q#5: New Product Offerings


Source: 2017 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 69

0% 2%

43% 41%

15%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Major

Decrease

Slight

Decrease

Remain Same Slight

Increase

Major

Increase

Jan 2017

Index .74

Remain same

75



Source: 2018 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 70

0% 1%

48%42%

8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Major

Decrease

Slight

Decrease

Remain Same Slight

Increase

Major

Increase

Jan 2018

Index .71

.69.65

.69 .71 .71.76

.80 .81

.74.71

.40

.53

.65

.78

.90

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Index

Val

ue


2009-2018

71Source: 2009-2018 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

Remain same

75

Q#6: Intention to Change Number of

Outlets Last Year (Jan 2017)

72Source: 2017 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

0% 1%

81%

16%

2%0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

75%

90%

Major

Decrease

Slight

Decrease

Remain Same Slight

Increase

Major

Increase

Jan 2017

Index .63

Remain same

75


Outlets This Year (Jan 2018)


0% 1%

83%

16%

0%0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

75%

90%

Major

Decrease

Slight

Decrease

Remain Same Slight

Increase

Major

Increase

Jan 2018

Index .63

.56

.48

.41

.47 .48.52

.68 .69

.64 .63

.40

.50

.60

.70

.80

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Index

Val

ue


Outlets 2009-2018


Remain same

75


Expenditures on Advertising Last

Year (Jan 2017)


1%7%

48%

36%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Major

Decrease

Slight

Decrease

Remain Same Slight

Increase

Major

Increase

Jan 2017

Index .68

Remain same

75


Expenditures on Advertising This

Year (Jan 2018)


1% 3%

46% 44%

6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Major

Decrease

Slight

Decrease

Remain Same Slight

Increase

Major

Increase

Jan 2018

Index .70

.54.57 .58

.62 .64.61

.68 .69 .68.70

.40

.50

.60

.70

.80

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Index

Val

ue


Expenditures on Advertising

2009-2018


78

Membership Survey: Largest

Response Category by % 2018

• Overall Outlook– Slightly Better 49%

• Number of Employees – No Change 58%

• Employee Pay – Slight Increase 63%

• Demand for Products – Slightly Better 44%

• New Products – No Change 48%

• Number of Outlets – No Change 83%

• Advertising Spending – No Change 46%

Population Trends

Calhoun County 2005-2016

in Thousands

112113 113 113

114

119118

117 117

116 116115

110

112

114

116

118

120

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

In T

ho

usa

nd

s


2015 - 115,620

2016 - 114,611

GDP % Change from Preceding Year

Calhoun County & State of Alabama

2007 - 20167.1%

2.5%

-3.4%

3.9%

-1.3%-1.1%

-3.5%

1.1% 0.7%2.1%

3.3%

1.6% -2.5%3.8%

3.4% 2.9% 2.4% 1.9%3.3%

2.6%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Calhoun

Alabama


Labor Force Calhoun County


51.9

49.0 49.148.0

47.5

46.246.7 46.4 46.3

45.5

45

47

49

51

53

55

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

In T

hou

san

ds


-1.73% 2016-2017

Labor Force Calhoun County

Jan – Dec 2017 in Thousands

45.6

45.845.8

45.7

45.5

45.7 45.7

45.3

45.1

45.5 45.5

45.2

45.0

45.3

45.5

45.8

46.0


In T

ho

usa

nd

s


-403 for 12

Months

83

Employment for Calhoun County


50.3

47.446.5 46.1

45.4

43.9 43.743.1 43.3 43.1

42

45

47

50

52

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

In T

hou

san

ds


-.46% 2016-2017

Employment Calhoun County

Jan – Dec 2017 in Thousands

42.2

42.7

43.1

43.4 43.3

43.043.2 43.1

43.4

43.7 43.743.5

42.0

42.5

43.0

43.5

44.0


In T

hou

san

ds


+1291 for 12 Months

Unemployment Rate for Calhoun

County 2008-2017

85

5.1%

9.9% 9.8%9.2%

8.0%7.2% 7.2%

6.9% 6.6%

5.2%

3%

5%

7%

9%

11%

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

% U

nem

plo

yed


Unemployment Rate

Calhoun County vs Alabama 2017


7.5%

6.7%

6.0%

5.0% 4.8%

5.9%5.5%

4.8%

3.8% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9%

6.8%

6.1%

5.3%

4.4% 4.2%

5.2%4.9%

4.3%

3.3% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5%

2%

4%

6%

8%


% U

nem

plo

yed

Calhoun

AL

Not Seasonally Adjusted

87

Unemployment Rate

6.1% and Below

6.2% - 7.4%

7.5% and Above

Source: Alabama Department of Labor

6.6%

Alabama Unemployment Rates

December 2016

State Ave – 5.9%

Not Seasonally

Adjusted

88

Unemployment Rate

6.5% and Below

6.6% - 7.9%

8.0% and Above

Source: Alabama Department of Labor

3.9%

Alabama Unemployment Rates

December 2017

State Ave – 3.5%

Not Seasonally

Adjusted

Employment State Peak to

Now % Change AL MSAs

Jan 07- Dec 17

0%

-18%

18%

-1%-4%

-8%-3%

-3%

10%

-1%

1%

14%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

AL

Ann

Aub

Bh

am

Deca

Doth

Flo

r

Gad

s

Hun

t

Mo

b

Mo

nt

Tusc


Employment % Change AL & AL

MSAs Dec 16- Dec 17

1.8% 2.0%

4.0%

0.9%

2.6%

0.2%

1.1%

2.4%

3.3%

0.9%1.4%

2.4%

0%

3%

5%

AL

Ann

Aub

Bh

am

Deca

Doth

Flo

r

Gad

s

Hun

t

Mo

b

Mo

nt

Tu

sc


Average Hourly Earnings Private Sector


2009-2017

$19.68 $19.86 $20.14 $20.21 $20.18 $20.73 $21.02$21.85

$22.56

$18.59$17.48

$16.22$15.31

$16.34

$18.23 $18.16$17.56 $17.05

$12

$15

$18

$21

$24

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Alabama Calhoun


95%76%

Average Hourly Earnings Private Sector


Jan – Dec 2017

22.5 22.3 22.2 22.8 22.5 22.2 22.6 22.5 22.9 23.0 22.8 23.0

17.2 17.0 17.0 16.9 17.0 16.7 17.2 17.0 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.4

$13

$16

$19

$22

$25


Alabama Calhoun


76% State Average

https://www.bls.gov/sae/

Per Capita Personal Income

Calhoun County & State Of Alabama

2007 – 2016 in $ Thousands

93Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

$29.9$30.7 $30.1 $30.7

$31.5 $31.7 $31.4$32.4

$33.5$34.4

$32.6$33.4

$32.7$33.7

$34.7$35.5 $35.8

$36.9$38.2 $38.9

$25

$30

$35

$40

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Thou

san

ds

Calhoun Alabama

92%

88%

https://www.bea.gov/itable/

State Sales Tax Collections

Calhoun County FY 09-10 – FY 16-17

in $ Millions

$21.40

$25.24

$28.00$29.12

$31.19 $31.02 $30.50$31.34

$20

$23

$25

$28

$30

$33

09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17

In $

Mil

lio

ns

94Source: AL Dept of Revenue

+2.72% Fiscal Yr

State Use Tax Collections

Calhoun County FY 09-10 – FY 16-17

in $ Millions

$1.10 $1.08 $1.08

$0.93

$1.19$1.12

$0.84

$1.27

$0.7

$0.9

$1.1

$1.3

$1.5

09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17

In $

Mil

lio

ns


+50.6% Fiscal Yr

Simplified Sellers Use Tax Allocations

Calhoun County FY 2016-2017

Calhoun

County

$324,741

52%

Anniston

$104,702

17%

Oxford

$96,735

15%

Jacksonville

$56,859

9%

Piedmont

$22,104

4%

Weaver

$13,766

2%

Ohatchee

$5,301

1%


$624,210 FY 16-17

State Lodging Tax Collections from

Calhoun County FY09-10 – FY16-17

in $ Thousands

$778.4$824.5

$771.6

$847.1$883.6

$915.1

$1,022.8

$1,141.0

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17

In $

Thou

san

ds


+11.56% Fiscal Yr

Tourism Economic Impact

State of Alabama 2016

• Est over 25.8 Million visitors 2016

• Spending $13.8 Billion in 2016

• Represent 6.8% of State GDP

• Est 179,644 jobs (9.1% of non agricultural)

• Generated $836 Million State/Local Tax Revenues

98Source: Alabama Tourism Department, 2016

Tourism Expenditures in AL

2006-2016 in $ Billions

$8.5

$9.3 $9.6$9.3 $9.1

$10.2 $10.7$11.0

$11.8

$12.7$13.4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Bil

lio

ns

99Source: Alabama Tourism Department, 2015

Up Avg of 5.81%/Yr Last 10 yrs

Tourism Impact in Calhoun County

Jobs & Earnings 14-16

891

933

994

800

850

900

950

1,000

14 15 16

Jobs

$21.8

$23.4

$25.1

$20

$23

$25

$28

14 15 16

Ear

nin

gs

in M

illi

on

s100Source: Alabama Tourism Department, 2015

Up 6.5% 15-16 Up 7.3% 15-16

101

Housing Statistics

Calhoun County 2016 vs 2017

2016 2017 % Change

Average

Price$134,558 $138,034 +2.6%

Avg Days on

Market 134 112 -16.3%

Total Homes

Sold 1,510 1,646 +9.00%Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate

http://www.acre.culverhouse.ua.edu/markets/calhoun-county

102

114109

88

7681 80 82

90

102

116126

138

65

80

95

110

125

140

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Hom

e S

ales

/Mo

nth

Average Number of Home Sales Per

Month Calhoun County 2006-2017

Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate

101.88 Avg - -

http://www.acre.culverhouse.ua.edu/research/reports

Sales, Use & Lodging Tax

Annual Total FY09-10 – FY16-17

Anniston in $ Millions

$17.1 $17.5

$19.0

$21.2 $20.8 $20.6

$22.0 $22.3

$16

$18

$20

$22

$24

09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17

In $

Mil

lio

ns

103Source: City of Anniston * increase in sales and use tax rate from 4% to 5% effective April 2012 (25%)

+1.35% FY 16-17*

*


Oct - Dec 2016 vs Oct – Dec 2017

Anniston in $ Millions

104Source: City of Anniston

$5.87 $5.83

$4.0

$4.5

$5.0

$5.5

$6.0

Oct16-Dec16 Oct17-Dec17

In $

Mil

lions

-.7% O-D 16vs17

Sales & Use Tax Collected by AL


Oxford in $ Millions

$24.3 $24.5$25.3 $25.5

$26.6

$28.4

$31.0 $31.5

$18

$21

$23

$26

$28

$31

$33

09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17

In $

Mil

lio

ns

105

+1.6% FY 16-17

Source: AL Dept of Revenue

Sales & Use Tax


Oxford in $ Millions

$7.49 $7.50

$6.0

$6.5

$7.0

$7.5


In $

Mil

lions

106Source: City of Oxford

+.16% O-D 16vs17

Sales & Use Tax


Jacksonville in $ Millions

$5.3$5.5

$6.5$6.8

$7.0 $7.0$7.3 $7.3

$4.5

$5.5

$6.5

$7.5

09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17

In $

Mil

lio

ns

107Source: City of Jacksonville

+.46% FY 16-17

Sales & Use Tax FYTD

Oct - Dec 2016 vs 2017

Jacksonville in $ Millions

$1.919$1.937

$1.80

$1.90

$2.00


In $

Mil

lio

ns

108

+0.9% O-D 16vs17

Source: City of Jacksonville

Sales & Use Tax

Annual Total FY09-10 - FY16-17

Ohatchee in $ Thousands

$444

$534

$489

$550 $545$571

$549

$618

$400

$450

$500

$550

$600

$650

09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17

In $

Thou

san

ds

109Source: City of Ohatchee

+12.6% FY 16-17



Piedmont in $ Millions

$1.37 $1.36$1.45 $1.46 $1.46

$1.75

$1.89 $1.91

$1.3

$1.4

$1.5

$1.6

$1.7

$1.8

$1.9

$2.0

09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17

In $

Mil

lion

s

110Source: City of Piedmont

+.97% FY 16-17

*

*1% tax increase Jan 1, 2015

*



Piedmont in $ Thousands

$458

$397

$350

$400

$450

$500


In $

Th

ou

sands

111Source: City of Piedmont

-13.35% O-D 16vs17

Sales, Use Tax


Weaver in $ Thousands

$245 $234

$289

$343

$444

$571 $555$594

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17

In $

Thou

san

ds

112Source: City of Weaver

+7.07% FY 16-17



Weaver in $ Thousands

$144.52

$175.74

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180


In $

Th

ou

sands

113Source: City of Weaver

+21% O-D 16vs17

114

Calhoun County:

Economic Summary• Membership Survey- Positive “Slightly Better”

• Population- Estimated Down Slightly

• Employment- +1291 Jan-Dec 2017 (+626 Jan-Dec 2016)

• Unemployment- Dec 17 – 3.5% (Dec 16 – 6.6%)

• Municipal Revenues- Up FY 16-17; Mixed to Flat FYTD 17-18

• Housing Market- Up 9.00% Total Homes Sold

• Tourism Revenues/Employment – Up; Lodging Taxes +11.56%

New & Expanding

Industries 2017

Near Atlanta, Near Birmingham,

Near Perfect

Calhoun County

Economic Development Council

115

• 40 new jobs

• $4.5 million

investment

116

Vehicle Innovation Center

$25 million investment

117

• $250,000 investment

• 25 new jobs

STRYKER

118

$5 Million Expansion

119

• 150 new jobs!

120

$5.4 million

Investment

121

Advantage Site Designation

Mass Grading and New Entrance

Oxford West Industrial Park

122

Five Years

$610 million

in new

investment

Over 2000

new jobs!

Calhoun County


Industrial

Parks

123

Near Atlanta, Near Birmingham,

Near Perfect

Calhoun County


124

125

Calhoun County:

Economic Summary• Membership Survey- Positive “Slightly Better”

• Population- Estimated Down Slightly

• Employment- +1291 Jan-Dec 2017 (+626 Jan-Dec 2016)

• Unemployment- Dec 17 – 3.5% (Dec 16 – 6.6%)

• Municipal Revenues- Up FY 16-17; Mixed to Flat FYTD 17-18

• Housing Market- Up 9% Total Homes Sold

• Tourism Revenues/Employment – Up; Lodging Taxes +11.6%

2018 economic forum - jsu.edu forum 2018 - final presentation.pdf2018 economic forum calhoun county...

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