2017 RESIDENTIAL SOLAR MARKET OUTLOOK

Stefan Linder

Sunrun

1/26/2017

San Diego, CA

TOP 3 TRENDS IN RESIDENTIAL SOLAR

1) Material cost improvements will flow through to higher customers savings, and will facilitate new markets

2) Market growth slowing to a more sustainable rate

3) Other states will grow faster than California

AGENDA

• Sizing the market

• Market shares

• Pricing trends

RESIDENTIAL SOLAR PENETRATION IN KEY MARKETS

Source: GTM Research, US Census

NATIONAL FORECAST (MW)

= ~6GW, 1M systems

Source: GTM Research

NATIONAL FORECAST (MW)

= ~6GW, 1M systems

Source: GTM Research

OTHER STATES ARE NOW GROWING FASTER THAN CALIFORNIA

= ~6GW, 1M systems

Source: GTM Research

KEY STATE RESIDENTIAL FORECAST (MW)

Source: GTM Research

AGENDA

• Sizing the market

• Market shares

• Pricing trends

MARKET SHARE BY INSTALLER% OF MW INSTALLED

Source: GTM Research, public disclosureNote: Sunrun excluded prior to Q1 ‘15

THIRD-PARTY OWNED (TPO) MARKET SHARE, Q3 2016

Source: GTM Research

AGENDA

• Sizing the market

• Market shares

• Pricing trends

REPORTED CAPACITY-WEIGHTED AVERAGE SYSTEM PRICES ($/W)

SYSTEM COSTS ($/W)

Source: GTM Research, SolarCity, Vivint Solar

Approx $0.25-$0.40/W

opportunity to reduce

material costs in 2017

AVERAGE SYSTEM COST, Q3 2015-Q3 2016 ($/W)

THANK YOU!

QUESTIONS?