2017 1h / earnings release aug 01, 2017 - kordsa · global tire market global lv tire production–...
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Strictly confidential
2017 1H / Earnings Release
Aug 01, 2017
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The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled by KORDSA Teknik Tekstil Anonim şirketi (the “Company”) from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. No undue reliance may be placed for any purposes whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation or on its completeness, accuracy or fairness. This document may contain forward-looking statements by using such words as "may", "will", "expect", "believe", "plan" and other similar terminology that reflect the Company management’s current views, expectations, assumptions and forecasts with respect to certain future events. As the actual performance of the companies may be affected by risks and uncertainties, all opinions, information and estimates contained in this document constitute the Company’s current judgment and are subject to change, update, amend, supplement or otherwise alter without notice. Although it is believed that the information and analysis are correct and expectations reflected in this document are reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially. The Company does not undertake any obligation, and disclaims any duty to update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events. Neither this document nor the information contained within can construe any investment advice, invitation or an offer to buy or sell the Company and/or Its group companies’ shares. The Company cannot guarantee that the securities described in this document constitute a suitable investment for all investors and nothing shall be taken as an inducement to any person to invest in or otherwise deal with any shares of the Company and its group companies. The information contained in this document is published for the assistance of recipients, but is not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by any recipient. You must not distribute the information in this document to, or cause it to be used by, any person or entity in a place where its distribution or use would be unlawful. Neither the Company, its board of directors, directors, managers, nor any of Its employees shall have any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer
2
Assembly numbers compared to same period 2016 are:
• EU & EFTA : + %4,3
• Brasil : + 25.4% despite political and economical
challenges
• US: - 1% due to rising inventory levels at dealers, not
expected to continue.
• China : + 2.7%
Global Automotive Market
Global LV Assembly – M Units / Year 2016-2021E CAGR: 3,4%
Global Tire Market
Global LV Tire Production– M Units / Year
60% 60% 61% 62% 64% 67% 70%
3
2016-2021E CAGR: 3,1%
Source: PWC Autofacts
Source: LMC Tyre Forecast
Market Dynamics
Tire Market is corralated to Automotive Market Growth. Production numbers compared to same period 2016 are: • Europe: + 2.7% • NA: + 1.4% • LATAM: + 4% • China: + 2,6%
2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021EAP exc. China China EMEA NA SA
1653 1699 1759 1813 1869 1926
Tire Reinforcement Market (PET HMLS)
Tire Reinforcement Market (NY6.6)
60% 60% 61% 62% 64% 67% 70%
2016-2021 CAGR: +3.5%
2016-2021 CAGR: +2.5%
Source: Company Estimates
Source: Company Estimates
PET HMLS
• Increasing rate of PET HMLS penetration to Agro tyres • Increased capacity utilisation drives investments
Nylon 6.6
• 2017: High capacity utilisation rates • Q1 2017 raw material price spike up to 100% in March • Cap ply demand grows with passenger & light vechicle tire
demand
Market Dynamics
4
-100
100
300
500
700
900
1100
2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
Supply Demand
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
Supply Demand
RM Price Drivers
Source: Company Estimates 5
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan
-14
Feb
-14
Mar
-14
Ap
r-1
4
May
-14
Jun
-14
Jul-
14
Au
g-1
4
Sep
-14
Oct
-14
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
Dec
-17
Raw Material Trend
BZ BD PP OIL
Forecast
RM Price Drivers
Source: Company Estimates
Source: Company Estimates
6
50
60
70
80
90
100
110Ja
n-1
4
Feb
-14
Mar
-14
Ap
r-1
4
May
-14
Jun
-14
Jul-
14
Au
g-1
4
Sep
-14
Oct
-14
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
Dec
-17
Polyester Raw Material Trend, PTA
PTA NEA CFR Contract $/ton PTA NEA C&R Spot $/ton PTA Deliv.WE Contract €/ton
, Forecast
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan
-14
Feb
-14
Mar
-14
Ap
r-1
4
May
-14
Jun
-14
Jul-
14
Au
g-1
4
Sep
-14
Oct
-14
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
Dec
-17
Polyester Raw Material Trend, MEG
MEG CFR AP Contract $/ton MEG CFR NEA Spot $/ton MEG Deliv.WE Contract €/ton
Forecast
Segmental Progress
7
50%
57% 60%
66% 67%
13% 12% 12% 11% 12%
6% 5% 6% 6% 6%
31%
26%
22%
17% 16%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 H1
Global Players Regional Players Emerging Players Others
Regional Revenue Split Progress
41,2%
24,5% 21,9%
12,5%
36,1%
28,0%
22,3%
13,7%
38,6%
29,5%
17,4% 14,5%
36,0%
30,6%
18,4%
15,0%
36,6%
31,7%
17,5% 14,2%
EMEA APAC NA SA
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 H1
8
2017 Revenue Split Progress by Products
9
74,6% 75,3%
21,1% 19,6%
4,4% 5,2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2016 H1 2017 H1
TCF NY Yarn Other
Strong Focus on R&D
28
41
52
42 45
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E
In MM$
Revenue From New Products (US$m)
• Incl. Replacement products and incremental new products • Once «new product life cycle» is completed in 7 years, it is transferred to «regular sales» portfolio
10
2017 - Key Financials
11
*EBITDA Calculation = Operating Profit - [Dep&Amort] - [A]* - [B]** [A]* : FX Gain/Loss on trade Rec. & Pay. [B]** Unearned finance inc/exp on credit sales
In MMTL 2016 H1 2017 H1 Change
Net Sales 960 1,239 29%
Gross Profit 200 242 21%
Gross Profit % 21% 20% -1 pts
Opex % 8% 8% 0 pts
Operating Profit 125 152 22%
Operating Profit % 13% 12% -1 pts
EBITDA 154 193 25%
EBITDA % 16% 16%
Net Income 101 112 11%
Effective Tax Rate 12% 16% 3 pts
EPS 4.50 4.53 0.7%
2017 – Key Balance Sheet Items
12
In MMTL Dec 31, 2016 Jun 30, 2017 Change
Cash and Cash Equivalents
39 49
(11)
Account Receivable
372 478
(106)
Other Current Assets
75 73
2
Inventories
537 589
(51)
PPE & Intangible & Investment Property
1,332 1,349
(17)
Accounts Payable
(284) (281)
(3)
Oth. Curr. Liabilities (Excl. Borrowings)
(71) (95)
24
Net Debt
496 625
(129)
Short Term
374 569
(195)
Long Term
161 105
56
WCAP Turnover
3.5 3.1 -
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.7 1.9
ROA 4.5% 4.3%
ROE 8.3% 7.7%
2017 - Free Cash Flow
In MMTL 2016 H1
2017 H1 Change
EBIT*(1-t) 105 133 27
Depreciation and Amortization 39 50 (11)
Change in Working Capital (15) (163) (149)
Cash Used in Investing Activities (72) (61) 11
Free Cash Flow* 58 (41) (99)
* FCF: EBIT(1-Tax Rate) + Depreciation & Amortization - Change in Net Working Capital - Capital Expenditure
13
2017 - Dividend Distribution*
* Kordsa distributes all the distributable income subject to Gen Assembly approval. Basis of distribution is the lower of the Turkish solo tax books or consolidated TFRS net income.
14
76
35
-
68
61 58
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
In MMTL
2017 - Operating Profit Bridge - MTL
15
Guidance
16
Mar'2017
Revenue Growth (TRL) %25 - %35
Ebitda Growth (TRL) %20-%30
Raw Material
NY -------> Highly correlated with Butadiene,
Benzene, Propylene
Pet -------> Highly correlated with PTA, MEG
Recurring Creep Capex 23 M$
*EBITDA Calculation = Operating Profit - [Dep&Amort] - [A]* - [B]** [A]* : FX Gain/Loss on trade Rec. & Pay. [B]** Unearned finance inc/exp on credit sales
APPENDIX
17
2013 – 2017H1 Trend
18
1.549 1.705 1.735
1.908
1.239
61
123
161
209
142 124
191
242
288
193
39
95 116
178
112
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017H1
REVENUE EBIT EBITDA NET INCOME