© 2011 by Strategic Business Insights. All rights reserved.

Explorer:Understanding Technology

Commercialization—Opportunities and

Disruptions

October 2011

Nick Evans Ph.D.

Vice President

Director of Explorer

nevans@sbi-i.com

www.strategicbusinessinsights.com

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SBI: Opportunities in Technology

Commercialization

Clients use Strategic Business Insights’ expertise and services

to maximize opportunities resulting from technology

commercialization. We help our clients to:

• understand the implications of uncertainty and change

• recognize a technology that has the potential to be disruptive

• make decisions to determine whether an emerging

technology is an opportunity or a threat to their

organizations

• exploit the technology strategically

Strategic Business Insights is the former Business Intelligence division of SRI International, previously known

as the Stanford Research Institute.

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SBI and WKO/Advantage Austria:

Explorer

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Strategic Business Insights’ Explorer

Service

Understanding the drivers and barriers, and the

implications of technology commercialization

Identification and evaluation of opportunities and

threats from a changing technology landscape.

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Accessing Explorer

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Advanced Displays

Bioelectronics

Biomachines

Biomimetics

Carbon Nanotubes

Cleanup Bacteria

Cloning

Combinatorial Designed Materials

DNA Bar Codes

Free-Space Optics

Gene Therapy

GM Foods/Organisms

Grid Computing

High-Temperature Superconductors

Holographic Storage

Human-Machine Interfaces

Internet II

Ion Propulsion

Lab-on-a-Chip/Microreactors

Microactuators

Microbatteries

Microfuel Cells

Microturbines

Atomic and molecular manipulation*

Diamond thin films*

High-temperature superconductors*

Neural networks*

Molecular electronics*

Optical processing*

Antiviral technology

Catalytic antibodies

Cold fusion

Liquid-crystal polymers*

Desktop manufacturing*

Vacuum microelectronics*

Virtual environments*

DNA technologies*

Advanced Silicon Microelectronics/ULSI

Biocatalysis

Biomaterials

Biopolymers

Biosensors

Connected Cars

Connected Homes

Engineering Polymers

Flat-Panel Displays

Fuel Cells

Genomics

Knowledge-Based Systems

Knowledge-Management Tools

Membrane Separation

MEMS/Micromachining

Mobile Communications

Nanobiotechnology

Technologies: Opportunity or Threat?

How? To Who? When?

Affective Computing

Biofuels and Bio-Based Chemicals

Biomedical Imaging

Clean Coal

Energy Storage Materials

Green Buildings

Healthspan and Lifespan Extension

Human Behavioral Modeling

Internet of Things

Mixed Reality

Nanoelectronics

Nanomaterials

Novel Ceramic/Metallic Materials

Optoelectronics/Photonics

Organic Electronics

Pervasive Computing

Photovoltaics

Polymer-Matrix Composites

Portable Electronic Devices

Portable Power

Renewable Energy technologies

RFID Technologies

Robotics

Smart Materials

Solid-State Microsensors

User Interfaces

Virtual Worlds

Miniaturization

Molecular Electronics

Nanomachining

Nanorobots

Nonspeech Recognition

Perpetual Energy (Space Electricity)

Personal Factory

Photonic Bandgap Materials

Quantum Computers

Quantum Energy

Recycling Technologies

Replication

Self-Clean Materials

Self-Repair Materials

Spintronics

Systems Biology

Teleportation

Thermal Piles

Tissue Regeneration

Underwater/Space Mining

Virtual Reality

Weather Control/Climate Modeling

Biomimetic materials*

Composite electronic materials*

Vehicle navigation and route

guidance**

Micromachining**

Buckminsterfullerenes*

Carbohydrate engineering*

Artificial life

Data visualization

Next-generation lasers

Telepresence*

Chaos theory

Human gene therapy*

Molecular Electronics

Molecular Manufacturing

Neurotechnology

Personal Robotics

Plug-in Electric Vehicles

Printed Electronics

Quantum Computing

Synthetic Biology

Systems Biology

Thin-film Solar Cells

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Identifying and Monitoring Technologies

• Thousands of technologies exist

• Any one technology could be an opportunity or a

threat to any specific organization

• Under certain conditions some technologies have the

power to be disruptive across an industry or even

globally.

The future is uncertain. How do you identify and then

evaluate the impact of emerging technologies?

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Selection and Prioritization of

Technologies of Interest

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Generate ideas

Apply filters

Rank: Select the most appropriate

to meet the prioritization criteria

Set Objectives (set the scope and define

necessary filters).

Review with all interested parties.

Form clusters

Expand descriptions

Create required

Technology Profiles

Step 4:

Step 2:

Step 3:

Step 1:

Step 6:

Step 7:

Step 5: Refine filters if not sufficient

Selection of technologies for Explorer

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Explorer’s Priorities: Commercial

Evaluation of 32 Technology Areas

Artificial Intelligence

Biocatalysis

Biomaterials

Biopolymers

Biosensors

Collaboration Tools

Connected Cars

Connected Homes

Engineering Polymers

Flat-Panel Displays

Fuel Cells

Membrane Separation

MEMS/Micromachining

Mobile Communications

Nanobiotechnology

Nanoelectronics

Nanomaterials

Novel Ceramic/Metallic Materials

Optoelectronics/Photonics

Organic Electronics

Pervasive Computing

Photovoltaics

Polymer-Matrix Composites

Portable Electronic Devices

Portable Power

Renewable Energy Technologies

RFID Technologies

Robotics

Smart Materials

Solid-State Microsensors

User Interfaces

Virtual Worlds

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Understanding the Sources of

Uncertainty

Business World

• Strategy

• Competition

• Value Chain/Web

• Globalization

• Partnerships/Alliances

A Turbulent

Marketplace

Technology• Invention &

Innovation

• Diffusion

• Convergence

Society & Culture• Government

• Consumer Behavior

• Public Opinion

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Explorer: Tap into SBI’s Technology

Commercialization Expertise

Clients have access to:

• Technology Maps—The focus of our current thinking

• Viewpoints—Monthly interpretations of events of

significance

• Consultation—Clarifications and opinions from our analysts

Consultation

Technology Maps

Viewpoint

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We integrate our current evaluations into a commercially focused

Technology Map—which we review on an ongoing basis.

Technology Maps:

Structure

Technology Maps have five key sections reflecting elements of

change that we monitor, question, and evaluate:

• Technology evolution

• Commercial development parameters—drivers of and

barriers to the technology’s commercialization

• Issues and uncertainties

• Implications of commercialization

• Resultant opportunities—applications and value chains

Consultation

Technology Maps

Viewpoints

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Technology Map Charts

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Explorer Technology Maps:

Charts of Commercial Exploration

Commercial Development Parameters

Issues and Uncertainties

ImplicationsBuilding Blocks of the

Technology

Opportunities: Applications

Opportunities: Business Environment

Players

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1: Understand the Technology

Pervasive Computing Consultation

Technology Maps

Viewpoints

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2: Understand the Commercial

Development Parameters

Pervasive Computing Consultation

Technology Maps

Viewpoints

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High

Medium

Low

Impact

HighMediumLow

Uncertainty

3: Understand the Issues and

Uncertainties

Pervasive Computing

Wireless

Networks

Smart Spaces

Privacy Human-

Computer

Interfaces

Security

Software

Productivity

Intelligent

Agents

Standards and

Interoperability

Context

Awareness

Business

Models

AREAS TO MONITOR

Power Sources

Consultation

Technology Maps

Viewpoints

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4: Understand the Implications of

Commercialization

Pervasive Computing Consultation

Technology Maps

Viewpoints

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5: Focus On The Applications That Can

Be Opportunities

Energy-Saving

Systems

Self-RepairVibration

Control

Haptic

Orthopedics and

Prosthetics

Self-Powered

Monitoring Devices

Smart and

Adaptive

Structures

Smart Structures

Aerospace and

Defense

Automotive

Medical

Engine, Drive-Train and

Suspension Components

Smart Mirrors Self-Repairing Coatings

Vibration and

Noise Control

NDTEVibration Control

Actuators

Structural Monitoring

Minimally

Invasive

Surgery

Drug Delivery

Medical Analysis

Valves

and SealsEarthquake Dampers Noise Control

Motors and Actuators

Light and

Heat Control

Fasteners

Industrial, Power

and Construction

Industry Current Applications

Emerging Applications

Within 5 Years Within 10 Years

Smart Materials Consultation

Technology Maps

Viewpoints

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Opportunities Have Value Chains

Title Title Title

Enabling Components Applications

Defense Systems

• BAE Systems

• Northrop Grumman

• Raytheon

• United Technologies

• EADS NV

Key R&D and Funding

• QinetiQ

• DARPA

• U.S. Navy

• U.S. Army

• SRI International

• MIT

• NASA

• ORNL

Aircraft

• Boeing

• Airbus

• Bombardier

• Dassault

• Saab AB

• Hindustan Aerospace

• Lockheed Martin

• General Dynamics

• Textron

• Thales

Aerospace Components

• Rolls-Royce

• Smiths Industries

• General Electric

• Siemens AG

• Textron

Magnetostrictives

• Newlands Scientific

• Etrema Products

Shape-Memory Alloys

• Adaptamat

• Memory Metalle

• NDC

• Memry Corp.

• Dynalloy, Inc.

• Heraeus Materials

Smart Polymers

• Cornerstone

• Bayer MaterialScience

Piezoelectrics

• Many Suppliers

Research and

Development

Smart Materials

�and

Components

Parts and

Systems

Aircraft,

Vehicles,

and Weapons

VALUE CHAIN FOR SMART MATERIALS IN AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE APPLICATIONS

Smart Materials Consultation

Technology Maps

Viewpoints

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Realism Comes From Asking the Right

Questions

Commercial Development Parameters

Issues and Uncertainties

ImplicationsBuilding Blocks of the

Technology

Opportunities: Applications

Opportunities: Business Environment

Players

Knowledge Supposition Implications Opportunities

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Explorer Service:

Viewpoints

Monthly Viewpoints:

• Alert clients to events that our technology analysts believe will be significant regarding developments and the commercialization of the technology in specific applications

• Build on or modify the arguments in the Technology Map before its next update

• Provide a December/January overview of progress in the past year and events to look for in the coming year.

Consultation

Technology Maps

Viewpoints

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Viewpoints ListConsultation

Technology Maps

Viewpoints

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Connected Cars ViewpointsConsultation

Technology Maps

Viewpoints

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How Do Clients Use Explorer?

Our clients get many valuable insights from Explorer,

enhancing their own internal processes to understand

the implications of technology developments and

commercialization in this changing world.

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How Can You Use Explorer?

Explorer will:

• Help you to identify potential technology-enabled

opportunities to monitor

• Bring you up the learning curve fast in technology areas

and applications new to you

• Challenge or support your current thinking

• Reduce the risk of surprise

• Extend your peripheral vision.

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Examples of How Some Clients Use

Explorer

• Through Advantage Austria, WKO gives access to Explorer

to Austria’s SMEs to stimulate them to think outside of their

comfort zones when seeking new opportunities in

technology commercialization.

• A WDC government intelligence agency uses Explorer’s

ongoing evaluations of the timing and consequences of

technology commercialization to test its internal evaluations

of the disruptive potential of commercializing technologies

in new applications.

• A major European science park uses Explorer to help with

its evaluation of technology opportunities to assist its start-

ups in their technology transfer efforts.

• A U.S. chemicals producer uses Explorer to identify

changing demands in application areas that could provide

opportunities for its range of existing chemicals and those in

development.