2016 logistics and transportation big box report
TRANSCRIPT
Big-BoxMarket Report
2016 Outlook
North America Report
industrial logistics& transportation solutions
2 A Colliers International publication
Colliers International’s Logistics & Transportation Solutions Group is pleased to present our inaugural research report on 2015’s industrial big-box transactions in North America’s eight largest distribution markets. 2015 was one of the strongest years ever for North America’s industrial real estate market, and the big-box market led the way. This report will give you a summary of North American industrial activity for Class A industrial big-box buildings over 300,000 square feet within the following markets: > Atlanta, GA> Chicago, IL> Dallas, TX> Houston, TX> Greater Los Angeles, CA> Pennsylvania (Eastern) & New Jersey (Southern)> New Jersey (Northern & Central)> Toronto, ON Colliers International’s Logistics & Transportation Solutions Group includes 65 members in North America. Our members are hand-picked for their knowledge, experience, and commitment to broaden their expertise regarding the supply chain issues that drive industrial distribution decisions of our occupier clients. Our goal is to provide thought leadership that helps our investor clients grow their portfolios and our occupier clients understand the market dynamics that affect their location choices and market rents. We hope this report will assist you in formulating your strategy for 2016. Please let us know if you have any questions or feedback.
Best regards,
Jack RosenbeRgNational LeaderLogistics & Transportation Solutions GroupColliers International
Dwight hotchkissNational Director, Industrial | USAColliers International
notes from leadership
32016 Colliers International Big-Box Market Report
service in Motion 5
current snapshot: big-box Rental Rates 6
north america Market Reports 8
1. Atlanta, GA 8
2. Chicago, IL 9
3. Dallas, TX 10
4. Houston, TX 11
5. Greater Los Angeles, CA 12
6. Pennsylvania (Eastern) & New Jersey (Southern) 13
7. New Jersey (Northern & Central) 14
8. Toronto, ON 15
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Contents> What constitutes a
Big-Box Building?• 300,000 SF or Larger Industrial Buildings• Primarily used for Distribution• Ceiling Heights of 28’ Clear or Greater• Pre-Cast or Tilt-Up Concrete Construction
4 A Colliers International publication
>The Logistics & Transportation Solutions Group understandsthat doing business in an interconnected world requires creative, long-term, dynamic real estate decisions. Our industry experts operate with teams to integrate transportation insight, real estate expertise, and effective market research into a single platform.
52016 Colliers International Big-Box Market Report
Service In MotionColliers’ Logistics & Transportation Solutions Group delivers advisory,brokerage, and management services to domestic and international clients,targeting the expanding relationship between goods movement and realestate. Our industry specialists understand the issues that shape and drivethe transportation industry: skyrocketing energy, transportation, and laborcosts; heightened security needs; stringent environmental requirements;and profound changes in global supply chains. Utilizing our experience,talent and insight, we resolve this myriad of issues through flexible andefficient industrial real estate solutions.
The Logistics & Transportation Solutions Group connects Colliersbrokers worldwide to the global transportation community. Whetherresearching new advances or issues, participating in industryorganizations, or taking the lead in trade conferences, our specialistsimmerse themselves in the business of the transportation industry.
Built upon the principles of specialization and innovation, coupled with a global reach and local knowledge, Colliers’ Logistics & Transportation Solutions Group delivers high-impact results through a unique combination of logistics and commercial real estate knowledge and expertise.
Updated March 2015
More
SIOR membersthan any o ther f i rm i n the U.S.
510professionalsin the U.S.
Ranked in the top
3in the U.S.for industrial volume -RCA
colliers industrial
6 A Colliers International publication
Updated March 2015
Current Snapshot:Big-Box Rental Rates
2015 was a great year to own big-box industrial real estate. For the purpose of this report, Colliers defines a big-box building as a 300,000-square-foot or larger industrial building that is primarily used for distribution with ceiling heights of 28’ clear or greater and being pre-cast or tilt-up concrete construction. Almost 95 million square feet of big-box space leased during the year. Net absorption totaled almost 56 million square feet. The occupancy rate of big-box space ended the year at 92.68%. Only 151 of the 1,961 big-box buildings were vacant in all of North America.
The top ten occupier leases in Q4 2015 totaled 10,620,000 square feet. The top ten sales showed $470 million dollars invested. Keep in mind that these statistics reflect only the activity in North America’s primary distribution markets. As such, these numbers are phenomenal!
The comparison of 2015’s numbers to 2011’s numbers demonstrate the big box market recovery:
> In 2011, 9 million square feet of big-box space was built. In 2015, 61 million square feet was delivered. > In 2011, speculative development totaled 623,000 square feet and in 2015, totaled 34.8 million square feet.> Cap rates dropped from 7.16% in 2011 to 5.99% in 2015. Cap rates will continue to drop into 1Q 2016.> The average effective net rent was $3.55 per square foot in 2011 versus $4.54 net per square foot in 2015, a 28% gain.
Investors have reacted to these robust big-box numbers by making big investments. Two trends revealed by the statistics are interesting. > Despite massive construction completions in 2015 totaling 60 million square feet, there remains 74 million square feet of construction underway for 2016 delivery.
> The vacancy rate hit its lowest number in Q2 2015 at 7.02%. Vacancy ended 2015 at 7.32%. Why the increase? Quarterly construction underway increased every quarter in 2015, as speculative big-box projects were completed during the year. This resulted in a slight rise in vacancy toward the end of the year.
What will happen in 2016? The simple answer is that no one knows. However, early activity reported by Colliers indicates that 2016 will be another strong year for occupier demand. We will monitor trends to see if occupier demand keeps up with the coming tsunami of completed spec buildings.
> What constitutes aBig-Box Building?• 300,000 SF or Larger Industrial Buildings• Primarily used for Distribution• Ceiling Heights of 28’ Clear or Greater• Pre-Cast or Tilt-Up Concrete Construction
Updated March 2015
AtlAntA, GAAvg. Rental Rate: $2.95Big-Box Vacancies: 26
Big-Box Vacancy Rate: 8.7%net Absorption: 637,832 SF
tOROntO, OnAvg. Rental Rate: $6.20Big-Box Vacancies: 11
Big-Box Vacancy Rate: 3.3%net Absorption: 1,217,966 SF
ChICAGO, IlAvg. Rental Rate: $3.80Big-Box Vacancies: 19
Big-Box Vacancy Rate: 8.4%net Absorption: 1,574,488 SF
Penn./new JeRSeyAvg. Rental Rate: $4.24Big-Box Vacancies: 17
Big-Box Vacancy Rate: 8.6%net Absorption: 430,931 SF
northern/Centralnew JeRSey
Avg. Rental Rate: $6.22Big-Box Vacancies: 17
Big-Box Vacancy Rate: 12.8%net Absorption: 664,914 SF
DAllAS, tXAvg. Rental Rate: $3.42Big-Box Vacancies: 50
Big-Box Vacancy Rate: 14.0%net Absorption: 2,814,081 SF
hOUStOn, tXAvg. Rental Rate: $4.56Big-Box Vacancies: 10
Big-Box Vacancy Rate: 14.5%net Absorption: 80,320 SF
GReAteR lOS AnGeleS, CAAvg. Rental Rate: $4.94Big-Box Vacancies: 30
Big-Box Vacancy Rate: 4.4%net Absorption: 5,096,250 SF
Colliers Locations
Featured Distribution Markets
Updated March 2015
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4 Q4 Q4
Q4
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8 A Colliers International publication
ATLA
NTA
Big-Box historical statistics: >300,000 sf
Big-Box market indicators:
overview
Big-Box lease transactions - Q4 2015
Market Report
atlanta, gaQ4 2015
Tenant Size (SF) Address City Lease TypeMedline 1,287,000 1500 Medline Place McDonough New LeaseExel 987,840 625 Shannon Way Union City New LeaseBest Buy 461,700 2 Broadmoor Boulevard Buford New Lease
net effective rent:
$2.95current Big-Box vacancies:300,000-499,999 sf 12500,000-749,999 sf 9750,000+ sf 5
Q4 2014 Q3 2015 Q4 2015# of Buildings 137 143 144total Inventory (SF) 75,930,452 80,101,656 80,419,176Under Construction 6,224,754 8,430,815 10,654,043Construction Deliveries 0 1,822,564 317,520
Q4 2014 Q3 2015 Q4 2015Vacancy Rate (%) 11.1% 9.1% 8.7%leasing Activity (%) 4,699,073 407,517 2,481,666net Absorption (SF) 2,311,031 721,687 627,832net effective Rent $2.87 $2.91 $2.95
Leasing activity totaled 2.5 million square feet during the fourth quarter of 2015, a 525% increase over last quarter’s tally of 400,000 square feet. The fourth quarter activity brought the total big-box leasing volume for 2015 to 6.99 million square feet. The largest big-box lease signed during the fourth quarter involved Medline leasing the 1,287,000 square foot facility at 1500 Medline Place in McDonough. The largest big-box sale completed during the fourth quarter involved Glen Una Investments purchasing the 1,054,500 square foot building located at 3312 North Berkeley Lake Road in Duluth for $31.7 million.
Capitalization rates for big-box buildings continue to compress, averaging 6.2% in 2015, a 50-basis-point decrease from 2014’s average cap rate of 6.7%. The average net effective taking rent for big-box spaces was
$2.95 per square foot net during the fourth quarter of 2015, representing an 2.7% increase when compared to the $2.87 per square foot net rate recorded a year ago. This rate has been on the increase for the five years after bottoming at $2.50 per square foot net in 2011, representing an 18% increase.
Big-box construction activity continues to expand. Currently, 10.7 million square feet of new big-box construction is underway in the Atlanta market. 4.5 million square feet of new big-box development was completed during 2015. 71.1%, or about 3.2 million square feet of the new construction completions were built on a speculative basis, while an additional 1.3 million square feet were build-to-suit projects.
Cap Rate net effective Rent
2012 7.1% $2.63
2013 7.3% $2.75
2014 6.7% $2.87
2015 6.2% $2.950
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
2012 2013 2014 2015
Spec Construction Deliveries (SF)BTS Construction Deliveries (SF)
92016 Colliers International Big-Box Market Report
CHICAGO
Market Report
chicago, ilQ4 2015
net effective rent:
$3.80current Big-Box vacancies:300,000-499,999 sf 14500,000-749,999 sf 4750,000+ sf 1
Big-Box historical statistics: >300,000 sf
Big-Box market indicators:
overview
Big-Box lease transactions - Q4 2015
Tenant Size (SF) Address City Lease TypeMars Candy 1,388,000 4005 Cedar Creek Drive Elwood New Lease3M 978,120 Park 88 DeKalb New LeaseOzburn-Hessey Logistics 672,080 790 Taylor Road Romeoville New Lease
Q4 2014 Q3 2015 Q4 2015# of Buildings 256 271 274total Inventory (SF) 143,867,522 151,909,405 153,300,532Under Construction 8,291,650 7,039,723 9,720,084Construction Deliveries 2,941,487 2,466,448 1,391,127
Leasing activity totaled 3.9 million square feet during the fourth quarter of 2015, a 62.5% increase over last quarter’s tally of 2.4 million square feet. The fourth quarter activity brought the total big-box leasing volume for 2015 to 13.72 million square feet. The largest big-box lease signed during the fourth quarter involved Mars Candy signing a 1,388,000 square foot built-to-suit lease to be constructed at 4005 Cedar Creek Drive in Elwood. The largest big-box sale completed during the fourth quarter involved American Realty Advisors purchasing the 604,565 square foot building located at 1200 Orchard Gateway in Aurora for $42.2 million.
Capitalization rates for big-box buildings continue to compress, averaging 5.0% in 2015, a 60-basis-point decrease from 2014’s average cap rate of 5.6%. The average net effective taking rent for big-box spaces was
$3.80 per square foot net during the fourth quarter of 2015, representing an 8.2% increase when compared to the $3.51 per square foot net rate recorded a year ago. Net lease rates across the Chicago metro market have been on the increase for the last 2 years after bottoming at $3.27 per square foot net in 2013, representing a 16.2% increase.
Big-box construction activity continues to expand. Currently, 9.2 million square feet of new big-box construction is underway in the Chicago market. 9.4 million square feet of new big-box development was completed during 2015. 36.1%, or about 3.4 million square feet of the new construction completions were built on a speculative basis, while an additional 6.0 million square feet were build-to-suit projects.
Q4 2014 Q3 2015 Q4 2015Vacancy Rate (%) 10.3% 8.7% 8.4%leasing Activity (%) 1,626,186 2,393,159 3,485,075net Absorption (SF) 1,839,274 3,207,458 1,574,488net effective Rent $3.51 $4.33 $3.80
Cap Rate net effective Rent
2012 6.3% $3.76
2013 6.1% $3.27
2014 5.6% $3.51
2015 5.0% $3.80
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
2012 2013 2014 2015
Spec Construction Deliveries (SF)
BTS Construction Deliveries (SF)
10 A Colliers International publication
DALL
AS
Market Report
dallas, txQ4 2015
net effective rent:
$3.42current Big-Box vacancies:300,000-499,999 sf 32500,000-749,999 sf 13750,000+ sf 5
Big-Box historical statistics: >300,000 sf
Big-Box market indicators:
overview
Big-Box lease transactions - Q4 2015
Tenant Size (SF) Address City Lease TypeMission Foods 768,587 2401 W Pioneer Parkway Arlington New LeaseNiagra Water 630,000 Grady Niblo Road Dallas New LeaseProctor and Gamble 504,125 6601 Oak Grove Road Fort Worth Renewal
Q4 2014 Q3 2015 Q4 2015# of Buildings 220 234 237total Inventory (SF) 116,052,377 123,790,390 125,308,926Under Construction 9,256,549 4,584,602 9,977,581Construction Deliveries 7,153,722 1,856,140 1,518,536
Q4 2014 Q3 2015 Q4 2015Vacancy Rate (%) 14.2% 15.2% 14.0%leasing Activity (%) 2,970,665 4,406,326 4,017,509net Absorption (SF) 181,440 750,333 2,814,081net effective Rent $3.42 $3.45 $3.42
Leasing activity totaled 4.0 million square feet during the fourth quarter of 2015, a 9% decrease compared to last quarter’s tally of 4.4 million square feet. The fourth quarter activity brought the total big-box leasing volume for 2015 to 17.8 million square feet. The largest big-box lease signed during the fourth quarter involved Mission Foods leasing the 768,587 square foot facility at 2401 West Pioneer Parkway in Arlington. The largest big-box sale completed during the fourth quarter involved Stone Lake Capital Partners purchasing the 529,103 SF building located at 3613-3717 Pipestone Road in Dallas for $21.7 million.
Capitalization rates for big-box buildings continue to compress, averaging 6.1% in 2015, a 20-basis-point decrease from 2014’s average cap rate of 6.3%. The
average net effective taking rent for big-box spaces was $3.42 per square foot net during the fourth quarter of 2015, representing an 0% change when compared to the $3.42 per square foot net rate recorded a year ago. This rate has been on the increase for the five years after bottoming at $3.21 per square foot net in 2011, representing a 6.5% increase.
Big-box construction activity continues to expand. Currently, 9.8 million square feet of new big-box construction is underway in the Dallas market. 9.3 million square feet of new big-box development was completed during 2015. 66.6%, or about 6.2 million square feet of the new construction completions were built on a speculative basis, while an additional 3.1 million square feet were build-to-suit projects.
Cap Rate net effective Rent
2012 7.0% $3.21
2013 6.8% $3.22
2014 6.3% $3.42
2015 6.1% $3.420
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
2012 2013 2014 2015
Spec Construction Deliveries (SF)BTS Construction Deliveries (SF)
112016 Colliers International Big-Box Market Report
HO
USTON
Market Report
houston, txQ4 2015
net effective rent:
$4.56current Big-Box vacancies:300,000-499,999 sf 8500,000-749,999 sf 2750,000+ sf 0
Big-Box historical statistics: >300,000 sf
Big-Box market indicators:
overview
Big-Box lease transactions - Q4 2015
Tenant Size (SF) Address City Lease TypeExel 905,000 City Park East Houston RenewalMichelin North America, Inc. 663,821 8800 Citypark Loop Houston RenewalDunavant 565,760 Bay Area Business Park La Porte New Lease
Q4 2014 Q3 2015 Q4 2015# of Buildings 54 62 64total Inventory (SF) 26,325,641 29,206,083 29,912,313Under Construction 4,444,930 6,104,119 6,230,289Construction Deliveries 351,672 736,255 706,230
Leasing activity totaled 1.3 million square feet during the fourth quarter of 2015, a 165% increase compared to last quarter’s tally of 488,752 square feet. The fourth quarter activity brought the total big-box leasing volume for 2015 to 4.38 million square feet. The largest big-box lease signed during the fourth quarter involved Exel renewing the 905,000 square feet facility at City Park East in Houston. The largest big-box sale completed during the fourth quarter involved Liberty Property Trust purchasing the 921,196 square foot building located on South 16th Street in La Porte for $93 million (including 130 acres).
Capitalization rates for big-box buildings continue to compress, averaging 7.8% in 2015, a 30-basis-point increase from 2014’s average cap rate of 7.5%. The average net effective taking rent for big-box spaces was
$4.56 per square foot net during the fourth quarter of 2015, representing an 2.7% increase when compared to the $4.44 per square foot net rate recorded a year ago. This rate has been on the increase for the 3 years after bottoming at $4.20 per square foot net in 2012, representing an 8.5% increase.
Big-box construction activity continues to expand. Currently, 6.2 million square feet of new big-box construction is underway in the Houston market. 1.8 million square feet of new big-box development was completed during 2015. 94.4%, or about 1.7 million square feet of the new construction completions were built on a speculative basis, while an additional 357,000 square feet were build-to-suit projects.
Q4 2014 Q3 2015 Q4 2015Vacancy Rate (%) 10.8% 12.7% 14.5%leasing Activity (%) 695,007 488,752 1,294,242net Absorption (SF) 121,646 385,608 80,320net effective Rent $4.31 $4.59 $4.59
Cap Rate net effective Rent
2012 7.8% $4.20
2013 7.7% $4.32
2014 7.5% $4.44
2015 7.8% $4.560
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
2012 2013 2014 2015
Spec Construction Deliveries (SF)
BTS Construction Deliveries (SF)
12 A Colliers International publication
GREA
TER
LOS
ANGE
LES
Market Report
greaterlos angeles, caQ4 2015
net effective rent:
$4.94current Big-Box vacancies:300,000-499,999 sf 17500,000-749,999 sf 7750,000+ sf 6
Big-Box historical statistics: >300,000 sf
Big-Box market indicators:
overview
Big-Box lease transactions - Q4 2015
Tenant Size (SF) Address City Lease TypeGeneral Mills 1,547,342 SF 4120 Indian Perris New LeaseBlack & Decker 970,747 SF 15750 Jurupa Fontana New LeaseWayfair, LLC 783,400 AD 3500 Indian Perris New Lease
Q4 2014 Q3 2015 Q4 2015# of Buildings 662 701 711total Inventory (SF) 365,404,362 379,441,362 385,187,562Under Construction 15,032,000 20,957,000 16,227,432Construction Deliveries 3,200,000 4,858,000 5,746,200
Q4 2014 Q3 2015 Q4 2015Vacancy Rate (%) 4.5% 4.3% 4.4%leasing Activity (%) 11,560,000 8,192,000 8,623,000net Absorption (SF) 4,212,800 4,011,000 5,096,250net effective Rent $4.54 $5.10 $4.94
Leasing activity totaled 8.6 million square feet during the fourth quarter of 2015, a 4.8% increase over last quarter’s tally of 8.2 million square feet. The fourth quarter activity brought the total big-box leasing volume for 2015 to 33.0 million square feet. The largest big-box lease signed during the fourth quarter involved General Mills leasing a 1.1 million square foot facility at 4120 Indian Street in Perris. General Mills signed the lease and the developer is completing the extra 400,000 square feet of the building. The largest big-box sale completed during the fourth quarter involved Costco Wholesale purchasing the 525,700 square foot building located at 11280 Riverside Drive in Jurupa Valley for $62.6 million. Although the building is currently occupied by manufacturer Quik Set, Costco plans to eventually use the building as a regional distribution center.
Capitalization rates for big-box buildings continue to
compress, averaging 4.5% in 2015, a 100-basis-point decrease from 2014’s average cap rate of 5.5%. The average net effective taking rent for big-box spaces was $4.94 per square foot net during the fourth quarter of 2015, representing an 8.8% increase when compared to the $4.54 per square foot net rate recorded a year ago. This rate has been on the increase for the four years after bottoming at $3.73 per square foot net in 2011, representing a 32.4% increase.
Big-box construction activity continues to expand. Currently, 16.2 million square feet of new big-box construction is underway in the Greater Los Angeles market. 19.8 million square feet of new big-box development was completed during 2015. 45%, or about 9.1 million square feet of the new construction completions were built on a speculative basis, while an additional 10.7 million square feet were build-to-suit projects.
Cap Rate net effective Rent
2012 5.7% $4.27
2013 6.0% $4.48
2014 5.5% $4.54
2015 4.5% $4.940
2,000,0004,000,0006,000,0008,000,000
10,000,00012,000,000
2012 2013 2014 2015
Spec Construction Deliveries (SF)BTS Construction Deliveries (SF)
132016 Colliers International Big-Box Market Report
PA & NJ
Market Report
pennsylvania & new Jersey Q4 2015
net effective rent:
$4.24current Big-Box vacancies: 300,000-499,999 sf 9500,000-749,999 sf 5750,000+ sf 3
Big-Box historical statistics: >300,000 sf
Big-Box market indicators:
overview
Big-Box lease transactions - Q4 2015
Tenant Size (SF) Address City Lease TypeStitchFix 483,990 4770 Hanoverville Road Bethlehem, PA New LeaseFedEx 305,733 600 River Road King of Prussia, PA New LeaseXPO Logistics 283,145 1520 Van Buren Road Easton, PA New Lease
Q4 2014 Q3 2015 Q4 2015# of Buildings 116 131 137total Inventory (SF) 81,018,384 89,738,396 93,129,886Under Construction 7,092,265 11,302,195 13,306,229Construction Deliveries 400,060 2,425,434 3,391,490
Leasing activity totaled 1.1 million square feet during the fourth quarter of 2015, a 38.9% decrease over last quarter’s tally of 1.8 million square feet. The fourth quarter activity brought the total big-box leasing volume for 2015 to 7.13 million square feet. The largest big-box lease signed during the fourth quarter involved e-commerce retailer StitchFix leasing newly completed 483,990 square feet facility at 4770 Hanoverville Road in Bethlehem, PA. The largest big-box sale completed during the fourth quarter involved American Realty Advisors purchasing the 700,000 square foot building located at 2 Ames Drive in Carlisle, PA for $62.5 million.
Capitalization rates for big-box buildings continue to compress, averaging 5.6% in 2015, a 30-basis-point decrease from 2014’s average cap rate of 5.9%. The average net effective taking rent for big-box spaces was
$4.24 per square foot net during the fourth quarter of 2015, representing an 2.1% increase when compared to the $4.15 per square foot net rate recorded a year ago. This rate has been on the increase for the five years after bottoming at $4.01 per square foot net in 2011, representing a 5.7% increase.
Big-box construction activity continues to expand. Currently, 13.3 million square feet of new big-box construction is underway in the Eastern PA/Southern NJ market. 12.1 million square feet of new big-box development was completed during 2015. 60.7%, or about 7.35 million square feet of the new construction completions were built on a speculative basis, while an additional 4.75 million square feet were build-to-suit projects.
Q4 2014 Q3 2015 Q4 2015Vacancy Rate (%) 3.4% 5.7% 8.6%leasing Activity (%) 6,026,314 1,803,258 1,131,507net Absorption (SF) 1,515,745 1,529,173 430,931
Cap Rate net effective Rent
2012 7.6% $4.04
2013 6.7% $4.082014 5.9% $4.152015 5.6% $4.24
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
2012 2013 2014 2015
Spec Construction Deliveries (SF)BTS Construction Deliveries (SF)
14 A Colliers International publication
NY &
NJ
Market Report
northern/central
new JerseyQ4 2015
current Big-Box vacancies:300,000-499,999 sf 11500,000-749,999 sf 5750,000+ sf 1
net effective rent:
$6.22
Big-Box historical statistics: >300,000 sf
Big-Box market indicators:
overview
Big-Box lease transactions - Q4 2015
Tenant Size (SF) Address City Lease TypeHome Depot 812,739 66 Station Road Cranbury RenewalList Logistics 571,000 75 Mill Road Edison New LeaseFedway 539,170 10 North Avenue Elizabeth New Lease
Q4 2014 Q3 2015 Q4 2015# of Buildings 128 131 131total Inventory (SF) 70,349,509 71,812,857 71,812,857Under Construction 2,002,348 2,769,150 3,841,770Construction Deliveries 1,672,446 1,463,348 0
Q4 2014 Q3 2015 Q4 2015Vacancy Rate (%) 13.3% 13.7% 12.8%leasing Activity (%) 1,292,422 1,144,503 1,529,488net Absorption (SF) 1,399,983 39,769 664,914net effective Rent $4.46 $4.44 $4.36
Leasing activity totaled 1.5 million square feet during the fourth quarter of 2015, a 36.3% increase over last quarter’s tally of 1.1 million square feet. The fourth quarter activity brought the total big-box leasing volume for 2015 to 6.21 million square feet. The largest big-box lease signed during the fourth quarter involved Home Depot’s renewal of 812,739 square feet at 66 Station Road in Cranbury.
Capitalization rates for big-box buildings continue to compress, averaging 6.2% in 2015, a 100-basis-point decrease from 2014’s average cap rate of 7.2%. The average net effective taking rent for big-box spaces was $6.22 per square foot net during the fourth quarter of 2015, representing an 0.5% increase when compared to the $6.19 per square foot net rate recorded a year ago.
This rate has been on the increase for the two years after bottoming at $4.78 per square foot net in 2013 representing a 30.1% increase.
Big-box construction activity continues to expand. Currently, 3.8 million square feet of new big-box construction is underway in the New Jersey market. 1.4 million square feet of new big-box development was completed during 2015. 100% of the new construction completions were built on a speculative basis.
Cap Rate net effective Rent
2012 7.7% $5.46
2013 7.1% $4.782014 7.2% $6.192015 6.2% $6.22
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
2012 2013 2014 2015
Spec Construction Deliveries (SF)BTS Construction Deliveries (SF)
152016 Colliers International Big-Box Market Report
TORO
NTO
Market Report
toronto, on4Q 2015
net effective rent:
$6.20current Big-Box vacancies: 300,000-499,999 sf 7500,000-749,999 sf 2750,000+ sf 2
Big-Box historical statistics: >300,000 sf
Big-Box market indicators:
overview
Big-Box lease transactions - Q4 2015
Tenant Size (SF) Address City Lease TypeAmazon 868,122 8050 Heritage Road Brampton New LeaseSherway Logistics 330,000 6525 Northwest Drive Mississauga New LeaseContinental Tires 314,000 12333 Airport Road Caledon New Lease
Q4 2014 Q3 2015 Q4 2015# of Buildings 283 285 287total Inventory (SF) 152,148,447 153,397,677 154,038,541Under Construction 4,305,232 4,883,480 4,553,616Construction Deliveries 406,485 0 640,864
Leasing activity totaled 1.5 million square feet during the fourth quarter of 2015, a 296% increase over last quarter’s tally of 378,427 square feet. The fourth quarter activity brought the total big-box leasing volume for 2015 to 5.74 million square feet. The largest big-box lease signed during the fourth quarter involved Amazon leasing the 868,122 square foot facility at 8050 Heritage Road in Brampton. The largest big-box sale completed during the fourth quarter involved Royal Laser Manufacturing Inc. purchasing the 351,368 square foot building located at 75 Doney Crescent in Vaughan for $22.5 million.
Capitalization rates for big-box buildings continue to compress, averaging 5.5% in 2015, a 100-basis-point decrease from 2014’s average cap rate of 6.5%. The average net effective taking rent for big-box spaces was
$6.20 per square foot net during the fourth quarter of 2015, representing an 2.8% increase when compared to the $6.03 per square foot net rate recorded a year ago. This rate has been on the increase for the five years after bottoming at $4.59 per square foot net in 2011, representing a 35.0% increase.
Big-box construction activity continues to expand. Currently, 4.5 million square feet of new big-box construction is underway in the Toronto market. 1.9 million square feet of new big-box development was completed during 2015. 84.2%, or about 1.6 million square feet of the new construction completions were built on a speculative basis, while an additional 311,000 square feet were build-to-suit projects.
Q4 2014 Q3 2015 Q4 2015Vacancy Rate (%) 2.1% 3.7% 3.3%leasing Activity (%) 0 378,427 1,512,122net Absorption (SF) 1,384,068 -1,380,579 1,217,966net effective Rent $5.60 $6.50 $6.13
Cap Rate net effective Rent
2012 7.1% $5.60
2013 6.4% $6.192014 6.5% $6.032015 5.5% $6.20
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
2012 2013 2014 2015
Spec Construction Deliveries (SF)BTS Construction Deliveries (SF)
16 A Colliers International publication
Copyright © 2016 Colliers International.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.
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