2016 05 smith sedar 41 review workshop report...the monte carlo bootstrap (mcb) evaluations of...

ExternalIndependentPeerReviewofthe

SEDAR41SouthAtlanticRedSnapperandGrayTriggerfishAssessmentReviewWorkshop

Preparedby

StephenJ.Smith

383PortlandHillsDriveDartmouth,NovaScotia

CanadaB2W6R4

for

TheCenterforIndependentExperts

May2016

Executivesummary

TheSoutheastData,Assessment,andReview(SEDAR)41ReviewPanelmetfrom15to18March2016,inCharleston,SCtoreviewthedataandassessmentsforSouthAtlanticredsnapperandgraytriggerfish.ThepanelconsistedofthreeSouthAtlanticFisheriesManagementCouncil(SAFMCSSC)membersasreviewers,oneofwhomchairedthemeeting,andthreeCenterforIndependentExperts(CIE)reviewers.Redsnapperwaslastassessedin2010(SEDAR24,2010)andgraytriggerfishwasoriginallytobeassessedatSEDAR32in2013,butthediscoveryofageingerrorsdelayedtheassessmentuntilthismeeting.TheprimaryassessmentmodelusedwastheBeaufortAssessmentModel(BAM),asoftwarepackagethatimplementsastatisticalcatch-at-ageframework.Theformulationisanage-structuredpopulationmodelthatisfitusingstandardstatisticalmethodstodataavailablefromsurveysandcommercialandrecreationalfishingfleets,suchaslandings,discards,indicesofabundance,agecompositions,andlengthcompositions.Lateinthemeeting,correctionshadtobemadetotheagecompositionsfortheChevrontrapsurveyestimates,whichdelayedhavingthecompleteresultsforthebasecasemodelforredsnapperavailabletothereviewpaneluntilafterthemeeting.Afollow-upwebinaron8April2016wasnecessarytocontinuediscussionofprojectionsandfinalizetheSEDAR41ReviewWorkshopprocess.Theresultsoftheage-basedmodelindicatedthattheredsnapperstockwasoverfishedandoverfishingwasoccurring.Theresultsofthestockassessmentwerejudgedtobethebestscientificinformationavailable;however,theincreasingrelianceondiscarddatatomonitortheamountandsizecompositionofremovalswillmakeprojectionshighlyuncertain.TheBAMwasalsousedfortheSouthAtlanticgraytriggerfishstockwithcommercialandrecreationallandings,discards,andlengthandagecompositions.TheChevrontrap/videosurveywastheonlyabundanceindexusedinthemodel.TheestimatesoflowabundanceatthebeginningofthetimeseriesduetothehighweightgiventotheChevrontrap/Videosurvey,andthepoorfittoagecompositionsoftheheadboatfleetandsurveyindex,especiallyafterthecorrectionofChevrontrapagecompositions,ledtheReviewPaneltorecommendthatfurthermodelingandreviewwasneededbeforeabasecasecouldbeacceptedformanagingthisfishery.TheReviewPaneldidnotaccepttheproposedbasecasemodelasbeingappropriatefordeterminingstockstatus.BackgroundThereviewworkshopofthe41stSoutheastData,Assessment,andReview(SEDAR)processwasconvenedinCharleston,SCfromMarch15to18,2016.ThepurposeoftheworkshopwastoreviewstockassessmentsforSouthAtlanticredsnapperandgraytriggerfish.ThestocksassessedthroughSEDAR41arewithinthejurisdictionoftheSouthAtlanticFisheriesManagementCouncil(SAFMC)andthestatesofFlorida,Georgia,SouthCarolina,andNorthCarolina.Redsnapperwaslastassessedin2010(SEDAR24,2010)andgraytriggerfishwasoriginallytobeassessedatSEDAR32in2013,butthediscoveryofageingerrorsdelayedtheassessmentuntilthismeeting.DescriptionoftheIndividualReviewer’sRoleintheReviewActivitiesBackgroundinformation,meetingarrangementsandothermaterialweremadeavailabletothereviewerseitherviaemailorthroughanftpsitestartingonMarch2,2016.Ireviewedthetwomainassessmentworkshopdocumentsaccessingthebackgroundinformationasnecessarytogetmoredetailonthedatausedoranalysisthatwascarriedout.OnMarch11,Iparticipatedinaone-hourconference

call/webinarwithavailablereviewersandassessmentleadshostedbyJuliaByrd(SAFMC)andLuizBarbieri(ReviewPanelchair)togooverarrangements,agenda,etc.,andalsotogooveranyquestionsorclarificationsconcerningtheassessmentdocuments.ThereviewmeetingwasheldMarch15to18attheCrownePlazaCharlestonAirportConventionCenterinCharleston,SC.Thefirstdayofthemeetingwasdevotedtothepresentationofthematerialonredsnapperandgraytriggerfish.ThetwoassessmentteamsreturnedonWednesdaywithpresentationsdealingwiththeirresponsestoissuesandquestionsthatthepanelhadbroughtupduringtheoriginalpresentations.AproblemwiththedatausedtogeneratetheagecompositionsfortheChevrontrapsurveyestimateswasreportedonThursdaymorning,andbothassessmentteamsspentthedayre-runningtheirbasemodelfitsandreportingonimpactoftheagedatacorrectionontheirresults.LateonThursday,thepanelconcludedthattheagedatacorrectioninadditiontootherissuesraisedforthegraytriggerfishassessmentindicatedthatthecurrentassessmentmodelcouldnotbeusedformanagingthefisheryandtheassessmentpanelneededtoevaluatethemodelincontextofcommentsfromthereviewpanel.Fridaymorningwasspentclarifyingwhatfurthermaterialwasrequiredfromtheredsnapperteamandthetimelineforfinalizingthereviewpanelreport.IndustryrepresentativesattendedallofthesessionsandmanypresentedcommentsduringthePubliccommentsessionheldattheendofeachday.TheMonteCarloBootstrap(MCB)evaluationsofuncertaintyandprojectionsfortheredsnappernewbasecasewerenotavailabletothepanelattheendofthemeeting,butweredistributedtothepanelonMarch24.TheresultswerepresentedtoavailablemembersofthepanelandotherparticipantsoftheoriginalmeetingduringawebinaronApril8.Attheendofthiswebinar,thesubmissiondateforthepanelreportwasrescheduledtoApril15.ThischangeindateinturnledtoreschedulingofthedateforsubmissionofindividualreviewstoCIEtoApril22.Thepanelreviewchairassignedmetodeveloptextforthereviewreportsectionsontheassessmentfindingstermofreference(TOR3),aswellascontributetoTOR4and7,basedonmynotesandthosecontributedbyotherpanelists.TheotherCIEandSAFMCSSCpanelistsweregivensimilarassignments.Thechairwasresponsibleforthecompilingallofthetextintothedraftreviewreport.AllofthepanelistscontributedtoeditingthecompletedraftreportwhichwassubmittedonApril15.SummaryofFindingsforeachToR

1. Evaluatethedatausedintheassessment,includingdiscussionofthestrengthsandweaknessesofdatasourcesanddecisions,andconsiderthefollowing:

Redsnapperandgraytriggerfish

a) AredatadecisionsmadebytheDWandAWsoundandrobust?ThedocumentationinsupportofthedatadecisionsmadebytheDataWorkshop(DW)andAssessmentWorkshop(AW)weredetailedandcomprehensive.AllofthecritiquesintheDWreportforthedifferentdatasetsconsideredforinclusionintheassessmentwereinformativeanddealtwithlimitationsandsourcesofbias.TheAWreportdocumenteddatadecisionsmadeaftertheDWaswellastheresultsofdecisionsconcerningselectivity,

abundanceindices,ageandlengthcompositions,etc.Alldecisionswerewell-supportedandbackgroundsupportingdocumentswerealsoavailable.b) Aredatauncertaintiesacknowledged,reported,andwithinnormalorexpectedlevels?DatauncertaintieswerediscussedindetailintheDWandforthosedatasetsrecommendedforinclusionintheassessment,measuresofdataqualitysuchasCoefficientsofVariation(CVs),samplesizeorrangesofplausibleparametervalueswereprovided.TheAWusedthesemeasurestoweightdifferentdataseriesinthemodelandtoparameterizetheMCBandsensitivityanalyses.c) Aredataappliedproperlywithintheassessmentmodel?TheapplicationofthedataintheBeaufortAssessmentModel(BAM)followscommonpracticeandwasjudgedtobesound.TheDWandAWthoroughlyevaluatedanumberofissuesdealingwithwhatyearsweretobeused,howdatawastobeweightedinthemodelandsourcesofuncertaintywerewelldocumented.d) Areinputdataseriesreliableandsufficienttosupporttheassessmentapproachand

findings?

RedsnapperTheinputdataseriesappearadequatetosupporttheassessmentresultsandfindings.WhiletheDWandAWdiddocumenttheevaluationanddecisionsforthemanydifferentkindsofdatausedinthisassessment,thefollowingissueswerenotedwhendiscussingthestrengthsandweaknessesassociatedwiththedifferentkindsofdatathatwereused.FisheryremovalsThecurrentevaluationofstockstatus,especiallyintermsoftheoverfisheddeterminationisconditionalonthereconstructionofthehistoricaltimeseriesofpopulationandcatchhistoryincludingbothlandingsanddiscards.Inthisassessment,thetimeserieswasstartedin1950toestablishaperiodofstableagestructureduringaperiodoftimewhenfishingmortalitywasexpectedtobeverylow.Thereconstructionoftheremovalseriessince1950requiredconsiderableworkandreviewbytheDWtocombineavailabledata,inferhistoricalcatchesbasedonrecentdataandtoaccountforweightconversions,speciesmisidentification,areaofcapture,etc.RecreationalcatchesrecordedinMRFSSfrom1981to2003hadtobecalibratedtobeconsistentwithcatchesinMRIPfrom2004tothepresent.Sincetheintroductionofthemoratoriumin2010,removalshaveconsistedofdiscardsandbeginningin2012limitedcatchesfromthecommercialhandlineandrecreationalfleetsduringthemini-seasons.Thegeneralrecreationalfleethasaccountedforthehighestproportionofremovals(landingsplusdiscards,53to71%)overthemini-seasonswithbetween41to50%ofthoseremovalsbeingassignedtodiscards.TheMRIPprogramwasdesignedtosampletherecreationalfisheryoverthewholeyearanddatafromStatesurveyshavebeenusedduringthebrief(3to8days)mini-seasonswhereMRIPdatawerenot

availableorconsideredtobelessreliable.Thereviewpanelnotedthiscollaborationandencourageditscontinuation.Discardsareself-reportedinlogbooksandrecordedbysomeat-seaobservercoverageforcommercialhandlineandheadboatfleets,andself-reportedbyanglersduringinterceptinterviewsforthegeneralrecreationalfleet.Discardestimatesarelessreliablethanlandingsdata,butunderthecurrentmanagementregime,discardswilllikelybethemajorsourceofremovalsinthenearfuture,especiallyiftheapparentstrengthofthe2013yearclassidentifiedintheBAMBAMandpreliminary2015CVIDsurveydataisconfirmed.TheReviewPanelsupportsanyinitiativestoimprovethequalityofdiscardsandlandingsestimatestoimprovetheprecisionandaccuracyofestimatesofremovals.LengthandagecompositionsTheReviewPanelagreedwiththerecommendationbytheAWtoonlyfittolengthcompositionsintheBAMBAMwhenagecompositionswerenotavailable.Lengthcompositionsonlywereavailableforthecommercialhandlinefrom1984to1992,commercialdiscardsin2009and2013,andheadboatdiscardsfrom2005to2014.Agecompositionswerefitinthemodelforhandlinelandingsin1990,1992,1994,and1996to2014,headboatlandingsfrom1978to2014,generalrecreationalfrom2001to2014,andCVIDfor2010to2014.RelativeabundanceindicesTherationaleforincludingabundanceindicesfromthefishery-independentcombinedChevrontrap/videosurvey(CVID,2010–2014)anddatafromthreefishery-dependentCPUEseriesintheBAMstockassessmentmodelwereacceptedbythereviewpanel.CombiningthetrapandvideodataintooneCVIDindexmadesensegiventhatthecamerasweremountedonthetraps.Limitingthehandlineandheadboatcatchrateseriesto2009wasalsoaccepted,giventhatfishermenandanglers’behaviorwouldbeexpectedtochangeduringthemoratorium.Thisleavestheheadboatdiscardrateastheonlyabundanceseriesthatspansboththeopenandclosedfisheryperiods.However,itwouldseemlikelythatthediscardrateindexwouldalsobeaffectedbychangingbehaviorduringthemoratoriumandreduceitseffectivenessasanabundanceindex.SensitivityrunswereconductedtoevaluatethisindexbytheAWandpresentedtothepanel(seeTOR3below).Thefisherydependent(commercialhandlinecatchrates,recreationalheadboatcatchratesanddiscardcatchrates)andindependent(CVIDsurvey)abundanceindicesweremodelledusingeitherzero-augmented(fisherydependent)orzero-inflated(fisheryindependent)GeneralizedLinearModels(GLM).CVsweredevelopedusingbootstrapmethodsforallmodelsexceptfortheheadboatdiscardindexwhereajackknifeapproachwasused.TheestimatedCVsforthehandlineandheadboatcatchrateswerealllessthan0.1andweresetto0.2fortheBAMbasemodel.TheincreaseinCVto0.2reflectedargumentsmadeinFrancisetal.(2003,SEDAR41-RD72)thatCVsestimatedforeitherfisherydependentorindependentindicesunderestimatethetruevariabilityforabundance,becausetheydonotincludeannualvariabilityincatchability.Francisetal.(2003)recommendeddefaultCVsbetween0.15and0.2forfisherydependentdatasets,and0.2fortrawlsurveyannualvariationbasedonananalysisofdatasetsfromassessmentsofNewZealandstocks.TheCVsforthediscardandtheCVIDindicesrangedfrom0.17to0.37and0.17to0.26,respectivelyandwereusedasisinthemodel.ThisdoesnotmeanthatestimatedCVscloser

to0.2actuallydoincludevariabilityincatchabilityinsteadkeepingalloftheCVsintherangeof0.2moreorlessgivestheindicesequalfirststageweightsinthemodel.However,assumingaconstantCVoverthewholetimeseriesforthehandlineandheadboatcatchratesdoesnotreflectvariationinsamplesizeorotherfactorsbyyear.EvaluationofthevalidityoftheoriginalCVestimatesrequiresinformationonhowthestandardizedserieswerecalculated,andhowthebootstraporjackknifeprocedurewasimplemented.Whilethedescriptionsofthemodelingapproachusedwereadequatelydetailed,therewasnoinformationonhowthestandardizedtimeseriesusedinthestockassessmentwereactuallycalculated.InformationprovidedbyJ.Ballenger(SCDNR)afterthemeetingreferredtoRsoftwarethatwasdevelopedbyE.J.Dick(NMFS,SantaCruz),andmodifiedbyE.Williams(NMFS,Beaufort)andP.Conn(NMFS,Seattle),thatcalculatedtheannualindexestimatesforthezero-augmentedmodelsusingamarginalmeansapproach.Asimilarmarginalmeansapproachwasusedforthezero-inflatedmodelusingtheRfunctionexpand.grid.TherewerenodetailsonthestructureofthebootstrapestimatesforthefisherydependentindicesintheDWreport.J.BallengerreportedthatobservationswerebootstrappedfortheCVIDindexanditislikelythatthesamewasdoneforthefisherydependentindices.Themarginalmeanapproachtostandardizationisconditionalonhavingafixedsetofcovariatesorfactorlevelstocalculatetheyeareffectsfortheannualindex.Bootstrappingobservationsresultsinarandomsamplingofcovariateorfactorlevelsandgiventhatonaverageonly2/3ofthesamplesizeineachbootstrapsamplewillbeuniquerecordsorsets,rangesofcovariateswillvaryandfactorlevelsmaybemissingoverthesesamples.Modelscomputedforeachbootstrapsamplemaynotbestructuredthesameiffactorlevelsaremissing.Inaddition,changesintherangeofthecovariatesinthebootstrapsamplesmaynotsupporttheoriginalfittedmodel,especiallyforcoefficientsofhighdegreepolynomials.Finally,thebootstrapestimatesofvariancecouldalsoreflectvariabilityinthechangingbaseforthemarginalmeansapproach.Theseproblemsmaybelessofanissueforthejackknifeifitwasstructuredasasimple“leave-one-out”approach,exceptintheextremesituationswheretherewasonlyoneobservationforafactorlevel.Asanalternative,bootstrappingoftheresidualsfromtheoriginalmodelfittothedatamaymoreappropriatelyestimatethevarianceofthestandardizedsurveyindex.Inthiscasetheresiduals(intheappropriatescale)arerandomlycombinedwiththepredictedvaluesfromtheoriginalmodelfittogivenewobservationsthatarethenusedtofittheGLMmodelforeachbootstrapreplication.Therangeofthecovariatesandlevelsforthefactorswillstaythesameoverallofthebootstrapreplications,andthevariancesoftheannualindiceswillbeafunctionofthevariabilityoftheresidualsfromthefittedmodelconditionalonthestandardizationapproach.Iamnotawareofanypublishedapplicationsofthiskindofmodel-basedbootstrappingforthetwo-stagetypeofGLMsusedhereandtheremaybesomeissuesthatneedtobeworkedouttoobtainvalidvarianceestimates.

GrayTriggerfish

FisheryremovalsPriorto1980s,GrayTriggerfishwerenotheavilyexploitedastheywerenotconsideredadesirablespecies.Thefirstyearfortheassessmentwassettobe1988tocoincidewithwheninterestincatchingGrayTriggerfishdevelopedandwhendataondiscards,lengthandagecompositionbecameavailable.Thesamekindsofdatasourcesthatwereusedforredsnapperwereusedheretoreconstructthelandingsanddiscardhistoryforgraytriggerfish.Assuch,allofthesamecaveats,includingthoseconcerningthereliabilityofthediscarddataequallyapplyaswell.LengthandagecompositionsRecently,ageingraytriggerfishhasbeensuccessfullydeterminedusingincrementsindorsalspines,becauseofthedifficultyinobtainingincrementdatafromotherhardstructuresincludingotoliths.ResultsfromfittingvonBertalanffygrowthcurvestothelengthandagedataindicatedthattherewasaverybroaddistributionoflengthatagerelativetotheannualincreaseinlengthbyage.ThisinturncanmakeitdifficulttoestimateannualagecompositionsandtrackcohortsbyBAMthroughfitstosamplelengthcompositions.TheAWhadrecommendedthatbothlengthandagecompositionsforheadboatsandtheCVIDbeincludedinthemodel,butthisraisedconcernsbytheReviewPanelthatthesedatawereinsensebeingdouble-countedinthemodel,andthereforereceivingmoreweightinthemodelthantheseparatelengthandagecompositionsavailablefortheotherdataseries(e.g.,landings,discards).TheReviewPanelrequestedasensitivityrunofBAMomittinglengthcompositionswhereagecompositionswereavailable.Removalofthelengthcompositiondataresultedinpoorerfitstotheassociatedagecompositionssuggestingpossiblythatsamplingforagemayhavebeeninadequateforthosecases,especiallygiventhebroaddistributionoflengthatagenotedabove.RelativeabundanceindicesInitially,threefisherydependentabundanceindices,aheadboatindex(1995–2009),ageneralrecreationalindex(1993–2009),andacommercialhandlineindex(1993–2009)alongwiththeCVIDindexfortheperiod1990to2014,wereincludedintheBAMBAM.TheCVIDindexwasbasedonChevrontrapcatchesfortheperiodupto2010afterwhichthevideocameraindexwascombinedwiththetrapindex.TheAWrecommendeddroppingthethreefisherydependentindicesbecauseofconflictsbetweenthecommercialindexandthetworecreationalindices,andtheconflictbetweenallthreeandtheCVIDindex.TheversionpresentedtotheReviewPanelonlyincludedtheCVIDindex.Similartothecaseforredsnapper,thegraytriggerfishCVIDsurveydatawasmodeledusingaZeroinflatedNegativeBinomialmodel,andCVswerecalculatedbasedonbootstrappingthesurveyobservations,refittingthemodelandcalculatingastandardizedindexusingtheRfunctionexpand.grid.TheissuesraisedabovewiththisapproachforestimatingbootstrapCVsforredsnapperapplyequallytograytriggerfish.

ThepossibilityofgearsaturationeffectsfortheChevrontrapswasalsoraisedbytheresultsofBacheleretal.(2013;SEDAR41-RD79)whoshowthatcatchratesofGrayTriggerfishreachedanasymptoteonceamoderatenumber(between50and100individuals)ofallspecieswerecaughtinthetrap.

2. Evaluateanddiscussthestrengthsandweaknessesofthemethodsusedtoassessthestock,

takingintoaccounttheavailabledata,andconsideringthefollowing:Redsnapper

a) Aremethodsscientificallysoundandrobust?TheBAMBAMincorporateddatafromawiderangeofsourcestoformanintegratedviewofpopulationdynamicsfortheSouthAtlanticredsnapperstock.Anumberofassumptionshadtobemadeconcerningincompletecoveragewithrespecttotime,space,andfisheries.Thisassessmentevaluatedtherobustnessofthestockstatusdeterminationstothedatadecisions,assumptions,andalternativemodelconfigurationsthroughextensivesensitivityanalysesandMonte-CarloBootstrapanalyses.Themethodsusedforthisassessmentwerejudgedtobescientificallysoundandrobust.b) Areassessmentmodelsconfiguredproperlyandusedconsistentwithstandard

practices?TheBAMistheapprovedassessmentmethodformanystocksintheSouthAtlanticSnapper-Groupercomplex,andallowsforincorporatingfisherydependentandindependentindices,aswellaslifehistoryinformationintothestockassessment.Thismodelisalsowellsuitedfordealingwithremovalsfromavarietyofsources,suchascommercialfisheries,recreationalfisheries,anddiscards.Themodelforthisstockassessmentwashighlycomplexwithmanyassumptionsanddatasources,anditsapplicationwasconsistentwithstandardpractices.Theconfigurationwasthoroughlyevaluatedwithrespecttothedeterminationofstockstatus.InadditiontotheBAM,twoproductionmodelsandacatchcurveanalysiswereappliedtothedata.Allofthesemodelswereappliedtothedataaccordingtostandardpractices.c) Arethemethodsappropriatefortheavailabledata?ThetwoproductionmodelsignoredthelengthandagecompositiondatathatwereusedintheBAMBAM.Whilethemodelingofthelengthandagecompositiondatacanbecomplexduetotheneedtoassumedifferentformsofselectivityforindicesandremovals,thereviewpanelagreedwiththeconclusionsoftheAWthatthesedataareanimportantsourceofinformationforunderstandingthestockpopulationdynamics.Thecatchcurvemethodassumesthatthepopulationagestructurewasstableduetoconstantrecruitmentandmortality,neitherofwhichconditionsholdforredsnapper.Inaddition,selectivitiesforthecatchcurveanalysiswereallassumedtobeflat-toppedunlikethemostofthoseusedintheBAM.

TheBAMbasemodelconfigurationwasagreedtobethemostappropriatefordeterminingstockstatusgiventheinformationavailable.ThebaseconfigurationpresentedattheAWhadtobeupdatedduringthereviewpanelmeetingtocorrecttheagecompositionsfortheChevrontrapsurveys.Thisupdatedversiondifferedfromtheoriginalbasecasewithrespecttoprovidingslightlymoreoptimisticstatusdeterminationmeasures,althoughstockstatusremainedthesame.RemovaloftheCVIDindexresultedinmoreoptimisticstockstatusmeasuresalthoughstockstatusdeterminationsremainedthesameasthebasecase(S4).Aflat-toppedselectivityfunctionforages4+wasassumedfortheCVIDcatches,implyingthattherelativeabundanceofolderfishwasrepresentedbythissurvey.PubliccommentsubmittedbeforeorpresentedduringthepanelreviewsuggestedthatthelargerolderredsnapperwouldnotbeasvulnerabletotheChevrontrapsasyoungerfish,duetobehaviororhabitatspecificdifferencesincludingdepth.However,studiesonredsnapperavailabletothereviewpaneldidnotfindevidenceforlength/depthrelationships(SEDAR41-RD34)orthelackoflargerfishinchevrontraps(SEDAR31-RD36,SEDAR31-DW28).Thepanelnotedthatsomeofthelargestandoldestfishinthelength/agesampleswerefromtheCVIDsurvey.Thepanelconcludedthattherewasinsufficientevidencetorejecttheflat-toppedselectivitycurvefortheCVIDsurvey.Priortothemoratoriumtheselectivityforthegeneralrecreationallandingswereassumedtobedomedshapesimilartothelandingsfromtheheadboatfleet.Duringthemoratorium,thedomedshapedcurvewascontinuedtobeusedfortheheadboatfleet,butaflat-toppedselectivitywasassumedforthegeneralrecreationallandingstoreflectthelargersizeandolderagecompositionsseeninthesamplesduringthemini-seasons.Theassessmentteamconductedasensitivitystudyatthepanel’srequest,wherethedomedshapeselectivityfortheheadboatfleetwasusedforthegeneralrecreationalfleet.Thismodificationdidnotresultinanychangeofstockstatusdeterminationfromthebasecase,althoughtherewassomedegradationinthefitstotheagecompositiondata.Generalrecreationaldiscardswereestimatedfromanglerinterviewdataandnosizecompositioninformationwasavailable.Thesizeandagecompositionofthesediscardswasassumedtobethesameastheheadboatdiscards,eventhoughthegeneralrecreationalfisherywasassumedtobetargetinglarger/olderfishthantheheadboatsduringthemini-seasons,asrepresentedbytheflat-toppedselectivitycurveusedforthisfishery.Estimatedgeneralrecreationaldiscardsaccountedfor56%oftheremovalsbynumbersin2014,andwillcontinuetobeamajorsourceofinformationasthemoratoriumcontinues.Estimatesofthesediscardsarealsothemostuncertaincomponentoftheremovalsdata.TheassessmentteamwasunabletofittheBAMBAMassumingerrorinlandings,andinthebasemodelallremovaldatawasfitassumingaCVof0.05.Sensitivityrunsassuminghigherorlowertotaldiscardsdidnotresultininanyappreciablechangestostockstatus(S19,S20).

GrayTriggerfish

a) Aremethodsscientificallysoundandrobust?TheBAMwasusedfortheSouthAtlanticgraytriggerfishstockassessmentwithdatasourcessimilartothoseusedfortheredsnapperassessment.Thismodelandtheassociatedsensitivityanalysesareconsideredscientificallysoundandrobust.b) Areassessmentmodelsconfiguredproperlyandusedconsistentwithstandard

practices?ThebasemodelonlyincludedtheCVIDsurveyasanindexofabundanceandusedsixtimesup-weightingtoimprovethefitofthesurveyinthemodel.Thebasemodelestimatedverylowlevelsofabundanceintheinitialyearsof1988and1989atatimewhenexploitationwasexpectedtobequitelow.Sensitivityrunsdeterminedthatacombinationoffittingthemodelcloselytothelow1990CVIDpointbyusingsixtimesup-weightingandtheassumedselectivityfortheCVIDresulted in lowabundanceandrecruitment inthefirsttwoyears. FittingtheCVIDwithoutup-weightingessentiallyresultedinnoappreciabletrendoverthetimeseriesalthoughthefitwascontainedwithintheconfidenceintervalsforallthesurveypoints.ThebaseconfigurationoftheBAMfromtheAssessmentWorkshopwasrevisedwithcorrectedagecompositionsoftheCVIDsurveyduringtheReviewWorkshop.Althoughthedeterminationofstockstatuswasnotinfluencedbythecorrection,resultsfromthecorrectedbasemodelweresomewhatdifferent.TheReviewPanelrequestedandreviewedtworevisedmodelstoresolveapparentdifficultiesinfittingtothesurveyandassociatedestimatesofabundanceinthefirstyearoftheassessmentseries.AnalternativeBAMconfigurationwithastartingyearof1974estimatedaseriesoflowrecruitmentstoexplainthelowsurveyindexin1990.Theextremelylowestimatesofabundanceinthefirstyearoftheassessmentmayresultfromanunusualsurveyobservationinthefirstyearofthesurvey,ratherthanoverfittingtheentiresurveyseries.Anexploratoryanalysisthatremovedthe1990surveyobservationproducedestimatesofabundanceinthefirstyearoftheassessmentthatwassimilartotherestofthetimeseries.TheChevrontrapsurveybeganin1988,buttheprotocolwasbeingrefinedin1988and1990.Therehavebeennochangestothedesignofthesurveysince1990.However,HurricaneHugowas7-8monthspriortothe1990survey.AstudyofJamaicanreeffishfoundchangesinabundance,behavior,anddistributionayearafterHurricaneAllen(Kaufman1983).TheReviewPanelwasalsoconcernedthattheneedtoup-weightthesurveymayresultfromusingcompositionsamplestwice(asagecompositionsandlengthcompositions).Anexploratoryanalysisthatremovedlengthcompositionsforfleetswithagecompositions,withnoup-weightingofthesurvey,stilldidnotfitthesurveywell.c) Arethemethodsappropriatefortheavailabledata?Basedonthemagnitudeofchangestothedata,resultsandmodeldiagnosticsfromtheAssessmentWorkshopbasemodel,aswellasconcernsaboutoverfittingthesurvey,the

ReviewPanelrecommendsthatfurthermodelingisneededtomodelthecorrecteddataappropriately.

3. Evaluatetheassessmentfindingsandconsiderthefollowing:

Redsnapper

a) Areabundance,exploitation,andbiomassestimatesreliable,consistentwithinputdataandpopulationbiologicalcharacteristics,andusefultosupportstatusinferences?

TheReviewpanelacceptedthenewbasemodelwiththecorrectedagecompositionsfortheCVIDsurveyindexasthebestavailablemodeltoprovideadvicefortheSouthAtlanticredsnapperfishery.However,thereviewpaneldidhaveconcernswhicharediscussedbelow.Thereliabilityofmodelestimatesofabundance,biomass,andexploitationdependonhowwellthemonitoringindicesincludedinthemodeltrackthepopulationtrendsovertime.Inthisassessment,fisherydependentcatchrateswereusedforthepre-moratoriumperiodandwerereplacedbytheCVIDsurveyindexfor2010tothepresent.TheMRIPannualredsnapperdiscardratefromtheheadboatfleetfor2005tothepresentwastheonlyindexthatspannedthetwotimeperiods.Theconsistencyofthestockstatusdeterminationsforthiscombinationofmonitoringindiceswasevaluatedthroughaseriesofsensitivityruns.TheserunsindicatedthatthedeterminationofstockstatuswasactuallyfairlyinsensitivetochangessuchasusingthelongertimeseriesfortheCVID(S9),removingtheCVID(S4),up-weightingthefisherydependentindices(S3),droppingtheheadboatdiscardindexfor2010tothepresent(S12),droppingtheheadboatdiscardindexaltogether(S16),oronlyusingtheCVID(S23).Allindiceswerewellfitbythedata,exceptfortheheadboatdiscardrateinthemostrecentyears.Alloftheseresultssuggestthatthepopulationtrendsinthemodelresultsprobablyhaveasmuchormoretodowiththeveryclosefitofthemodeltothelandings,discarddata,andassociatedagecompositionsastheydowiththetrendsinthemonitoringdata.CVsweresetto0.05forthelandingsanddiscards,whichseemsunreasonablylowfortheMRIPestimatesofthelatterinthecaseoftherecreationalfishery,butahigherCVof0.20fordiscardswasinvestigatedinMCBstudy,andtheresultsdidnotindicateachangeinstockstatusfromthebasecase.b) Isthestockoverfished?Whatinformationhelpsyoureachthisconclusion?Theestimatedabundancefor2014wasatlevelsnotseeninthemodelsincethemid-1960s;however,the2014populationmainlyconsistedofages1–4years(96%bynumber).Despitethesehighabundancelevels,thestockisoverfishedbybiomassasSSB2014/SSBF30%=0.16duetothelackofolderfishinthepopulation.

c) Isthestockundergoingoverfishing?Whatinformationhelpsyoureachthisconclusion?Thereviewpanelcouldnotfindanyevidenceagainsttheoverfishingdeterminationintheassessment,butdidhaveanumberconcernsthatarediscussedbelow.Thepanelalsoreflectedonissueswithusingapicalfishingmortalitytomonitortheimpactofthefisheryonthestockovertime(seeitemebelow).Thecurrentdeterminationthatoverfishingisoccurringwhilethefisheryisundermoratoriumgeneratedmuchdiscussionduringthepanelreview.Themoratoriumhasnotresultedinacompleteclosureastherehavebeenlandingsfrommini-seasonsin2012–2014andremovalsduetodiscardsduringtheseseasonsandthroughoutallofmoratoriumyearsforrecreationalfisheries.Theestimatedfishingmortalitiesreflectthelargedecreaseexpectedwiththeintroductionofthemoratoriumin2010.However,since2010fishingmortalitieshaveincreasedfromthislowpointmainlyduetodiscardmortalitiesandcatchesfromthegeneralrecreationalfishery.AcomparisonofFatages1,2,3,4,and5+indicatesthatwhilefishingmortalitywasgreatlyreducedonallagegroupsin2010,fishingmortalitygreatlyincreasedontheolderage4and5+groupby2014whiletheFsfortheyoungergroupageslevelcontinuedtobelower.Themoratoriumappearstohavebeenabenefittotheyoungerfishbutnotsoforfish4yearsandolder,asinterpretedbytheselectivitycurvesusedforthemoratoriumyears.ThedeterminationofoverfishingintheassessmentreliesonthegeometricmeanofapicalFsummedacrossfleetseachyearover2012–2014period.Currently,F2012-2104/F30%=2.52.TheretrospectiveanalysisindicatedthattherewasasubstantialincreaseinapicalFfor2010to2013withtheadditionofthe2014data.TheindividualresultsforthedifferentrunswerenotpresentedanditisnotknownwhethertheagesatwhichtheapicalFsoccurredchangedwiththeadditionof2014data.Giventheretrospectivepattern,itislikelythathadtheredsnapperassessmentbeendoneayearago,evidenceforoverfishingwouldhavebeenmuchweakerthanpresentedhere.Themainchangebetween2013and2014wasthatlandingsanddiscardsbythegeneralrecreationalfleetweremuchhigherin2014comparedto2013byabout3.7timesfornumberslandedand3.4timesfordiscardnumbers.Estimatedincreaseinweightlandedbythegeneralrecreationalfleetwas3.4timesthe2013landings.Fishingmortalitiesassociatedwithgeneralrecreationallandingsanddiscardsmakeup78%ofthe2014apicalFestimate.Themini-seasonin2014waslongerthaninpreviousyears,andrecruitsin2014werethehighestinthetimeseries.Thepanelaskedforasensitivityruntoinvestigatetheimpactoftheflattoppedselectivitycurveassumedforthegeneralrecreationalfisherybysubstitutingthedomedcurveusedforheadboatsfor2010–2014.Thedomedselectivitydidnotresultinanysubstantialchangeinstockstatusfromthebasecase.Thefishingmortalities-at-agewerenotpresentedbygear,soitwasnotpossibletoseewhichagecorrespondedtoapicalFforthegeneralrecreationallandingsordiscardsforeitherselectivitycurve.d) Isthereaninformativestockrecruitmentrelationship?Isthestockrecruitmentcurve

reliableandusefulforevaluationofproductivityandfuturestockconditions?

Thestockrecruitmentcurvewasnotinformativeandinferencewasbasedonsettingsteepnessto0.99andassumingaveragerecruitment.Meanannualrecruitmentwasassumedandlognormaldeviationsaroundthatmeanwereestimatedinthemodel.Recruitmentistypicallynotwellestimatedinthelastyearofstockassessments,becausethereislittleinformationtoinformtheestimate.TheestimateofstrongrecruitmentinthelastyearoftheassessmentissupportedbythehighCVIDindex,aswellasthelengthcompositionoftheheadboatfleet.ReviewWorkshopparticipantsreportedcontinuedsignalsofstrongrecruitmentin2015fisheryandsurveydata.TheReviewPanelrecognizesthatprojectionsarelargelydependentontheestimateofrecentrecruitment,buttheestimatesofabundanceatagefromthebasemodelisthemostreliablebasisforstockstatusdeterminationandprojection.e) Arethequantitativeestimatesofthestatusdeterminationcriteriaforthisstock

reliable?Ifnot,arethereotherindicatorsthatmaybeusedtoinformmanagersaboutstocktrendsandconditions?

AlternativeMetricsofFishingMortality

EvaluatingtrendsinFovertimerequiresametricthatiscomparableamongyearsandreflectsexploitationacrossarangeofages.ApicalF(maximumFatage,Figure1)isbasedonadifferentrangeofagesamongyears,becauseofchangingfleetcontributionsandchangesinfleetselectivities.ApicalFalsodoesnotreflectFforpartiallyselectedages.

Figure1.Maximumfishingmortality(F)atageforSouthAtlanticredsnapper

DecidingonamoreappropriatemetricofFforRedSnapperischallengingbecauseofthecomplexityofpatternsinestimatedFatage(Figure2):

− Age-1Fhasonepeakin2004.Fwasnegligibleuntilthemid-1990s,peakedat0.4in2004,thendecreasedtoaround0.1since2010.

− Age-2Fhadonepeakat1.0in1985.Fdecreasedtoaround0.1inthelate1990s,increasedto0.2-0.3from1999to2010,thendecreasedtoaround0.1since2010.

− Age-3Falsohadamajorpeakat1.6intheearly1980s,decreasedto0.3-0.5intheearly1990s,increasedtoaminorpeakof0.8in2008anddecreasedto0.2-0.3since2010.

− Age-4Fhadthreepeaksat>1.0intheearly1980s,1.5in1997and1.4in2008,thenincreasingfrom0.2in2010to0.5in2014.

− Ages5andolderhavesimilarpatternsinF(threepeaksintheearly1980s,1997and2008-2009,thenincreasingfrom2010to2014).FormostofthetimeseriesFdecreaseswithage,butsince2010,Fatages5+issimilar,increasingfromapproximately0.2in2010to0.5in2014.

Figure2.Fishingmortality(F)atageforSouthAtlanticredsnapper.

AlternativemetricsofFwillreflectthesepatternsdifferently.SimpleaverageFatagecanreflecttrendsforsimilarages(e.g.,ages2–3,ages4+),andshowdifferentrecenttrends.Duringthemoratorium,Fremainedlowforages1–3,butmorethantripledforages4+(Figure3).

Figure3.Averagefishingmortality(F)foragegroups1-3and4+forSouthAtlanticredsnapper.

AverageFcanbeweightedbyabundanceatageorbiomassatagetomeasuretheaverageFexertedontheentirestock(Figure4).Withyoungagestypicallyhavinggreaterabundance,abundanceweightedaverageFreflectspatternsofFatyoungages.Biomasspeaksatdifferentagesovertheassessmenttimeseries(age-20in1950,age-2in2014),sobiomassweightedaverageFreflectsavaryingagerange.

AverageFcanalsobeweightedbyexploitableabundance(theproductofabundanceatageandselectivityatage)orexploitablebiomass(theproductofbiomassatageandselectivityatage)tomeasuretheaverageFexertedontheexploitablestock(Figure5).ThetwoexploitablestockaverageF’saresimilar,buttheexploitablebiomassweightedFreflectsolderages(e.g.,morethandoublesduringthemoratorium)andtheexploitableabundanceweightedFreflectsyoungerages(e.g.,remainslowduringthemoratorium).

Figure4.Averagefishingmortality(F)atageweightedbyestimatednumbers(Nweighted)orestimatedbiomass(Bweighted)forSouthAtlanticredsnapper.

Figure5.Averagefishingmortality(F)atageweightedbyexploitablenumbers(expNweighted)orexploitablebiomass(expBweighted)forSouthAtlanticredsnapper.

Theoverfishinglimit(F30%SPR)canbeexpressedinthesamecurrencyasthemeasureofFfromthestockassessment.F30%iscurrentlyexpressedasApicalF,assumingtheaverageselectivityforthelastthreeyearsofthestockassessment,whichpeaksatage-5(e.g.,F30%expressedasage-5Fis0.15).AllformsofF30%SPRexpressedasanaverageFareless

thanage-5F,becausetheyincludesomepartiallyrecruitedages.AccordingtoallofthealternativeFmetricsconsidered,overfishingisoccurring,buttovaryingdegrees.

Metric2012–2014Geo.Mean F30% F/F30%

F(age-5) 0.43 0.15 2.8F(ages1–3) 0.15 0.06 2.7F(age-4+) 0.35 0.12 2.8F(Nwtd) 0.14 0.08 1.8F(Bwtd) 0.24 0.11 2.1F(expNwtd) 0.20 0.10 2.0F(expBwtd) 0.31 0.12 2.5

GrayTriggerfish


Anissuewasidentifiedwithinclusionofbothageandlengthcompositionsinthefittingprocess,whichwasexploredaftertheCVIDagecompositionshadbeencorrectedforerrorsdiscoveredlateintheweek.AdditionalrunstoestablishabasecasewiththecorrectedagecompositionsandremovinglengthcompositionswhenagecompositionsresultedinpoorfitstotheheadboatandCVIDagecompositions.Atthispoint,thereviewpanelconcludedthatgiventheseproblemsandthoseidentifiedforfittingtheCVIDindex,therewasn’tenoughtimeleftinthemeetingtoestablishabasecaseforgraytriggerfish.Theassessmentpanelneededtoreviewthefindingstodateandworkwiththeassessmentteamtodevelopanewbasecase.

b) Isthestockoverfished?Whatinformationhelpsyoutoreachthisconclusion?

WithoutanacceptedbasecasefromtheBAM,thereviewpanelwasunabletodetermineifthestockwasoverfishedwithrespecttothestandardreferencepoints.Abundancein2014fromtheCVIDsurveywasat82%ofthemaximumabundanceinthetimeseries.Basedontheinformationavailabletothereviewpaneltherewasnoevidencethatthestockisoverfishedatthistime.

c) Isthestockundergoingoverfishing?Whatinformationhelpsyoureachthisconclusion?

WithoutanacceptedbasecasefromtheBAM,thereviewpanelwasunabletodetermineifoverfishingwasoccurringwithrespecttothestandardreferencepoints.In2014totalremovalshavedeclinedby38%fromthelandingsin2009,whichrepresented

thehighestlandingsinthe1988to2014timeseries.TheCVIDsurveyindexindicatesthatabundancehasbeenincreasingsince2010.Basedontheinformationpresentedtothereviewpanel,therewasnoevidencethatcurrentlevelsofremovalshaveresultedinoverfishing.

d) Isthereaninformativestockrecruitmentrelationship?Isthestockrecruitmentcurvereliableandusefulforevaluationofproductivityandfuturestockconditions?

Thestockrecruitmentcurvewasnotinformativeastherewaslittleevidenceforlowrecruitmentatlowstocksize.Inferencewasbasedonsettingsteepnessto0.99andmeanannualrecruitmentwasassumed.Lognormaldeviationsaroundthemeanwereestimatedinthemodel.e) Arethequantitativeestimatesofthestatusdeterminationcriteriaforthisstock


Withoutareliablebasecase,quantitativeestimatesofstatusdeterminationwerenotavailable.

4. Evaluatethestockprojections,includingdiscussingstrengthsandweaknesses,andconsiderthe

following:RedSnapper

a) Arethemethodsconsistentwithacceptedpracticesandavailabledata?TheprojectionmethodusedinthisassessmentwasconsistentwiththoseusedwidelyinSEDARassessmentsbasedonstatisticalmodelssuchasBAMandStockSynthesis,andwasconsistentwiththeavailabledata.ThemethodusedstochasticprojectionsthatextendedtheMonteCarlo/Bootstrap(MCB)fitsoftheassessmentmodelwithaddedstochasticityinrecruitment,andhencethepropagationofuncertaintyfromtheassessmentintotheprojectionperiodisinternallyconsistent.b) Arethemethodsappropriatefortheassessmentmodelandoutputs?TheReviewPanelconcludedthattheredsnapperstockprojectionsprovidedforSEDAR41areappropriatefortheBAMassessmentmodelandoutputs.c) Aretheresultsinformativeandrobust,andaretheyusefultosupportinferencesof

probablefutureconditions?Theprojectionsprovidetheinformationneededtodevelopmanagementadvice,showingprojectionsforF=0;F=FCURRENT(geometricmeanofthelast3years);F=F30%;F=FTARGET;F=FREBUILD(maxexploitationthatrebuildsingreatestallowedtime;2044).AnadditionalprojectionwascarriedoutwithFfromdiscardsonly.Eachprojectionshowsthe10thand90thpercentilesofthereplicateprojectionsallowinganevaluationoftheprobabilityof

overfishingoccurring,orthestockbeingoverfished,foreachyearintherebuildingtimeframeupto2044.Theprojectionsarerobustintermsofpropagatingrealisticlevelsofuncertaintyfromtheacceptedbasemodelrun.TheReviewPanelrecognizesthattheperceptionofcurrentselectivityusedtoderivereferencepointsandprojectionsisconditionalonrecentfishingbehavior,andprojectionsofalternativemanagementscenariosshouldconsideralternativeselectivityassumptionsthatareconsistentwitheachscenario.Forexample,alternativesthatdonotallowrecreationallandings(e.g.,moratoriawithnomini-seasons)shouldnotassumethestatusquocompositeselectivitythatincludesaflat-toppedselectivityforgeneralrecreationallandings.d) Arekeyuncertaintiesacknowledged,discussed,andreflectedintheprojectionresults?Keyuncertaintiesintheprojectionsareacknowledged,discussed,andreflectedintheprojectionresults.TheMCBrunsincludedrangesofvaluesofnaturalmortality,discardmortalityandfecundityatageagreedtobytheassessmentworkinggroup,togetherwithbootstrapselectionofdatausingwell-justifiederrordistributionsandadditionalrandomprocesserrorinrecruitmentconditionalonthefittedstockrecruitpatternwithsteepnessfixedat0.99.Initialagestructureatthestartof2015wascomputedbytheassessmentmodel,andfishingratesfortheprojectionstartedin2017followinganinitializationperiodin2015–2016,wherefishingmortalityrateswerederivedtorepresentthemanagementmeasuresinplace.Inaddition,thestockassessmentreportwasquiteclearonthefactthatitisunrealistictoassumethatthecurrentfishingpatternsincludingeffortbyfleet,discardtrends,andselectivitypatternswillcontinueasthestockrecovers.Managementactionsinresponsetostrongorweakyearclasseswillaffectthesepatternsandinturn,thecurrentprojectionsbasedonthem.

GrayTriggerfish

SincethebaseBAMforgraytriggerfishwasnotacceptedbytheReviewPanelprojections,resultswereonlyreviewedintermsofthemethodologicalapproachesused—i.e.,projectionsresultswerenotconsideredasprovidingplausiblescenariosand,therefore,werenotinvestigatedindetail.TheprojectionmethodusedisconsistentwiththoseusedwidelyinSEDARassessmentsbasedonstatisticalmodelssuchasBAMandStockSynthesis,andisconsistentwiththeavailabledata.Further,themethoddescribedforthestochasticprojectionsthatextendedtheMonteCarlo/Bootstrap(MCB)fitsoftheassessmentmodelwithaddedstochasticityinrecruitment,andhencethepropagationofuncertaintyfromtheassessmentintotheprojectionperiodisinternallyconsistent.

5. Considerhowuncertaintiesintheassessment,andtheirpotentialconsequences,areaddressed.RedSnapper

a) Commentonthedegreetowhichmethodsusedtoevaluateuncertaintyreflectandcapturethesignificantsourcesofuncertaintyinthepopulation,datasources,andassessmentmethods.

Athoroughevaluationofconvergenceandmodelsensitivityisnecessary,butdifficulttodoforacomplexmodellikeBAMbecauseofthelargenumberofparameters.Uncertaintiesintheassessmentwerethoroughlyexploredthrough(1)amixedMonteCarloandbootstrap(MCB)analysisofquantifyrandomerrorsintheassessmentoutput;(2)sensitivityanalysisaroundthebaseBAMrun;and(3)theuseofalternativeassessmentmodels.TheMonteCarloBootstrapprocedurealsoexploredmanycombinationsofalternativedataandmodelassumptions.Inthebootstrappingofobserveddataonlandings,informationfromtheheadboatprogramwasusedtospecifyadecreasingCVbytimeblocks(i.e.CV=0.15for1981–1995,CV=0.1for1996–2007,andCV=0.05thereafter).TheseCVsreflectrandomerrors.However,landingsfromtheheadboatfisheryaremonitoredthroughmandatorylogbooks,andthusshouldinprinciplehavezerosamplingerrorsforthevesselsinthesamplingframe.TheCVsmayreasonablyreflectrandomerrorsinreporting.However,varioussourcesofsystematicerrors(bias)arenotreflectedthroughtheseCVs.Itisknownthatunder-reportingoftripsdoesoccur,thatcatchdatamaynotalwaysbe100%accurate(forexample,duetorecallbiasiflogbooksarenotfilledinimmediatelyaftereachtrip),andthatothervariationsinreportinglikelyoccur.Becausethedistributionofsuchsystematicerrorsisunknown,itisnotpossibletoquantifythemagnitudeoftheresultinguncertaintyinthelandings.BootstrappingmethodswereusedextensivelytoestimateCVsforabundanceindicesbasedonresamplingoriginalrecordsorobservations,andthenre-fittingstandardizationmodels.AsdiscussedinTOR2,thepurposeofstandardizationistoderiveanindexforafixedsetofcovariates,butresamplingobservationswillintroducevariationassociatedwithcovariatesandthestandardizationprocess,whichwillnotappropriatelycapturethevariationinthestandardizedindex.Model-basedbootstrappingshouldbeconsideredasanalternativeapproachtocapturingthevariabilityofthestandardizedindex.Theinputdataoncatchcompositionandabundanceindicesbycohortareobtainedfrommulti-stagesamplingprogramswherefishingtripstypicallyaretheprimarysamplingunits(PSUs)forfisheriesdata,andlocations/standardizedtrapcatches(90minsoaktime)arethePSUsforthechevrontrap.Substantialcorrelationscanbeexpectedinageorlengthcompositiondatasetsthatareconstructedfromsamples/sub-samplesfrommultiplecatches(whetherfromfisheries-independentsurveysorfisheries,e.g.,AanesandVølstad2015).TheBAMitselfandtheMCBisnotlikelytorealisticallyaccountforcomplexerrorstructureindataweightingwithoutpriorestimatesoftheactualvariance-covariancematricesfortheinputdata.TherobustmultinomialapproachwithnumberofPSU’sasproxyeffectivesamplesizesemployedintheuncertaintyevaluationoftheBAMcanonlypartlyreflectthecomplexerrorstructure.Ideally,onewouldrunbootstrapresamplingonthePSU’stocreatereplicatedBAMrunsthatreflectthecomplexityininputdata,butgiventhecomplexityandconfigurationofBAMthisisnotpossible.TheReviewPaneltherefore

considerstheuncertaintyintheassessmenttobeappropriatelyaddressedgiventheserestrictions.Thesensitivityanalyseswereusedtoexploreawiderangeofdatadecisions,modelassumptionsandmodelconfigurationstoexaminetherobustnessofstockstatusdetermination.Themodelwasrunforaplausiblerangeofvaluesforeachfactor.TheReviewPanelnotedthatthesensitivitytestingbyalternatingonefactoratatime,althoughcommonlydone,maynotfullyreflecttheuncertaintyinmodeloutputsfromacomplexmodelsuchasBAMwithalargenumberofparameters,wheremanyarelikelytobecorrelated(e.g.,SaltelliandAnnoni2010).Globalsensitivityanalysis(Saltellietal.2008)maybeusedtountanglethecontributionofsinglefactors/parametersandinteractionsbetweenparameterstotheoverallvariabilityinmodeloutput.Andersonetal.(2011)provideanexcellentoverviewoftheliterature,andmanyexamplesofapplicationsofglobalsensitivityanalysistoIntegratedAssessmentModelsinclimateresearch,andsomeofthesearelikelytobeapplicabletotheBAM.ModeluncertaintywasmainlyexploredbyrunninganalternativeStockProductionModelIncorporatingCovariates(ASPICsoftwareVersion7.03,SEDAR41-RD74)thatreliesonlength-ageaggregatedcatchandCPUEindices,withnocompositionalcatchbeingincluded.ThedifferencebetweentheASPICandtheBAMresultscan,however,beexplainedbythefactthatASPICdoesnottakeintoaccounttheage-structureofthecatchesandthestock.TheBAMbaseconfigurationisthereforeconsideredtoprovidethemostappropriatebasisforstatusdetermination,despitemanysourcesofuncertainty.

b) Ensurethattheimplicationsofuncertaintyintechnicalconclusionsareclearlystated.TheReviewPanelagreedthattheimplicationsofuncertaintyinthetechnicalconclusionswereclearlystatedandevaluated.

6. ConsidertheresearchrecommendationsprovidedbytheDataandAssessmentworkshopsandmakeanyadditionalrecommendationsorprioritizationswarranted.

a) Clearlydenoteresearchandmonitoringthatcouldimprovethereliabilityof,and

informationprovidedby,futureassessments.

RedSnapper• Giventheconcernsexpressedbyindustryabouttheassumptionsfortheasymptotic

selectivityofredsnappertotheCVIDtraps,itwouldbeusefultohaveanotherfisheryindependentsourceofabundanceandsizecompositiondata.AlonglinesurveyisusedfortheGulfofMexicoredsnapperstock,andthissurveyisassumedtorepresenttheolderfishinthatpopulation.ThepossibilityofinitiatingalonglinesurveyfortheSouthAtlanticwasdiscussedduringthereviewpanelmeeting,anditisrecommendedthatsuchalonglinesurveyshouldbeimplementedassoonaspossible.

• Theapplicationofmodel-based(re-samplingofresiduals)bootstrappingforcalculationofCVsofstandardizedabundanceindicesshouldbeinvestigatedtoavoidvaryingthebasisforstandardizationateachbootstrapreplication.

• Theheadboatdiscardrateindexistheonlyfishery-dependentindexthatwasusedduringthemoratoriumyears.WhileretainingorremovingthisindexdidnotappeartoalterthedeterminationofstockstatusfortheBAM,itwasnotclearhowthisindexreflectstheabundanceofredsnapper,particularlytheyoungerfishatatimewhenanglersaresupposedtobeavoidingthem.Furtherworkisrequiredtoevaluatethereliabilityofdiscarddataasanabundanceindexbyimprovingknowledgeofprivaterecreationalfishermanbehaviorbeforeandduringthemoratorium.

• Discards,particularlythosefromthegeneralrecreationalfleetareamajorsourceofremovalsfromthisfisherywhileundermoratorium.Currently,thesizecompositionsofthediscardsfromthegeneralrecreationalareunknownandassumedtobeequaltothoseestimatedfortheheadboats.Knowledgeofthediscardsizecompositionwillbecomeincreasinglymoreimportanttodeterminethestrengthoftheapparentlystrong2013year-class.Alternativemethodsneedtobedevelopedtoobtainsizeinformationfordiscardsfromthegeneralrecreationalfleet.Onepossibilitythatcouldbeconsideredishavinga“text-a-picture”ofthe“onethatgotaway”contest.Participantscouldtakeapictureoftheredsnappertheycaughtnexttosomethingofknownlengthwiththeirsmartphonebeforediscardingthefish,andthentextthepicturetoanaddresswithinformationondate,time,androughlocationwhentheyreturntoshore.Prizescouldbeawardedbasedonsomecriterion.Thesesampleswillnotberandomsamplesperse,buttheywillatleastprovidearangeofsizesthatmayallowforevaluatingtheassumptionthatthegeneralrecreationsizecompositionscanberepresentedbytheheadboatagecompositions.Thesepicturesmayalsogivesomeinformationontheaccuracyofspeciesidentification.

• PubliccommentduringthePanelReviewsuggestedlargerfishwerenotbeingadequatelyrepresentedbytheChevrontrapsastheydonotassociatewiththeyoungerfishandmayoccupydifferentdepthranges.Aresearchprogramshouldbeinitiatedtodeterminethespatialdistribution(horizontalandvertical)ofredsnapperbysizeusingtrackingandtelemetry.

• ThecurrentestimateofageofsexualmaturityusedintheassessmentisyoungerthanexpectedcomparedtootherLutjanids.HasthisalwaysbeenthecaseforredsnapperintheSouthAtlanticorisitreflectiveofacompensatoryresponsetoheavyexploitation?Furtherinvestigationsintopossiblehistoricaltrendsintheageatsexualmaturityshouldbeinitiated.

• Thecurrentassessmentassumedthatbatchfecunditydidnotvaryovertime.Studiesshouldbeconductedtoevaluatethevalidityofthisassumption.

Graytriggerfish

• Length-at-agehadawiderangewhencomparedwiththeexpectedincreaseinlengthwithage.ThismakesitdifficulttoestimateannualagecompositionsandtrackcohortsbyBAMthroughfitstosamplelengthcompositions.Thisbroadrangeoflength-at-agemaybeduetoageingissues,andtheDWhasrecommendedavalidationstudytorefineandimproveagedetermination.Inaddition,thebroadrangemayalsorepresentspatialvariabilityingrowthcharacteristics.Iflength/agesamplesareavailablebylocation(e.g.,Chevronsets)thenanon-linearmixedeffectsmodelversionofthevonBertalanffymodelcouldbeusedtoinvestigatethepossibilityofsuchpatternswiththegroupingvariablesettolocation.Randomeffectsbylocationcouldbemappedouttoinvestigateforspatialpatternsingrowth.

• BubbleplotsorsomeotherinformativedisplayshouldbeaddedasadiagnostictoevaluatehowwelltheCVIDsurveytrackscohorts.

• FurthermodelingisneededtofitthecorrectedCVIDagecompositiondataandtoresolvethefittothesurvey.Inaddition,thevalidityofthe1990surveyobservationshouldbeevaluatedtoconsiderpossibleeffectsfromHurricaneHugoorotherpossiblereasonsforitappearingtobeabnormallylow.

• Giventheevidencefortrapsaturation,theCVIDindexshouldbere-evaluatedwithrespectthecatchratewithandwithoutsets,wheretotalcatchwasgreaterthan50fish.Temporaltrendsinnumbersoftrapswith>50totalcatchshouldalsobeinvestigated.

• Theapplicationofmodel-based(re-samplingofresiduals)bootstrappingforcalculationofCVsofstandardizedabundanceindicesshouldbeinvestigatedtoavoidvaryingthebasisforstandardizationateachbootstrapreplication.

• Moreresearchtobetterunderstandthelifehistoryisneeded,includingnaturalmortality,maturity,andreproductivepotential,particularlyfortheyoungestages.

• Researchontheeffectsofenvironmentalvariationonthechangesinrecruitmentorsurvivorship.

b) ProviderecommendationsonpossiblewaystoimprovetheSEDARprocess.Theredsnapperandgraytriggerfishassessmentswerebothverycomplexwithrespecttofisherycomposition,datasources,andmodels.BothassessmentsweresupportedbymanydocumentsfromtheassociatedDataandAssessmentworkshops.ThePanelreviewforbothstocksshouldhavebeenafullweekinsteadofthreeandhalfdaystoaccommodateallofthismaterial.UndernormalcircumstancesthiscouldhaveallowedfortimetodevelopthefirstdraftofthePanelReviewgroupreportbeforetheendofthemeeting.Forourparticularmeeting,thediscoveryoferrorsintheCVIDagecompositiondatawouldhavestillbeenasdisruptive,butthefivedaytimeframemayhaveallowedformoretimetocompletemodelruns,etc.,beforetheendofthemeeting.

7. Considerwhetherthestockassessmentconstitutesthebestscientificinformationavailableusingthefollowingcriteriaasappropriate:relevance,inclusiveness,objectivity,transparency,timeliness,verification,validation,andpeerreviewoffisherymanagementinformation.

Theassessmentforredsnapperconstitutesthebestscientificinformationavailable,andfulfilsthefollowingcriteria:Relevance:TheSEDAR41assessmentishighlyrelevantastheredsnapperstockisdepletedandundergoingrebuildingunderamoratoriumwithlimitedlandingspermittedandmostcatchesbeingdiscarded.Thedataandassessmentprovidethebestmeansofestablishingtherateofrecoveryofthestock,determiningifmeasuresarepreventingoverfishing,andprovidinginformationthatcanbeusedtoadjustmanagementactionswhereappropriate.Inclusiveness:TheSEDAR41assessmentincludesalldatathathavebeenqualityassuredandprovedadequateforuseintheassessment.ThisincludesdatafromState,aswellasFederal,samplingschemeswhereneeded,forexampletoestimatediscardsduringthemini-seasonwhereMRIPsamplingistoolimitedforsuchashortseasonlength.Objectivity:TheSEDAR41BAMBAMisahighlyobjectiveprocedurebasedonwell-testedassessmentmodelingprinciples,andusingdatasetsandassumptionsthathavebeenrigorouslydocumentedandreviewedthroughtheSEDARdata,assessmentandpeer-reviewprocess.Wherefullyobjectivedecisionsaredifficulttomake,suchassomedecisionsonscenariosforhistoriccatcheswhereevidenceislacking,theuncertaintiesaroundthedecisionsmadehavebeenexploredandincludedinsensitivityanalysesandtheMonteCarloBootstrapevaluationofassessmentuncertainty.Transparency:Alloutputsofthedata,assessmentandreviewworkshopsinSEDAR41arefullydocumentedandpubliclyavailable.Thediscussionsatthereviewworkshoparealsorecordedforrecord.Alldatasetsarethoroughlyexploredandthequalityofdataonwhichtheassessmentisbasedisdocumentedandtransparent,asarealldecisionsrelatedtothechoiceofassessmentmodel,howitisimplemented,andtheresultsofthebaserunandsensitivityanduncertaintyanalyses.Timeliness:TheSEDARprocessingeneralisarrangedtoprovidetimelyfisherymanagementadvicewhereitisneeded,andtoensurethatassessmentsarebenchmarkedandreviewedatappropriateintervals.Verification:TheSEDAR41assessmentprocessanddeliverablescomplywithlegalrequirementsundertheMagnusonStevensAct(2007)fordevelopingandmonitoringoffisherymanagementplansandprovidinginformationonstockstatus.Validation:TheSEDAR41processisdesignedtomeettheneedsoffisherymanagersforpeer-reviewedstockassessmentsandassociatedadviceonstockstatusandfuturecatches,andtheprocessisopenandfullytransparenttothefisherymanagersandtostakeholdersfromcommercialandrecreationalfisheries,conservationgroupsorotherswithastakeintheoutcomesandwhohaveopportunitytogivetheirviewsonrecord.Peerreview:TheSEDAR41processincludesfullpeer-reviewbyexpertsappointedbytheCenterforIndependentExperts(CIE)andbyreviewersfromtheSAFMCSSC.ThereviewpanelreportandtheindependentCIEreviewsarepubliclyavailable.

TheReviewPanelconcludedthat,asconfigured,theSEDAR41graytriggerfishstockassessmentmodelcouldnotbeconsideredthebestscientificinformationavailable.

8. CompareandcontrastassessmentuncertaintiesbetweentheGulfofMexicoandSouthAtlanticstocks.RedsnapperBoththeSouthAtlanticandGulfofMexicoredsnapperstockassessmentshavemultipleuncertainties.Thetablebelowsummarizesthesignificantsourcesofassessmentuncertaintyinthepopulation,datasources,andassessmentmethodsforbothstocks.

SourcesofUncertainty

SouthAtlantic(SEDAR41) GulfofMexico(SEDAR31)

Population

• Juvenilelifehistory,includingthelocationofjuvenilesbeforetheyrecruittothefishery

• Spatialdistribution(horizontalandvertical)oflargeadultRedSnapper

• Variabilityinbatchfecundityandspawningfrequencywithsizeandage

• Effectsofenvironmentalvariationonchangesinrecruitment

• Density-dependentchangesingrowth,reproduction,andnaturalmortality

• PopulationstructureandconnectivitybetweeneasternandwesternGulf(forbothadultsandjuveniles)

• Theuseandeffectofartificialreefstructuresonredsnapperpopulationabundance,ageandlengthcomposition,andspatialdistributioneffectsofenvironmentalvariationonchangesinrecruitment

• Density-dependentchangesingrowth,reproduction,andnaturalmortality

DataSources

• Limitedfisheryindependentindicesofabundance

• Nofisheryindependentindexofabundanceforearlyjuveniles

• Changesinselectivity,catch,anddiscarddataduetochangesinfisherbehaviorwithinandoutsidethemini-season

• Limitedfisheryindependentindexofabundanceforearlyjuveniles

• Limitedinformationonthemagnitude,size,andagecompositionofdiscards

• Poorly-informedselectivityfunctionsformostfleets

ItwasnotpossibletocompletethisToRforgraytriggerfishbecausetheSEDAR41stockassessmentcouldnotbesuccessfullycompleted(i.e.,manyoftheassessmentuncertaintiescouldnotbefullyevaluated).

9. Provideguidanceonkeyimprovementsindataormodelingapproacheswhichshouldbe

consideredwhenschedulingthenextassessment.Redsnapper

Inadditiontotheresultsfromtheresearchrecommendations(TOR6),additionalinformationshouldbeprovidedonhowremovalsandfishingmortalityaredistributedbyageforbothlandingsanddiscardsacrossthedifferentcommercialandrecreationalfleets.Thiskindofinformationmayprovideinsightintopossibleontogeneticspatialpatternsthatcouldbeusefulforassessingtheimpactofmini-seasonsandothermanagementactionsonthepopulation.Ifpatternsarediscernable,theymayprovidepossiblealternativesforweightingthedifferentfisherydependentabundanceindicesassociatedwiththelandingsordiscards.

Graytriggerfish

ThemajorkeyimprovementthatwillberequiredforthenextassessmentisanunderstandingofhowtheCVIDsurveytracksabundance.Theresearchrecommendations(TOR6)listanumberofpotentialresearchareasthatmayofferinsightsintotherelationshipbetweenSouthAtlanticgraytriggerfishandthissurvey.

• Poorinformationonthemagnitude,size,andagecompositionofdiscards

• Poorly-informedselectivityfunctionsformostfleets

AssessmentMethods

• UninformativeStock-Recruitmentrelationship(hadtouseproxyreferencepoints)

• Uncertaintyforcertainparametersanddatainputswasfixedtochosenvaluesthatcouldbeconsideredarbitrary(e.g.,CVforlandingsanddiscardsset=0.05)

• ModeluncertaintywasmainlyexploredbyrunninganalternativeStockProductionModel

• UninformativeStock-Recruitmentrelationship(hadtouseproxyreferencepoints)

• Uncertaintyforcertainparametersanddatainputswasfixedtochosenvaluesthatcouldbeconsideredarbitrary(e.g.,CVforlandingsset=0.05andfordiscards=0.5)

• Modeluncertaintywasnotexplicitlyexploredbytheuseofdifferentmodels

10. PrepareaPeerReviewSummarysummarizingthePanel’sevaluationofthestockassessmentandaddressingeachTermofReference.Developalistoftaskstobecompletedfollowingtheworkshop.CompleteandsubmitthePeerReviewSummaryReportinaccordancewiththeprojectguidelines.

ThesummarygroupreportfortheReviewPanelwassubmittedonApril15,2016.ThisindependentpeerreviewreportwassubmittedonApril21,2016.

ConclusionsandRecommendations

Theresultsoftheage-basedmodelforSouthAtlanticRedSnapperindicatethatthestockisoverfishedandoverfishingisoccurring.Whilethecurrentlevelsofabundanceareatthehighestsincethemid-1960s,thepopulationin2014consistedmainlyofages1–4years(96%bynumber).Asaresult,thecurrentpopulationbiomassislessthanexpectedatSSBF30%duetothelackofolderfish.Thefindingforoverfishingwasmadedespitethefactthatthefisheryhasbeenundermoratoriumsince2010.However,themoratoriumhasnotresultedinacompleteclosureastherehavebeenlimitedopeningsormini-seasonsin2012,2013and2014.Inaddition,alargeportionoftheremovalssince2010havebeenduetodiscardsespeciallyinthegeneralrecreationalfishery.AnnualfishingmortalityhasbeenmonitoredbyapicalFwhichwillbebasedondifferentagesovertimeasafunctionofthedifferingcontributionoffleetsandfleetselectivities.ApicalFdefinitelyshowsalargedecreaseinfishingmortalityfrom2009to2010,correspondingtothesettingofthemoratorium;however,fishingmortalityincreasesthereaftertowhereitisnowexceedingFF30%in2014.Thisincreaseinfishingmortalityappearstobeconfinedtoages4+onlyasthefishingmortalityfortheyoungeragesremainslow.PopulationestimatesforolderfishwereindexedbytheCVIDsurveyandtheassumedflat-toppedselectivitycurve.Researchrecommendationsweremadetoinvestigatethespatialdistributionofredsnapperbysizetodetermineifthelargerfishwerevulnerabletobeingcaughtbythetraps.Also,theadditionofalonglinesurveytosampleabroadsizerangeoffishwasalsorecommended.Underthecurrentmanagementregime,discardswillcontinuetobeasormoreimportantthanlandingsasremovalsfromthepopulation;however,discarddataprovidelessreliableestimatesthanlandingdata.Researchrecommendationsweremadetoimprovethesizecompositionestimatesforthediscards,inparticularforthegeneralrecreationaldiscardsforwhichnodirectsizecompositionsestimateswereavailable.TheReviewPanelreviewedtheBAMbasemodelforgraytriggerfish.Thebasemodelestimatedverylowlevelsofabundanceintheinitialyearsof1988and1989atatimewhenexploitationwasexpectedtobequitelow.Thisbehaviorappearedtobeaconsequenceoftheclosefittothelow1990CVIDsurveypoint,duetothesixtimesup-weightingalongwiththeassumedselectivityfortheCVID.AdditionalrunstoestablishabasecasewiththecorrectedCVIDagecompositionsandremovinglengthcompositionswhenagecompositionswereavailableresultedinpoorfitstotheheadboatandCVIDagecompositions.TheReviewPanelrecommendsthatfurthermodelingisneededtomodelthecorrecteddataappropriatelygiventhemagnitudeofchangestothedata,resultsandmodeldiagnosticsfromtheAssessmentWorkshopbasemodel,aswellasconcernsaboutoverfittingthesurvey.Researchrecommendationswereprovidedtoexploreforpossiblespatialreasonsfortheweakrelationshipbetweenageandlength,aswellas

furtherinvestigationoftheCVIDsurveyserieswithrespecttothe1990observation,evidencefortrackingcohortsandthepossibleeffectsofgearsaturation.

Appendix1:Bibliographyofmaterialsprovidedforreview

SEDAR41SouthAtlanticRedSnapperandGrayTriggerfish

WorkshopDocumentListDocument# Title Authors

DocumentsPreparedfortheDataWorkshop(DW)SEDAR41-DW01 UPDATED:GeorgiaHeadboatRedSnapperCatchand

EffortData,1983-2013AmickandKnowlton2014

SEDAR41-DW02 UPDATED:GeorgiaRedSnapperCatch&EffortCollectionduringMini-Seasons,2012-2014

Knowlton2015

SEDAR41-DW03 StandardizedvideocountsofSoutheastU.S.Atlanticgraytriggerfish(Balistescapriscus)fromtheSoutheastReefFishSurvey**SeeSEDAR41-DW44forindexupdatedthrough2014

Purcelletal.2014

SEDAR41-DW04 StandardizedvideocountsofSoutheastU.S.Atlanticredsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)fromtheSoutheastReefFishSurvey**SeeSEDAR41-DW45forindexupdatedthrough2014

Purcelletal.2014

SEDAR41-DW05 GrayTriggerfishFishery-IndependentIndicesofAbundanceinUSSouthAtlanticWatersBasedonaChevronTrapSurvey**SeeSEDAR41-DW52forindexrecommendedfrom2015DW

Ballengeretal.2014

SEDAR41-DW06 RedSnapperFishery-IndependentIndicesofAbundanceinUSSouthAtlanticWatersBasedonaChevronTrapSurvey**SeeSEDAR41-DW53andSEDAR41-DW54forindexrecommendationsfrom2015DW

Ballengeretal.2014

SEDAR41-DW07 AgeTruncationandReproductiveResilienceofRedSnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)AlongtheEastCoastofFlorida(hassincebeenpublished–seeSEDAR41-RD57)

Lowerre-Barbierietal.2014

SEDAR41-DW08 Theutilityofahookedgearsurveyindevelopingafisheries-independentindexofabundanceforredsnapperalongFlorida’sAtlanticcoast

Guentheretal.2014

SEDAR41-DW09 Sizeandagecompositionofredsnapper,Lutjanuscampechanus,collectedinassociationwithfishery-independentandfishery-dependentprojectsoffofFlorida’sAtlanticcoastduring2012and2013

Switzeretal.2014

SEDAR41-DW10 OverviewofFlorida’sCooperativeEastCoastRedSnapperTaggingProgram,2011-2013

Brodieetal.2014

SEDAR41-DW11 HabitatmodelsforGrayTriggerfishcollectedinfishery-independenttrapsurveysoffthesoutheasternUnitedStates

Muhlingetal.2014

SEDAR41-DW12 UPDATED:PreliminarystandardizedcatchratesofSoutheastUSAtlanticredsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)fromheadboatlogbookdata

SFB-NMFS2015

SEDAR41-DW13 UPDATED:PreliminarystandardizedcatchratesofSoutheastUSAtlanticgraytriggerfish(Balistescapriscus)fromheadboatlogbookdata

SFB-NMFS2015

SEDAR41-DW14 UPDATED:Standardizedcatchratesofredsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)fromheadboatat-sea-observerdata

SFB-NMFS2015

SEDAR41-DW15 Standardizedcatchratesofgraytriggerfish(Balistescapriscus)fromheadboatat-sea-observerdata

SFB-NMFS2014

SEDAR41-DW16 UPDATED:ReportonLifeHistoryofSouthAtlanticGrayTriggerfish,Balistescapriscus,fromFishery-IndependentSources

Kolmosetal.2015

SEDAR41-DW17 UPDATED:EstimatesofHistoricRecreationalLandingsofRedSnapperintheSouthAtlanticUsingtheFHWARCensusMethod**SeeSEDAR41-AW07forupdated2015Addendum

Brennan2015

SEDAR41-DW18

UPDATED:SouthCarolinaRedSnapperCatchandBiologicalDataCollectionduringMini-Seasons,2012-2014

Dukes&Hiltz2015

SEDAR41-DW19 UPDATED:Standardizedcatchratesofredsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)inthesoutheastU.S.fromcommerciallogbookdata

SFB-NMFS2015

SEDAR41-DW20 UPDATED:Standardizedcatchratesofgraytriggerfish(Balistescapriscus)inthesoutheastU.S.fromcommerciallogbookdata

SFB-NMFS2015

SEDAR41-DW21 NorthCarolinaDivisionofMarineFisheriesRedSnapperCarcassCollections,2012-2013

NCDMF2014

SEDAR41-DW22 SEDAR41Redsnapperstockassessmentmustutilize“direct”estimatesofgearselectivity

BarileandNelson2014

SEDAR41-DW23 AtlanticRedSnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)FishingHistoryTimeline

Hudson2014

SEDAR41-DW24 AtlanticRedSnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)HistoricalFishingPictures

Hudson2014

SEDAR41-DW25 HistoricalFor-HireFishingVessels:SouthAtlanticFisheryManagementCouncil,1930’sto1985

Hudson2014

SEDAR41-DW26 SEDAR41AtlanticRedSnapperandGrayTriggerfishDataWorkshopHistoricalPhotographsofFor-HireVessels1930’sto1985

Hudson2014

SEDAR41-DW27 Redsnapperminiseasonad-hocworkinggroupreport

RedSnapperMiniSeasonAd-hocGroup2014

SEDAR41-DW28 RedSnapperLutjanuscampechanusinGulfofMexicoversussoutheastUSAtlanticOceanwaters:gapsinknowledgeandimplicationsformanagement

Rindoneetal.2014

SEDAR41-DW29 Discardsofredsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)fortheheadboatfisheryintheUSSouthAtlantic**SeeSEDAR41-AW01forupdatedHBdiscardsWP

FEB-NMFS2014

SEDAR41-DW30 Discardsofgraytriggerfish(Balistescapriscus)fortheheadboatfisheryintheUSSouthAtlantic**SeeSEDAR41-AW02forupdatedHBdiscardsWP

FEB-NMFS2014

SEDAR41-DW31 RedSnapperPreliminaryGeneticAnalysisTemporalGeneticDiversityTrendsintheSouthAtlanticBight

O’DonnellandDarden2014

SEDAR41-DW32 SCDNRCharterboatLogbookProgramData,1993-2013

Hiltz2014

SEDAR41-DW33 UPDATED:SizeDistribution,ReleaseCondition,andEstimatedDiscardMortalityofRedSnapperObservedinFor-HireRecreationalFisheriesintheSouthAtlantic

Saulsetal.2015

SEDAR41-DW34 UPDATED:SizeDistribution,ReleaseCondition,andEstimatedDiscardMortalityofGrayTriggerfishObservedinFor-HireRecreationalFisheriesintheSouthAtlantic

Saulsetal.2015

SEDAR41-DW35 UPDATED:MarineResourcesMonitoring,AssessmentandPredictionProgram:ReportonAtlanticRedSnapper,Lutjanuscampechanus,LifeHistoryfortheSEDAR41DataWorkshop

Whiteetal.2014Wyanskietal.2015

SEDAR41-DW36 UPDATED:DiscardsofRedSnapperCalculatedforCommercialVesselswithFederalFishingPermitsintheUSSouthAtlantic

McCarthy2015

SEDAR41-DW37 UPDATED:CalculatedDiscardsofGrayTriggerfishfromUSSouthAtlanticCommercialFishingVessels

McCarthy2015

SEDAR41-DW38 Historiccatchofredsnapperbyheadboatsthroughhistoricphotographanalysis

Grayetal.2014

SEDAR41-DW39 Indexreportcards IndexWorkingGroup2014

SEDAR41-DW40 ProblemswithHeadboatIndexofAbundanceConfoundsUseinSEDAR41RedSnapper

Nelsonetal.2014

SEDAR41-DW41 CommercialFishingTargetingChanges Fex2014SEDAR41-DW42 NEW:SouthAtlanticRedSnapper(Lutjanus

campechanus)monitoringinFlorida:Revisedrecreationalprivateboatmodeestimatesfor2012and2013mini-seasons,andnewprivateboatmodeestimatesforthe2014mini-season

Sauls2015

SEDAR41-DW43 NEW:HookSelectivityingraytriggerfishobservedinthefor-hirefisheryofftheAtlanticcoastofFlorida

GrayandSauls2015

SEDAR41-DW44 NEW:StandardizedvideocountsofSoutheastU.S.Atlanticgraytriggerfish(Balistescapriscus)fromtheSoutheastReefFishSurvey

Ballewetal.2015

SEDAR41-DW45 NEW:StandardizedvideocountsofSoutheastU.S.Atlanticredsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)fromtheSoutheastReefFishSurvey

Ballewetal.2015

SEDAR41-DW46 NEW:HeadboatDataEvaluation NMFS-SEFSC2015SEDAR41-DW47 NEW:DevelopmentofanageingerrormatrixforU.S.

graytriggerfish(Balistescapriscus)SFB-NMFS2015

SEDAR41-DW48 NEW:DevelopmentofanageingerrormatrixforU.S.redsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)

SFB-NMFS2015

SEDAR41-DW49 NEW:Estimatesofreproductiveactivityinredsnapperbysize,season,andtimeofdaywithnonlinearmodels

Klibansky2015

SEDAR41-DW50 NEW:HookSelectivityinredsnapperobservedinthefor-hirefisheryofftheAtlanticcoastofFlorida

GrayandSauls2015

SEDAR41-DW51 NEW:SERFSChevronTrapRedSnapperIndexofAbundance:AnInvestigationoftheUtilityofHistorical(1990-2009)ChevronTrapCatchData

Ballenger2015

SEDAR41-DW52 NEW:GrayTriggerfishFishery-IndependentIndexofAbundanceinUSSouthAtlanticWatersBasedonaChevronTrapSurvey(1990-2014)

BallengerandSmart2015

SEDAR41-DW53 NEW:RedSnapperFishery-IndependentIndexofAbundanceinUSSouthAtlanticWatersBasedonaChevronTrapSurvey(2005-2014)


SEDAR41-DW54 NEW:RedSnapperFishery-IndependentIndexofAbundanceinUSSouthAtlanticWatersBasedonaChevronTrapSurvey(2010-2014)


DocumentsPreparedfortheAssessmentWorkshop

SEDAR41-AW01 AddendumtoSEDAR41-DW29:Discardsofredsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)fortheheadboatfisheryintheUSSouthAtlantic

FEB-NMFS2015

SEDAR41-AW02 AddendumtoSEDAR41-DW30:Discardsofgraytriggerfish(Balistescapriscus)fortheheadboatfisheryintheUSSouthAtlantic

FEB-NMFS2015

SEDAR41-AW03 SouthAtlanticU.S.redsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)ageandlengthcompositionfromtherecreationalfisheries

FEB-NMFS2015

SEDAR41-AW04 SouthAtlanticU.S.graytriggerfish(Balistescapriscus)ageandlengthcompositionfromtherecreationalfisheries

FEB-NMFS2015

SEDAR41-AW05 CommercialageandlengthcompositionweightingsforAtlanticRedSnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)

SFB-NMFS2015

SEDAR41-AW06 CommercialageandlengthcompositionweightingsforAtlanticGrayTriggerfish(Balistescapriscus)

SFB-NMFS2015

SEDAR41-AW07 AddendumtoSEDAR41-DW17:EstimatesofHistoricRecreationalLandingsofRedSnapperintheSouthAtlanticUsingtheFHWARCensusMethod

Brennan2015

SEDAR41-AW08 SouthAtlanticU.S.redsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)catchcurveanalysis

SFB-NMFS2015

DocumentsPreparedfortheReviewWorkshop

SEDAR41-RW01 AddendumtoSEDAR41-DW16:ReportonLifeHistoryofSouthAtlanticGrayTriggerfish,Balistescapriscus,fromFishery-IndependentSources:UPDATEonanalysesofmaturity,spawningfraction,andsexratio

Kolmosetal.2016

SEDAR41-RW02 Agestructuredproductionmodel(ASPM)forU.S.SouthAtlanticRedSnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)

SFB-NMFS2016

SEDAR41-RW03 Agestructuredproductionmodel(ASPM)forU.S.SouthAtlanticGrayTriggerfish(Balistescapriscus)

SFB-NMFS2016

SEDAR41-RW04 RedSnapper:AdditionalBAMdiagnostics,analyses,andcode

SFB-NMFS2016

SEDAR41-RW05 ModelDiagnosticsandSourceCodeforSEDAR41GrayTriggerfish(Balistescapriscus)BenchmarkStockAssessment

SFB-NMFS2016

SEDAR41-RW06 SEDAR41:PublicComments VariousAuthors

FinalAssessmentReports

SEDAR41-SAR1 AssessmentofRedSnapperintheUSSouthAtlantic TobepreparedbySEDAR41

SEDAR41-SAR2 AssessmentofGrayTriggerfishintheUSSouthAtlantic

TobepreparedbySEDAR41

ReferenceDocumentsSEDAR41-RD01 ListofdocumentsandworkingpapersforSEDAR32

(SouthAtlanticBluelineTilefishandGrayTriggerfish)–alldocumentsavailableontheSEDARwebsite.

SEDAR32

SEDAR41-RD02 ListofdocumentsandworkingpapersforSEDAR9(GulfofMexicoGrayTriggerfish,GreaterAmberjack,andVermilionSnapper)–alldocumentsavailableontheSEDARwebsite.

SEDAR9

SEDAR41-RD03 2011GulfofMexicoGrayTriggerfishUpdateAssessment

SEDAR2011

SEDAR41-RD04 ListofdocumentsandworkingpapersforSEDAR24(SouthAtlanticredsnapper)–alldocumentsavailableontheSEDARwebsite.

SEDAR24

SEDAR41-RD05 ListofdocumentsandworkingpapersforSEDAR31(GulfofMexicoredsnapper)–alldocumentsavailableontheSEDARwebsite.

SEDAR31

SEDAR41-RD06 ListofdocumentsandworkingpapersforSEDAR15(SouthAtlanticredsnapperandgreateramberjack)–alldocumentsavailableontheSEDARwebsite.

SEDAR15

SEDAR41-RD07 2009GulfofMexicoredsnapperupdateassessment SEDAR2009SEDAR41-RD08 ListofdocumentsandworkingpapersforSEDAR7

(GulfofMexicoredsnapper)–alldocumentsavailableontheSEDARwebsite.

SEDAR7

SEDAR41-RD09 SEDAR24SouthAtlanticRedSnapper:managementquantitiesandprojectionsrequestedbytheSSCandSERO

NMFS-SustainableFisheriesBranch2010

SEDAR41-RD10 Totalremovalsofredsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)in2012fromtheUSSouthAtlantic


SEDAR41-RD11 Amendment17AtotheFisheryManagementPlanfortheSnapperGrouperFisheryoftheSouthAtlanticRegion

SAFMC2010

SEDAR41-RD12 Amendment28totheFisheryManagementPlanfortheSnapperGrouperFisheryoftheSouthAtlanticRegion

SAFMC2013

SEDAR41-RD13 Totalremovalsofredsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)in2013fromtheU.S.SouthAtlantic


SEDAR41-RD14 SouthAtlanticredsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)monitoringinFloridaforthe2012season

Saulsetal.2013

SEDAR41-RD15 SouthAtlanticredsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)monitoringinFloridaforthe2013season

Saulsetal.2014

SEDAR41-RD16 AdirectedstudyoftherecreationalredsnapperfisheriesintheGulfofMexicoalongtheWestFloridashelf

Saulsetal.2014

SEDAR41-RD17 Usinggeneralizedlinearmodelstoestimateselectivityfromshort-termrecoveriesoftaggedreddrumSciaenopsocellatus:Effectsofgear,fate,andregulationperiod

Bacheleretal.2009

SEDAR41-RD18 Directestimatesofgearselectivityfrommultipletaggingexperiments

MyersandHoenig1997

SEDAR41-RD19 Examiningtheutilityofalternativevideomonitoringmetricsforindexingreeffishabundance

Schoberndetal.2014

SEDAR41-RD20 AnevaluationandpoweranalysisoffisheryindependentreeffishsamplingintheGulfofMexicoandU.S.SouthAtlantic

Conn2011

SEDAR41-RD21 Consultant’sReport:SummaryoftheMRFSS/MRIPCalibrationWorkshop

Boreman2012

SEDAR41-RD22 2013SouthAtlanticRedSnapperAnnualCatchLimitandSeasonLengthProjections

SERO2013

SEDAR41-RD23 SoutheastReefFishSurveyVideoIndexDevelopmentWorkshop

BachelerandCarmichael2014

SEDAR41-RD24 ObserverCoverageofthe2010-2011GulfofMexicoReefFishFishery

Scott-DentonandWilliams

SEDAR41-RD25 CircleHookRequirementsintheGulfofMexico:ApplicationinRecreationalFisheriesandEffectivenessforConservationofReefFishes

SaulsandAyala2012

SEDAR41-RD26 GADNRMarineSportfishCarcassRecoveryProject Harrell2013SEDAR41-RD27 CatchCharacterizationandDiscardswithinthe

SnapperGrouperVerticalHook-and-LineFisheryoftheSouthAtlanticUnitedStates

GulfandSouthAtlanticFisheriesFoundation2008

SEDAR41-RD28 AContinuationofCatchCharacterizationandDiscardswithintheSnapperGrouperVerticalHook-and-LineFisheryoftheSouthAtlanticUnitedStates


SEDAR41-RD29 ContinuationofCatchCharacterizationandDiscardswithintheSnapperGrouperVerticalHook-and-LineFisheryoftheSouthAtlanticUnitedStates


SEDAR41-RD30 Amendment1andEnvironmentalAssessmentandRegulatoryImpactReviewtotheFishery

SAFMC1988

ManagementPlanfortheSnapperGrouperFisheryoftheSouthAtlanticRegion

SEDAR41-RD31 FinalRuleforAmendment1totheFisheryManagementPlanfortheSnapperGrouperFisheryoftheSouthAtlanticRegion

FederalRegister1989

SEDAR41-RD32 PopulationStructureandGeneticDiversityofRedSnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)intheU.S.SouthAtlanticandConnectivitywithRedSnapperintheGulfofMexico

GoldandPortnoy2013

SEDAR41-RD33 OogenesisandfecunditytypeofGulfofMexicograytriggerfishreflectswarmwaterenvironmentalandparentalcare

LangandFitzhugh2014

SEDAR41-RD34 Depth-relatedDistributionofPostjuvenileRedSnapperinSoutheasternU.S.AtlanticOceanWaters:OntogeneticPatternsandImplicationsforManagement

Mitchelletal.2014

SEDAR41-RD35 GrayTriggerfishAgeWorkshop Potts2013SEDAR41-RD36 Age,Growth,andReproductionofGrayTriggerfish

BalistescapriscusOfftheSoutheasternU.S.AtlanticCoast

Kelly2014

SEDAR41-RD37 AssessmentofGeneticStockStructureofGrayTriggerfish(Balistescapriscus)inU.S.WatersoftheGulfofMexicoandSouthAtlanticRegions

SaillantandAntoni2014

SEDAR41-RD38 GeneticVariationofGrayTriggerfishinU.S.WatersoftheGulfofMexicoandWesternAtlanticOceanasInferredfromMitochondrialDNASequences

Antonietal.2011

SEDAR41-RD39 CharacterizationoftheU.S.GulfofMexicoandSouthAtlanticPenaeidandRockShrimpFisheriesBasedonObserverData

Scott-Dentonetal.2012

SEDAR41-RD40 Doeshooktypeinfluencethecatchrate,size,andinjuryofgrouperinaNorthCarolinacommercialfishery

BachelerandBuckel2004

SEDAR41-RD41 FishesassociatedwithNorthCarolinashelf-edgehardbottomsandinitialassessmentofaproposedmarineprotectedarea

QuattriniandRoss2006

SEDAR41-RD42 Growthofgreytriggerfish,Balistescapriscus,basedongrowthchecksofthedorsalspine

Ofori-Danson1989

SEDAR41-RD43 AgeValidationandGrowthofGrayTriggerfish,Balistescapriscus,IntheNorthernGulfofMexico

Fioramonti2012

SEDAR41-RD44 AreviewofthebiologyandfisheryforGrayTriggerfish,Balistescapriscus,intheGulfofMexico

HarperandMcClellan1997

SEDAR41-RD45 Stockstructureofgraytriggerfish,Balistescapriscus,onmultiplespatialscalesintheGulfofMexico

Ingram2001

SEDAR41-RD46 EvaluationoftheEfficacyoftheCurrentMinimumSizeRegulationforSelectedReefFishBasedonReleaseMortalityandFishPhysiology

BurnsandBrown-Peterson2008

SEDAR41-RD47 PopulationStructureofRedSnapperfromtheGulfofMexicoasInferredfromAnalysisofMitochondrialDNA

Goldetal.1997

SEDAR41-RD48 SuccessfulDiscriminationUsingOtolithMicrochemistryAmongSamplesofRedSnapperLutjanuscampechanusfromArtificialReefsandSamplesofL.campechanusTakenfromNearbyOilandGasPlatforms

Nowlingetal.2011

SEDAR41-RD49 PopulationStructureandVariationinRedSnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)fromtheGulfofMexicoandAtlanticCoastofFloridaasDeterminedfromMitochondrialDNAControlRegionSequence

Garberetal.2003

SEDAR41-RD50 PopulationassessmentoftheredsnapperfromthesoutheasternUnitedStates

Manoochetal.1998

SEDAR41-RD51 OtolithMicrochemicalFingerprintsofAge-0RedSnapper,Lutjanuscampechanus,fromtheNorthernGulfofMexico

Pattersonetal.1998

SEDAR41-RD52 ImplicationsofreeffishmovementfromunreportedartificialreefsitesinthenorthernGulfofMexico

Addisetal.2013

SEDAR41-RD53 Evaluatingthepredictiveperformanceofempiricalestimatorsofnaturalmortalityrateusinginformationonover200fishspecies

Thenetal.2014

SEDAR41-RD54 Lengthselectivityofcommercialfishtrapsassessedfrominsitucomparisonswithstereo-video:Isthereevidenceofsamplingbias?

Langloisetal.2015

SEDAR41-RD55 MRIPCalibrationWorkshopII–FinalReport CarmichaelandVanVorhees(eds.)2015

SEDAR41-RD56 TotalRemovalsofredsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)in2014fromtheU.S.SouthAtlantic

SEFSC2015

SEDAR41-RD57 Assessingreproductiveresilience:anexamplewithSouthAtlanticredsnapperLutjanuscampechanus

Lowerre-Barbiereetal.2015

SEDAR41-RD58 OverviewofsamplinggearsandstandardprotocolsusedbytheSoutheastReefFishSurveyanditspartners

Smartetal.2014

SEDAR41-RD59 MRIPTransitionPlanfortheFishingEffortSurvey AtlanticandGulfSubgroupoftheMRIPTransitionTeam2015

SEDAR41-RD60 TechnicaldocumentationoftheBeaufortAssessmentModel(BAM)

WilliamsandShertzer2015

SEDAR41-RD61 StockAssessmentofRedSnapperintheGulfofMexico1872-2013,withProvisional2014Landings:SEDARUpdateAssessment

Cass-Calayetal.2015

SEDAR41-RD62 ExcerptfromtheDecember2013SAFMCSEDARCommitteeMinutes(pages11-21whereSEDAR41ToRwerediscussed)

SAFMCSEDARCommittee

SEDAR41-RD63 Populationstructureofredsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)inU.S.watersofthewesternAtlanticOceanandthenortheasternGulfofMexico

Hollenbecketal.2015

SEDAR41-RD64 SEDAR31-AW04:TheEffectofHookTypeonRedSnapperCatch

SaulandWalter2013

SEDAR41-RD65 SEDAR31-AW12:Estimationofhookselectivityonredsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)duringafisheryindependentsurveyofnaturalreefsintheGulfofMexico

Pollacketal.2013

SEDAR41-RD66 EffectofCircleHookSizeonReefFishCatchRates,SpeciesComposition,andSelectivityintheNorthernGulfofMexicoRecreationalFishery

Pattersonetal.2012

SEDAR41-RD67 Effectoftrawlingonjuvenileredsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)habitatselectionandlifehistoryparameters

Wellsetal.2008

SEDAR41-RD68 SEDAR24-AW05:SelectivityofredsnapperinthesoutheastU.S.Atlantic:dome-shapedorflattopped?

SFB-SEFSC2010

SEDAR41-RD69 Hierarchicalanalysisofmultiplenoisyabundanceindices

Conn2010

SEDAR41-RD70 Dataweightinginstatisticalfisheriesstockassessmentmodels

Francis2011

SEDAR41-RD71 CorrigendumtoFrancis2011paper FrancisSEDAR41-RD72 Quantifyingannualvariationincatchabilityfor

commercialandresearchfishingFrancisetal.2003

SEDAR41-RD73 Evolutionaryassemblyrulesforfishlifehistories Charnovetal.2012SEDAR41-RD74 User’sGuideforASPICSuite,version7:AStock-

ProductionModelIncorporatingCovariatesandauxiliaryprograms

Prager2015

SEDAR41-RD75 StandingandSpecialReefFishSSC,September2015MeetingSummary(seepages4-7forSEDAR43review)

GulfofMexicoStandingandSpecialReefFishSSC

SEDAR41-RD76 StandingandSpecialReefFishSSC,January2016MeetingSummary(seepages2-7forSEDAR43review)


SEDAR41-RD77 SEDAR43GulfofMexicoGrayTriggerfishStockAssessmentReport

SEDAR43

SEDAR41-RD78 Reviewof2014SEDAR31GulfofMexicoRedSnapperUpdateAssessment


SEDAR41-RD79 Influenceofsoaktimeandfishaccumulationoncatchesofreeffishesinamultispeciestrapsurvey

Bacheleretal.2013

Additionalpapers:

Aanes,S.,andJ.H.Vølstad.2015.Efficientstatisticalestimatorsandsamplingstrategiesforestimatingtheagecompositionoffish.CanadianJournalofFisheriesandAquaticSciences,72:938–953.

Anderson,B.,E.Borgonovo,M.GaleottiandR.Roson.2011.Uncertaintyinintegratedassessment

modelling:Canglobalsensitivityanalysisbeofhelp?WorkingPaperSeries.WorkingPaper52.ISSN1973-0381.IEFE-TheCenterforResearchonEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicyatBocconiUniversity.Thispapercanbedownloadedatwww.iefe.unibocconi.it

Kaufman,L.S.1983.EffectsofHurricaneAllenonreeffishassemblagesnearDiscoveryBay,Jamaica.

CoralReefs.2:43–47.Saltelli,A.,andP.Annoni.2010,Howtoavoidaperfunctorysensitivityanalysis.Environmental

Modelling&Software25:1508–1517.Saltelli,A.,M.Ratto,T.Andres,F.Campolongo,J.Cariboni,D.Gatelli,M.Saisana,andS.Tarantola.

2008.GlobalSensitivityAnalysis-ThePrimer.JohnWiley&Sons.Chichester.

Appendix2:CIEStatementofWork

ExternalIndependentPeerReviewbytheCenterforIndependentExperts


ScopeofWorkandCIEProcess:TheNationalMarineFisheriesService’s(NMFS)OfficeofScienceandTechnologycoordinatesandmanagesacontractprovidingexternalexpertisethroughtheCenterforIndependentExperts(CIE)toconductindependentpeerreviewsofNMFSscientificprojects.TheStatementofWork(SoW)describedhereinwasestablishedbytheNMFSProjectContactandContractingOfficer’sTechnicalRepresentative(COTR),andreviewedbyCIEforcompliancewiththeirpolicyforprovidingindependentexpertisethatcanprovideimpartialandindependentpeerreviewwithoutconflictsofinterest.CIEreviewersareselectedbytheCIESteeringCommitteeandCIECoordinationTeamtoconducttheindependentpeerreviewofNMFSscienceincompliancethepredeterminedTermsofReference(ToRs)ofthepeerreview.EachCIErevieweriscontractedtodeliveranindependentpeerreviewreporttobeapprovedbytheCIESteeringCommitteeandthereportistobeformattedwithcontentrequirementsasspecifiedinAnnex1.ThisSoWdescribestheworktasksanddeliverablesoftheCIEreviewerforconductinganindependentpeerreviewofthefollowingNMFSproject.FurtherinformationontheCIEprocesscanbeobtainedfromwww.ciereviews.org.ProjectDescription:SEDAR41willbeacompilationofdata,anassessmentofthestocks,andCIEassessmentreviewconductedforSouthAtlanticredsnapperandgraytriggerfish.ThereviewworkshopprovidesanindependentpeerreviewofSEDARstockassessments.Thetermreviewisappliedbroadly,asthereviewpanelmayrequestadditionalanalyses,errorcorrectionsandsensitivityrunsoftheassessmentmodelsprovidedbytheassessmentpanel.ThereviewpanelisultimatelyresponsibleforensuringthatthebestpossibleassessmentisprovidedthroughtheSEDARprocess.ThestocksassessedthroughSEDAR41arewithinthejurisdictionoftheSouthAtlanticFisheriesManagementCouncilandthestatesofFlorida,Georgia,SouthCarolina,andNorthCarolina.TheTermsofReference(ToRs)ofthepeerreviewareattachedinAnnex2.ThetentativeagendaofthepanelreviewmeetingisattachedinAnnex3.RequirementsforCIEReviewers:ThreeCIEreviewersshallconductanimpartialandindependentpeerreviewinaccordancewiththeSoWandToRsherein.CIEreviewersshallhaveworkingknowledgeexpertiseinstockassessment,statistics,fisheriesscience,andmarinebiologysufficienttocompletetheprimarytaskofprovidingpeer-reviewadviceincompliancewiththeworkshopTermsofReference.EachCIEreviewer’sdutiesshallnotexceedamaximumof14daystocompleteallworktasksofthepeerreviewdescribedherein.LocationofPeerReview:EachCIEreviewershallconductanindependentpeerreviewduringthepanelreviewmeetingscheduledinCharleston,SCduringMarch15-18,2016.StatementofTasks:EachCIEreviewersshallcompletethefollowingtasksinaccordancewiththeSoWandScheduleofMilestonesandDeliverablesherein.PriortothePeerReview:UponcompletionoftheCIEreviewerselectionbytheCIESteeringCommittee,theCIEshallprovidetheCIEreviewerinformation(fullname,title,affiliation,country,address,email)totheCOTR,whoforwardsthisinformationtotheNMFSProjectContactnolaterthedatespecifiedintheScheduleofMilestonesandDeliverables.TheCIEisresponsibleforprovidingtheSoWandToRstotheCIEreviewers.TheNMFSProjectContactisresponsibleforprovidingtheCIEreviewerswiththe

backgrounddocuments,reports,foreignnationalsecurityclearance,andotherinformationconcerningpertinentmeetingarrangements.TheNMFSProjectContactisalsoresponsibleforprovidingtheChairacopyoftheSoWinadvanceofthepanelreviewmeeting.AnychangestotheSoWorToRsmustbemadethroughtheCOTRpriortothecommencementofthepeerreview.ForeignNationalSecurityClearance:WhenCIEreviewersparticipateduringapanelreviewmeetingatagovernmentfacility,theNMFSProjectContactisresponsibleforobtainingtheForeignNationalSecurityClearanceapprovalforCIEreviewerswhoarenon-UScitizens.Forthisreason,theCIEreviewersshallproviderequestedinformation(e.g.,firstandlastname,contactinformation,gender,birthdate,passportnumber,countryofpassport,traveldates,countryofcitizenship,countryofcurrentresidence,andhomecountry)totheNMFSProjectContactforthepurposeoftheirsecurityclearance,andthisinformationshallbesubmittedatleast30daysbeforethepeerreviewinaccordancewiththeNOAADeemedExportTechnologyControlProgramNAO207-12regulationsavailableattheDeemedExportsNAOwebsite:http://deemedexports.noaa.gov/http://deemedexports.noaa.gov/compliance_access_control_procedures/noaa-foreign-national-registration-system.htmlPre-reviewBackgroundDocuments:Twoweeksbeforethepeerreview,theNMFSProjectContactwillsend(byelectronicmailormakeavailableatanFTPsite)totheCIEreviewersthenecessarybackgroundinformationandreportsforthepeerreview.Inthecasewherethedocumentsneedtobemailed,theNMFSProjectContactwillconsultwiththeCIELeadCoordinatoronwheretosenddocuments.CIEreviewersareresponsibleonlyforthepre-reviewdocumentsthataredeliveredtothereviewerinaccordancetotheSoWscheduleddeadlinesspecifiedherein.TheCIEreviewersshallreadalldocumentsinpreparationforthepeerreview.PanelReviewMeeting:EachCIEreviewershallconducttheindependentpeerreviewinaccordancewiththeSoWandToRs,andshallnotserveinanyotherroleunlessspecifiedherein.ModificationstotheSoWandToRscannotbemadeduringthepeerreview,andanySoWorToRsmodificationspriortothepeerreviewshallbeapprovedbytheCOTRandCIELeadCoordinator.EachCIEreviewershallactivelyparticipateinaprofessionalandrespectfulmannerasamemberofthemeetingreviewpanel,andtheirpeerreviewtasksshallbefocusedontheToRsasspecifiedherein.TheNMFSProjectContactisresponsibleforanyfacilityarrangements(e.g.,conferenceroomforpanelreviewmeetingsorteleconferencearrangements).TheNMFSProjectContactisresponsibleforensuringthattheChairunderstandsthecontractualroleoftheCIEreviewersasspecifiedherein.TheCIELeadCoordinatorcancontacttheProjectContacttoconfirmanypeerreviewarrangements,includingthemeetingfacilityarrangements.CIEreviewersshallconductanimpartialandindependentpeerreviewoftheassessmentinaccordancewiththeSoWandToRsherein.AdescriptionoftheSEDARReviewprocesscanbefoundintheSEDARPoliciesandProceduresdocument:http://sedarweb.org/docs/page/SEDARPoliciesandProcedures_Oct14_FINAL.pdf

TheCIEreviewersmaycontributetoaSummaryReportoftheReviewWorkshopproducedbytheWorkshopPanel.

ContractDeliverables-IndependentCIEPeerReviewReports:EachCIEreviewershallcompleteanindependentpeerreviewreportinaccordancewiththeSoW.EachCIEreviewershallcompletetheindependentpeerreviewaccordingtorequiredformatandcontentasdescribedinAnnex1.EachCIEreviewershallcompletetheindependentpeerreviewaddressingeachToRasdescribedinAnnex2.OtherTasks–ContributiontoSummaryReport:EachCIEreviewermayassisttheChairofthepanelreviewmeetingwithcontributionstotheSummaryReport,basedonthetermsofreferenceofthereview.EachCIEreviewerisnotrequiredtoreachaconsensus,andshouldprovideabriefsummaryofthereviewer’sviewsonthesummaryoffindingsandconclusionsreachedbythereviewpanelinaccordancewiththeToRs.SpecificTasksforCIEReviewers:ThefollowingchronologicallistoftasksshallbecompletedbyeachCIEreviewerinatimelymannerasspecifiedintheScheduleofMilestonesandDeliverables.

1) Conductnecessarypre-reviewpreparations,includingthereviewofbackgroundmaterialandreportsprovidedbytheNMFSProjectContactinadvanceofthepeerreview.

2) ParticipateduringthepanelreviewmeetingattheCharleston,SCduringMarch15-18,2016.3) ParticipateatthereviewmeetinginCharleston,SCduringMarch15-18,2016asspecified

herein,andconductanindependentpeerreviewinaccordancewiththeToRs(Annex2).4) NolaterthanApril112016,eachCIEreviewershallsubmitanindependentpeerreviewreport

addressedtothe“CenterforIndependentExperts,”andsenttoDr.ManojShivlani,CIELeadCoordinator,[email protected],andDr.DavidSampson,CIERegionalCoordinator,viaemailtodavid.sampson@oregonstate.edu.EachCIEreportshallbewrittenusingtheformatandcontentrequirementsspecifiedinAnnex1,andaddresseachToRinAnnex2.

ScheduleofMilestonesandDeliverables:CIEshallcompletethetasksanddeliverablesdescribedinthisSoWinaccordancewiththefollowingschedule.

February9,2016 CIEsendsreviewercontactinformationtotheCOTR,whothensendsthistotheNMFSProjectContact

March1,2016 NMFSProjectContactsendstheCIEReviewersthepre-reviewdocumentsMarch15–18,

2016Eachreviewerparticipatesandconductsanindependentpeerreviewduringthepanelreviewmeeting

April11,2016 CIEreviewerssubmitdraftCIEindependentpeerreviewreportstotheCIELeadCoordinatorandCIERegionalCoordinator

April25,2016 CIEsubmitsCIEindependentpeerreviewreportstotheCOTRMay2,2016 TheCOTRdistributesthefinalCIEreportstotheNMFSProjectContactand

regionalCenterDirectorModificationstotheStatementofWork:This‘TimeandMaterials’taskordermayrequireanupdateormodificationduetopossiblechangestothetermsofreferenceorscheduleofmilestonesresultingfromthefisherymanagementdecisionprocessoftheNOAALeadership,FisheryManagementCouncil,andCouncil’sSSCadvisorycommittee.ArequesttomodifythisSoWmustbeapprovedbytheContractingOfficeratleast15workingdayspriortomakinganypermanentchanges.TheContractingOfficerwillnotifytheCOTRwithin10workingdaysafterreceiptofallrequiredinformationofthedecisiononchanges.TheCOTRcanapprovechangestothemilestonedates,listofpre-reviewdocuments,andToRs

withintheSoWaslongastheroleandabilityoftheCIEreviewerstocompletethedeliverableinaccordancewiththeSoWisnotadverselyimpacted.TheSoWandToRsshallnotbechangedoncethepeerreviewhasbegun.AcceptanceofDeliverables:UponreviewandacceptanceoftheCIEindependentpeerreviewreportsbytheCIELeadCoordinator,RegionalCoordinator,andSteeringCommittee,thesereportsshallbesenttotheCOTRforfinalapprovalascontractdeliverablesbasedoncompliancewiththeSoWandToRs.AsspecifiedintheScheduleofMilestonesandDeliverables,theCIEshallsendviae-mailthecontractdeliverables(CIEindependentpeerreviewreports)totheCOTR(AllenShimadaatallen.shimada@noaa.gov.ApplicablePerformanceStandards:ThecontractissuccessfullycompletedwhentheCOTRprovidesfinalapprovalofthecontractdeliverables.Theacceptanceofthecontractdeliverablesshallbebasedonthreeperformancestandards:

(1) TheCIEreportshallcompletedwiththeformatandcontentinaccordancewithAnnex1,(2) TheCIEreportshalladdresseachToRasspecifiedinAnnex2,(3) TheCIEreportsshallbedeliveredinatimelymannerasspecifiedinthescheduleofmilestones

anddeliverables.

DistributionofApprovedDeliverables:UponacceptancebytheCOTR,theCIELeadCoordinatorshallsendviae-mailthefinalCIEreportsin*.PDFformattotheCOTR.TheCOTRwilldistributetheCIEreportstotheNMFSProjectContactandCenterDirector.SupportPersonnel:AllenShimadaNMFSOfficeofScienceandTechnology1315EastWestHwy,SSMC3,F/ST4,SilverSpring,[email protected]:301-427-8174ManojShivlani,CIELeadCoordinatorNorthernTaigaVentures,Inc.10600SW131stCourt,Miami,[email protected]:305-968-7136KeyPersonnel:

NMFSProjectContact:

JuliaByrdSEDARCoordinator4055FaberPlaceDrive,Suite201NorthCharleston,SC29405(843)[email protected]

Annex1:FormatandContentsofCIEIndependentPeerReviewReport

1. TheCIEindependentreportshallbeprefacedwithanExecutiveSummaryprovidingaconcisesummaryofthefindingsandrecommendations,andspecifywhetherthesciencereviewedisthebestscientificinformationavailable.

2. ThemainbodyofthereviewerreportshallconsistofaBackground,DescriptionoftheIndividualReviewer’sRoleintheReviewActivities,SummaryofFindingsforeachToRinwhichtheweaknessesandstrengthsaredescribed,andConclusionsandRecommendationsinaccordancewiththeToRs.

a. Reviewersshoulddescribeintheirownwordsthereviewactivitiescompletedduringthepanelreviewmeeting,includingprovidingabriefsummaryoffindings,ofthescience,conclusions,andrecommendations.

b. ReviewersshoulddiscusstheirindependentviewsoneachToRevenifthesewereconsistentwiththoseofotherpanelists,andespeciallywherethereweredivergentviews.

c. ReviewersshouldelaborateonanypointsraisedintheSummaryReportthattheyfeelmightrequirefurtherclarification.

d. ReviewersshallprovideacritiqueoftheNMFSreviewprocess,includingsuggestionsforimprovementsofbothprocessandproducts.

e. TheCIEindependentreportshallbeastand-alonedocumentforotherstounderstandtheweaknessesandstrengthsofthesciencereviewed,regardlessofwhetherornottheyreadthesummaryreport.TheCIEindependentreportshallbeanindependentpeerreviewofeachToRs,andshallnotsimplyrepeatthecontentsofthesummaryreport.

3. Thereviewerreportshallincludethefollowingappendices:

Appendix1:BibliographyofmaterialsprovidedforreviewAppendix2:AcopyoftheCIEStatementofWorkAppendix3:PanelMembershiporotherpertinentinformationfromthepanelreviewmeeting.

Annex2:TermsofReferenceforthePeerReview


11. Evaluatethedatausedintheassessment,includingdiscussionofthestrengthsandweaknessesofdatasourcesanddecisions,andconsiderthefollowing:

a) AredatadecisionsmadebytheDWandAWsoundandrobust?b) Aredatauncertaintiesacknowledged,reported,andwithinnormalorexpectedlevels?c) Aredataappliedproperlywithintheassessmentmodel?d) Areinputdataseriesreliableandsufficienttosupporttheassessmentapproachand

findings?12. Evaluateanddiscussthestrengthsandweaknessesofthemethodsusedtoassessthestock,

takingintoaccounttheavailabledata,andconsideringthefollowing:a) Aremethodsscientificallysoundandrobust?

b) Areassessmentmodelsconfiguredproperlyandusedconsistentwithstandardpractices?

c) Arethemethodsappropriatefortheavailabledata?13. Evaluatetheassessmentfindingsandconsiderthefollowing:


b) Isthestockoverfished?Whatinformationhelpsyoureachthisconclusion?c) Isthestockundergoingoverfishing?Whatinformationhelpsyoureachthisconclusion?d) Isthereaninformativestockrecruitmentrelationship?Isthestockrecruitmentcurve

reliableandusefulforevaluationofproductivityandfuturestockconditions?e) Arethequantitativeestimatesofthestatusdeterminationcriteriaforthisstock


14. Evaluatethestockprojections,includingdiscussingstrengthsandweaknesses,andconsiderthefollowing:

a) Arethemethodsconsistentwithacceptedpracticesandavailabledata?b) Arethemethodsappropriatefortheassessmentmodelandoutputs?c) Aretheresultsinformativeandrobust,andaretheyusefultosupportinferencesof

probablefutureconditions?d) Arekeyuncertaintiesacknowledged,discussed,andreflectedintheprojectionresults?

15. Considerhowuncertaintiesintheassessment,andtheirpotentialconsequences,areaddressed.a) Commentonthedegreetowhichmethodsusedtoevaluateuncertaintyreflectand

capturethesignificantsourcesofuncertaintyinthepopulation,datasources,andassessmentmethods.

b) Ensurethattheimplicationsofuncertaintyintechnicalconclusionsareclearlystated.16. ConsidertheresearchrecommendationsprovidedbytheDataandAssessmentworkshopsand

makeanyadditionalrecommendationsorprioritizationswarranted.a) Clearlydenoteresearchandmonitoringthatcouldimprovethereliabilityof,and

informationprovidedby,futureassessments.b) ProviderecommendationsonpossiblewaystoimprovetheSEDARprocess.

17. Considerwhetherthestockassessmentconstitutesthebestscientificinformationavailableusingthefollowingcriteriaasappropriate:relevance,inclusiveness,objectivity,transparency,timeliness,verification,validation,andpeerreviewoffisherymanagementinformation.

18. CompareandcontrastassessmentuncertaintiesbetweentheGulfofMexicoandSouthAtlanticstocks.

19. Provideguidanceonkeyimprovementsindataormodelingapproacheswhichshouldbeconsideredwhenschedulingthenextassessment.

20. PrepareaPeerReviewSummarysummarizingthePanel’sevaluationofthestockassessmentandaddressingeachTermofReference.Developalistoftaskstobecompletedfollowingtheworkshop.CompleteandsubmitthePeerReviewSummaryReportinaccordancewiththeprojectguidelines.

Annex3:TentativeAgenda


Charleston,SC

March15-18,2016

Tuesday

8:30a.m. Convene 8:30a.m.–9:00a.m. IntroductionsandOpeningRemarks

-AgendaReview,TOR,TaskAssignmentsCoordinatorChair

9:00a.m.–12:00p.m. AssessmentPresentationandDiscussion(RS*)

TBD

12:00p.m.–1:30p.m. LunchBreak 1:30p.m.-3:30p.m. PanelDiscussion

-AssessmentData&Methods-Identifyadditionalanalyses,sensitivities,corrections

Chair

3:30p.m.–3:45p.m. Break 3:30p.m.-5:00p.m. PanelDiscussion

-ContinuedeliberationsChair

5:00p.m.–6:00p.m. PanelWorkSession Chair

TuesdayGoals:InitialRS*presentationcompleted,sensitivitiesandmodificationsidentified.

Wednesday

Tuesday

8:30a.m.–12:00p.m. AssessmentPresentationandDiscussion(GTF**)

TBD

12:00p.m.–1:30p.m. LunchBreak

1:30p.m.-3:30p.m. PanelDiscussion-AssessmentData&Methods-Identifyadditionalanalyses,sensitivities,corrections

Chair


-ContinuedeliberationsChair


WednesdayGoals:InitialGTF**presentationcompleted,sensitivitiesandmodificationsidentified.

Thursday

8:30a.m.–12:00p.m. PanelDiscussion-Reviewadditionalanalyses,sensitivities

Chair

12:00p.m.–1:30p.m. LunchBreak

1:30p.m.-3:30p.m. PanelDiscussion-Continuedeliberations

Chair


-ConsensusrecommendationsandcommentsChair


ThursdayGoals:Finalsensitivitiesidentified,preferredmodelsselected,projectionapproachesapproved,Summaryreportdraftsbegun.

Friday

8:30a.m.–10:30a.m. PanelDiscussion-Reviewadditionalanalyses,finalsensitivities-Projectionsreviewed.

Chair

10:30a.m.–10:45a.m. Break

10:45a.m.-1:00p.m. PanelDiscussionorWorkSession-Continuedeliberations

Chair


-ReviewConsensusReportsChair

1:00p.m. ADJOURN

FridayGoals:Completeassessmentworkanddiscussions.Finalresultsavailable.DraftSummaryReportreviewed.

*RS=SouthAtlanticredsnapper**GTF=SouthAtlanticgraytriggerfish

Appendix3:PanelMembership

Appointee Function AffiliationLuizBarbieri ReviewPanelChair SAFMCSSCSteveCadrin Reviewer SAFMCSSCChurchillGrimes Reviewer SAFMCSSCMikeArmstrong Reviewer CIEStephenSmith Reviewer CIEJonHelgeVolstad Reviewer CIE