2015 day 11
TRANSCRIPT
1. Write 2+ items that have gotten more expensive in
your lifetime2. Write 3+ items that have
gotten less expensive in your lifetime
On Slates
2012 Comparison
Argentina GDP: $476 billion
Spain’s GDP: $1.3 trillion
United States GDP: $16 trillion
Factors: population, resources, education, crime
Zimbabwe
Population:13 million
GDP: 10 billionGDP/Capita:$700Unemployment:
66%
Your G3 is advising the President of Zimbabwe on how to improve the economy of his country.
Situation: Many blacks can not afford goods and food in the markets. Business owners are allowed to charge whatever price
they want and since food is hard to find, its very expensive. Local Zimbabwe businesses have a difficult time competing with
imports from the USA, South Africa and England. When Zimbabwe businesses fail, people lose their jobs causing more unemployment.
98% of the farm land is owned by white farmers, which was taken in the 1800’s from native Africans. 90% of this country is black and has no access to this farm land. The white farmers pay low wages
and often do not hire native blacks.
Many people in Zimbabwe do not have much money to buy food with. The Zimbabwe dollar is a strong currency which is difficult to
get much of because the central bank doesn’t print very much money for people to use.
Zimbabwe 1990’s
Fixed prices
Banned importsRedistributed
land
Printed up more money
Gov’tsolution EFFECT
President Robert Mugabe
Shortages
More shortages
Still more shortages
inflation
Technically “hyperinflation”
ProblemHigh food prices
Competition from USA & SA
Blacks have no land
Not enough money
What if I told you?• Million dollars?• 25 Billion dollars?• 100 Billion dollars
• Fiat currency = value only because we think it does
Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe
• Start of 2008– 100 % inflation
• End of 2008-2009– 10,000,000 %!!– 10 X 6th inflation
Why can’t we just print more money?• Quantity theory of
inflation• Test it
Piles of currency in Zimbabwe
GDP
• GDP = C + I + G + (Exports – Imports)
• Which one is affected most by inflation?• Which affected least by inflation?
Inflation• Rise in prices over time• “cost of living”• Calculate using
Consumer Price Index
• CPI =
New Prices – Old Prices
Old PricesX 100
Always a percentage, But unlike unemployment rate,It can be more than 100, or a negative
1-3 % inflation = normalAnything higher is bad for consumers
What else causes inflation?
• Cost push theory- • For example, increase the
cost of gasoline causes and increase in the price of food.
• Graph it
• Demand pull theory • For example: fads or hot xmas
toys• Graph it
Of the 3 theories of inflation1. Which one can the government control?2. McDonalds increases menu prices after
minimum wage increase3. Fry’s increases all prices as gas prices increase
15% in January4. Nike increases price of football jerseys every Fall5. Apple increases price of popular mp3 itunes
downloads by 5%6. In state tuition increases for the 10th
consecutive year7. Xbox games increase in price after programmers
demand higher wages8. Make up your own example
On slates
1. What economic activity does GDP leave out?(multiple answers)
2. What part of the US government printed your money? (look on a $1, $2, $5, $10, $20 bill)
What does “the Fed” do?
SuppliesMoney
Controls Moneysupply
SetsReserve
Requirements SuperviseBanks
Gov’t Accounting
ClearsChecks
THE FED
Why is the Chairman of the Federal Reserve sometimes thought of as the “second most
powerful person in the US”?
• Cause: increases interest rates
• Effect: ????
• Cause: lowers interest rate
• Effect: ??? 2014Janet Yellen
On slates1. What would you say about a 10% inflation rate?2. Why are banks important to our economy?
3. What is a recession?4. If the US GDP grew by 1.7% last year, were we
in a recession?5. What part of our government prints our
money?
Great Depression
1929-193327% drop in GDP25% Unemployment36% drop in World trade43 straight months of
declining spending !!!!
“Great Recession”
Housing Crisis2007-20095 % drop in GDP10% Unemployment20% drop in World trade18 straight months of
declining spending
Source Yoram Bauman, World Bank
Monetary PolicyFed’s Tools
Open market operationsReserve Rate (%)Discount Rate (%)
Lender of last resort
What should The Fed do with interest rates in 1921?
1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 19200.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
US CPI 1914-1920
What should The Fed do with interest rates in 1982?
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 19820.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
US 1970- 1982 CPI
Trade opener1. Where was your shirt made?
(Have your neighbor check)2. What type of labor makes t shirts?
3. What type of labor designs cellphones?
Specialization of labor• Firms & countries
figure out more efficient methods of production
• Effect on concept of trade?
Honduras
• 100 tons of sugar/year
OR• 100 tons of
bananas
Cuba & Honduras• Scarcity of farm
land• Who has absolute
advantage?• Who has the
comparative advantage of trade?
• Why is this better?
Cuba:
600 tons of sugar/yearOR200 tons of bananas
Honduras:
100 tons of sugar/yearOR100 tons of bananas
Who has comparative advantage: T shirts, financial, medical services, new movies, shoes, oil production
• Land, labor and capital in Honduras• GDP per capita: $2,200 / Population: 8 million• Literacy rate: 85%, 2 universities
• Land, labor and capital in USA• GDP per capita: $48,000 / Population: 300 million• Literacy rate: 90%, 800+ universities
Trade• Free trade = absence
of restrictions of goods/services
• List 3 winners & 3 losers if all countries
had free trade
• Winners:
• Losers:
Benefits of FREE TRADE• Lower prices for consumers• More competition leading to better
products• Job opportunities for producers• Job opportunities in buyer countries• Opportunity costs?
Types barriers to FREE TRADE• Tariffs• Tax on imports• Result: higher price for consumers, job saving
– Opportunity cost
• Quotas• Limit on imports• Result: high prices, less choice• Examples: Japanese full sized trucks• Lexus, Infinity, etc
Other crazy import tariffs• Japan: 700% tax on rice• European Union: orange juice (31%), peanut
butter (132%), and tobacco products (350%)• South Korea: 100% automobiles• Canada: 28% leather shoes• United States: 249 % solar panels, Waterproof
shoes with a metal toe cap 37.5 %• Brazil: 60% tablet computers
Types barriers to FREE TRADE• Embargos• Banning imports• Result: less exports for
embargoed country
• Subsidies• Gov’t help for industries• Result: higher taxes locally,
other countries retaliate
NAFTA• 1994-present• US, Canada, Mexico• Eliminated thousands of
tariffs
• Expanded to CAFTA in 2005
European Union
• 1954- Present• Free
movement of goods, services and people
• Euro-zone
• Contrast with US/Latin Am.
World Trade Organization• 1995-present• 152 countries• Goal = Global free
trade
• Closely related to IMF
• controversial
Free Trade Assignment• Letter to John McCain
• 2-3 paragraphs considering:
Should the US expand its free trade zone to include all of the Western Hemisphere? Consider both sides, but choose the better one.
Use evidence from the reading