2015 october 20-21hilton chicagodowntown

A. Elizabeth Sloan, Ph.D

President and CEO

Catherine Adams Hutt,

Ph.D., R.D., C.F.S.

Chief Science and Regulatory Officer

11:30am – Noon

Pet Health - How Going to the Dogs can Drive Business Success

Sloan Trends, Inc.

www.sloantrend.com

760-741-9611

A. Elizabeth Sloan, Ph.D.

Catherine Adams Hutt, Ph.D., R.D., C.F.S.

Petfood 2.0

Chicago, Illinois

Oct. 20, 2014

Pet Health - How Going to the Dogs Can

Drive Business Success

Supplements, Conditions

Re-defining Natural

Culinary Cues

12

34 Regulatory

Liz’s Winston & Churchill 100 Yrs

Young

Catherine’s Kids – Some of Them!

One I Wish Were Mine!

54% Households Parented Pets 2014;

More Households have Dogs > Kids, Yeah!

Owners Age

Type of Pet

• More pet owners HH > $100K

• 5 years; 3M more cats, 3.1M dogs

• 36% owners better off financially

• Uptick multiple pet HH

• Ownership up Millennials

% All US Households Own Pet

Minority Pet Owners

+17% 2010- 2014;

Hispanic #1,

Health Conscious,

Small Dogs

½ Pop. > Age 50 2019

Packaged Facts, U.S. Pet Market Outlook, 2015-16, April 2015; U.S. Census Bureau, Sloan Trends, Inc.

Humanization, Premiumization,

Health & Wellness, CustomizationProj. U.S. Pet Food Retail Channel Sales $29B → $35B by 2019

Billions $

Packaged Facts, U.S. Pet Market Outlook 4/2015

New Product TrialLast 6 Months Bought

New Pet Nutrition Brands

Dog Cat

Dry food 53% 53%

Can/wet 56% 61%

Treat 61% 57%

Share Pet Food Spending 2014

Primal Pet Foods Dog Alternative Proteins

Dollar Volume

FZ/RFG DOG FOOD 22.7% 23.7%

FZ/RFG CAT FOOD 21.6% 24.6%

CAT TREATS 7.7% 10.2%

DOG BISCUITS/TREATS/

BEVERAGES 6.4% 0.5%

WET CAT FOOD 1.5% 0.9%

WET DOG FOOD 1.2% 0.6%

RAWHIDE DOG CHEWS (0.7%) (3.5%)

SEMIMOIST DOG FOOD (0.7%) (1.6%)

DOG/CAT NEEDS (0.7%) (3.8%)

DRY CAT FOOD (1.3%) (1.2%)

DRY DOG FOOD (2.7%) (1.9%)

SEMIMOIST CAT FOOD (32.8%) (24.6%)

Pet Treats

On Fire!

$5.5B to

$7.3B 2019,

CAGR

6.1% to 2019

IRI MULO Data on Mass Market Dollar

Volume Pet Food Segments, 2014

Packaged Facts, U.S. Pet Market Outlook 4/2015; Packaged Facts, Pet Treats & Chews in the U.S. 6/2015

51% Dog, 44% Cat Pet Parents Bought

Specialty Pet Nutrition Products 2014

Packaged Facts, U.S. Pet Market Outlook 4/2015

Use Specialty Pet Nutrition Products, Type

2014

Natural Pet Segment Drives Category

% Top Reasons/Characteristics Buy Specialty Nutritional Formula Pet Food

Cat

Dog

Natural Pet Product Sales by Segment 2010-2019 Proj.

Packaged Facts, Pet Treats & Chews in the U.S. 6/2015

Re-Defining Natural 1

Fresh, Minimally Processed: Lifestyle

78% Strong Effort Eat Fresh > Processed

NPD Group, National Eating Trends, 2014; Technomic, Healthy Eating Consumer Trend Rpt, 2014; FMI, U.S. Grocery Shopper Trends, 2015; NRA, What’s Hot Chef Survey, 2014

+20%

Fresh Eatings +20% 10 Yrs,+6%

‘19

• 87% fresh = healthier, 80% tastier2

• 44% more fresh ingredients

• 47% cook more from scratch

• #5 hot culinary trend overall 2015

Fresh +7% to Outpace

Grocery 3%, Foodservice 4%

→2018

Consumer

LifestylesFood that is ____ is healthy…

30%

Stron

g

Effort

Eat

More

Fresh/Refrig, Frozen, Raw Pet

Niche, #1 Growth +24% Vol; Kick

the Can?

IRI multi-outlet (MULO), U.S. supermarkets, drugstores, mass merchandisers (Walmart, Target, Kmart, & Shopko), Sam’s Club, BJ’s warehouse clubs, dollar stores excl.

Dollar Tree, military commissaries; Packaged Facts, Natural, Organic & Eco-friendly Pet Products in the U.S. 10/2014; Campbell Soup Packaging Study, 2014

Dog

Cat

Fresh Ingredient

ClaimsIn-Store Placement,

Dairy, Meat, Fish Dept.

Bev →

Y/E 12/2014 - MULO

Nature’s

Variety

Frozen KibbleTechnology: HPP, Cryovac, Sous

vide?

Millennials Don’t Use Cans

100 = avg.

Raw Pet Foods $134M in 2014

Clean Food Label Mentions # Clean

Descriptors Bought Past 3 MonthsTotal

%

All natural, no artificial ingredients 30

Recognizable ingredients 30

No artificial preservatives 27

Organic 21

Short list of ingredients 21

Non-GMO 9

Gluten-free 11

IFIC, 2015 Food & Health Survey; 2013 Gallup Study of Clean Food & Beverage Labels; Technomic, Healthy Consumer Trend Report, 2014.

Chemicals #1 Fear +13%, No Artificial

43% Bought Clean Supplements, 70% Food

Concern Food Additives 2012-14

(Top 2 Box)

Food that is ____ is healthy (Top 2 Box)

Most Important Food Safety Issue

Chemical

Concern

+13%

2014-15

23% 2014

Not as

Much

Food

New Natural

Hierarchy

Humans 2015

Claims

Sought

U.S.

Food

Shoppers

2015

FMI, U.S. Grocery Shopper Trends, 2015; Packaged Facts, Natural, Organic & Eco-friendly Pet Products in the U.S. 10/2014

% Human Consumers

Buying More 2014

Meanwhile, Definitions for Human and

Pet Food Are Not Always the Same or Are

Absent for Terms

• Natural – FDA is silent for pet food; AAFCO “Guidelines

for Natural Claims” – lacks artificial flavors, artificial

colors, or artificial preservatives

• Differs from FDA’s understanding of natural for human foods which

does not allow any coloring agents.

• Organic – there are no official rules governing the labeling

of organic in pet foods

• USDA declares they will work on organic definition to identify

synthetic additives (e.g., vitamins, amino acids) that may be used in

pet foods labeled organic.

• Non-GMO – Non-GMO Verified Project will certify pet

foods

Pet Treat Formulations, Packaged Facts 2015

64% Dog, 63% Cat

owners have used

an alternative

formulation treat

Safety Top of Mind 56%

Dog, 44% Cat Owners

Purchasing

Sprinkle, Form & Function Trends in Pet Treats, 2015; Packaged Facts, Natural, Organic & Eco-friendly Pet

Products in the U.S. 10/2014; Wellness Natural Pet Food Study, 2014; FMI, Power of Meat, 2015.

Very Interested Meat/

Poultry Raised in USA

Pet Food Look for:

59% natural ingred.

52% no by-products

47% seek real meat

42% digestive benefit

40% no artificial flav,

colors, preserv

24% no corn, wheat,

soy

12% unique ingred.

Influences 9 in 10

Food Shoppers

Pet Food & Treat “Natural” Hierarchy 2014

Organic Food $35B, +11%, All Sectors Way Up

4.7% Dog Owners, 3.9% Cat Buy Organic Pet Food

73% Buy Occasionally, 9% Daily

29% Adults Buy Organic to Avoid GMOs;

Millennials, Parents #1 Users, Align Pets

NBJ, 2015; OTA; 2015; SFA, State-of-the-Specialty Food Industry, 2015; Hartman Group Organic & Natural,

2014

15% Cat and 21% Dog Owners

Buy Organic Treats

Claims 3 Years GMO > Natural, Organic?

74% Use Occasionally, 9% “Daily

Down slightly 5 yrs

Walmart

26% Food Shoppers Avoid GMOs; 22% 2014 -

9% Cat, 10% Dog Owners Buy Non-GMO Treats

Moms with Kids < Age 11,

Urban, HH > $49K,

Age 37 #1 Target GMO

I Worry about GMOs in Dog/Cat Food 2014War Non-GMO vs. Organic

Food Marketers

FMI, US Grocery Shopper Trends, 2015; Hartman, Organic & Natural, 2014, Pkg. Facts, Clean Label Report, 2014;

Households with Kids

High

Pet Ownership

(percent of pet product purchasers)

Specialized Approaches to Eating Used in the Past Year

FMI, U.S. Grocery Shopper Trends, Power of Meet, 2015; Beverage Industry, 1/2015, 2014 Study of Nutrition Knowledge/Consumption

Experiment Alternative Eating Styles

17% Some

Effort

Follow Partially

Vegetarian

Diet;

2% VeganAlternative

Beverages 2nd

Most Active New

Beverage

Category 2015

Only 3.7

Dinners/Wk Meat

Poultry, Fish

By Generation

Overinflated: How Can We

Measure Elimination Markets?

The current system doesn’t work!

Scanning for the presence of a claim is not an

indication of intent to purchase. Are we going to

continue to be mislead that these are explosive

growth - consumer driven markets or niches?

Technomic, Healthy Eating Consumer Trend Report, 2014; FMI, US Grocery Shopper Trends, 2014; Hartman

Group, Culture of Wellness, 2013; Sloan Trends, Inc. .

GF Market Size - Nielsen $23B 2014 ∙ Mintel $15.6B by 2016 ∙ Con Agra

$1.2B 2014 ∙ Euromonitor Global $2.1B 2013 ∙ Pkg. Facts, $943M

44% believe GF healthier in 2014 vs 60% in 20121

10% food shoppers sought GF on label, 11% 20142

52% who bought GF didn’t know it was GF3

30% bought GF in 2014 for “no reason”

TrendSense™ Predictive Model: Gluten-

Free

Peaked in Early 2013, Celiac Remains

Strong

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Commercialization – Level 1

Popularizatio

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Copyright Sloan Trends, Inc. 2015 NOT TO BE COPIED, PUBLISHED, DIVULGED WITHOUT PRIOR WRITTEN PERMISSION FROM SLOAN TRENDS

Commercialization – Level 20

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Consumer Commercialization – Level 2

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Supplements

Condition-Specific2

2014 Supplement Sales & Growth

Core users say they are limiting the

number supplements they take daily, with

goal minimize supplement use altogether:

Belief that the quality & benefit

of nutrients in food is best

Pervasive doubts about the

bioavailability of even the

highest quality supplements

Vitamins $11.7B 3.0%

Herbals $6.4 6.8%

Minerals $2.6 5.0%

Sports $4.9 7.9%

Meal Supp.$4.3 7.9%

Specialty $6.9 3.8%

• Whole food supplements $1.7B to

$2.7B by 2017

• Fruit/veg supplement $117M, 3 years

double digit gains

2014 Gallup Study of the U.S. Market for Vitamins & Other Dietary Supplements

fielded 1/2015; Hartman Ethnographic Research, 10 years 2013.

Cut Back Supplement Use, Eating So

Many Fortified Foods

Human: Whole Food & Sports Fastest Growth Supplements 2014; Supplement Use Falling

Pet Supplements $541M, +3.9% 2014;

→ $697M 2019, CAGR 5.4%Condition-Specific Pet Suppl. Purchased 2015

70% Pet Supplement

Users Give 1X/day

Packaged Facts, Pet Supplements in the U.S., 2/2015

Pet Suppl. Market → 2019

Use Pet Supplements: Type → 2019

Pet Treats Sales

$5.4B +5.5% Pet Treat Type - Indulgence Rules!

Supplement Forms 2015

79% Dog, 47% Cat

Parents Buy Treats

Packaged Facts, Pet Treats & Chews in the U.S. 6/2015

Human: Vitamins/Multis Still #1but Specialty Supl.

Moves Ahead of Minerals Consumer Use

• Vit D, magnesium, iron, CoQ10, biotin

historically high levels of use

• Top growth “other vit” +9% sales: vit

D 9%, vit A 7%, B vit 5%

• Top growth minerals: Magnesium,

chromium, selenium, iron, zinc

• 1 in 5 strong effort more antioxidants

2014 Gallup Study of the U.S. Market for Vitamins & Other Dietary Supplements, fielded 1/2015; earlier study 2012; Sloan Trends, 2015 .

Making Strong Effort

to Consume Since 20121

• Vitamins 78%

• Specialty Ingredients 57%

• Minerals 55%

• Herbs/Botanicals 45% What’s Hot: Choline, Potassium

> 90% Deficient Choline

Herbs 10 Years Growth $6.4B, +6.8%

2014

Best selling Mass Market : Horehound

followed by yohimbe, cranberry, black

cohosh, senna, cinnamon, flaxseed/oil,

echinacea, valerian, saw palmetto.

Best-selling Natural Channel -

Turmeric, followed by grass (wheat

and/or barley), flaxseed/oil, aloe vera,

spirulina, blue green algae, milk

thistle, elderberry, echinacea, mace

and saw palmetto

0

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Biggest Gains Awareness 2 Yrs

Turmeric = 35%, Goji berry 28%,

Garcinia cambogia 21%

2014 Gallup Study of the U.S. Market for Vitamins & Other Dietary Supplements, Herbalgram No.103. Aug/Oct. 2015.CRN Supplement Survey,

2014.

US Herb/Botanical Sales &

Growth to 2017

Awareness Herbs

Most Used 2014

Nutrition Business Journal, 2015 Datasheets; 2014 Gallup Study of the U.S. Market for Vitamins & Other Dietary Supplements

Fastest Growing Supplements to 2018

2015e 2016e 13-16 CAGR

Vitamin K, H, Other 1,661 1,806 8.9%

Milk Thistle 131 136 4.2%

Tumeric 197 235 21.5%

Magnesium 733 818 13.0%

Iron 409 438 7.1%

Vitamin D 832 902 8.5%

Vitamin B 2,210 2,414 10.2%

Probiotics 1,517 1,727 16.2%

Digestive Enzymes 273 291 6.3%

Melatonin 458 533 19.8%

Awareness & Use Specialty Supplements

Among UsersSpecialty Supl. Slow

+3.8%; Leaders

Probiotics, Omega,

Glucosamine Slow• After 5 years > 20% growth,

probiotics fell to 14.2%, animal/fish

oil 2.8%, glucosamine 5.5%

• Melatonin, turmeric, multi-herb were

top big double-digit growth $

Proj. Top Growth 2016

Condition-Specific

Supplement Sales

Proj. 2015

Nutrition Business Journal, 4/2015; 2014 Gallup Study of the U.S. Market for Vitamins & Other Dietary Supplements

Supplements 2014 2015e Chng

Why Suppl. Users Take Supplements 2015 (%)

33

Top 10 Health Concerns:

Aging Tops, Muscle; Mom’s Worries

2014 Gallup Study on Nutrition Knowledge & Consumption, HealthFocus, 2014

Very/Extremely Concerned

Benefits Looking For Total

%

Overall well-being 76

Immunity 70

Cognitive/brain

develop

42

Energy/strength 31

Improve digestive

health

28

Eye

health/development

23

Even out moods 12

• Strong Bones/Teeth

• Protection against

disease later in life

• Growth/Development

• Dental cavities

• Mental/Development

• Immunity

• Eye sight

1. Continue Normal Activities as Age

2. Retain Mental Sharpness as Age

3. Bone Health/Strength

4. Eye Health

5. Tiredness/Energy

6. Stress

7. Cancer

8. Heart Disease

9. Lack of Mental Sharpness

10. Muscle

Moms’ Health Concerns Kids

Moms’

Supplement

Needs for

Kids

Humans, Pets Serious Conditions Rising2014 Avg. Cost Initial Vet

Diagnosis/Treatment

Cause Death Cats

Vet Compass, 2014, Vet Meds, Int’l, 2014

Fast Growth Human

Conditions

• Diabetes 1.2M new cases/yr

• Liver #10 cause death men

• 100M high blood pressure

• Heart disease - 87M have

• stroke

• IBS over self-diagnosed

• Thyroid, weight issues

• Digestive - 110M take antacid

Natural Remedies/Rx Alternatives, Minor Ailments,

Human Big Success Supl, Pet Meds $8B 2014 +6.1%

Vet Congress, 2014;IRI, MULO, 4/19/15; NBJ Charts, 2015

7 of Top 10 Sleep Aids

Supplements/Homeo

• Homeopathics $1.2B +10%

• Ayurvedic Sup. $82M +26%

• Chinese Herbs $51M +9%

• Botanicals $6.4B +7.1%

9 Kids’ OTCs Homeo

in Top 10 Best-sellers

51% Men, 49% Women Use CAM

Dogs

Human Practitioner Supplement Sales $3.5B 2015;

MD Recommended Important Claim

Claims: Best-Selling OTC/Supplements ‘14

Put Physicians Name on Bottles

Nutrition Business Journal Data Charts, 2015; Packaged Facts, Pet Supplements in the U.S., 2/2015; IRI, New Product Pacesetter Report, 2014

Human Practitioner Channel Supplement Sales

Pet

Supplements

Purchased

by Type, 2015

Vets Sold $191 Million in Supplements in 2014

37

Top 3 Benefits Want from SNP

KEY BENEFITS SOUGHT

Energy boost (49%)

Weight management (48%)

Build lean muscle (37%)

Replace nutrients lost during

exercise (37%)

Exercise is Up!: +12% Men, 10% Women,

$31B Sports Nutrition Section Mainstreams

Market Splits Everyday, High Performance

Recreational Sports, Gym Workout

Weekend Warriors

Women: Fitness/Weight

Packaged Facts, U.S. Weight Loss Market, 2014; National Sporting Goods Assn., 2014; NBJ, 2015; Gallup 2013 Study of Sports Nutrition

49% Men, 52% Women

Exercise Regularly

Exercise Walking

Exercising with Equip.

Camping

Bicycle Riding

Aerobic Exercising

Hiking

Workout at Club

Running/Jogging

95.8

55.3

44.7

39.8

38.5

37.7

36.3

35.5

Sports Nutrition 2014 Bil $

Weight Loss Up, Men = 68% Growth

Dogs (53%) & 55M (58%) Cats Overweight

High Protein Weight Loss Drinks:

#1 or #2 Fastest Growing CPG

Product Last 5 Years

Pkg. Facts, Weight Management, 8/2015; Pkg. Facts, Pet Treats & Chews in the U.S., June 2015; Assn. for Pet Obesity Prevention; 2014

Men 18-34 Drive Weight Maintenance;

+34% 5 Years & Health Risk Dieting

% Owners Use Pet Food/Treats for

Weight

%Growth Watching Diet for Weight% Growth Humans Watching Diet for Weight

Weight Loss $ Bil 2014

Older Pets:39% Dogs Age

7+, 43% Cats

Packaged Facts, Pet Owner Survey, 1/2015; HealthFocus, 2014; IRI, 2015

Packaged Facts Pet Treats and Chews in the U.S., 6/2015: NBJ Data Sheets

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Anti-Aging Supplement Sales 2006-18e

Ext/Very Concerned 50+ 50

Retaining mental sharpness as I age 70%

Cardiovascular disease 68%

Cancer 64%

Bone health / strength 67%

Mobility with Age 63%

Eye health 63%

Arthritis 63%

Appearance / skin health 48%

Joint health 59%

Bauch & Lomb Preservision

& Ocuvite in Top 10

Best Selling Multis

Human: Probiotic Supp. 2014 $1.4B,

+14.2% vs. +20% for Last 5 Years

0%5%10%15%20%25%30%

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Probiotics Sales & Growth, 2004-17e

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Awareness/Use Probiotics 2014

Digestive Enzymes Suppl. $251M ‘14

10% Kitties Suffer

Digestive Issues

Nutrition Business Journal, 2015 Data Sheets; 2014 Gallup Study of the U.S. Market for Vitamins & Other Dietary Supplements

AM Top Nutrition Time, Market to

DaypartsWellness Relevant Dietary Goals by Daypart

Motivators for AM Eating - #1 Dieters

Energy, Mental, Weight, Feel Full

FMI, U.S. Grocery Shopper Trends, 2014

82% Increase Proj. India’s Pet Market

2014-19, Brazil to $6.4B

Euromonitor, International, Driving Pet

Care 12/2014

Culinary Cues3

1.The Hartman Group, Modern Eating Report, 2013; 2. FMI, U.S. Grocery Shopper Trends, 2014

Top 10 Eating Occasions

New Upscale Eating Occasion, 48%

Foodies;145M Buy Specialty Foods, 96M Everyday Use

1. Rice

2. Chinese

Food

3. Salads

4. Eggs

5. Beans

6. Hamburger

7. Potatoes

8. Vegetables

9. Sweets

10.Meat Cuts

Top 10 Savoring Demand:

Upgrade

36% Buy Gourmet Everyday Snacking1

• Instrumental afternoon snack 10.5%

• Instrumental lunch 10.1%

• Instrumental dinner 9.6%

• Instrumental breakfast 9.4

• Savoring dinner 9.3%

• Savoring after dinner snack 7.1%

• Instrumental after dinner snack 6.3%

• Instrumental morning snack 5.9%

• Savoring lunch 5.8%

• Savoring breakfast 5.3

41% Adult, 33% Snack & 29% Kids’ Eating

Occasions Involve More Sophisticated

Eating Experience – More Fresh

Foodie Narratives, Unique Flavors2

Discovery is a New

Food Attribute

Specialty Food Sales

$105B + 22% - 2 Yrs2

Center-of-the-Plate Hot Side Dishes

NRA, What’s Hot for 2015 Chef Survey, 10/2014

Hot Ingredients

‘152

Specialty Foods, Hot Culinary Trend

Times Buy Prepared

Meals Grocery,

C-Store, Other/Month

Meanwhile, No Standards for

Premium of Gourmet

• Premium, super premium, ultra

premium, gourmet are terms

that are not regulated; no

standards exist for these terms

• Pet foods required to be

nutritionally adequate and

truthfully labeled.

• “Complete and balanced” pet

foods must be substantiated by

AAFCO nutrient profiles and/or

feed trial protocols

Regulatory4

New Regulations Are in Effect by FDA

Proposed Rule – October 2013

Paralleled similar preventive control rule for human foods

Supplemental Notice of Proposed Rulemaking – September

2014

Final Rule – September 17, 2015

Food Safety Modernization Act:

Current Good Manufacturing

Practices, Hazard Analysis, and

Preventive Controls for Food for

Animals

Preventive Controls for Animal FoodRequires implementation of food safety system

with a written food safety plan.

www.fda.gov/Food/GuidanceRegulation/FSMA/ucm366510.htm

Preventive Controls for Animal Food

Supply chain controls are included, but are more

flexible than for human food.

www.fda.gov/Food/GuidanceRegulation/FSMA/ucm366510.htm

Preventive Controls for Animal Food

Compliance dates: post September 17, 2015

www.fda.gov/Food/GuidanceRegulation/FSMA/ucm366510.htm

Opportunities

HUNTING for Opportunities? Got Your EYES on

Something?

LOOKING for the Perfect

Pumpkin Patch?

• Fresh and Frozen

• Natural

• “Clean Label”

• Active – mobility

• Aging well, Weight,

Sports, New Conditions

• Upscale

Drug Stores- Follow

the Meds, Integrate

into Other Depts

Vet-provided Supplements

Upfront Impulse Buy

Pet Treats, Single Serve

On-the-Go, C-stores

Self-diagnosis on

RiseVitamin Waters

New Ops, Looking For Innovation!

Cross-over Human-pet Branding Weight Management

Meal Replacement

Heatable/Re-heatable

Primary Household Shopper

46% Food Shopper HH

Men

Dads

54%

Kick the Can: Complete & Balanced

Pouches & “Appetizers”

Keep Up with

# of Claims

Exercise

“Recovery”/Joint

Health

Beverages

Professional

Services Go Home

7% Pets “Other”,

Backyard Chickens

New Ops, Looking for Innovation!

Sloan Trends, Inc. 20+ Years of Identifying

Emerging Food/Beverage

Opportunities

Dr. A. Elizabeth Sloan

Trends, Markets,

Predictions

760-822-4321 (cell)

Dr. Catherine Adams Hutt

Science, Safety,

Regulatory

630-605-3022 (cell)

A Holistic Approach

lizsloan@sloantrend.com

760-741-9611

www.sloantrend.com