2017 retail outlook - cgs.niu.edu · • rising stock market • lower food/gas prices “american...

2017RETAIL OUTLOOK

ABOUT THE RETAIL COACH WE RECRUIT RETAIL.

2017 RETAIL TRENDSIMPACTING YOUR COMMUNITY

2016 HOLIDAYSBigger-than-ever holiday discounts

Online sales transactions with promotions increased 79 percent

Retailers reduced inventory so deals won’t last long

This is nothing new – just more of it in 2016.

Post-election retailsales spike?

• Thought of higher wages• Rising stock market• Lower food/gas prices

“American consumers are once again proving many of the pundits wrong, as shoppers flock to websites and to stores – and notjust for returns.”

Sales growth forecast increased form4.1 to 4.9 percent.

Source: Consumer Growth PartnersNew Canaan, CT

Retail is undergoing many changes, challenges, disruptivetechnologies, crises and opportunities

2017 RETAIL TRENDS & FACTORS 2 BASIC FACTORS IMPACTING RETAILER DEMAND/EXPANSION

THE ECONOMYStrong activity on the far ends of the economic spectrum

Discount ‐‐‐ Luxury

1 2ENCROACHMENT

OF E-COMMERCE

THE ECONOMY

2017 RETAIL TRENDS & FACTORS BASIC FACTORS IMPACTING RETAILER DEMAND/EXPANSION

ENCROACHMENT OF

E-COMMERCE

TRUMP


THE ECONOMY ENCROACHMENT OF E-COMMERCE

Crime

TRUMP


THE ECONOMY ENCROACHMENT OF

E-COMMERCETRUMP

Crime Millennials

2017 RETAIL TRENDS & FACTORS HIGHEST ACTIVITY ON BOTH ENDS OF THE SPECTRUM Source: JLL Florida 2016

VALUE VS. LUXURYVALUE IS NOW FOR EVERYONE

The market is drastically impacted by low-income families plus higher-income shoppers who’ve now developed a taste for discounts.

Uber-wealthy neverquit spending onluxury items.

THE ECONOMY

2017 RETAIL TRENDS & FACTORS ONLINE RETAIL SALES HAVE NEARLY DOUBLED SINCE 2010

Source: RetailMetrix/Mastercard

E - COMMERCE

2017 RETAIL TRENDS & FACTORS THE ONLINE IMPACT Source: Forrester Research

2017 RETAIL TRENDS & FACTORS FAMILIAR BRANDS IMPACTED BY ONLINE SALES

CLOSING STORES AND DOWNSIZING RETAIL SQUARE

FOOTAGECLOSING DOZENS OF STORES

ACROSS THE COUNTRY

WILL CLOSE MORE THAN 100 STORES IN 2016

ELIMINATING HUNDREDS OF JOBS TO RESPOND TO

LACKLUSTER IN‐STORE SALES

CLOSING 68 STORES, CUT10,000 JOBS, PLAN TO REACH 30% OF SALES

ONLINE

2017 RETAIL TRENDS & FACTORS THE ONLINE IMPACT

“Nothing has changed in the

dynamic going into 2017

from what we were in 2016,

where bricks-and-mortar

retail is struggling. There is a

shift online. Sure, a lot of the

bulk of retail spending is still

in stores, but the shift, the

trend is still going to online,

and the brick-and-mortar

retailers really haven’t found

a way to capitalize on that in

the face of the competition

from Amazon.”

Source: Shannon Pettypiece, Bloomberg


REMEMBER THE EARLIER SLIDE?


"E-commerce is a channel, like any form of distribution: growth does not continue at a rapid, double-digit rate forever.”-Michael J. Silverstein, Senior Partner, BCG

2017 RETAIL TRENDS & FACTORS TRUMP EFFECT

2017 RETAIL TRENDS & FACTORS MILLENNIALS

91% of retail brands use two or more social media platforms


Each Millennial spends

$2,000on average online each year


91% of retail brands use two or more social media platforms

WHATABOUT

INDEPENDENTRETAILERS?

Retail paradigm shift occurring

Real Estate - Centric Consumer - Centric EntertainmentExperience - Centric

Class A Retail: Quality, high-tier retailers; new construction and upscale finishes; great location; regional destination; entertainment venues; upscale amenities; food option diversity high rents.

Class B Retail: Older than Class A; well located; strong tenant mix; good access; good arterial traffic counts; well maintained and managed; lesser rents; developer targets for reinvestment.

Class C Retail:Retail: Even older; possible demographics shifts in area; low rents; struggling with occupancy; discount retail tenant-oriented; alternative uses to drive cash flow driven; change-in-use candidates.

Retail real estate classifications


TODAY’S CONSUMERS

PREFER EASE AND EXPERIENCE“Shopping in a physical store should be a fun, social, and rewarding experience that can't be replicated online."

Mikael ThygesenChief Marketing Officer, Simon

THE WINNERS:Multichannel retailers who recognize the nuances in how people want to

purchase their particular product.

2016 - 2017 RETAIL TRENDS & FACTORS STORE GROWTH

9.8% 8.8%

CELL PHONE DENSITY STUDY: FUNKY BUDDAH BREWERY

RETAIL GROWTH 2016-2017• FITNESS/HEALTH/SPA CONCEPTS• DRUG STORES• THRIFT STORES• GROCERY (SMALLER FORMAT)

‐DISCOUNT, ETHNIC, ORGANIC, UPSCALE• FAST FOOD• FAST CASUAL DINING• TRENDY, ”COOL STREETS” BRANDS

RETAIL CONTRACTION 2016-2017• BOOKSTORES• VIDEO STORES• DO‐IT‐YOURSELF HOME STORES• MID‐PRICED APPAREL• MID‐PRICED GROCERY• OFFICE SUPPLIES• Stores

2017 RETAIL TRENDS & FACTORS “COOL STREETS FACTOR”

EXPERIENTIAL RETAIL

SHINOLA

Is it a bicycle store?Is it a watch store?Is it a furnishings store?

It’s a Lifestyle Store.

And it’s Interesting!

Source: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELDRETAIL TRENDS TO WATCH 2016


EXPERIENTIAL RETAIL

WHOLE FOODS 365 CONCEPTSmaller Concept with Record Stores, Tattoo Parlors, and Hipster Apparel

URBAN OUTFITTERS / PIZZERIA VETRIOffering an Interactive Shopping Experience while snacking on a piece of pizza and a cold beer



EXPERIENTIAL RETAIL


NATIONAL FRANCHISES ARE ATTRACTING MORE ENTREPRENEURS

The introduction of new, proven concepts with a lower risk profile is spurring growth, particularly in urban/downtown districts.

Source: Entrepreneur Magazine

2017 RETAIL TRENDS & FACTORS INDEPENDENT RETAIL GROWTH

Don’t sacrifice your independent retail businesses while chasing the big-boxes

COMMUNITYRETAILSTRATEGYTAKE A LONG-TERM APPROACH

RETAIL RECRUITMENT IS A PROCESS, NOT AN EVENT.

c) 662.401.4327o) 662.844.2155

[email protected]

800.851.0962

C. Kelly Cofer, CCIM - RETAIL STRATEGY

2017 retail outlook - cgs.niu.edu · • rising stock market • lower food/gas prices “american...

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