2017 annual operating plan april 1 runoff forecastcfs- cubic feet per second (roughly 7.5...
TRANSCRIPT
2017 Annual Operating Plan
April 1 Runoff Forecast
Albuquerque District
DefinitionsNative/Natural Rio Grande water: Water that comes directly from the Rio Grande Basin
San Juan-Chama water: Water that is imported into the Rio Grande Basin from the San Juan Basin through the San Juan-Chama Project
Rio Grande Compact: Agreement between the states of Colorado, New Mexico, and Texas that apportions Rio Grande water between the three states.
Article 7: Section of the Rio Grande Compact that dictates storage in reservoirs. If Rio Grande Project storage is less than 400,000 ac-ft at Elephant Butte and Caballo, no storage of Rio Grande water can take place at El Vado except to satisfy Native American needs or as part of the Emergency Drought Water Agreement.
Definitions (cont.)cfs- cubic feet per second (roughly 7.5 gallons/second)
Acre foot = approximately 326,000 gallons or 43,560 cubic feet
Hydrograph – graph of flow rate per unit time
The District – Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District (MRGCD)
The City – City of Albuquerque now Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority (ABCWUA)
NRCS – Natural Resources Conservation Service
Supplemental water – Water leased by Reclamation to augment flows in support of the Rio Grande Silvery Minnow as outlined in the 2016 Biological Opinion
P&P – Prior & Paramount
What Drives the ProcessVolume Forecast from the NRCSBased on snowpack, soil moisture, climate forecast
Choose similar year based on similar volumeActual hydrograph vs. average hydrographCan tweak timing of hydrograph to best match forecasted conditions (warm Spring vs. cool Spring)
Inflows/Outflows based on nature and policies
Article VII restrictionsFlood control and channel capacityTiming of water deliveriesDemand curves from water users
Similar Year Hydrographs
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
3/1 3/16 3/31 4/15 4/30 5/15 5/30 6/14 6/29 7/14 7/29
Rio Chama @ La Puente
1957
1965
1980
1983
1986
2005
2017
AVG
1965: 322,0241986: 326,5432005: 341,8791983: 342,9721980: 346,3141957: 352,500(acre-feet)
Operated By:
Dams:
Reclamation Corps Water Supply Recreation
Flood Control
Sediment Control
HERON
EL VADO
ABIQUIU
NAMBE FALLS
GALISTEO
COCHITI
JEMEZ CANYON
ELEPHANT BUTTE
2016: The Year in Review
Heron Reservoir
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Flow
[cfs
]
Inflow Actual Inflow
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Flow
[cfs
]
Outflow Actual outflow
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Stor
age
[ac-
ft]
Storage Actual Storage
El Vado Reservoir
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Flow
[cfs
]
Inflow Actual Inflow
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Flow
[cfs
]
Outflow Actual outflow
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
Stor
age
[ac-
ft]
Storage Actual Storage
Abiquiu Reservoir
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Flow
[cfs
]
Inflow Actual Inflow
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Flow
[cfs
]
Outflow Actual outflow
50000
70000
90000
110000
130000
150000
170000
Stor
age
[ac-
ft]
Storage Actual Storage
Cochiti Reservoir
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Flow
[cfs
]
Inflow Actual Inflow
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Flow
[cfs
]
Outflow Actual outflow
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
Stor
age
[ac-
ft]
Storage Actual Storage
Elephant Butte Reservoir
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Flow
[cfs
]
Inflow Actual Inflow
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Flow
[cfs
]
Outflow Actual outflow
20000
70000
120000
170000
220000
270000
320000
370000
420000
470000
Stor
age
[ac-
ft]
Storage Actual Storage
Current Snow Conditions
SNOTEL Locations
Rio Chama Snow Data
048
121620
11/7
/201
6
12/7
/201
6
1/7/
2017
2/7/
2017
3/7/
2017
4/7/
2017
5/7/
2017
Snow
Wat
er E
quiv
alen
t & P
reci
p (in
.) Chamita SNOTEL 2016-17Elev. 8400'
16-17 SWE Data Avg. SWE 16-17 Precip. Avg. Precip.
Rio Chama Snow Data
05
101520253035404550
11/7
/201
6
12/7
/201
6
1/7/
2017
2/7/
2017
3/7/
2017
4/7/
2017
5/7/
2017
Snow
Wat
er E
quiv
alen
t & P
reci
p (in
.)
Cumbres SNOTEL Site 2016-17Elev. 10,400'
16-17 SWE Data Avg. SWE 16-17 Precip. Avg. Precip.
Rio Chama Snow Comparison
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
11/7
12/7 1/7
2/7
3/7
4/7
5/7
Tota
l Bas
in S
WE
(inch
es)
Rio Chama Basin
15-16
16-17
Average
Similar Snowpack Years
0
20
40
60
80
100
SWE
(in)
2017 vs. Similar Years, and Average Rio Chama Snowpack Index
Average
2017
1984
2008
1983
1993
1995
1982
2005
Runoff Volumes (ac-ft)1995: 455,0881993: 385,8411983: 342,9722005: 341,8752008: 320,7791984: 315,6891982: 303,219
Rio Grande Snow Data
02468
1012
11/7
/201
6
12/7
/201
6
1/7/
2017
2/7/
2017
3/7/
2017
4/7/
2017
5/7/
2017
Snow
Wat
er E
quiv
alen
t & P
reci
p (in
.) Upper Rio Grande SNOTEL 2016-17Elev. 9,400'
'16-17 SWE data Avg. SWE '16-17 Precip. data Avg. Precip.
Rio Grande Snow Data
05
1015202530
11/7
/201
6
12/7
/201
6
1/7/
2017
2/7/
2017
3/7/
2017
4/7/
2017
5/7/
2017
Snow
Wat
er E
quiv
alen
t & P
reci
p (in
.)Beartown SNOTEL 2016-17
Elev. 11,600'
'16-17 SWE data Avg. SWE '16-17 Precip. data Avg. Precip.
Sangre de Cristo Snow Data
02468
1012141618
11/7
/201
6
11/2
1/20
16
12/5
/201
6
12/1
9/20
16
1/2/
2017
1/16
/201
7
1/30
/201
7
2/13
/201
7
2/27
/201
7
3/13
/201
7
3/27
/201
7
4/10
/201
7
4/24
/201
7
5/8/
2017
5/22
/201
7
Snow
Wat
er E
quiv
alen
t & P
reci
p (in
.)
Gallegos Peak SNOTEL 2016-17Elev. 9,800'
16-17 SWE data Avg. SWE 16-17 Precip. Avg. Precip.
Sangre de Cristo Snow Data
02468
101214161820
11/7
/201
6
11/2
1/20
16
12/5
/201
6
12/1
9/20
16
1/2/
2017
1/16
/201
7
1/30
/201
7
2/13
/201
7
2/27
/201
7
3/13
/201
7
3/27
/201
7
4/10
/201
7
4/24
/201
7
5/8/
2017
5/22
/201
7
Snow
Wat
er E
quiv
alen
t & P
reci
p (in
.)
Wesner Springs SNOTEL 2016-17Elev. 11,120'
16-17 SWE data Avg. SWE 16-17 Precip. Avg. Precip.
Monsoon Season Temperature Outlook
Monsoon Season Precipitation Outlook
2017 Water Operations Modeling
Major Assumptions• April 1 50% most probable forecast• Storage of water for Prior & Paramount
lands• Out of Article VII restrictions for several
weeks
April Forecast DataMost
Probable Percent of Average
April 1 50% Probability
Volume, ac-ft
2016 2017 2017
Rio Grande nr Del Norte 84% 109% 560,000
El Vado Reservoir Inflow 60% 160% 360,000
Rio Grande at Otowi 60% 128% 920,000
Nambe Reservoir Inflow 71% 89% 5,800
Jemez blw Jemez Dam 44% 74% 25,000
Rio Blanco @ Diversion 76% 117% 63,000
Navajo River @ Diversion 75% 115% 75,000
Historic Mar-Jul Flow Volumes at Otowi
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2000000
(ac-
ft)
March-July Volumes at Otowi(2017 - NRCS forecast volumes)
April Forecast - (Mar-Jul vol)50% probability - 920,000 ac-ft90% probability - 675,000 ac-ft10% probability - 1,200,000 ac-ft30-year average: 720,000 ac-ft
Heron Reservoir
Proposed 2017 Heron OperationsStorage Capacity=401,000 ac-ft
Reservoir will rise up to 25 feet from beginning of year to end
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Stor
age
[ac-
ft]
Flow
[cfs
]
2017 Heron Operations
Inflow
Outflow
Storage
El Vado Reservoir
Proposed 2017 El Vado Operations
Lake Level: Could finish the year 35’ higher than current levels
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Stor
age
[ac-
ft]
Flow
[cfs
]
2017 El Vado Operations
Inflow
Outflow
Storage
ABIQUIU LAKE
Proposed 2017 Abiquiu Operations
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Stor
age
[ac-
ft]
Flow
[cfs
]
2017 Abiquiu Operations
Inflow
Outflow
Storage
Estimated Hydrograph at Embudo
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Flow
[cfs
]
2017 Flow at Embudo
COCHITI LAKE
Proposed 2017 Cochiti Operations
41000
42000
43000
44000
45000
46000
47000
48000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Stor
age
[ac-
ft]
Flow
[cfs
]
2017 Cochiti Operations
Inflow
Outflow
Storage
Estimated Hydrograph at Central Ave.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Flow
[cfs
]
2017 Flow at Central Ave Gage
Estimated Flow at San Acacia
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Flow
[cfs
]
2017 Flow at San Acacia Gage
Proposed Elephant Butte Operations
Maximum Elevation = 4340.35’ (6/17). Minimum Elevation= 4311.25’ (9/30)
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Stor
age
[ac-
ft]
Flow
[cfs
]
2017 Elephant Butte Operations
Inflow
Outflow
Storage
4280.00
4290.00
4300.00
4310.00
4320.00
4330.00
4340.00
4350.00
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
5000001-
Jan-
17
1-Fe
b-17
1-M
ar-1
7
1-A
pr-1
7
1-M
ay-1
7
1-Ju
n-17
1-Ju
l-17
1-A
ug-1
7
1-S
ep-1
7
1-O
ct-1
7
1-N
ov-1
7
1-D
ec-1
7
Elev
atio
n in
feet
Stor
age
in a
cre-
feet
Date
Elephant Butte Storage and Pool Elevation
Storage
Projected Storage
Projected Pool Elevation
Pool Elevation
Provisional- Subject to ChangeProvisional- Subject to Change
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1-Ja
n-17
1-Fe
b-17
1-M
ar-1
7
1-A
pr-1
7
1-M
ay-1
7
1-Ju
n-17
1-Ju
l-17
1-A
ug-1
7
1-S
ep-1
7
1-O
ct-1
7
1-N
ov-1
7
1-D
ec-1
7
Flow
in c
fs
Date
Elephant Butte Inflow and Outflow
Inflow
Projected Outflow
Projected Inflow
Outflow
Provisional- Subject to ChangeProvisional- Subject to Change
4280.00
4290.00
4300.00
4310.00
4320.00
4330.00
4340.00
4350.00
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
1-M
ar-1
7
1-Ap
r-17
1-M
ay-1
7
1-Ju
n-17
1-Ju
l-17
1-Au
g-17
1-Se
p-17
1-O
ct-1
7
Elev
atio
n in
feet
Stor
age
in a
cre-
feet
Date
Elephant Butte Storage and Pool Elevation
Storage
Projected Storage
Projected Pool Elevation
Pool Elevation
Provisional- Subject to ChangeProvisional- Subject to Change
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1-M
ar-1
7
8-M
ar-1
7
15-M
ar-1
7
22-M
ar-1
7
29-M
ar-1
7
5-A
pr-1
7
12-A
pr-1
7
19-A
pr-1
7
26-A
pr-1
7
3-M
ay-1
7
10-M
ay-1
7
17-M
ay-1
7
24-M
ay-1
7
31-M
ay-1
7
7-Ju
n-17
14-J
un-1
7
21-J
un-1
7
28-J
un-1
7
5-Ju
l-17
12-J
ul-1
7
19-J
ul-1
7
26-J
ul-1
7
2-A
ug-1
7
9-A
ug-1
7
16-A
ug-1
7
23-A
ug-1
7
30-A
ug-1
7
6-S
ep-1
7
13-S
ep-1
7
20-S
ep-1
7
27-S
ep-1
7
4-O
ct-1
7
11-O
ct-1
7
18-O
ct-1
7
25-O
ct-1
7
Flow
in c
fs
Date
Elephant Butte Inflow and Outflow
Inflow
Projected Outflow
Projected Inflow
Outflow
Provisional- Subject to ChangeProvisional- Subject to Change
4120.00
4125.00
4130.00
4135.00
4140.00
4145.00
4150.00
4155.00
4160.00
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
800001-
Jan-
17
1-Fe
b-17
1-M
ar-1
7
1-A
pr-1
7
1-M
ay-1
7
1-Ju
n-17
1-Ju
l-17
1-A
ug-1
7
1-S
ep-1
7
1-O
ct-1
7
1-N
ov-1
7
1-D
ec-1
7
Elev
atio
n in
feet
Stor
age
in a
cre-
feet
Date
Caballo Storage and Pool Elevation
Storage
Projected Storage
Pool Elevation
Projected PoolElevation
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1-Ja
n-17
1-Fe
b-17
1-M
ar-1
7
1-A
pr-1
7
1-M
ay-1
7
1-Ju
n-17
1-Ju
l-17
1-A
ug-1
7
1-S
ep-1
7
1-O
ct-1
7
1-N
ov-1
7
1-D
ec-1
7
Flow
in c
fs
Date
Caballo Inflow and Outflow
Inflow
Outflow
Projected Inflow
Projected Outflow
Provisional- Subject to ChangeProvisional- Subject to Change
4120.00
4125.00
4130.00
4135.00
4140.00
4145.00
4150.00
4155.00
4160.00
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
800001-
Mar
-17
1-A
pr-1
7
1-M
ay-1
7
1-Ju
n-17
1-Ju
l-17
1-A
ug-1
7
1-S
ep-1
7
1-O
ct-1
7
Elev
atio
n in
feet
Stor
age
in a
cre-
feet
Date
Caballo Storage and Pool Elevation
Storage
Projected Storage
Projected PoolElevationPool Elevation
Provisional- Subject to ChangeProvisional- Subject to Change
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1-M
ar-1
7
1-A
pr-1
7
1-M
ay-1
7
1-Ju
n-17
1-Ju
l-17
1-A
ug-1
7
1-S
ep-1
7
1-O
ct-1
7
Flow
in c
fs
Date
Caballo Inflow and Outflow
Inflow
Outflow
Projected Inflow
ProjectedOutflow
Provisional- Subject to ChangeProvisional- Subject to Change