progressheat · 2017. 5. 4. · • individual gas boilers + compression chillers • demand for...
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progRESsHEAT Highlights from current state of
analysis and preliminary conclusions
Marie Münster, DTU 24th October 2016
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Outline
• Conclusions • Case presentations (preliminary results) • Key success factors
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Conclusion
Energy efficient heating and cooling consists of: • Energy savings • Individual and central green energy • Efficient district energy Efficient green district energy solutions are cheapest for society - when ensuring high connection rate • should also be cheapest for individuals Interesting DH supply options are: • Waste heat • Waste-to-Energy • Solar heat • Heat pumps • Sustainable biomass Energy savings and individual green energy should be made easily available for the rest
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Local cases
3) Biomass CHP Heat savings
6) Waste incineration Solar thermal
5) Excess heat from refinery PV+AC+HP
1) Waste heat utilisation Increase connection rate
4) Geothermal energy Reinvesting in grid
2) Reinvestment in DH grid Reincreasing connection rate
www.progressheat.eu
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Case Ansfelden - Setting the scene
Title - Date
Current biomass district heating network
Industrial site with waste-heat potential
New development area
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Title - Date
Case Ansfelden - Feasible initiatives
Decreasing heat demand may lead to increasing heat prices for DH: • Example: old (1945-1980), small (around 500m²) multi-family-houses
1. Heat saving is cheapest option: -34% in demand
2. DH supply costs (variable and fixed costs) increase by 22%
3. Heat supply cost from individual biomass boilers stays constant 4. Cheapest combination: heat saving with decentral biomass boiler Additional analyses to be carried out including other heat generation options and settings
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
€/MWh
Sensitivity of variable part of production cost when changing heat demand
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Title - Date
Case Ansfelden - Key success factor
• Solution: waste heat utilisation? – Interest from paper industry? – Owner/ risk taker?
• Increase connection rate
– Subsidies for biomass DH – And for connecting to DH?
• Climate goal for new local settlement
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Case Brasov - Setting the scene
Title - Date
Former industrial sites Changing to commerce or settlement area
• Old district heating system formerly supplying industry and households
• Industry closed down 1990 • Now overdimensioned
and unrelyable • Big losses in network (>50%) • Split ownership of grid • and heat generation • Bad image of district heating • Change to individual
gas boiler
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Title - Date
Case Brasov - Feasible initiatives
Scenario of renewing the network until 2030 • Estimated additional investments of 55 Mio € • Drop of losses from >50% to 10% • Assumption that saved heat can be sold to additional costumers increase of DH price of only +12%
Scenario of renewing the network until 2030 and use whole capacity of supply units to connect additional costumers decrease of DH price by -22%
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Title - Date
Case Brasov - Key success factor
• New settlement with mandatory connection to DH
• Municipal ownership of DH grid? – Long-term investment horizon of a strategic investor is
required (e.g. the municipality)
• Clear and stable contracts with heat suppliers (if
different from grid owner)
• New image for DH
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Municipality of Helsingør
• Northeastern part of the Zealand island, Denmark
• 122 km2 • 62.000 inhabitants in 2013 • Total CO2 emissions: 5.6 tCO2 eq. per cap.
• DH based on natural gas CHP and waste incineration
Heat supply types in 2013
DH
Oil
Ngas
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Helsingør - Feasible initiatives
Scenarios • BAU: biomass CHP being built • RES (no fuel oil or ngas boilers) • HP (heatpumps and heat storage) Perspectives • A - Simple socio-economic • B - Private economic (incl tax)
Biomass CHP + DH expansion is private economically feasible (from 35 to 53%) (no tax on biomass) 30-40% heat savings are private economically feasible; mainly - in old buildings - outside DH areas
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Helsingør Key success factors
• Zero tax on biomass - and subsidy for CHPs that generate electricity using biomass
• Heat supply zoning - and proving that DH is more socio-economically feasible
• Loans with 1.5% interest rate guaranteed by the municipality • Non-profit rule for DH companies • Thermal renovations happen together with other renovations
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Municipality of Litoměřice
Location Northern part of the Czech Republic Area 1 340 km2 Inhabitants 24.000 in 2013 CO2 136 ktCO2 eq. (2013). 5.7 tCO2 eq. per cap. Heat demand used in model
132,475
106,399
3,013 LitomericeDH
LitomericeNatural gas
LitomericeBiomass
55%
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Litoměřice Feasible initiatives
Scenarios • BAU • Exp - DH expansion • Exp Geo - DH expansion and geothermal CHP plant
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0BAU ALT exp ALT exp geo
EUR
Mill
ione
n
Net present value of scenario 2015-2050, 5% discount rate with tax
Net cash from operation and investments Financial payments
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Litoměřice Key success factors
• Ownership of DH plant - or clear terms of access to the DH grid
• New image of DH: Consumers need to see key numbers on cost and other relevant inputs (such as CO2/MWh or jobs/year)
• Cost savings possible through conversion to DH with construction of geothermal plant.
• Risk management related to exploring geothermal energy
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Matosinhos
• Focus area: – Shopping mall and large stores
• Individual gas boilers + compression chillers • Demand for cooling three times higher than heating
– Residential area under construction – Refinery as potential excess heat source – No DHC infrastructure in the city and surroundings
• Energy demand in focus area: – Cooling: 28 GWh/a (at right bottom in blue) – Heating: 15 GWh/a
• Scenario analysis focuses on: – Role of solar thermal, PV and HP – Economic viability of DHC – Connection of refinery for excess heat use
• Simple socio-economic perspective: – 1.5% discount rate, no taxes, no externalities
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Matosinhos - Feasible initiatives: Results for LCOH and CO2
5,989 5,989
5,477
4,109
0
4,076
00102030405060708090100110120130
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1. Status quo
2. Status quo
(incl. capital cost)
3. Status quo + solar thermal
4. Heat pump
5. Heat pump +
PV
6. Heat pump + solar thermal
8. Refinery
waste heat
LCO
H [e
ror/
MW
h]
CO 2
em
issio
ns [
t/a]
CO2 emission [t CO2/a] LCOH Heating [eur/MWh] LCOH Cooling [eur/MWh]
Decentral units / no DHC DHC
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Matosinhos Key success factors
• Using excess heat from refinery seems very promising – close to city and not yet used – Estimated sufficient to supply focus area – Can be an opportunity to establish DH grid („door opener“) – However:
• No tradition/ experience with DH in Portugal (only one network in Lisbon) • Uncertainty about future perspective of refinery
• Photovoltaic can be an option to decarbonize heating & cooling based on decentral
heat pumps and compression chillers – High share of cooling -> el demand equally distributed across year – Building roofs (plus parking roofs) provide enough space – Current estimates with annual net metering (-> explore real time self
consumption) – Attractive tariffs for HP and PV crucial
• Both options to be explored more in detail in phase II of the analysis!
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Herten
• 2 divided DH grids: – North: fed by coal CHP from transmission grid – South: fed by waste incineration
• Several distribution networks individually connected to DH transmission line
• Simple socio-economic perspective: – 1.5% discount rate, no taxes, no externalities
2 DH scenarios:
1. Constant connection 2. Extending connection so that
total heat demand remains relatively constant (see right)
Building type 2014 2030 2050
Detached house 14% 14% 14% Terraced house 25% 25% 91% Apartment building 40% 59% 100% Large apartment building 55% 100% 100%
Scenario 2: DH share by building type
Jung Stadtkonzepte, 2013
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Herten - Feasible solutions: Solar thermal DH
Costs Land 5,30 EUR/m² Collector field 200 to 400 EUR/m² Pit Storage 50 to 200 EUR/m³
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
20
40
60
80
100
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
16,0
18,0
20,0
22,0
24,0
26,0
28,0
30,0
Sola
r Fra
ctio
n
LCO
H [E
UR/
MW
h]
Solar field size [1000 m2]
Innenstadt
Storage size 0 m³ Storage size 2 000 m³ Storage size 10 000 m³
Storage size 60 000 m³ Without thermal storage With 2 000 m³ thermal storage
With 10 000 m³ thermal storage With 60 000 m³ thermal storage
Cost assumptions
Example sub-system „Innenstadt“ (right)
• Across all sizes: LCOH range from 20-30 euros/MWh
• Solar fraction of ~20% can be achieved at ~20 euros/MWh LCOH
• < 4,000 m²: systems without thermal storage have lowest LCOH
• 4 – 25,000 m²: systems with 2,000 m³ thermal storage have lowest LCOH
• Sufficient agricultural land is available
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Herten - Key success factors: extension of DH
-
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Year
Hea
t Pro
duct
ion
[MW
h]
LCO
H [E
ur/M
Wh]
Scenario 1Total Heat Production from RES [MWh]
Overall LCOH [eur/MWh]
-
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
0102030405060708090
Hea
t Pro
duci
ton
[MW
h]
LCO
H [E
ur/M
Wh]
Year
Scenario 2Total Heat Production from RES [MWh]
Overall LCOH [eur/MWh]
• LCOH increase with falling heat demand (top)
• LCOH slightly fall with constant heat demand (bottom)
• Connecting new buildings can keep heat demand on constant level up until 2050 at least
• Assumptions – No reinvestment – Increasing prices
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Conclusion: Key success factors (I)
Strategic local and regional heat/cool planning – Long term environmental political targets (both at local and
national level) – Info campaigns and cooperation to smoothen transition – Better geographic data availability (buildings, waste heat
potentials, cooling demands and local RE resources) – Availability, time and competences to use DH/C planning
tools at local level (part of progRESsHEAT)
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Conclusion: Key success factors (II)
Regulation – Zoning to avoid double infrastructure (of respectively
DH and natural gas) (mandatory connection in DH priority areas?)
– Ownership structures (including equal access to grids)
– Mandatory improvements of energy efficiency in buildings and industry? Including:
1. energy savings 2. efficiency improvements in DHC grids 3. individual or DHC RE use 4. DHC expansion
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Conclusion: Key success factors (III)
Economy – Access to cheap long term financing or subsidies
(also for upgrading existing grids or investing in new) – Risk taking - in particular in relation to industries – Increased heat savings in DH areas must be matched
by increased DH connection rate (or DH prices will increase)
– Non profit DH/C? (as in Denmark) – Aligned taxes, tariffs and subsidies (CO2, fuels,
electricity for HP and use of waste heat)