2016 OLLI Class – Our Changing Climate 1:15‐2:45 on Wednesdays Lectures by NCSU Professors Sept. 14 ‐‐ Dr. Russell Philbrick, Global Scale of Climate Change – pp 11‐34 Sept. 21 ‐‐ Dr. Lonnie Liethhold, Historical Perspective of Climate Change –  

pp 34‐59 Sept. 28 ‐‐ Dr. Anantha Aiyyer, Impact of Climate Change on Significant Weather     Events Oct. 5 ‐‐ Dr. Dave DeMaster, Climate Change and High Latitudes – pp 60‐82 Oct. 12 ‐‐ Dr. William Kinsella, Climate Changes and the Future of Society –    pp 83‐96 Oct. 19 ‐‐ Dr. Philbrick and Others, Climate Change Action Path and Wrap‐up –    pp 97‐109  Attachments:

1. Handouts – pp1-10 2. Class Slides (2 per-page)

Handout at the 1st OLLI Class Supplemental Information for OLLI Class: Our Changing Climate Two attachments to this page provide useful detailed information to support and summarize our best current knowledge on the topic of climate change. Much of the general published information on the environment today is politicized in one-way or another, but these two short items provide factual statements that represent our current understanding of this subject. The attachments include: 1. A set of twelve summary statements that represent top level conclusions of the US National Climate Assessment Report published in 2014. These three pages summarize the conclusions of this study and the complete 814 page report (174 MB) is available on the web at: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/downloads or from libraries using the following citation: Melillo, Jerry M., Terese (T.C.) Richmond, and Gary W. Yohe, Eds., 2014: Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, 841 pp. doi:10.7930/J0Z31WJ2. 2. The Executive Summary of CONFRONTING CIMATE CHANGE: AVOIDING THE UNIMANAGEABE AND MANAGING THE UNAVOIDABLE, prepared by The Scientific Research Society, Sigma Xi, for the United Nations Foundation in 2007, available at www.conftontingclimatechance.org If you wish to explore further, the major Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Vol 1 2013 Report (1552 pg, 375 MB), IPCC with all of the technical details can be found at: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/ The follow up study and recommendations are available in the IPCC Vol 2 2014 Report at: http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/report/final-drafts/

1: OVERVIEW AND REPORT FINDINGS CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE UNITED STATES

Report Findings These findings distill important results that arise from this National Climate Assessment. They do not represent a full summary of all of the chapters’ findings, but rather a synthesis of particularly noteworthy conclusions. 1. Global climate is changing and this is apparent across the United States in a wide range of observations. The global warming of the past 50 years is primarily due to human activities, predominantly the burning of fossil fuels. Many independent lines of evidence confirm that human activities are affecting climate in unprecedented ways. U.S. average temperature has increased by 1.3°F to 1.9°F since record keeping began in 1895; most of this increase has occurred since about 1970. The most recent decade was the warmest on record. Because human‐induced warming is superimposed on a naturally varying climate, rising temperatures are not evenly distributed across the country or over time.21 See page 18.  

2. Some extreme weather and climate events have increased in recent decades, and new and stronger evidence confirms that some of these increases are related to human activities. Changes in extreme weather events are the primary way that most people experience climate change. Human‐induced climate change has already increased the number and strength of some of these extreme events. Over the last 50 years, much of the United States has seen an increase in prolonged periods of excessively high temperatures, more heavy downpours, and in some regions, more severe droughts.22 See page 24.  

3. Human-induced climate change is projected to continue, and it will accelerate significantly if global emissions of heat-trapping gases continue to increase. Heat‐trapping gases already in the atmosphere have committed us to a hotter future with more climate‐related impacts over the next few decades. The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades depends primarily on the amount of heat‐trapping gases that human activities emit globally, now and in the future.23 See page 28.  

4. Impacts related to climate change are already evident in many sectors and are expected to become increasingly disruptive across the nation throughout this century and beyond. Climate change is already affecting societies and the natural world. Climate change interacts with other environmental and societal factors in ways that can either moderate or intensify these impacts. The types and magnitudes of impacts vary across the nation and through time. Children, the elderly, the sick, and the poor are especially vulnerable. There is mounting evidence that harm to the nation will increase substantially in the future unless global emissions of heat‐trapping gases are greatly reduced.24 See page 32. 

1: OVERVIEW AND REPORT FINDINGS CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE UNITED STATES

5. Climate change threatens human health and well-being in many ways, including through more extreme weather events and wildfire, decreased air quality, and diseases transmitted by insects, food, and water. Climate change is increasing the risks of heat stress, respiratory stress from poor air quality, and the spread of waterborne diseases. Extreme weather events often lead to fatalities and a variety of health impacts on vulnerable populations, including impacts on mental health, such as anxiety and post‐traumatic stress disorder. Large‐scale changes in the environment due to climate change and extreme weather events are increasing the risk of the emergence or reemergence of health threats that are currently uncommon in the United States, such as dengue fever.25 See page 34.  

6. Infrastructure is being damaged by sea level rise, heavy downpours, and extreme heat; damages are projected to increase with continued climate change. Sea level rise, storm surge, and heavy downpours, in combination with the pattern of continued development in coastal areas, are increasing damage to U.S. infrastructure including roads, buildings, and industrial facilities, and are also increasing risks to ports and coastal military installations. Flooding along rivers, lakes, and in cities following heavy downpours, prolonged rains, and rapid melting of snowpack is exceeding the limits of flood protection infrastructure designed for historical conditions. Extreme heat is damaging transportation infrastructure such as roads, rail lines, and airport runways.26 See page 38. 

7. Water quality and water supply reliability are jeopardized by climate change in a variety of ways that affect ecosystems and livelihoods. Surface and groundwater supplies in some regions are already stressed by increasing demand for water as well as declining runoff and groundwater recharge. In some regions, particularly the southern part of the country and the Caribbean and Pacific Islands, climate change is increasing the likelihood of water shortages and competition for water among its many uses. Water quality is diminishing in many areas, particularly due to increasing sediment and contaminant concentrations after heavy downpours.27 See page 42.  

8. Climate disruptions to agriculture have been increasing and are projected to become more severe over this century. Some areas are already experiencing climate‐related disruptions, particularly due to extreme weather events. While some U.S. regions and some types of agricultural production will be relatively resilient to climate change over the next 25 years or so, others will increasingly suffer from stresses due to extreme heat, drought, disease, and heavy downpours. From mid‐century on, climate change is projected to have more negative impacts on crops and livestock across the country – a trend that could diminish the security of our food supply.28 See page 46. 

1: OVERVIEW AND REPORT FINDINGS CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE UNITED STATES

9. Climate change poses particular threats to Indigenous Peoples’ health, well-being, and ways of life. Chronic stresses such as extreme poverty are being exacerbated by climate change impacts such as reduced access to traditional foods, decreased water quality, and increasing exposure to health and safety hazards. In parts of Alaska, Louisiana, the Pacific Islands, and other coastal locations, climate change impacts (through erosion and inundation) are so severe that some communities are already relocating from historical homelands to which their traditions and cultural identities are tied. Particularly in Alaska, the rapid pace of temperature rise, ice and snow melt, and permafrost thaw are significantly affecting critical infrastructure and traditional livelihoods.29 See page 48.  

10. Ecosystems and the benefits they provide to society are being affected by climate change. The capacity of ecosystems to buffer the impacts of extreme events like fires, floods, and severe storms is being overwhelmed. Climate change impacts on biodiversity are already being observed in alteration of the timing of critical biological events such as spring bud burst and substantial range shifts of many species. In the longer term, there is an increased risk of species extinction. These changes have social, cultural, and economic effects. Events such as droughts, floods, wildfires, and pest outbreaks associated with climate change (for example, bark beetles in the West) are already disrupting ecosystems. These changes limit the capacity of ecosystems, such as forests, barrier beaches, and wetlands, to continue to play important roles in reducing the impacts of these extreme events on infrastructure, human communities, and other valued resources.30 See page 50. 

11. Ocean waters are becoming warmer and more acidic, broadly affecting ocean circulation, chemistry, ecosystems, and marine life. More acidic waters inhibit the formation of shells, skeletons, and coral reefs. Warmer waters harm coral reefs and alter the distribution, abundance, and productivity of many marine species. The rising temperature and changing chemistry of ocean water combine with other stresses, such as overfishing and coastal and marine pollution, to alter marine‐based food production and harm fishing communities.31 See page 58.  

12. Planning for adaptation (to address and prepare for impacts) and mitigation (to reduce future climate change, for example by cutting emissions) is becoming more widespread, but current implementation efforts are insufficient to avoid increasingly negative social, environmental, and economic consequences. Actions to reduce emissions, increase carbon uptake, adapt to a changing climate, and increase resilience to impacts that are unavoidable can improve public health, economic development, ecosystem protection, and quality of life.32 See page 62. 

CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE:AVOIDING THE UNMANAGEABLE AND MANAGING THE UNAVOIDABLE

Avoiding the UnmanageableHuman activities have changed the cli-mate of the Earth, with significant im-pacts on ecosystems and human society, and the pace of change is increasing. The global-average surface temperature is now about 0.8°C1 above its level in 1750, with most of the increase having occurred in the 20th century and the most rapid rise occurring since 1970. Temperature changes over the continents have been greater than the global average and the changes over the continents at high lati-tudes have been greater still.

The pattern of the observed changes matches closely what climate science pre-dicts from the buildup in the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and other greenhouse gases (GHGs), taking into account other known influences on the temperature.

The largest of all of the human and natu-ral influences on climate over the past 250 years has been the increase in the atmo-spheric CO2 concentration resulting from deforestation and fossil-fuel burning. The CO2 emissions in recent decades (Figure ES.1), which have been responsible for the largest part of this buildup, have come 75% to 85% from fossil fuels (largely in the industrialized countries) and 15% to 25% from deforestation and other land-cover change (largely from developing countries in the tropics).

The seemingly modest changes in aver-age temperature experienced over the 20th century have been accompanied by signifi-cant increases in the incidence of floods, droughts, heat waves, and wildfires, par-ticularly since 1970. It now appears that the intensity of tropical storms has been increasing as well. There have also been

large reductions in the extent of summer sea ice in the Arctic, large increases in sum-mer melting on the Greenland Ice Sheet, signs of instability in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and movement in the geographic and altitudinal ranges of large numbers of plant and animal species.

Even if human emissions could be in-stantaneously stopped, the world would not escape further climatic change. The slow equilibration of the oceans with changes in atmospheric composition means that a further 0.4°C to 0.5°C rise in global-aver-age surface temperature will take place as a result of the current atmospheric concentra-tions of greenhouse gases and particles.

If CO2 emissions and concentrations grow according to mid-range projec-tions, moreover, the global average sur-face temperature is expected to rise by 0.2°C to 0.4°C per decade throughout

CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE:AVOIDING THE UNMANAGEABLE AND MANAGING THE UNAVOIDABLE

Executive Summary. Scientific Expert Group Report on Climate Change and Sustainable Development.Prepared for the 15th Session of the Commission on Sustainable Development.

Global climate change, driven largely by the combustion of fossil fuels and by deforestation, is a growing threat to human well-be-ing in developing and industrialized nations alike. Significant harm from climate change is already occurring, and further damages are a certainty. The challenge now is to keep climate change from becoming a catastrophe. There is still a good chance of succeeding in this, and of doing so by means that create economic opportunities that are greater than the costs and that advance rather than impede other societal goals. But seizing this chance requires an immediate and major acceleration of efforts on two fronts: mitigation measures (such as reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases and black soot) to prevent the degree of climate change from becom-ing unmanageable; and adaptation measures (such as building dikes and adjusting agricultural practices) to reduce the harm from climate change that proves unavoidable.

1 A given temperature change in degrees Celsius (°C) can be converted into a change in degrees Fahrenheit (°F) by multiplying by 1.8. Thus, a change of 0.8°C cor-responds to a change of 0.8 x 1.8 = 1.44°F.

February 2007

Executive Summary

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Introduction toConfronting Climate Change

Three years ago, Sigma Xi was invited by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs to convene an international panel of scien-tists to prepare a report outlining the best measures for mitigating and adapting to global climate change. Chaired by Sigma Xi Past-President Peter H. Raven, director of the Missouri Botanical Garden, the 18-member Scientific Expert Group on Climate Change and Sustainable Development held its first meeting at the Sigma Xi Center in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, in December of 2004 and presented its final report in New York on February 27, 2007. The non-profit United Nations Foundation co-sponsored the study. “This report gives very clear recommendations,” Raven said, “for what the international community and nations themselves must do to mitigate and adapt to climate change.” The following is an executive summary, and the full report can be found at www.sigmaxi.org.

CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE:AVOIDING THE UNMANAGEABLE AND MANAGING THE UNAVOIDABLE

the 21st century and would continue to rise thereafter. The cumulative warming by 2100 would be approximately 3°C to 5°C over preindustrial conditions. Accu-mulating scientific evidence suggests that changes in the average temperature of this magnitude are likely to be associated with large and perhaps abrupt changes in climatic patterns that, far more than average temperature alone, will adversely impact agriculture, forestry, fisheries, the availability of fresh water, the geography of disease, the livability of human settle-ments, and more (see Figure ES.2). Even over the next decade, the growing impacts of climate change will make it difficult to meet the UN’s Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

No one can yet say for certain what in-crease in global-average surface temperature above the 1750 value is “too much,” in the sense that the consequences become truly unmanageable. In our judgment and that of a growing number of other analysts and groups, however, increases beyond 2°C to 2.5°C above the 1750 level will entail sharply rising risks of crossing a climate “tipping point” that could lead to intoler-able impacts on human well-being, in spite of all feasible attempts at adaptation.

Ramping up mitigation efforts quick-ly enough to avoid an increase of 2°C to 2.5°C would not be easy. Doing so would require very rapid success in reducing emis-sions of CH4 and black soot worldwide, and it would require that global CO2 emis-sions level off by 2015 or 2020 at not much above their current amount, before begin-ning a decline to no more than a third of that level by 2100. (The stringency of this trajectory and the difficulty of getting onto it are consequences, above all, of the emis-sion levels already attained, the long time scale for removal of CO2 from the atmo-sphere by natural processes, and the long operating lifetimes of CO2-emitting energy technologies that today are being deployed around the world at an increasing pace.)

But the challenge of halting climate change is one to which civilization must rise. Given what is currently known and suspect-ed about how the impacts of climate change are likely to grow as the global-average sur-face temperature increases, we conclude that the goal of society’s mitigation efforts should

be to hold the increase to 2°C if possible and in no event more than 2.5°C.

Managing the UnavoidableEven with greatly increased efforts to miti-gate future changes in climate, the magni-tude of local, regional, and global changes in climatic patterns experienced in the 21st century will be substantial.

A 2°C increase in the global-average sur-face temperature above its 1750 value is likely, for example, to result in up to a 4°C warming in the middle of large continents and even larger increases in the polar regions. Regional changes will be even more extreme if global average temperatures rise by 3°C or higher.

Climate change during the 21st century is likely to entail increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather, increases in sea level and the acidity of the oceans that will not be reversible for centuries to millennia, large-scale shifts in vegetation that cause major losses of sensitive plant and animal species, and significant shifts in the geographic ranges of disease vec-tors and pathogens.

These changes have the potential to lead to large local-to-regional disruptions in ecosystems and to adverse impacts on food security, fresh water resources, hu-

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man health, and settlements, resulting in increased loss of life and property.

Some sectors in some locations may ben-efit from the initial changes in climate. Most impacts are expected to be negative, however, with the social and economic consequences disproportionately affecting the poorest nations, those in water-scarce regions, and vulnerable coastal commu-nities in affluent countries.

Managing the unavoidable changes in cli-mate, both by promoting adaptation and by building capacity for recovery from extreme events, will be a challenge. International, na-tional, and regional institutions are, in many senses, ill prepared to cope with current weather-related disasters, let alone poten-tial problems such as an increasing number of refugees fleeing environmental damages spawned by climate change. Society will need to improve management of natural re-sources and preparedness/response strategies to cope with future climatic conditions that will be fundamentally different from those experienced for the last 100 years.

Integrating Adaptation and Mitigation to Achieve Multiple BenefitsThe simultaneous tasks of starting to drasti-cally reduce GHG emissions, continuing to adapt to intensifying climate change, and

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CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production,including land use change (Mt C per year from 1950 - 2003)

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10 - 50 100 - 1000

50 - 100

1000 - 1500

Figure ES.1. The annual emissions of CO2 by country, averaged over the period 1950 to 2003, in millions of tonnes of carbon per year (MtC/year).

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CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE:AVOIDING THE UNMANAGEABLE AND MANAGING THE UNAVOIDABLE

achieving the MDGs will require skillful planning and implementation, all the more so because of the interaction of these aims.

For example, clean and affordable en-ergy supplies are essential for achieving the MDGs in the developing countries and for expanding and sustaining well-being in the developed ones. Energy’s multiple roles in these issues provide “win-win” opportuni-ties as well as challenges, including:

Utilizing the most advanced building de-signs, which can provide emissions-free space conditioning (cooling and heating) in ways that greatly reduce energy and water demands and that promote im-proved health and worker performance.

Implementing carbon capture and storage from fossil-fueled power plants, which reduce impacts on climate while making available concentrated CO2 that can be used in enhanced natural gas and oil re-covery and in agricultural applications.

Replacing traditional uses of biomass fuels for cooking and heating (including agri-cultural residues and animal dung burned in inefficient cookstoves) with modern en-ergy supplies that can reduce production of black soot and other aerosols, improve the health of women and children other-wise exposed to high indoor air pollution

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from traditional uses of biomass, and re-duce deforestation and land degradation.

Combining the sustainable use of bio-mass for energy (renewable sources of biomass to produce electricity, liquid fuels, and gaseous fuels) with carbon capture and sequestration, which can power development and remove CO2 already emitted to the atmosphere.

In addition, reversing the unsustainable land-use practices that lead to defores-tation and degradation of soil fertility will help limit the release of CO2 and CH4 into the atmosphere from the soil. Improving sanitation in rural areas can reduce emissions of CH4 and provide a renewable fuel to help reduce dependence on coal, petroleum, and natural gas.

Projects and programs from around the world have demonstrated that much prog-ress can be made on climate-change miti-gation and adaptation in ways that save money rather than add to costs. Some of the measures that will ultimately be required are likely to have significant net costs—al-beit much less, in all likelihood, than the climate-change damages averted—but a clear way forward for immediate application is to promote much wider adoption of “win-win” approaches, such as those described above, that reduce climate-change risks while saving

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money, or that produce immediate co-ben-efits outweighing the costs of the measures.

To move further, government leadership is required to establish policy frameworks that create incentives for energy-system change and establish public-private partnerships for energy-technology development, deployment, and diffusion. Leaders in the private sector also need to seize opportunities to develop, commercialize, and deploy low-emitting en-ergy technologies that will also create jobs and enable economic development. Individ-uals, especially in affluent societies, must also show leadership by consuming responsibly. The Elements of a RoadmapAvoiding the unmanageable and managing the unavoidable will require an immediate and major acceleration of efforts to both mitigate and adapt to climate change. The following are our recommendations for im-mediate attention by the United Nations (UN) system and governments worldwide.

1. Accelerate implementation of win-win solutions that can moderate climate change while also moving the world toward a more sustainable future energy path and making progress on attaining the MDGs. Key steps must include measures to:

Improve efficiency in the transporta-tion sector through measures such as

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North America: Reduced springtime snow-pack; changing river flows; shifting eco-systems, with loss of niche environments; rising sea level and increased intensity and energy of Atlantic hurricanes increase coastal flooding and storm damage; more frequent and intense heat waves and wildfires; improved agriculture and forest productivity for a few decades

Pacific and Small Islands: Inundation of low-lying coral islands as sea level rises; salinization of aquifers; widespread coral bleaching; more powerful typhoons and possible intensification of ENSC extremes

Central America and West Indies:Greater likelihood of intense rainfall and more powerful hurricanes; increased coral bleaching; some inundation from sea level rise; biodiversity loss

South America: Disruption of tropical forests and significant loss of biodiversity; melting glaciers reduce water supplies; increased moisture stress in agricultural regions; more frequent occurrence of intense periods of rain, leading to more flash floods

Global Oceans: Made more acidic by increasing CO2concentration, deep overturning circulation possiblyreduced by warming and freshening in North Atlantic

Arctic: Significant retreat of ice; disrupted habitats of polar megafauna; accelerated loss of ice from Greenland Ice Sheet and mountain glaciers; shifting of fisheries; replacement of most tundra by boreal forest; greater exposure to UV-radiation

Africa: Declining agricultural yields and diminished food security; increased occurrence of drought and stresses on water supplies; disruption of ecosystems and loss of biodiversity, including some major species; some coastal inundation

Europe: More intense winter precipitation, river flooding, and other hazards; increased summer heat waves and melting of mountain glaciers; greater water stress in southern regions; intensifying regional climatic differences; greater biotic stress, causing shifts in flora; tourism shift from Mediterranean region

Central and Northern Asia: Widespread melting of permafrost, disrupting transportation and buildings; greater swampiness and ecosystem stress from warming; increased release of methane; coastal erosion due to sea ice retreat

Southern Asia: Sea level rise and more intense cyclones increase flooding of deltas and coastal plains; major loss of mangroves and coral reefs; melting of mountain glaciers reduces vital river flows; increased pressure on water resources with rising population and need for irrigation; possible monsoon perturbation

Australia and New Zealand: Substantial loss of coral along Great Barrier Reef; significant diminishment of waterresources; coastal inundation of some settled areas; increased fire risk; some early benefits to agriculture

Antarctica and Southern Ocean:Increasing risk of significant ice lossfrom West Antarctic Ice Sheet, risking much higher sea level in centuriesahead; accelerating loss of sea ice, disrupting marine life and penguins

Figure ES.2. Significant impacts of climate change that will likely occur across the globe in the 21st century.

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CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE:AVOIDING THE UNMANAGEABLE AND MANAGING THE UNAVOIDABLE

vehicle efficiency standards, fuel taxes, and registration fees/rebates that favor purchase of efficient and alternative fuel vehicles, government procurement standards, and expansion and strength-ening of public transportation and re-gional planning.

Improve the design and efficiency of commercial and residential buildings through building codes, standards for equipment and appliances, incentives for property developers and landlords to build and manage properties effi-ciently, and financing for energy-ef-ficiency investments.

Expand the use of biofuels, especially in the transportation sector, through energy portfolio standards and incen-tives to growers and consumers, with careful attention to environmental im-pacts, biodiversity concerns, and energy and water inputs.

Promote reforestation, afforestation, and improved land-use practices in ways that enhance overall productivity and delivery of ecological services while simultane-ously storing more carbon and reducing emissions of smoke and soot.

Beginning immediately, design and de-ploy only coal-fired power plants that will be capable of cost-effective and en-vironmentally sound retrofits for cap-ture and sequestration of their carbon emissions.

2. Implement a new global policy frame-work for mitigation that results in sig-nificant emissions reductions, spurs devel-opment and deployment of clean energy technologies, and allocates burdens and ben-efits fairly. Such a framework needs to be in place before the end of the Kyoto Protocol’s first commitment period in 2012. Elements of the framework should include:

An agreed goal of preventing a global-average temperature increase of more than 2°C to 2.5°C above the 1750 value-accompanied by multi-decade emission-reduction targets compatible with this aim.

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Metrics of performance that enable monitoring of progress towards reduc-tions in energy and emissions intensity at a national level.

Flexibility in the types of policies, mea-sures, and approaches adopted that re-flect different national levels of develop-ment, needs, and capabilities.

Mechanisms that establish a price for carbon, such as taxes or “cap and trade” systems. A carbon price will help provide incentives to increase energy efficiency, encourage use of low-carbon energy-supply options, and stimulate research into alternative technologies. Markets for trading emission allocations will increase economic efficiency.

A mechanism to finance incremental costs of more efficient and lower-emitting ener-gy technologies in low-income countries.

3. Develop strategies to adapt to ongoing and future changes in climate by integrat-ing the implications of climate change into resource management and infrastruc-ture development, and by committing to help the poorest nations and most vulner-able communities cope with increasing climate-change damages. Taking serious action to protect people, communities, and essential natural systems will involve commitments to:

Undertake detailed regional assessments to identify important vulnerabilities and establish priorities for increasing the adaptive capacity of communities, infrastructure, and economic activities. For example, governments should com-mit to incorporate adaptation into local Agenda 21 action plans and national sustainable-development strategies.

Develop technologies and adaptive-management and disaster-mitigation strategies for water resources, coastal infrastructure, human health, agri-culture, and ecosystems/biodiversity, which are expected to be challenged in virtually every region of the globe, and define a new category of “environmen-tal refugee” to better anticipate support

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requirements for those fleeing environ-mental disasters.

Avoid new development on coastal land that is less than one meter above present high tide, as well as within high-risk areas such as floodplains.

Ensure that the effects of climate change are considered in the design of protected areas and efforts to maintain biodiversity.

Enhance early-warning systems to pro-vide improved prediction of weather extremes, especially to the most vulner-able countries and regions.

Bolster existing financial mechanisms (such as the Global Environment Facil-ity)- and create additional ones-for helping the most vulnerable countries cope with unavoidable impacts, pos-sibly using revenues generated from carbon pricing, as planned in the Ad-aptation Fund of the Clean Develop-ment Mechanism.

Strengthen adaptation-relevant institu-tions and build capacity to respond to climate change at both national and in-ternational levels. The UN Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD) should request that the UN system evaluate the adequacy of, and improve coordination among, existing organi-zations such as the CSD, the Frame-work Convention on Climate Change, the World Health Organization, the Food and Agriculture Organization, the UN Refugee Agency, the World Bank, and others to more effectively support achievement of the MDGs and adapta-tion to climate change.

4. Create and rebuild cities to be cli-mate resilient and GHG-friendly, taking advantage of the most advanced technolo-gies and approaches for using land, fresh water, and marine, terrestrial, and energy resources. Crucial action items include the following elements:

Modernize cities and plan land-use and transportation systems, including

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CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE:AVOIDING THE UNMANAGEABLE AND MANAGING THE UNAVOIDABLE

greater use of public transit, to reduce energy use and GHG intensity and in-crease the quality of life and economic success of a region’s inhabitants.

Construct all new buildings using de-signs appropriate to local climate.

Upgrade existing buildings to reduce energy demand and slow the need for additional power generation.

Promote lifestyles, adaptations, and choices that require less energy and de-mand for non-renewable resources.

5. Increase investments and cooperation in energy-technology innovation to de-velop the new systems and practices that are needed to avoid the most damaging consequences of climate change. Current levels of public and private investment in energy-technology research, development, demonstration, and pre-commercial de-ployment are not even close to commen-surate with the size of the challenge and the extent of the opportunities. We rec-ommend that national governments and the UN system:

Advocate and achieve a tripling to qua-drupling of global public and private investments in energy-technology re-search, emphasizing energy efficiency in transportation, buildings, and the industrial sector; biofuels, solar, wind, and other renewable technologies; and

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advanced technologies for carbon cap-ture and sequestration.

Promote a comparable increase in public and private investments-with particular emphasis on public-private partnerships-focused on demonstra-tion and accelerated commercial de-ployment of energy technologies with large mitigation benefits.

Use UN institutions and other spe-cialized organizations to promote pub-lic-private partnerships that increase private-sector financing for energy-ef-ficiency and renewable-energy invest-ments, drawing upon limited public resources to provide loan guarantees and interest rate buy-downs.

Increase energy-technology research, de-velopment, and demonstration across the developing regions of the world. Po-tential options for achieving this goal include twinning arrangements between developed and developing countries and strengthening the network of regional centers for energy-technology research.

Over the next two years, complete a study on how to better plan, finance, and deploy climate-friendly energy technologies using the resources of UN and other international agencies such as the UN Development Programme, the World Bank, and the Global Envi-ronment Facility.

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6. Improve communication to accelerate adaptation and mitigation by increasing education efforts and creating forums for dialogue, technology assessment, and plan-ning. The full range of public- and private-sector participants should be engaged to en-courage partnerships across industrial and academic experts, the financial community, and public and private organizations. Na-tional governments and the UN system should take the following steps:

Develop an international process to as-sess technologies and refine sectoral targets for mitigation that brings together experts from industry, nongovernmental organiza-tions, the financial community, and gov-ernment. The Technology and Economic Assessment Panel of the Montreal Proto-col provides an effective model for assess-ing technological potential and effective, realistic sectoral mitigation targets.

Enhance national programs for public and corporate education on the needs, paths, opportunities, and benefits of a transition to a low-emission energy future.

Enlist the educational and capacity-building capabilities of UN institutions to provide information about climate change and the opportunities for adapta-tion and mitigation. Under the leader-ship of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the UN should com-plete an internal study to more effectively engage relevant UN agencies.

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The Time for Collective Action is Now

Governments, corporations, and individuals must act now to forge a new path to a sustainable future with a stable climate and a robust environment. There are many opportunities for taking effective early action at little or no cost. Many of these opportunities also have other environmental or societal benefits. Even if some of the subsequent steps required are more difficult and expensive, their costs are virtually certain to be smaller than the costs of the climate-change damages these measures would avert.

Two starkly different futures diverge from this time forward. Society’s current path leads to increasingly serious climate-change im-pacts, including potentially catastrophic changes in climate that will compromise efforts to achieve development objectives where there is poverty and will threaten standards of living where there is affluence. The other path leads to a transformation in the way society generates and uses energy as well as to improvements in management of the world’s soils and forests. This path will reduce dangerous emissions, create economic opportunity, help to reduce global poverty, reduce degradation of and carbon emissions from ecosystems, and contribute to the sustainability of productive economies capable of meeting the needs of the world’s growing population.

Humanity must act collectively and urgently to change course throughleadership at all levels of society. There is no more time for delay.

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Lead AuthorsUlisses Confalonieri, Professor, National School of Public Health and Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Jacques “Jack” Dubois, Member of the Executive Board, Swiss Re, United States

Alexander Ginzburg, Deputy Director, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russian Federation

Peter H. Gleick, President, Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security, United States

Zara Khatib, Technology Marketing Manager, Shell International, United Arab Emirates

Janice Lough, Principal Research Scientist, Australian Institute of Marine Science, Australia

Ajay Mathur, President, Senergy Global Private Limited, India

Mario Molina, Professor, University of California, San Diego, United States, and President, Mario Molina Center, Mexico

Keto Mshigeni, Vice Chancellor, The Hubert Kairuki Memorial University, Tanzania

Nebojsa “Naki” Nakicenovic, Professor, Vienna University of Technology, and Program Leader, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria

Taikan Oki, Professor, Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Japan

Hans Joachim “John” Schellnhuber, Professor and Director, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany

Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, Professor, Central European University, Hungary

Special Technical AdvisorJames Edmonds, Senior Staff Scientist, Joint Global Change Research Institute at University of Maryland College Park, United States

Research AssistantNathan L. Engle, School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, United States

Reviewers at the AAAS Annual Meeting, 2006Anthony Arguez, NOAA National Climatic Data Center, United States

Ann Bartuska, USDA Forest Service, United States

Sally Benson, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, United States

Norm Christensen, Duke University, United States

William Clark, Harvard University, United States

Robert Corell, The Heinz Center, United States

Gladys Cotter, US Geological Survey, United States

Partha Dasgupta, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom

Geoff Hawtin, Global Crop Diversity Trust, United Kingdom

Daniel Kammen, University of California, Berkeley, United States

Edward Miles, University of Washington, United States

Per Pinstrup-Andersen, Cornell University, United States

Richard Thomas, International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas, Syrian Arab Republic

Thomas Wilbanks, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, United States

Sigma Xi SponsorsJames F. Baur

Philip B. Carter (since September 2006)Patrick D. Sculley (until September 2006)

UN LiaisonsJoAnne DiSano, Peter Mak, Walter Shearer,

Division for Sustainable Development, Department ofEconomic & Social Affairs, United Nations

Special thanks to:Jeff Bielicki and Dave Thompson, Harvard University

Ko Barrett, NOAAJohn Rintoul, Sigma XiCosy Simon, Swiss Re

Naja Davis, David Harwood, Ryan Hobert,Katherine Miller, and Tripta Singh,

UN FoundationLelani Arris, Copy Editor

Coordinating Lead AuthorsRosina Bierbaum, Professor and Dean, School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, United States

John P. Holdren, Director, The Woods Hole Research Center, and Teresa and John Heinz Professor of Environmental Policy, Harvard University, United States

Michael MacCracken, Chief Scientist for Climate Change Programs, Climate Institute, United StatesRichard H. Moss, Senior Director, Climate and Energy, United Nations Foundation and University of Maryland, United States

Peter H. Raven, President, Missouri Botanical Garden, United States

UNITED NATIONS–SIGMA XI SCIENTIFIC EXPERT GROUP ON CLIMATE CHANGEAuthors, Reviewers, and Contributors

www.confrontingclimatechange.org

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OUTLINE

1. Introductions2. Requirements for a Habitable Planet3. Climate Change Signatures4. Global Radiation Balance5. Atmospheric Processes and Models6. Future Action – What can we do?7. Philosophy for Confronting Climate Change

References

Sept. 14 ‐‐ Dr. Russell Philbrick, Global Scale of Climate Change

Sept. 21 ‐‐ Dr. Lonnie Liethhold, Historical Perspective of Climate Change

Sept. 28 ‐‐ Dr. Anantha Aiyyer, Impact of Climate Change on Significant Weather Events

Oct. 5 ‐‐ Dr. Dave DeMaster, Climate Change and High Latitudes

Oct. 12 ‐‐ Dr. William Kinsella,Climate Changes and the Future of Society

Oct. 19 ‐‐ Dr. Philbrick and Others, Climate Change Action Path and Wrap‐up Session.

OLLI – Our Changing Climate1:15‐2:45 on Wednesdays

1.  Introduction

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OLLI Lecture – September 14, 2016OUR CHANGING CLIMATEProf. Russell Philbrick

MEAS Department, NCSUPhysics Department, NCSU

Emeritus Professor, Penn State University

Background of Lecturer:NCSU Physics: BS (62), MS (64), PhD (66)1966-1987 - AF Cambridge Research Lab, Hanscom AFB, MA1988-2009 - Penn State University, Electrical Engineering Dept.2009-present - NCSU

Recommended Readings:Jared Diamond, Collapse, How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed,

Penguin Books 2005Thomas Friedman, Hot, Flat and Crowded, Farrar, Straus and Giroux, NY 2008IPCC 2013 Vol 1-The Physical Science Basis - FINAL

2013/2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Reports, IPCC Vol 1 2013 Report (1552 pg, 375 MB), http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/IPCC Vol 2 2014 Report, http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/report/final-drafts/

The Third National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, doi:10.7930/J0Z31WJ2.2014 US National Climate Assessment, 3rd Report,NCA3, (814 pg, 174 MB) http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/downloads

CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE: AVOIDING THE UNIMANAGEABE AND MANAGING THE UNAVOIDABLE, Executive Summary, prepared by The Scientific Research Society, Sigma Xi, for the United Nations Foundation, 2007, www.conftontingclimatechance.org

National Academy of Science Reports (49 identified on Climate Change)

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Our BluePlanet

What are factorsthat have allowed lifeforms to develop on this planet?

2. Requirements for a Habitable Planet

Life on Planet Earth –

Supporting and Sustaining ConditionsLong‐lifetime star (late development of our galaxy)

Close enough to galaxy center to have heavy isotopic masses

Far enough from galaxy center for low energetic radiation levels

Global radiation balance is controlled primarily by “greenhouse” gasses and the planetary albedo (and radiation from Sun)

Distance from Sun in life sustaining region (temperature)

Atmosphere that supports life forms – water, oxygen

Atmosphere removes (cosmic rays, ‐radiation, X‐ray, UV)Atmosphere protects against interplanetary dust and meteors

Magnetic field rigidity protects against energetic ionized particles

Water vapor transports latent heat, distributes energy to poles

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Habitable regions of our Milkyway galaxy are very limitedScientific American, pg 63, October 2001.

Venus, Earth’s sister planet. (similar size, gravity, and 

bulk composition)

Venus has a run‐away greenhouse atmosphere.Atmosphere at Surface*Temperature  460oCPressure   93 bars~96.5% Carbon dioxide~3.5% Nitrogen0.015% Sulfur dioxide*Wikipedia

Venus is believed to have had water oceans, but these evaporated as the temperature rose. The water probably dissociated, and hydrogen was swept into interplanetary space. 

Our atmosphere is subject to non‐linear processes, which we do not know how to model to determine the tipping point. 

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This is not an acceptable alternative!IBM Advertisement Websphere for Mankind – Back cover Discover Magazine September 2001.

The basic question – Can scientific, political, corporate and public interests come together to provide solutions for societal issues?

The primordial atmosphere of Earth had no oxygen. Present 21% of O2 is due to plant production by photosynthesis which produced oil and coal deposits.

Chemistry of Atmospheres, R.P. Wayne, Oxford Science Publication, 1991.

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3.  Climate Change Signatures

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2007

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Temperature andCO2 Changes

Past and Projected Changes

Global Mean Sea Level Changes –Measurements and Model Projections

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Oceans become more acidic as they absorb CO2

CO2 Chlorophyll O2

~1 ppm/yr

~2 ppm/yr

~2.5 ppm/yr

1958 – 320 ppm2011 – 391 ppm2016 – 400.33 ppm 8 Sept.

The oscillation follows the summer/winter conversion of CO2.

Mauna Loa Observatory

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4. Radiation Balance

Sun Emission Earth Emission

Atmospheric Transmission

Visible Spectrum

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Ultraviolet Visible Infrared

%A

%A

Water Molecule - Energy States

http://www.lsbu.ac.uk/water/images/v1.gif

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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Vol 1, Climate Change 2013

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Global Mean Radiative Balance

1367 W/m2 at Top of Atmosphere

5.  Atmospheric Processes and Models

GtC = Gigaton ofCarbon

= 1015 grams= 3.67 GtCO2

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Ice Loss/Gain2003 to 2012

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Temperature Change (1861‐1880 Average)

Compared with CO2 (Gigaton)Emissions and Projections

PgC = GtC

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Measurements & Models forRadiative Forcing(W/m2) and Surface Temperature (oC)

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GtC = Giga tons of Carbonhttp://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library/CarbonCycle/carbon_cycle4.html

Photosynthesis reaction 6CO2 + 6H2O → C6H12O6 + 6O2

We release 5.5 x 109 (billion) tons of carbon by burning fossil fuels each year.From this, 3.3 x 109 tons goes into the atmosphere and the rest into the ocean.

National Earth Science Teachers Association

The yellow line marks the mid‐Pliocene shoreline when the global sea level was about 25 m higher, three million years ago.

American Scientist Vol 99, pg 232, 2011 

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The Issues:(1) Present CO2 levels are approaching 400 ppm (>500 ppm by 2050)(2) Most scientists that have studied the problem agree that unacceptable

climate changes will have occurred by the time CO2 reaches 450 ppm(3) Fossil fuels account for 80% of the world’s energy use(4) Today energy relies on digging or pumping 7 billion tons of carbon

each year that is mostly input to the atmosphere(5) Today the global input is ~ 7x109 tons per year and at present rate of

growth that will be 14 billion tons per year by 2056(6) US produces 25% of carbon emission with 5% of population(7) Residential and commercial buildings account for > 60% of electric use(8) Coal based synfuels add as much or more CO2 as a gasoline car(9) Corn based biofuels add as much CO2 and may do more ecological

damage because of fertilizers(10) A definite temperature increase is measured during the past 50 years

(20 of the hottest years on record occurred since 1980)(11) US did not sign the Kyoto Protocol (reduce emission 7% below 1990 level)(12) No simple single fix will help to avert the eventual possibility of a

“run-away greenhouse”

Robert Socolow and Stephen Pacla, “A Plan to Keep Carbon in Check” Sci. American, Sept. 2006

5. Future Action – What can we do?

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Robert Socolow and Stephen Pacla, “A Plan to Keep Carbon in Check” Sci. American, Sept. 2006

Each Wedge Represents 1 Billion Tons of CO2/Yr

Require minimum of seven wedges to limit CO2 at survival level(wedges only count if added use of technologies that have already been demonstrated)

# Wedges1 – Lower birth rate to hold global population below 8 billion people in 20561 – Curtail the emissions of methane (CH4)2 – Eliminate deforestation1 – Wide spread use of synfuels with capture and storage of CO2

2 – Expand the number of nuclear power plants by factor of five to displace conventional coal power plants

2 – Cut electricity use in building by half through use of super-efficient lighting and appliances

1 – Industrial use of electricity more efficiently1 – Increased efficiency of automobiles1 – Efficiency in transportation (other than automobile)1 – Capture and store the carbon emissions from the present coal power plants1 – capture and store carbon from large natural gas power plants-1 to -3 – 700 coal power plants (1000 MW) emit one wedge (a few thousand

such plants are presently expected to be built – natural gas plants burn half as much carbon per unit of electricity)

Robert Socolow and Stephen Pacla, “A Plan to Keep Carbon in Check” Sci. American, Sept. 2006

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At what level will we experience irreversible changes?

Concept of several wedges to arrive at a solution.

Hold CO2 constant without choking economic growth.

2056 Goals60 mpg carcut electricity use in homes and buildings by halfcarbon sequestering (capture and storage)reduce coal use and increased green power productionincreased alternative sources (solar cells, wind, waves)

What set of polices will result in saving seven wedges?(a wedge represents 1 billion tons of carbon per year)

Yeh, Sonia and David McCollum. "Optimizing Climate Mitigation Wedges for the Transportation Sector." In STEPS Book: Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis.

CO2 Reductions

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Wind PowerGoal: 20% of US Power by 2030

Energy Sources

Smil, Global Energy, Am. Scientist, 99, p212, 2011

Scientific American, September 2005

Improve efficiency in design, construction, heating/cooling systems, appliances, industrial methods, and electrical transmission.

Particularly, cleaner transportation and generation of electrical energy.

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CO2 is captured at Salah gas project in Algerian desert. Compressed gas is injected into a brine deposit at 2 km depth –the rate is 1/6 of that required for a 1,000 MW coal gasification plant fitted for capture and storage.

Socolow, Can We Bury Global Warming? Sc. Am.,pg 49, July 2005

Global Population Status and Projected Growth

Population

Scientific American, September 2005

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The activities of man are changing the face of our planet. The resources of our planet are stretched. The quality of air, water and earth are deteriorating.

PopulationAirWaterOceanLandBiodiversityEnergy

http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/photo-gallery.htm

A view of fragile Earth

We must become better stewards of our Earth home!

7. Philosophy for Confronting Climate Change

Perspective –

Our universe has been hereabout 14 billion years,

Our solar system formedabout 4 billion years ago,

Man has been walking this planet about 4 million years,

Civilization’s roots for modernsociety are about 2500 years old,

The industrial revolution toproduce our goods and servicesbegan about 100 years ago.

Olympus Photo Deluxe, 2000

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Become environment stewardElectricity, Water, Recycle

Improve use of energy resourcesUse computer for paperless society

Plan for conservation Consider the life cycle

Plan for resource preservationTeach others, educate young & adult

Practice personal conservationBe an example

What can you do?

http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/photo-gallery.htm

What can I do as an individual to conserve resources?Use low phosphate detergentUse low flow faucet aeratorReuse containersEnd junk mailUse unbleached paper Use sponge or cloth to wipe spillsUse less heating and ACReduce water use in toiletLow-flow showerheadShower-soap-shower (30-35%)Water flow – brush teeth – waterConserve electricity use Insulate homeReduce travel by car – use publicRecycle glass, plastic, metal, paperPlant a tree (avg use is 7 per year)Eat low on food chainTeach others to conserveSupport conservation with your pen50 Simple Things You Can Do to Save Earth, Earth Works Press, 1991.

Olympus Photo Deluxe, 2000

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EACH OF US CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE!

Olympus Photo Deluxe, 2000

ReferencesJared Diamond, “Collapse – How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed” Penguin Books Ltd, London, 2005Thomas L. Friedman, “Hot , Flat, and Crowded” Farrar, Strauss and Giroux, New York, 2008IPCC 4th Assessment, 2007, and IPCC 5th Assessment, 2013-14IBM Advertisement Websphere for Mankind – Back cover Discover Magazine September 2001.Fusion Plasmas – http://www.plasma.org/photo-fusion.htmNASA Photos - http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/photo-gallery.htm50 Simple Things You Can Do to Save Earth, Earth Works Press, 1991.Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter, National Research Council, 1998.Technology and Environment – National Academy of Engineering, 1989.Scientific American, June 2001, July 2001, October 2001, September 2005.Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming – National Academy Press, 1991.Environmental Physics, Boeker and Grondelle, John Wiley & Sons, 1995.Planet Earth, Cesare Emilliani, Cambridge University Press, 1995.Chemistry of Atmospheres, R.P. Wayne, Oxford Science Publication, 1991.Kwok, Ronold, and Norbert Untersteiner, “Thinning of Artic Sea Ice” Physics Today, April 2011Energy’s Future Beyond Carbon, Scientific American, September 2006Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Desertification Synthesis. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC. http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/index.aspxClimate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)

http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tarSocolow, Can We Bury Global Warming? Sc. Am., 49, July 2005Our Solar Power Future – The US Photovoltaics Industry Roadmap Through 2030 and Beyond,

http://www.solar.udel.edu/pdf/SEIA%20Roadmap.pdfThird National Climate Assessment, NCA3, 2014 http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/downloadsConfronting Climate Change: Avoiding and Managing, Summary, 2007, www.conftontingclimatechance.org

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Climate change in Earth History– a perspective on the

future

Dr. Lonnie LeitholdDepartment of Marine, Earth, and

Atmospheric Sciences

135 years of data

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The other CO2 problem– Ocean Acidification

26 years of data

Earth History

First hominid fossils: about 7 million years old (Miocene Epoch)

First modern humans (Homo sapiens sapiens): 33,000 years ago (last 0.0007%)

Millions of years ago

Formation of the planet, 4.6 billion years ago

Time of “obvious life,” past ~600 million years

Youn

ger

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Many of us have a sense that climate has changedHow do we know?What can we learn from the past?

Climate in Earth History– Key Points

We know a great deal about climate change over Earth’s history based on numerous climate “proxies”The Earth’s past gives us important insights into the impacts of climate changeWhen we look at the past, what stands out about the present is the rate of climate change

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The Earth’s history “book”

Sedimentary strata in the Grand Canyon record over 1 billion years of history

Ocean and lake sediments contain very detailed records of past environmental conditions, including climate

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Climate Proxies– Rock Types

Glacial tillite Coal

An “evaporate” mineral

Glaciers and glacial deposits

Glaciers are “rivers of ice” that flow under their own weight

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Formation of glaciers

Glaciers form when snow accumulates for a long time–summer temperatures are criticalAs the snow is buried, pressure causes the snow to covert to small ice grains, and eventually these ice grains recrystallize to form glacial ice

How do we know about past glaciers?--Glacial erosion and deposition

Glaciers are very effective at eroding the rocks over which they flowWhen they melt back they leave behind large volumes of sediment of all sizes

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Glacial tills and tillites

Till is the term we use for “poorly sorted” sediment left behind by glaciers when they melt

Glacial till in Minnesota, about 18,000 years old

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Tillite = Till that has been “lithified”, turned to rock

More clues left behind by glaciers:Ice rafted debris- Dropstones

Icebergs are pieces of ice that have broken off glaciers and float on lakes or the oceanCommonly icebergs release rocks that drop into muddy sediments below

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Ice-rafted debris-- dropstones

700 million year old dropstone from Virginia (!)

Climate Proxies-- Fossils

50 million year old pollen grains100 million year old breadfruit leaf from Greenland

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Evidence from fossil leaf “shape”

Plants are very sensitive to climatePlants growing in humid, tropical areas have leaves that have smooth (“entire”) margins and drip tips

Evidence from fossil leaf “shape”

Plants growing in temperate climates have more jagged or “toothed” margins

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Evidence from fossil leaves and pollenA study of fossil leaves in North America provides evidence for gradual cooling and drying of the climate, especially between 30 and 40 million years ago

Climate Proxies– Chemical clues

Isotopes are different forms of elements (with variable numbers of neutrons) Oxygen, for example, exists in three stable forms: 16O, 17O, 18O

16O 99.76%17O 0.04%18O 0.20%

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Isotope “Behavior”Molecules with different isotopes of a particular element have different masses and bonding characteristics. The bond involving the light isotope is usually weaker and easier to break.As a result, the molecules with different isotopes behave a little bit differently during chemical reactions, as well as during such physical processes as evaporation and condensation.

18O

H H

16O

H H

Two water molecules

heavier lighter

Foraminifera (”forams”): one-celled marine organismswith shells constructed of calcium carbonate CaCO3

Shells are sand-sized and are abundant in sediments from the deep sea

We can measure the proportions of the most abundant O isotopes, 16O and 18O, in their shells

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Climate signals from foraminifera shells in deep sea deposits– 18O/16O

The temperature of the water has an effect on the proportion of oxygen isotopes that the forams use to make their shells—if it is colder, they tend to use relatively more 18OThe melting and freezing of glaciers has an even larger effect on the proportion of 18O and 16O in seawater, and hence in foram shells

Foram shell composed of CaCO3

Evidence from the chemistry of foraminifera shells

When glaciers form, they lock away 16O, on land and the oceans become relatively enriched in 18ODuring glacial times, therefore, forams will have shells that are relatively rich in 18O

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18O/16O in forams from

Cenozoic sediments (past 65.5

million years)

More 18O = colder ocean temperatures and

more ice on Earth

Zachos et al. 2001, Science

We will use these data to look at climate change at three different time scales

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Green House vs Ice House Climates– 100 million year cycles

Times when continents were moving rapidly apart were times of rapid seafloor spreading, high volcanic activity and high atmospheric CO2 contentThere was little or no glacial ice

Silurian (430 Ma)

Cretaceous (100 Ma)

Greenhouse Earth

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Times of when “supercontinents” were nearly or totally assembled are times of slow seafloor spreading, lower volcanic activity and atmospheric CO2 levels, and large continental ice caps

Permian (280 Ma)

Pleistocene (50 Ka)

Icehouse Earth

Cenozoic Climate– The past 65.5 million years

During the Cenozoic Era, the Earth has undergone a dramatic cooling of climate– a transition from Greenhouseto IcehouseThe cooling reached its maximum during the Pleistocene Epoch, beginning 1.8 million years ago

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Glacial-Interglacial Cycles of the past 1.8 million years

Glacial-Interglacial Cycles of the past 1.8 million years

The advances and retreats of glaciers in the late Cenozoic are related to variations in the earth’s orbit (Milankovitchcycles)

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Last Glacial MaximumThe last glacial peak was about 18,000 years ago, at which time Canada and the upper U.S. were covered with ice

The current interglacialIn the normal course of Milankovitch cycles, apart from any warming induced by humans, the present interglacial should give way within about 2,000 years to a gradual, uneven decline in global temperature and a major ice age about 23,000 years from now.

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The man-made super-interglacial

Global temperatures are projected to rise by 2.5 to 5.0 degrees C by the year 2300

How does this compare to climate changes of the past?

We know that the Earth’s mean temperature has decreased by about 5 degrees C in the past 50 million years

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How does this compare to climate changes of the past?

Between 18,000 and 7000 years ago, orbital changes melted the ice sheet in the northern Hemisphere

How does this compare to climate changes of the past?

In this time period, global temperature warmed by 4-6 degrees C

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How does this compare to climate changes of the past?

Cause of change Rate of change(degrees C per 100 yr)

Tectonics (Greenhouse/Icehouse)

0.00001 (1/100,000)

Orbital variations 0.05

Anthropogenic greenhouse gases

0.83 to 1.66 (17-33X the rate of change due to orbital variations)

Do we have any analogues from Earth History?– the closest is an event called the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) that occurred about 56 million years ago

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The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)

3000 Pg (petagram = 1015 g) of carbon input to the environment over 4000-6000 years Carbon isotopes point to release of frozen biologically-produced gas (methane)

1 Pg= 1.1 billion US tons

Possible sources are frozen methane hydrates from the oceans and/or permafrost

Possible sources are frozen methane hydrates from the oceans and/or permafrost

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The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)

Led to global warming of 6oCCaused dissolution of carbonate shells in the deep sea

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)

Other impacts: Increased intensity of hydrologic cycle (storms,

flooding) and erosion ratesMigrations and turnover of many terrestrial and marine

organisms, including mammals and plants Major extinction of bottom-dwelling forams, but the

extinction rate in general is minor compared to other times in Earth history (such as the end of the Cretaceous Period)

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Comparison of the PETM to the Anthropocene

PETM AnthropoceneCarbon released or potentially released, in Petagrams (Pg)

~3000 Fossil fuel reserves: 1000-2000

Fossil fuel resources: 3000-13,500

Annual rate of carbon release

1.1 Pg 10 Pg in 2014

pH drop in surface ocean waters

- 0.4 total (over 4000-6000 years)

-0.1 (-0.3 by end of century)

1 Pg= 1.1 billion US tons

Reserves = technically and economically ready to be produced

Resources = total amount estimated to be “in the ground”

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Climate in Earth History– Key Points

We know a great deal about climate change over Earth’s history based on numerous climate “proxies”The Earth’s past gives us important insights into the impacts of rapid climate changeWhen we look at the past, what stands out about the present is the rate of climate change

Uncharted Territory Ahead

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Climate Change from the Marine Perspective: Impacts and Signals from

High LatitudesDr. Dave DeMaster

Dept. of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

North Carolina State UniversityOctober 5th, 2016

Climate Change Themes Discussed Today- CO2 in the Atmosphere (Past and Present)- Global Temperature Changes through Time:

Natural and Anthropogenic- The Carbon Cycle: Forcing and Budgets- Ocean Acidification- Impacts of Climate Change in High Latitudes

* Sea Ice Abundance and Sea Ice Formation* Ocean Circulation and Climate Change* Sea Level Rise and Climate Change* Melting of Continental Ice Sheets

- Climate Change Impacts Closer to Home: North Carolina- The latest Global Climate Change Agreement: The Paris

Agreement- Counteracting Climate Change: What you can do.

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There is Some Urgency in Taking Action to Limit Green House Gas

Emissions and Limit Climate Change

Remaining Supplies of Fossil Fuels

Oil 40 YearsNat. Gas 80 YearsCoal 1000 Years

Renewables: 13% of total power(19% of electricity generation)

Nuclear: 15% of total power

Fossil Fuel: >70% of total power

The Ice Core Record:(A Geological Time Perspective of Atmospheric CO2)

Drilling at Vostoc, Antarctica

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The Ice Core Record Shows a Clear Correlation between CO2Content of the Atmosphere and High-Latitude Temperature. The Earth Has Performed the Greenhouse Experiment for Us, Dozens of Times (although Rush Limbaugh won’t admit it)!!!

Glacial-Interglacial Temperature changes correspond to ~4-5 degrees C in global temperature change.

Natural versus Anthropogenic changes in the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere.

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The World Was Very Different 18,000 y ago When Global Temperatures Were Just 4-5 degrees C colder. How Much Will it Change, When the Earth is 3-4 Degrees Warmer in the next 50-100 years?

2-3 miles thick

How Well Do We Understand the Processes Causing Climate Change?

Figure TS.5

Figure TS.5

IPCC- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Pretty well, especially with regard to CO2forcing!

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How Have Global Temperatures Varied Over the Past 100 to 1000 years?

Most of the temperature increase since the late 1800’s was coming out of a Little Ice Age (not human induced)Remember Al Gore and “Inconvenient Truth”?

BOTTOM LINE…most

warming in recent decades is due to people!

Grey = modelRed = data

Why Do Scientists Believe that Humankind has Contributed to Global Warming? When did this first start to occur?

We must incorporate both natural and anthropogenic forcing to match the observed changes in Temperature

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Anthropogenic perturbation of the global carbon cycle

Perturbation of the global carbon cycle caused by anthropogenic activities,averaged globally for the decade 2005–2014 (GtCO2/yr)

Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015

The Global Carbon Project is the best resource to get up-to-date information on the global carbon cycle and climate change. It’s website is: www.globalcarbonproject.org

Global carbon budget

The carbon sources from fossil fuels, industry, and land use change emissions are balanced by the atmosphere and carbon sinks on land and in the ocean

Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015

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Global carbon budget

The cumulative contributions to the global carbon budget from 1870

Figure concept from Shrink That FootprintSource: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013;

Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015

Sources and Sinks for CO2 in

the Atmosphere

.

The remaining carbon quota for 66% chance <2°C

The total remaining emissions from 2014 to keep global average temperature change below 2°C (900GtCO2) will be used in ~20 years at current emission rates.

Grey: Total quota for 2°C. Green: Removed from quota. Blue: remaining quota.With projected 2015 emissions, this remaining quota drops to 865 Gt CO2

Source: Peters et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015

Likely emissions (past and future) necessary to have a 66% chance of keeping the global temperature change <2oC (as a result of human activity).

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Breakdown of global emissions by country

Emissions from Annex B countries have slightly declined since 1990Emissions from non-Annex B countries have increased rapidly in the last decade

Annex B countries had emission commitments in the Kyoto Protocol (excluding Canada and USA)Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015

Which countries (past and present) have emitted most of the CO2to the atmosphere? USA, you are the world leader (cumulatively)!

Total global emissions by source

Land-use change was the dominant source of annual CO2 emissions until around 1950

Others: Emissions from cement production and gas flaringSource: CDIAC; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015

What is the source of the CO2 in the atmosphere? A combination of coal, oil and natural gas.

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9.5±2.9 GtCO2/yr26%

Fate of anthropogenic CO2 emissions (2005-2014 average)

Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015

30%10.9±1.8 GtCO2/yr

33.0±1.6 GtCO2/yr 91%

3.4±1.8 GtCO2/yr 9%

16.0±0.4 GtCO2/yr44%

Calculated as the residualof all other flux components

Sources

Partitioning

Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2005-2014)

Burning Fossil Fuels

Land-Use Change

Atmospheric Accumulation

Oceanic Uptake

Land Sink (by difference)

Changes in the budget over time

The sinks have continued to grow with increasing emissions, but climate change will affect carbon cycle processes in a way that will exacerbate the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere

Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015

Data: GCP

Sources

Sinks

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Uptake of CO2 by the Ocean comes at a cost: Ocean Acidification

The causes of Ocean Acidification and Global Climate Change are the same! Increased addition of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere and ocean. The lower the pH the more acidic the water!

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C

O

C

C

O

L

I

T

H(10 um)

(600 um)

F

O

R

A

M

C

O

R

A

L

Ocean Acidification makes it much harder for these CaCO3biota to make their hard parts (shells and skeletons).

BIVALVES

Ocean Acidification: The Other CO2 ProblemAnnual Review of Marine ScienceVol. 1: 169-192 (Volume publication date January 2009) DOI: 10.1146/annurev.marine.010908.163834

Interested in Any Further Reading on Ocean Acidification?

The references for two of the best articles are:

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Predicted Temperature Changes from Doubling Atmospheric CO2 Levels

Warming in the future is predicted to be most extensive during winter in the high latitudes!

BOULDER, Colorado (CNN) -- Ice cover in the Arctic Ocean, long held to be an early warning of a changing climate, has shattered the all-time low record this summer, according to scientists from the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder. It is possible that Arctic sea ice could decline even further this year before the onset of winter.

Using satellite data and imagery, NSIDC now estimates the Arctic ice pack covers 4.24 million square kilometers (1.63 million square miles) -- equal to just less than half the size of the United States. This figure is about 20 percent less than the previous all-time low record of 5.32 million square kilometers (2.05 million square miles) set in September 2005. Most researchers had anticipated that the complete disappearance of the Arctic ice pack during summer months would happen after the year 2070, he said, but now, "losing summer sea ice cover by 2030 is not unreasonable."

Arctic sea ice cover at record lowupdated 3:20 p.m. EDT, Tue September 11, 2007 CNN

Sea Ice in the Arctic is Disappearing at an Alarming Rate!

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This figure illustrates the extent to which Arctic sea ice is melting faster than projected by computer models. The dotted line represents the average rate of melting indicated by computer models, with the blue area indicating the spread among the different models (shown as plus/minus one standard deviation). The red line shows the actual rate of Arctic ice loss based on observations. The observations have been particularly accurate since 1979 because of new satellite technology. (Illustration by Steve Deyo, ©UCAR).

In Fact, Arctic Sea Ice is Melting Faster than the Global Warming Models Predict!!!

Surface melt on the Greenland ice sheet descending into a moulin. The moulin is a nearly vertical shaft worn in the glacier by surface water, which carries the water to the base of the ice sheet and then on to the ocean. (Photo courtesy of Roger Braithwaite and Jay Zwally.)

In Addition to Sea Ice Melting, Some of the Polar Ice Caps Are Beginning to Show Signs of Melting

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Bottom Water Formation Occurs in Areas of Sea Ice Formation (such as the North Atlantic Ocean and the Antarctic Weddell Sea).

As both sea ice and ice shelves diminish, less bottom water formation occurs, which may affect the global thermohaline circulation of the ocean. This conveyor belt brings warm surface water to Europe (in our Gulf Stream), so less bottom water formation may affect temperatures in Europe.

Diminished Sea Ice Production (as a result of global warming) may change the heat transport pathways for the planet!

Is There Any Evidence That Bottom Water Formation and Climate Change May Be Correlated?

13,000 years ago a massive ice sheet covering Canada melted as the climate warmed. This released lots of freshwater to the North Atlantic, which decreased bottom water formation (and the “conveyor belt”), which led to several thousand years (Younger Dryas) of cooling in Europe.

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Another Serious Ramification of Global Warming is Sea Level Rise!

Scientists are trying to incorporate concerns that their early drafts underestimate how much the sea level will rise by 2100 because they cannot predict how much ice will melt from Greenland and Antarctica. In early drafts, scientists predicted a sea level rise of no more than 58 centimeters (23 inches) by 2100, but that does not include the polar ice sheet melts, which recently show signs of melting.

IPCC Report, 2012

What Happens to Sea Level if Greenland and the Antarctic Ice Sheets Melt?

Continental Ice Sheet Equivalent Sea Level Rise

Greenland Ice Sheet 5 meters

West Antarctic Ice Sheet 6 meters

East Antarctic Ice Sheet 70 meters

Result: Raleigh becomes ocean-front property!!

Even if 1-3% of this ice melts, it will have a significant impact on sea level!

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Hurricane Dennis

How Sensitive Are We Here in North Carolina to Sea Level Rise? --Very High!

From the Raleigh News and Observer: January 31st, 2012 --

One day of warm or cold does not provide good evidence of a long-term trend, such as climate. However, decadal changes in agriculture (and temperature) are good integrators of the global warming process.

Other Evidence of Climate Change Here in the Carolinas!

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In the Antarctic (90% of the World’s Ice), What Ice Sheet is the Most Vulnerable to Global Warming?

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (corresponding to 6 m of sea level rise) is surrounded by warming waters. The Antarctic Peninsula is experiencing some of the most rapid warming on the planet! The proverbial “Canary in the Coal Mine”!

Recent Breakup of Antarctic Ice Shelves

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The big concern about Antarctic ice shelves melting is that they may be holding the continental ice sheets back from moving to the ocean, where they may experience warmer temperatures and increased melting (leading to higher rates of sea level rise).

Why is the Breakup of Antarctic Ice Shelves Such a Big Concern?

Dr. D’s

Research

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Ice shelves, especially those on the Antarctic Peninsula, are exhibiting increased calving and melting. This figure shows the location of all of the ice shelves surrounding Antarctica. Note that the ones that are melting, as well as the biggest ones, are associated with the West Antarctic regime, which is experiencing rapid warming as a result of Climate Change.

Adopted by consensus on 12 December 2015

Signed 22 April 2016 (Earth Day) in New York City

Status: Not in Effect Yet!

The Paris AgreementFor the USA, who was the only industrialized country in the world that didn’t ratify the Kyoto Protocol, THIS IS A BIG DEAL!!!

(Since 1992 Conv. Cl. Change) COP21/CMP11 (Kyoto 1997)

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The Aims of the Paris Agreement are:1) Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change; (2) Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development, in a manner that does not threaten food production; (3) Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development. "Countries furthermore aim to reach "global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible“. The Paris dealis the world’s first comprehensive climate agreement (sort of).

The Paris Agreement is an agreement within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) dealing with greenhouse gases emissions mitigation, adaptation and finance starting in the year 2020. The language of the agreement was negotiated by representatives of 195 countries at the 21st Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC in Paris in December 2015.

The Paris Agreement: What People Want

A Global Perspective

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Nationally determined contributions and their limitsThe contribution that each individual country should make in order to achieve the worldwide goal are determined by all countries individually and called "nationally determined contributions" (NDCs). Article 3 requires them to be "ambitious", and should be reported every five years. Each further ambition should be more ambitious than the previous one, known as the principle of 'progression'. The Intended Nationally Determined Contributions pledged during the 2015 Climate Change Conference as the initial Nationally determined contribution. However the 'contributions' themselves are not binding as a matter of international law, as they lack the specificity, normative character, or obligatory language necessary to create binding norms. Furthermore, there will be no mechanism to force a country to set a target in their NDC by a specific date and no enforcement if a set target in an NDC is not met. There will be only a "name and shame" system.

The Paris Agreement: Limitations

2015 Paris Agreement: StatusCurrently, there are 191 signatories to the Paris Agreement. Of these, 62 Parties to the Convention have also deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance or approval accounting in total for 52 % of the total global greenhouse gas emissions.

Party or signatory

Percentage ofgreenhouse

gases forratification

Date ofsignature

Date of deposit of instruments of

Ratificationor

Accession

Brazil 2.48% 22 April 2016 21 September 2016

China 20.09% 22 April 2016 3 September 2016

India 4.10% 22 April 2016 2 October 2016

United States 17.89% 22 April 2016 3 September 2016

Total 98.20% 191 62 (52% of global emissions)

Marshall Islands 0.00% 22 April 2016 22 April 2016

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The emission pledges (INDCs) of the top-4 emitters

The emission pledges from the US, EU, China, and India leave little room for other countries to emit in a 2°C emission budget (66% chance)

Source: Peters et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015

Indirectly, the USA and the other 3 top emitters are asking the rest of the world to stop emitting CO2 by 2030 or let the world experience temperature changes of 2oC or more.

What Can We Do To Counteract Global Warming and Ocean Acidification?

• Stay informed about the scientific advances in global climate change and ocean acidification science (i.e., this course).

• Don’t believe everything that you hear (e.g., D. Trump) or you read (e.g., Michael Crichton’s State of Fear). Critical Thinking!

• Burning of all fossil fuels adds carbon dioxide to the atmosphere (coal is the least efficient).

• Ethanol in our gasoline is better than burning pure gasoline (but it still adds CO2 to the atmosphere).

• Support non-carbon emitting forms of energy production such as photo-voltaic/solar, wind energy, or nuclear power.

• Be conscious of your individual carbon foot print and try to keep it to a minimum (e.g., walk or bike more, eat local food).

• Be careful of new fads in fossil fuel energy production (e.g., “fracking” and “clean coal” (there is lots of spin out there).

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Go Wolfpack!These High-Latitude Ecosystems Are Quite Fragile – But They Accommodate Some of the Most Spectacular Fauna on the Planet.

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Speaking of Climate Change: Social, Political, and Cultural DimensionsWilliam Kinsella

Department of CommunicationNorth Carolina State University

wjkinsel@ncsu.eduOur Changing Climate

Osher Lifelong Learning Institute12 October 2016

Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / wjkinsel@ncsu.edu 1

wjkinsel@ncsu.eduSlides and handout prepared for limited distribution in connection with NCSU-Osher Lifelong Learning Institute class, Fall 2016

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Clarification: No Crystal Ball• “What do the climate changes portend for future society, in the days of our children and grandchildren?”

• “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” — attributed to Yogi Berra

• “Path dependence” and “lock-in”

Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / wjkinsel@ncsu.edu 3

Overview• A social science & humanities perspective• A communication & rhetoric perspective• Living in a risk society• Anthropogenic climate change: the

Anthropocene epoch?• Climate change as a societal challenge• Climate change as a political challenge• Climate change as a communication challenge• Closing thoughts• Discussion

Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / wjkinsel@ncsu.edu 4

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A Social Science and Humanities Perspective• Natural sciences: law-governed world,

prediction, control, positive knowledge• Social sciences: rule-governed world (at

best), understanding, improvement, discursive/narrative knowledge

• Humanities: poetic world, connection, empathy, emotive/aesthetic/narrative knowledge

• Interdisciplinarity: collaboration across these boundaries

Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / wjkinsel@ncsu.edu 5

A Communication and Rhetoric Perspective• Models of communication:

-- information transfer (a limited model)-- cooperation, negotiation, coordination-- dialog-- creates knowledge-- makes a social (and material!) world

• Rhetoric, not “mere rhetoric”• Rhetoric as basis for action under conditions

of uncertainty• All communication is political communication

Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / wjkinsel@ncsu.edu 6

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Rhetoric and Democracy“The good [citizen] speaking well” (Quintillian)

The Raging Grannies, Step It Up climate action eventRaleigh, NC, 14 April 2007 (image: W. J. Kinsella)

Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / wjkinsel@ncsu.edu 7

Living in a Risk Society“Risk Society” and “Reflexive Modernity” (Beck)• Historical organizing principle for society:

how to create and distribute resources(production, distribution, consumption)

• New organizing principle: how to manageand distribute risks

• Concept of “risk” is a modern invention,parallels rise of industrial society

• Reflexive, self-produced risks requiresocietal reflexivity

• Climate change as “emancipatory catastrophe”?Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / wjkinsel@ncsu.edu 8

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The Anthropocene Epoch?“Considering . . . [the] major and still growing impacts of human activities on earth and atmosphere…it seems to us more than appropriate to emphasize the central role of mankind in geology and ecology by proposing to use the term ‘anthropocene’ for the current geological epoch.”

— Crutzen & Stoermer (2000)“The Anthropocene could be said to have started in the latter part of the eighteenth century, when [later] analyses of air trappedin polar ice showed the beginning of growingglobal concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane. This date also happens to coincidewith James Watt’s design of the steam engine in 1784.”

— Crutzen (2002) Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / wjkinsel@ncsu.edu 9

The Anthropocene Epoch?“Official recognition of the concept would invite cross-disciplinary science. And it would encourage a mindset that will be important not only to fully understand the transformation now occurring but to take action to control it.…Humans may yet ensure that these early years of the Anthropocene are a geological glitch and not just a prelude to a far more severedisruption. But the first step is to recognize, as the term Anthropocene invites us to do, that we are in the driver’s seat.” (Nature, 2011, p. 254)

Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / wjkinsel@ncsu.edu 10

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Path Dependence and “Lock-in”Past Present Future

Energy TechnologiesWood Coal Coal/Oil/Gas ?

Transportation TechnologiesHorse Steam engine Petroleum ?

Social OrganizationAgrarian Urban Suburban ?

Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / wjkinsel@ncsu.edu 11

Path Dependence and “Lock-in”Past Present FutureAnthropogenic and non-anthropogenicuncertainties

Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / wjkinsel@ncsu.edu 12

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Narratives of Climate Change

Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / wjkinsel@ncsu.edu 13

• Stages of grief: denial, anger, bargaining,depression, acceptance (Kubler-Ross, 1969)

• Individual vs. collective psychology• Individuals at different stages re: climate

change

Seidel & Keyes (1983), Can we Schneider (1989),delay a greenhouse warming? Global warming

Narratives of Climate Change

Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / wjkinsel@ncsu.edu 14

Climate change denial & “business as usual” (BAU)• Manufactured uncertainty (Oreskes & Conway) • Consensus vs. unanimity• Equal time journalism• Deploying contrarian scientists• Details vs. big picture• Cherry-picking examples• Weather vs. climate• Discrediting the messenger

(e.g., “Climategate”)Supertramp, “Crisis? What crisis?” (1975)

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Narratives of Climate Change

Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / wjkinsel@ncsu.edu 15

Climate change denial & “business as usual” (BAU)

from Farmer, G.T., & Cook, J. (2013). Climate change science: A modern synthesis, Volume 1—The physical climate. Dordrecht: Springer.

Narratives of Climate Change

Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / wjkinsel@ncsu.edu 16

Climate change denial & “business as usual” (BAU)

from Farmer, G.T., & Cook, J. (2013). Climate change science: A modern synthesis, Volume 1—The physical climate. Dordrecht: Springer.

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Narratives of Climate Change

Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / wjkinsel@ncsu.edu 17

Anger at (fill in the blank)Capitalism? Mass consumption?Overpopulation? Industry? Technology? Government? Underregulation? Overregulation?Wealthy nations? Populous nations?Aspiring nations?

Total and PerCapita CO2Emissions,2013Source: European Commission Emissions Database for GlobalAtmospheric Research (EDGAR)http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / wjkinsel@ncsu.edu 18

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Climate Change as a Societal and Cultural Challenge• Global problem requires global collaboration• Cultural differences

-- individualistic vs. communalistic cultures-- concepts of progress, democracy,

capitalism, freedom, enterprise-- concepts of community-- concepts of human/nature relationship

• Developmental differences-- population growth-- energy choices

• Environmental and energy justiceKinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / wjkinsel@ncsu.edu 19

Climate Change as Political Challenge: US National LevelEnergy choices (partial list)• Conservation and efficiency (green design, efficiency

standards, grid improvements, smart grid)• Renewable sources:

-- wind (onshore and offshore)-- solar (thermal and photovoltaic)-- hydro, tidal, wave, ocean thermal, geothermal

• Improved fossil fuels? (natural gas, carbon capture &storage)

• Biofuels (natural and synthetic; food/fuel tradeoffs)• Nuclear (cost, safety, waste storage and disposal,

proliferation)• Role of integrated energy policy and planning

Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / wjkinsel@ncsu.edu 20

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Climate Wedges (Pacala & Socolow 2004)

Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / wjkinsel@ncsu.edu 21

Climate Change as Political Challenge: US National LevelIncentives (partial list):• technology research & development subsidies• construction subsidies• loan guarantees• production tax creditsMandates (partial list)

• emissions trading (e.g., cap & trade)• carbon tax• renewable energy portfolios• EPA Clean Power Plan (implementation on hold pending judicial review as of February 2016)Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / wjkinsel@ncsu.edu 22

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Climate Change as Political Challenge: US National Level• Tensions with free-market philosophies• Economic environment• Politics of government scale and scope• Anti-regulation discourse and forms of

regulation • Polarization of political and public

discourse• Politicization of climate science• Role of political leadership• National / state / local levels

Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / wjkinsel@ncsu.edu 23

Climate Change as Political Challenge: International Level• International research collaboration

(e.g., Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange, IPCC, created 1988)

• 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Conference of the Parties (COP)

• Forging international consensus• Roles and expectations: Developed vs.

developing nations, climate equity and justice

Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / wjkinsel@ncsu.edu 24

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Climate Change as Political Challenge: International LevelParis agreement (COP-21)• 195 party consensus December 2015(of 193 UN states)• 191 signatures, 77 ratified, as of October 2016• Effective 4 November 2016• Limits temperature increase to 1.5-2o abovepre-industrial levels• Balances climate response with food production• Encourages global finance measures• Seeks to pass global peak as soon as possible• “Nationally-determined contributions”• Allows international collaboration and pooling

Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / wjkinsel@ncsu.edu 25

Climate Change as Communication Challenge• Public opinion

-- Yale/GMU Climate Project • Media framing and agenda setting• Communicating complexity• Science & technology communication• Risk communication• Fostering public deliberation and debate• Forums and venues for public debate• Fostering agreement and action (is consensus

possible?)• Diverse cultural values and narratives

Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / wjkinsel@ncsu.edu 26

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Closing Thoughts• Climate change is urgent—requires action• Time has not (yet) run out• Some actions require broad

agreement, others do not • Problem requires robust

public conversation • Actions needed at ↑ source: https://www.co2.earth/

individual, community,national, and global levels

• Global climate change interdependence and shared responsibility

Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / wjkinsel@ncsu.edu 27

References• Beck, U. (1992). Risk society: Towards a new modernity. London: Sage.• Carbon brief (2016). https://www.carbonbrief.org/anthropocene-journey-to-new-geological-

epoch• CO2earth. https://www.co2.earth/• Crutzen, P. J. (2002). Geology of mankind,” Nature, Jan 3, p. 23. • Crutzen. P. J., & Stoermer, E. F. (2000). The Anthropocene. International Geosphere-

Biosphere Programme Newsletter, 41, p. 17.• European Commission Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR)

http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/• Farmer, G.T., & Cook, J. (2013). Climate change science: A modern synthesis, Volume

1—The physical climate. Dordrecht: Springer.• Kubler-Ross, E. (1969). On death and dying. New York: Macmillan.• Nature (2011). The human epoch [editorial]. Nature, 473, p. 254.• Oreskes N., Conway E. M. (2010). Merchants of doubt. New York: Bloomsbury.• Pacala, S., & Socolow, R. (2004). Stabilization wedges: Solving the climate problem for

the next 50 years with current technologies. Science, 13 August, 968–972.• Schneider, S. H. (1989), Global Warming: Are We Entering the Greenhouse Century?

Sierra Club Books. • Seidel, S., & Keyes, D. (1983). Can we delay a greenhouse warming? Washington, DC:

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.• Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/

Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / wjkinsel@ncsu.edu 28

10/18/2016

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OUTLINE

Plan for Today’s Class1. Key Points from Prior Classes

Climate Change – Temperature & CO2 Russell Philbrick

Historical Records – Beginning to Now Lonnie Leithold

Sever Weather – Climate Impacts Anantha Aiyyer

High Latitudes – Ocean & Ice Dave DeMaster

Future Society – Necessary Changes Bill Kinsella

2. Radiative Processes and Temperature3. Anthropogenic CO2 a primary cause4. A Focus on the Models – Global Future Environment

5. Today, Future Action – What can we do?Philosophy for Confronting Climate Change

Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

Radiation Balance 2. Radiative Processes and Temperature

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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2007

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We have crossed the 400 ppmthreshold and must work to return to it in the future.September is normally the minimum and it was >400 ppm.

~1 ppm/yr

~2 ppm/yr

~3 ppm/yr

3. Anthropogenic CO2 is primary cause

Data through 9 Oct 2016

The oscillation follows the summer/winter conversion of CO2.CO2 Chlorophyll O2

The CO2 concentration will not go below 400 ppm again until after we get our act together.

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All of the modeling groups show similarfeatures in results

4. A Focus on the Models ‐ Global Future Environment

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Temperature Change (1861‐1880 Average)

Compared with CO2 (Gigaton)Emissions and Projections

Representative Concentration Pathways  (RCPs)

515 PgC in 2011790 PgC is limit to stay below 2 degree rise

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GtC = Gigaton ofCarbon= 1015 grams= 3.67 GtCO2

Anthropogenic Radiative Forcing(W/m2)

Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

1 EJ = 1 x 1018 J1 J = 2.78 x 10‐7 kW‐hr1 EJ = 2.78  1011 kW‐hr

Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

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Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)and ExtendedConcentration Pathways (ECPs)

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1015 Btu = 1 quad = 1.005 EJ1 EJ = 1 x 1018 J1 J = 2.78 x 10‐7 kW‐hr1 EJ = 2.78  1011 kW‐hr

Units:   G  Giga  109 T  Tara  1012 P  Peta  1015 E  Exa 1018

Pg = Gt 1015 grams = 109 tons    Tara‐Watt‐ hours (TWh)

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PgC = GtC

Global Temperature Anomaly (Co)‐3                  ‐2                     ‐1                     0                    +1                    +2                  +3                    +4

Northern Hemisphere  Summer Maximum 

Normal Standard 1951‐1980)

Compare with 2004‐2014

Below Average

Normal Above Average

Extreme Heat

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Global Water Cycle Change 2016 to 2035

EvaporationEvaporation ‐ Precipitation

RunoffSoil Moisture

Specific HumidityRelative Humidity

https://youtu.be/8ADxIBm0QrA

NASA Drought Prediction

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Have We Passed the Point of No Return on Climate Change?While we may not yet have reached the “point of no return”—when no amount of cutbacks on greenhouse gas emissions will save us from potentially catastrophic global warming—climate scientists warn we may be getting awfully close. Since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution a century ago, the average global temperature has risen some 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit. Most climatologists agree that, while the warming to date is already causing environmental problems, another 0.4 degree Fahrenheit rise in temperature, representing a global average atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) of 450 parts per million (ppm), could set in motion unprecedented changes in global climate and a significant increase in the severity of natural disasters—and as such could represent the dreaded point of no return. Greenhouse gas cuts must begin soon or it could be too late to halt global warming

The new Paris Agreement (12 Dec 2015) declares a goal of holding the global average temperature rise to 1.5 degree Celsius if possible, calls for greenhouse gas pollution to be balanced with greenhouse gas removals after 2050, implements a 5‐year cycle of reviews of national plans and actions starting soon as well as monitoring of those actions, and confirms at least $100 billion per year to help those countries most affected by climate changes. It also calls for scientists to weigh in on how exactly the world might aim for 1.5 degree C given that temperatures are already up 1 degree C in 2015—the hottest year on record. Global greenhouse gas pollution must peak "as soon as possible," the pact states. The first official global "stocktake" of efforts to meet all these ambitions of the Paris Pact will occur in 2023. Now, this Paris pact is a reality since 55 nations, representing >55 percent of global greenhouse gas pollution, accepted it (threshold 5 Oct 2016, in force 4 Nov 2016).

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Summary• “Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system. Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.”

• Changes are projected throughout all climate components, in most cases exceeding natural variations by far. Changes in AR5 are similar to those in AR4 for similar scenarios.

• Every ton of CO2 causes about the same amount of warming, no matter when and where it is emitted.

• To limit warming to likely less than 2oC as in RCP2.6 requires total emissions since preindustrial to be limited to less than about 790 PgC (515 PgC were emitted by 2011).

What can you do, either as an individual or on a group, do to help reduce the threat and/or mitigate the consequence of climate change? 

We discussed several possible ideas at the end of the first class.Now is the chance for each of you to put forward your ideas and possible commitments.

My list of ideas:1. Write a letter to President Obama to encourage his support of and his pledge 

to work for reducing the threat of climate change after his term.2. Work to educate students and friends about the importance of climate change.3. Propose a couple of new ideas that I have for research to measure properties 

that could help explain the increase in severe storms and additional heating.4. Try to convince deniers of the scientific facts of climate change.5. Investigate ways to at ways to improve the education of K‐12 students on the 

subject of climate change.

5. Today, Future Action – What can we do?Philosophy for Confronting Climate Change

RCPs ‐ Development Aims and Products  There were five end‐products expected from development process:  1. Four Representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Four RCPs…produced from IAM scenarios available in the published literature: one high pathway for which radiative forcing reaches >8.5 W/m2 by 2100 and continues to rise for some amount of time; two intermediate “stabilization pathways” in which radiative forcing is stabilized at approximately 6 W/m2 and 4.5 W/m2 after 2100; and one pathway where radiative forcing peaks at approximately 3 W/m2 before 2100 and then declines. These scenarios include time paths for emissions and concentrations of the full suite of GHGs and aerosols and chemically active gases, as well as land use/land cover…  2. RCP‐based climate model ensembles and pattern scaling. Ensembles of gridded, time dependent projections of climate change produced by multiple climate models including atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), Earth system models (ESMs), Earth system models of intermediate complexity, and regional climate models will be prepared for the four long‐term RCPs, and high‐resolution, near‐term projections to 2035 for the 4.5 W/m2 stabilization RCP only.  3. New IAM scenarios. New scenarios will be developed by the IAM research community in consultation with the IAV community exploring a wide range of dimensions associated with anthropogenic climate forcing…Anticipated outputs include alternative socioeconomic driving forces, alternative technology development regimes, alternative realizations of Earth system science research, alternative stabilization scenarios including traditional “not exceeding” scenarios, “overshoot” scenarios, and representations of regionally heterogeneous mitigation policies and measures, as well as local and regional socioeconomic trends and policies…  4. Global narrative storylines. These are detailed descriptions associated with the four RCPs produced in the preparatory phase and such pathways developed as part of Product 3 by the IAM and IAV communities. These global and large‐region storylines should be able to inform IAV and other researchers.  5. Integrated scenarios. RCP‐based climate model ensembles and pattern scaling (Product 2) will be associated with combinations of new IAM scenario pathways (Product 3) to create combinations of ensembles. These scenarios will be available for use in new IAV assessments. In addition, IAM research will begin to incorporate IAV results, models, and feedbacks to produce comprehensively synthesized reference.  RCP Primary Characteristics  RCP 8.5 was developed using the MESSAGE model and the IIASA Integrated Assessment Framework by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria. This RCP is characterized by increasing greenhouse gas emissions over time, representative of scenarios in the literature that lead to high greenhouse gas concentration levels (Riahi et al. 2007).  RCP6 was developed by the AIM modeling team at the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) in Japan. It is a stabilization scenario in which total radiative forcing is stabilized shortly after 2100, without overshoot, by the application of a range of technologies and strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions (Fujino et al. 2006; Hijioka et al. 2008).  RCP 4.5 was developed by the GCAM modeling team at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) in the United States. It is a stabilization scenario in which total radiative forcing is stabilized shortly after 2100, without overshooting the long‐run radiative forcing target level (Clarke et al. 2007; Smith and Wigley 2006; Wise et al. 2009).  RCP2.6 was developed by the IMAGE modeling team of the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. The emission pathway is representative of scenarios in the literature that lead to very low greenhouse gas concentration levels. It is a “peak‐and‐decline” scenario; its radiative forcing level first reaches a value of around 3.1 W/m2 by mid‐century, and returns to 2.6 W/m2 by 2100. In order to reach such radiative forcing levels, greenhouse gas emissions (and indirectly emissions of air pollutants) are reduced substantially, over time (Van Vuuren et al. 2007a)