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Strictly confidential 2017 1H / Earnings Release Aug 01, 2017

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Page 1: 2017 1H / Earnings Release Aug 01, 2017 - KORDSA · Global Tire Market Global LV Tire Production– M Units / Year 60% 60% 61% 62% 64% 67% 70% 3 2016-2021E CAGR: 3,1% Source: PWC

Strictly confidential

2017 1H / Earnings Release

Aug 01, 2017

Keep

Page 2: 2017 1H / Earnings Release Aug 01, 2017 - KORDSA · Global Tire Market Global LV Tire Production– M Units / Year 60% 60% 61% 62% 64% 67% 70% 3 2016-2021E CAGR: 3,1% Source: PWC

The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled by KORDSA Teknik Tekstil Anonim şirketi (the “Company”) from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. No undue reliance may be placed for any purposes whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation or on its completeness, accuracy or fairness. This document may contain forward-looking statements by using such words as "may", "will", "expect", "believe", "plan" and other similar terminology that reflect the Company management’s current views, expectations, assumptions and forecasts with respect to certain future events. As the actual performance of the companies may be affected by risks and uncertainties, all opinions, information and estimates contained in this document constitute the Company’s current judgment and are subject to change, update, amend, supplement or otherwise alter without notice. Although it is believed that the information and analysis are correct and expectations reflected in this document are reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially. The Company does not undertake any obligation, and disclaims any duty to update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events. Neither this document nor the information contained within can construe any investment advice, invitation or an offer to buy or sell the Company and/or Its group companies’ shares. The Company cannot guarantee that the securities described in this document constitute a suitable investment for all investors and nothing shall be taken as an inducement to any person to invest in or otherwise deal with any shares of the Company and its group companies. The information contained in this document is published for the assistance of recipients, but is not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by any recipient. You must not distribute the information in this document to, or cause it to be used by, any person or entity in a place where its distribution or use would be unlawful. Neither the Company, its board of directors, directors, managers, nor any of Its employees shall have any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its contents.

Disclaimer

2

Page 3: 2017 1H / Earnings Release Aug 01, 2017 - KORDSA · Global Tire Market Global LV Tire Production– M Units / Year 60% 60% 61% 62% 64% 67% 70% 3 2016-2021E CAGR: 3,1% Source: PWC

Assembly numbers compared to same period 2016 are:

• EU & EFTA : + %4,3

• Brasil : + 25.4% despite political and economical

challenges

• US: - 1% due to rising inventory levels at dealers, not

expected to continue.

• China : + 2.7%

Global Automotive Market

Global LV Assembly – M Units / Year 2016-2021E CAGR: 3,4%

Global Tire Market

Global LV Tire Production– M Units / Year

60% 60% 61% 62% 64% 67% 70%

3

2016-2021E CAGR: 3,1%

Source: PWC Autofacts

Source: LMC Tyre Forecast

Market Dynamics

Tire Market is corralated to Automotive Market Growth. Production numbers compared to same period 2016 are: • Europe: + 2.7% • NA: + 1.4% • LATAM: + 4% • China: + 2,6%

2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021EAP exc. China China EMEA NA SA

1653 1699 1759 1813 1869 1926

Page 4: 2017 1H / Earnings Release Aug 01, 2017 - KORDSA · Global Tire Market Global LV Tire Production– M Units / Year 60% 60% 61% 62% 64% 67% 70% 3 2016-2021E CAGR: 3,1% Source: PWC

Tire Reinforcement Market (PET HMLS)

Tire Reinforcement Market (NY6.6)

60% 60% 61% 62% 64% 67% 70%

2016-2021 CAGR: +3.5%

2016-2021 CAGR: +2.5%

Source: Company Estimates

Source: Company Estimates

PET HMLS

• Increasing rate of PET HMLS penetration to Agro tyres • Increased capacity utilisation drives investments

Nylon 6.6

• 2017: High capacity utilisation rates • Q1 2017 raw material price spike up to 100% in March • Cap ply demand grows with passenger & light vechicle tire

demand

Market Dynamics

4

-100

100

300

500

700

900

1100

2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E

Supply Demand

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E

Supply Demand

Page 5: 2017 1H / Earnings Release Aug 01, 2017 - KORDSA · Global Tire Market Global LV Tire Production– M Units / Year 60% 60% 61% 62% 64% 67% 70% 3 2016-2021E CAGR: 3,1% Source: PWC

RM Price Drivers

Source: Company Estimates 5

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan

-14

Feb

-14

Mar

-14

Ap

r-1

4

May

-14

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-1

4

Dec

-14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-1

6

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec

-16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-1

7

May

-17

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Dec

-17

Raw Material Trend

BZ BD PP OIL

Forecast

Page 6: 2017 1H / Earnings Release Aug 01, 2017 - KORDSA · Global Tire Market Global LV Tire Production– M Units / Year 60% 60% 61% 62% 64% 67% 70% 3 2016-2021E CAGR: 3,1% Source: PWC

RM Price Drivers

Source: Company Estimates

Source: Company Estimates

6

50

60

70

80

90

100

110Ja

n-1

4

Feb

-14

Mar

-14

Ap

r-1

4

May

-14

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-1

4

Dec

-14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-1

6

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec

-16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-1

7

May

-17

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Dec

-17

Polyester Raw Material Trend, PTA

PTA NEA CFR Contract $/ton PTA NEA C&R Spot $/ton PTA Deliv.WE Contract €/ton

, Forecast

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan

-14

Feb

-14

Mar

-14

Ap

r-1

4

May

-14

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-1

4

Dec

-14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-1

6

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec

-16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-1

7

May

-17

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Dec

-17

Polyester Raw Material Trend, MEG

MEG CFR AP Contract $/ton MEG CFR NEA Spot $/ton MEG Deliv.WE Contract €/ton

Forecast

Page 7: 2017 1H / Earnings Release Aug 01, 2017 - KORDSA · Global Tire Market Global LV Tire Production– M Units / Year 60% 60% 61% 62% 64% 67% 70% 3 2016-2021E CAGR: 3,1% Source: PWC

Segmental Progress

7

50%

57% 60%

66% 67%

13% 12% 12% 11% 12%

6% 5% 6% 6% 6%

31%

26%

22%

17% 16%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 H1

Global Players Regional Players Emerging Players Others

Page 8: 2017 1H / Earnings Release Aug 01, 2017 - KORDSA · Global Tire Market Global LV Tire Production– M Units / Year 60% 60% 61% 62% 64% 67% 70% 3 2016-2021E CAGR: 3,1% Source: PWC

Regional Revenue Split Progress

41,2%

24,5% 21,9%

12,5%

36,1%

28,0%

22,3%

13,7%

38,6%

29,5%

17,4% 14,5%

36,0%

30,6%

18,4%

15,0%

36,6%

31,7%

17,5% 14,2%

EMEA APAC NA SA

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017 H1

8

Page 9: 2017 1H / Earnings Release Aug 01, 2017 - KORDSA · Global Tire Market Global LV Tire Production– M Units / Year 60% 60% 61% 62% 64% 67% 70% 3 2016-2021E CAGR: 3,1% Source: PWC

2017 Revenue Split Progress by Products

9

74,6% 75,3%

21,1% 19,6%

4,4% 5,2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016 H1 2017 H1

TCF NY Yarn Other

Page 10: 2017 1H / Earnings Release Aug 01, 2017 - KORDSA · Global Tire Market Global LV Tire Production– M Units / Year 60% 60% 61% 62% 64% 67% 70% 3 2016-2021E CAGR: 3,1% Source: PWC

Strong Focus on R&D

28

41

52

42 45

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E

In MM$

Revenue From New Products (US$m)

• Incl. Replacement products and incremental new products • Once «new product life cycle» is completed in 7 years, it is transferred to «regular sales» portfolio

10

Page 11: 2017 1H / Earnings Release Aug 01, 2017 - KORDSA · Global Tire Market Global LV Tire Production– M Units / Year 60% 60% 61% 62% 64% 67% 70% 3 2016-2021E CAGR: 3,1% Source: PWC

2017 - Key Financials

11

*EBITDA Calculation = Operating Profit - [Dep&Amort] - [A]* - [B]** [A]* : FX Gain/Loss on trade Rec. & Pay. [B]** Unearned finance inc/exp on credit sales

In MMTL 2016 H1 2017 H1 Change

Net Sales 960 1,239 29%

Gross Profit 200 242 21%

Gross Profit % 21% 20% -1 pts

Opex % 8% 8% 0 pts

Operating Profit 125 152 22%

Operating Profit % 13% 12% -1 pts

EBITDA 154 193 25%

EBITDA % 16% 16%

Net Income 101 112 11%

Effective Tax Rate 12% 16% 3 pts

EPS 4.50 4.53 0.7%

Page 12: 2017 1H / Earnings Release Aug 01, 2017 - KORDSA · Global Tire Market Global LV Tire Production– M Units / Year 60% 60% 61% 62% 64% 67% 70% 3 2016-2021E CAGR: 3,1% Source: PWC

2017 – Key Balance Sheet Items

12

In MMTL Dec 31, 2016 Jun 30, 2017 Change

Cash and Cash Equivalents

39 49

(11)

Account Receivable

372 478

(106)

Other Current Assets

75 73

2

Inventories

537 589

(51)

PPE & Intangible & Investment Property

1,332 1,349

(17)

Accounts Payable

(284) (281)

(3)

Oth. Curr. Liabilities (Excl. Borrowings)

(71) (95)

24

Net Debt

496 625

(129)

Short Term

374 569

(195)

Long Term

161 105

56

WCAP Turnover

3.5 3.1 -

Net Debt / EBITDA

1.7 1.9

ROA 4.5% 4.3%

ROE 8.3% 7.7%

Page 13: 2017 1H / Earnings Release Aug 01, 2017 - KORDSA · Global Tire Market Global LV Tire Production– M Units / Year 60% 60% 61% 62% 64% 67% 70% 3 2016-2021E CAGR: 3,1% Source: PWC

2017 - Free Cash Flow

In MMTL 2016 H1

2017 H1 Change

EBIT*(1-t) 105 133 27

Depreciation and Amortization 39 50 (11)

Change in Working Capital (15) (163) (149)

Cash Used in Investing Activities (72) (61) 11

Free Cash Flow* 58 (41) (99)

* FCF: EBIT(1-Tax Rate) + Depreciation & Amortization - Change in Net Working Capital - Capital Expenditure

13

Page 14: 2017 1H / Earnings Release Aug 01, 2017 - KORDSA · Global Tire Market Global LV Tire Production– M Units / Year 60% 60% 61% 62% 64% 67% 70% 3 2016-2021E CAGR: 3,1% Source: PWC

2017 - Dividend Distribution*

* Kordsa distributes all the distributable income subject to Gen Assembly approval. Basis of distribution is the lower of the Turkish solo tax books or consolidated TFRS net income.

14

76

35

-

68

61 58

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

In MMTL

Page 15: 2017 1H / Earnings Release Aug 01, 2017 - KORDSA · Global Tire Market Global LV Tire Production– M Units / Year 60% 60% 61% 62% 64% 67% 70% 3 2016-2021E CAGR: 3,1% Source: PWC

2017 - Operating Profit Bridge - MTL

15

Page 16: 2017 1H / Earnings Release Aug 01, 2017 - KORDSA · Global Tire Market Global LV Tire Production– M Units / Year 60% 60% 61% 62% 64% 67% 70% 3 2016-2021E CAGR: 3,1% Source: PWC

Guidance

16

Mar'2017

Revenue Growth (TRL) %25 - %35

Ebitda Growth (TRL) %20-%30

Raw Material

NY -------> Highly correlated with Butadiene,

Benzene, Propylene

Pet -------> Highly correlated with PTA, MEG

Recurring Creep Capex 23 M$

*EBITDA Calculation = Operating Profit - [Dep&Amort] - [A]* - [B]** [A]* : FX Gain/Loss on trade Rec. & Pay. [B]** Unearned finance inc/exp on credit sales

Page 17: 2017 1H / Earnings Release Aug 01, 2017 - KORDSA · Global Tire Market Global LV Tire Production– M Units / Year 60% 60% 61% 62% 64% 67% 70% 3 2016-2021E CAGR: 3,1% Source: PWC

APPENDIX

17

Page 18: 2017 1H / Earnings Release Aug 01, 2017 - KORDSA · Global Tire Market Global LV Tire Production– M Units / Year 60% 60% 61% 62% 64% 67% 70% 3 2016-2021E CAGR: 3,1% Source: PWC

2013 – 2017H1 Trend

18

1.549 1.705 1.735

1.908

1.239

61

123

161

209

142 124

191

242

288

193

39

95 116

178

112

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017H1

REVENUE EBIT EBITDA NET INCOME