2016 visitor use summary for fossil creek wild and...
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2016 Visitor Use Summary for Fossil Creek Wild and Scenic River
Becky Smith, USFS Forestry Technician (Recreation)
Red Rock Ranger District Coconino National Forest
November 28, 2016
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Key Findings and Observations 2016 Statistics
Total number of permits reserved: 17,962
Total number of cancellations: 606
Total number of no-shows: 4,937
Total number of people with permits that visited Fossil Creek/Fossil Springs: 47,927
Total number of vehicles let in to Fossil Creek/Fossil Springs: 11,681
Total number of unpermitted vehicles turned way: 3,872
Total number of people turned away: 13,238
Total pounds of trash collected: 4,463
Key Comparisons
The number of vehicles turned away decreased by approximately 65% between 2015 and 2016.
Estimated visitor demand, the total number of people turned away and let in to Fossil Creek, was 61,165 people in 2016 compared to 129,562 in 2015.
The amount trash collected decreased from 11,511 pounds in 2015 to 4,463 pounds in 2016.
The most common incident type in 2016 was occupancy (158), which includes parking violations, versus sanitation (138) and fire (129) in 2015.
Search and rescue calls were reduced by half in 2016. There were a total of 20 calls in 2015 and 9 in 2016.
Notable Observations
Vehicles were seldom waiting for the gates to open to access the Fossil Creek permit area. Permit holders knew they had a spot reserved and they did not have to get Fossil Creek early.
The majority of visitors were happy about the permit. For some it was their first time going to Fossil Creek because they were turned around in previous years. Others had been avoiding the area in recent years due to crowds and trash. Overall, Forest Service staff received positive feedback from the public.
Most of the reported Forest Service incidents were vehicles parking in the wrong parking lot.
The 708 road to Fossil Creek was closed three days in August and Fossil Springs was closed one day in August due to road conditions.
On Oct. 2, the first day a permit was not needed, there were 113 cars in the canyon. Most of the cars were parked between the Bridge and the Waterfall parking lots except a few that were parked in Sally May and Purple Mountain. The Waterfall Parking lot was full by 9:00 am and Irving was half full. The Fossil Springs trailhead parking lot had
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28 cars. Forestry technicians and Law Enforcement had to do parking control. These busy conditions persisted on weekends in October.
Overall Management Observations
Social media and print media articles contributed to the steady increase in visitor demand for Fossil Creek 2010-2015. The high demand led to the implementation of a permit reservation system between May 1 and October 1, 2016. The permit system allowed the public to reserve a parking spot in advance for a particular parking lot.
Forest Service personnel were stationed at the Fossil Springs Trailhead and the 708/502 junction every day to check permits. On the weekends and holidays there were individuals at the corrals or 260/708 junction to turn away unpermitted vehicles and to educate the public about the permit system.
Most individuals that had a Fossil Springs permit checked in by 10:00 to begin the hike. In the afternoon personnel were turning away unpermitted vehicles. At the 708/502 junction most visitors arrived between 9:00 am and 12:00 pm.
Forest Service personnel informed visitors about the swimming holes near their parking lot, but many people still chose to hike to the waterfall. We received many complaints that the Waterfall and Irving parking lots were half-empty. On weekends, two search and rescue personnel were stationed at the Fossil Springs Trailhead for a few hours in the morning to educate the public about the difficulty of the hike.
Many visitors to Fossil Creek went to the wrong entrance to gain access. Individuals would use the GPS on their smart phones that would direct them to Strawberry even though creek access via the 708 road was closed. Forest Service personnel redirected visitors to the correct gate. Some visitors that went to Strawberry elected to recreate somewhere else rather than driving to the other side.
The total amount of trash picked up decreased from 11,511 pounds in 2015 to 4,463 pounds in 2016. A Sierra Club group took one day to pick up trash throughout Fossil Creek. They picked up approximately 100 pounds of trash.
The Verde Watershed Ambassadors collected 2,025 pounds of trash along FR 708, FR 502, and at the parking lots. They took down rope swings at the various swimming holes and covered up graffiti. In addition, the Verde Watershed Ambassadors trimmed branches and removed brush along FR 708 and FR 502.
Methods
Data were collected by Forest Service personnel at three locations: Fossil Springs Trailhead, the 708/502 junction in Fossil Creek, and the 260/708 junction. Forest Service personnel filled out data sheets and turned them in at the office on a daily basis. Data at the 260/708 junction
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were collected on weekends and holidays. October 1 data were included in the totals for September.
Vehicles were counted at the gates when their permits were validated and let in to Fossil Creek, or if they were turned away. The number of people was calculated by adding up the group size from the Daily Arrival Report (DAR) of those permits used for the day. Some groups were larger or smaller than what was indicated on the DAR. The number of people turned away was calculated by counting the number of individuals in the vehicle. If the number of people turned away was not included on the data sheet, then a 3.89 person per car, established in previous years, was used to estimate the number of people turned away.
The average group sizes for vehicles turned away and let in were calculated by dividing the total number of people by the total number of vehicles. The average group size for permits sold, which includes no-shows, was created in a statistical report through www.recreation.gov.
No-shows were counted daily at the end of the day by Forest Service personnel by counting up the names that were not crossed off on the DAR. The statistics for the total number of permits sold and cancelled were generated using the website www.recreation.gov.
The no-show rate was calculated by dividing the total no shows by total number of permits sold. Data for incidents were gathered when personnel were on patrol and was recorded daily.
Results
Motor Vehicles
Figure 1. The total number of vehicles turned away each month at each location and the combined total of the two locations.
527488
596
300262
460
365 380
277217
987
853
976
577
479
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
May June July August September
Vehicles Turned Away by Month
Camp Verde
Strawberry
Totals
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May had the most total vehicles turned away. May was the first month of the permit the system. The number of vehicles turned away peaked again in July and then decreased in August and September (Figure 1). One reason for the disproportionately high numbers of vehicles turned away on the Strawberry side could be from the number of individuals that use GPS on their smart phones to get to Fossil Creek. Some phone maps show that FR 708 is still open even though it has been closed for the past five years.
Figure 2. The yearly combined total of vehicles turned away at Strawberry and Camp Verde. The number of vehicles turned away decreased by 65% between 2015 and 2016 due to the implementation of the permit reservation system (Figure 2).
3,128
5,7136,147
11,113
3,872
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Vehicles Turned Away by Year
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Visitor Use
Figure 3. The monthly total of permitted vehicles let in to Fossil Creek/Fossil Springs, number of people in permitted vehicles, and number of visitors contacted inside the permit area by Forest Service staff. Visitor use peaked in the month of July (Figure 3). The total number of contacts in 2016 was 2,547 which is down from 11,311 in 2015. This decrease was due in part to Forest Service staff having to be at the gates to validate permits every day instead of patrolling the roads and parking lots more often. The number of contacts does not include any made by the Verde Watershed Ambassadors.
Estimated Visitor Demand
Year Estimated Total People Let In Estimated Total
People Turned Away Total Estimated
Demand (People)
2012 90,396 10,407 100,803
2013 88,552 22,224 110,776
2014* 34,602 23,911 58,513
2015 86,333 43,229 129,562
2016 47,927 13,238 61,165
Table 1. A yearly comparison of visitor demand from 2012 to 2016. *There was a complete closure of the area because of a wildfire hazard for one month in 2014. The total number of people let in to the Fossil Creek area and people turned away decreased between 2015 and 2016 due to the permit system (Table 1). The average group size for vehicles turned away was 3.42 and the average group size for vehicles let in was 4.10. Total
2,0422,847 3,048
2,027 1,717
7,681
11,971
13,321
8,315
6,639
393833 472 574 275
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
May June July August September
Visitor Use Data
Vehicles
People
Contacts
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estimated visitor demand could be higher because we do not know how many individuals tried to get a permit, were unable to do so, and then chose to go somewhere else. A total of 400 people walked into the permit area. Fossil Springs Trailhead had 257 walk-ins and Fossil Creek had 143 walk-ins. Forest Service staff contacted a combined total of 107 groups camped legally at Stehr Lakebed and Childs. 493 vehicles said they were going to Childs and 492 vehicles said they were going to Deadman Mesa from Strawberry. Permits The total number of permits sold for the 2016 year was 17,962 and the total number of cancellations was 606. The net total of permits was 17,356. The average group size per permit was 4.16. The total number of permits bought over the phone was 612 and 17,350 permits were bought using the internet.
Figure 4. The total number of permits sold each month for all parking lots.
3,141
4,185
4,556
3,473
2,607
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
May June July August Sept.
Permits Sold Each Month
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Figure 5. The total number of permits sold each month for FR 708, FR 502, and Fossil Springs Trailhead. The amount permits sold increased from May until July and then decreased. The peak of permits sold was in July with a total of 4,556. Reservations decreased in the months of August and September (Figures 4 & 5). The decrease in permits sold was noticed about the time when school started. There was a decline of permits sold on weekdays in August and September. Every weekend continued to be sold out until the end of the permit system.
2,155
2,832
3,047
2,509
1,847
245441
560
297 226
741912 949
667534
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
May June July August September
Total Permits Sold Each Month by Location
FR 708
FR 502
Fossil Springs
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Figure 6. Total permits sold at each parking lot and the total number of permits available for each lot for the year. More permits were bought for Fossil Springs Trailhead than any other lot (Figure 6). This could be because it has the most parking spaces (30). Almost all of the permits for the Waterfall Trailhead parking lot were sold. The Waterfall Trailhead parking lot was in high demand because of its proximity to the Waterfall. The lots closest to the Waterfall (Irving and Tonto Bench) were also among the most popular.
2,533
1,240
2,4332,810
3,044
917
449 352
3,6313,850
1,540
3,080 3,080 3,080
1,540
924616
5,082
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Homstead Bridge Tonto Bench Irving Waterfall Sally May Purple Mt. Mazatzal FossilSprings
Total Number of Permits Sold by Lot Compared to Total Number of Permits Available
Permits sold Total Number of Permits
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Figure 7. The number of no shows by month at the 708/502 junction and Fossil Springs Trailhead.
Figure 8. A monthly comparison of total number of permits sold and total number of no-shows. No-shows are the individuals who bought a permit, did not come to Fossil Creek, and did not cancel. The month of July had the most no-shows (Figure 7). The combined total number of
708
863 887
726
627
179250
319
210168
887
11131206
936
795
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
May June July August September
Total Number of No-Shows
708/502
Fossil Springs
Totals
3141
4185
4556
3473
2607
8871113 1206
936795
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
May June July August Sept.
Monthly Comparison of Permits Sold and No-Shows
Permits Sold
No shows
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no-shows was 4,937 which is approximately a 28% no show rate for the year. The no-show rate by month ranged from 26% to 30%. July had the lowest no-show rate than any other month. The unexpectedly high and consistent no-show rate was likely due to people being able to reserve permits months in advance who then changed their plans. Additionally, reservations only cost $6.00 per vehicle creating little incentive for people to cancel in advance in order to get a refund.
Figure 9. The total number of cancellations each month for all parking lots.
Figure 10. The total number of cancellations for FR 708, FR 502, and Fossil Springs.
94
127
181
113
86
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
May June July August September
Total Cancellations Each Month
63
73
113
76
53
5
14 17
8 7
26
40
51
29 26
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
May June July August September
Cancellations by Location
FR 708
FR 502
Fossil Springs
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As with permits sold, the number of cancellations peaked in the month of July (Figure 9 & 10). Fossil Springs Trailhead had the greatest number of cancellations followed by the Waterfall Trailhead parking lot. Total cancellations accounted for only 3% of total permits.
Incidents
Figure 11. A yearly comparison total incidents from 2012-2016. Total Forest Service incidents decreased to the lowest number in five years. Personnel reported a total of 229 incidents in 2016 compared to 324 in the previous year, a 29% decline (Figure 11).
276249
311324
229
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Forest Service Incidents
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Figure 12. The percentage of violation types. This includes Fire (FIR), Government Property Damage (GP), Occupancy (OCU), Sanitation (SAN), and Fishing (FIS). The total number of incidents recorded showed a decrease from the previous years (Figure 11). Occupancy was the most reported incident type (Figure 12). Occupancy includes violations such as illegal camping, parking violations, removal of rope swings, and tire spikes being breeched. The majority of occupancy violations were vehicles parking in the wrong lot (71) or vehicles that did not have a permit displayed (37). There was a total of 11 illegal camps within the permit area. Sanitation and fire incidents were down from the previous year. There was one incident for fishing.
Incident Type 2015 2016
Sanitation 138 22
Fire 129 22
Occupancy 34 158
Gov. Property Damage 15 26
Timber 5 0
Wildlife Harassment 3 0
Fishing 0 1
Total 324 229
Table 2. Comparison of incident types between 2015 and 2016. Sanitation and fire incidents went down substantially in 2016 (84% and 83%, respectively) because there was no camping in the Fossil Creek permit area. Occupancy incidents increased
10%
11%
69%
10%
0%
Incidents by Violation Type
FIR (22)
GP (26)
OCU (158)
SAN (22)
FIS (1)
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in 2016 to 158 from 34 in 2015 (464%). The increase was due to the creation of designated parking spaces and the subsequent number of parking violations. Incidents of government property damage nearly doubled in 2016 likely due to the addition of gates, more regulatory signs, and some attempts to circumvent the road gates (Table 2). Forest Service Law Enforcement Officers wrote four tickets for marijuana possession, one traffic violation, ten for not having a permit or having the incorrect permit, three for parking issues, one for entering a closed area, one assault (arrest), and one for driving over the tire spikes and entering after 4:00 pm. Yavapai County Sheriff’s Deputies also assisted with weekend patrols. Other Incidents reported by Gila County
Gila County Reported Incidents
Type of Call 2015 2016
Search & Rescue 20 9
Medical 18 8
Welfare Check 0 1
Motor Assist 1 1
Agency Assist 0 1
Forest Service 0 1
Citizen Assist 2 0
Suspicious Act 2 0
Lockout 1 0
PI Incident (Car Accident) 1 0
Reckless Driving 2 0
USFS Unknown Violation 1 0
Extra Patrol Request 1 0
Total 49 21
Table 3. A comparison of total number of calls reported by Gila County by type in 2015 and 2016. The total number of Gila County incident calls for Fossil Creek decreased by 57% from 49 in 2015 to 21 in 2016 (Table 3). Search and rescue calls declined by 55% from 20 in 2015 to 9 in 2016. The decrease was likely due to the reduction in the number of people accessing the area during the reservation permit season and the continued preventative education efforts of search and rescue personnel.
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Type of Incident People Incidents
2015 2016 2015 2016
Dehydration/Unprepared 36 68 14 12
Lost or Missing 25 8 13 2
Major Accidents 8 2 9 1
Minor Injuries 9 1 9 1
Other 11 26 10 5
Total 89 104 55 21
Table 4. Types of incidents and number of visitors involved in 2015 and 2016. The total number of people is greater than the total number of incidents because multiple people were involved in some incidents (Table 4). In addition, one incident call to the Gila County Sheriff’s Office can result in more than one reported incident type and location. Thus, incident totals in Table 3 and Table 4 are different. Although the total number of incidents decreased, the total number of visitors involved in incidents was higher in 2016 than in 2015. Gila County search and rescue personnel reported providing water to 41 people while addressing other incidents on the Fossil Springs trail which accounts for the unexpected increase in the number of visitors involved in incidents in 2016.
Location of Incidents 2015 2016
Fossil Creek Rd. 11 0
Fossil Springs Trail 25 12
The Bowl 2 1
Waterfall 7 2
Tonto Bench 0 1
Fossil Creek Bridge 0 1
Mazatzal 0 1
Fossil Creek General Area 4 3
The Dam 1 0
Irving Lot 1 0
M3 TH 1 0
Sally Mae 1 0
Waterfall Trail 1 1
Flume Trail 1 0
Total 55 22
Table 5. Comparison of where incidents took place in 2015 and 2016. The one call at Mazatzal for a broken leg or ankle was handed over to the Yavapai County Sheriff’s Office. Most of the incidents in 2016 were on the Fossil Springs trail (Table 5).
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A helicopter was used one time to remove an individual with a broken leg on the Waterfall Trail. A deputy from Yavapai County Sheriff was on scene and called in the resources. There was one death due to drowning at the Waterfall during the permit season. After the permit season ended, two people drowned at the Waterfall and there was a homicide near Homestead.
Recommendations
One recommendation to help decrease the amount of no-shows is to change how far in advance one can secure a permit. For example, 80% of permits would be available to be purchased more than a month in advance and 20% of the permits would only be available one to two days in advance. There is a need to better distinguish between Middle Fossil and Fossil Springs. Many individuals get permits for Fossil Springs thinking it is near water and is a short hike to the Waterfall. Visitors will also just get a permit for whichever parking lot available while intending to walk to the Waterfall. Some visitors are not aware of the difficulty or length of the hike. One way to alleviate this problem is to create two reservation systems. One for Fossil Springs and one for Middle Fossil. More detailed information about the Fossil Springs hike can be put on the website. The separate reservation systems may help reduce the number visitors going to the wrong entrance to gain access to Fossil Creek. If a separate reservation system is implemented, then consider having the Tonto National Forest manage the Fossil Springs entrance. One suggestion to help save on vehicle repair costs in the long run is the use of UTVs. UTVs would be used to drive to the 708/502 junction and to patrol the parking lots. Trucks would still be needed to haul supplies for projects in Fossil Creek. Limitations to the use of UTVs include the initial expense of purchasing them and the crew would need additional training to use them. Safety may be a limitation because the crew may be inexperienced in using UTVs and rollovers are a possibility as well. Rollovers could happen because of human and/or manufacture error. UTVs could make personnel more accessible or approachable while out patrolling.
Summary Overall the implementation of a permit reservation system was a success in Fossil Creek in that it decreased the number of vehicles, people, incidents, search and rescue calls, and the amount of trash picked up from previous years. Many visitors said they were happy about the permit system. The visitors that came in the past stated they had a more enjoyable and uncrowded experience under the permit system.