2015 analyst meeting presentation - listed...
TRANSCRIPT
2015 ANALYST MEETING PRESENTATION
February 18, 2016
Agenda
2
2015 Highlights
Strategic Execution
Financial Results
Market Outlook
2015 Highlight
3
Approved investment in
400KTA mLLDPE plant ,
completed construction in
ARO II expansion and COD
MEG plant improvement
Hold 50% share in PTTPM
and PTTPL in order to be
well-integrated in
operation, after integrated
PPCL in 2014.
Achieved gain on inventory
hedging that ease impact
from stock loss
Effective
Hedging Strategy
Continue in PTT
Group
Restructuring
New Capacity
Pipeline
Well-integrated through
value chain with PTT to
maximize benefit of
achieving high ethane flow
at 251T/h with 94%
run rate
Improved in
Ethane flow and
OLE operating rate
Agenda
4
2015 Highlights
Strategic Execution
Financial Results
Market Outlook
Map Ta Phut Retrofit & Synergies through PTT group restructuring
5
Downstream Product Value Creation
PE / Special PE
EO / EG
PP
Acrylic Acid SAP
SM
MMA MS
Butadiene
AN ABS / SAN
PS / Special PS
Potential Product
Existing Product
Legends PTTGROUP Product
SSBR/TPE/PBR
Compound
Refinery Aromatics
1.5 MTA Naphtha
Naphtha Cracker
Ethylene : 500 KTA Propylene : 261 KTA
Maximize Upstream Product Value
Timeline : 2015 2018
Feasibility Study
2020
1Q/18 Construction
COD 1Q/20
2016
ITB
PBS
To study a new naphtha cracker for increasing flexibility of feedstock, especially in feedstock price volatile period, and secure downstream production along value chain as well as create value added to internal feedstock.
Readiness on location, supporting facilities & strategic partner e.g. Thai Tank Terminal
Fulfill downstream product portfolio via partnership e.g. PTT Group operating asset injection and position as a flagship in petrochemical
PO/Polyols Project Updates
2016 2017
Set up JV company
2019
2Q/17 Construction
COD 2Q/19
Timeline :
Isocyanate • TDI/HDI
EO
Polyols System House PO Propylene
PU Formulation PU Raw Materials Feedstock
Cumene
1
2 160 KTA
• MDI
Progress :
Kick off meeting with Foster Wheeler on Jan 04, 2016
Expect to complete FEED package by Jul 31, 2016
#1 Public participation meeting on Nov 26, 2015
#2 Public participation meeting on Mar 31, 2016
Polyols - Completed 1st tier market survey with partners in 6 target countries
more than 80 customers on Dec 15, 2015 and will continue in other countries
PO - Expect to complete market survey with partner in 3 target countries more than 25 customers by Mar 15, 2016
- Under developing offtake agreement with 3 offtakers with total volume covering 80% of total production capacity (incl. captive vol. for Polyols
Marketing & entry strategy will be completed by Jul 31, 2016
FEED
EIA
MARKET
Capacity 200 KTA PO
Licensor
Capacity 130 KTA Polyols 40 KTA PU System
Licensor
PO
Polyols/ System House
Majority Shareholder
Majority Shareholder
Project Scopes :
6
Mattresses,
Bedding
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
Vietnam Demand & Supply of PE product
Opportunity in New Geographies
7
World Scale Ethane Cracker • Utilize ethane from shale gas as feedstock • Capacity : 1 MTA Ethylene • Derivatives
• HDPE : 700 KTA • MEG : 500 KTA • EO : 100 KTA
• Location : Dilles Bottom, Ohio
US Petrochemical Complex Indonesia Project
360
0
329 244
692
58
580
269
619 629
1642
58 0
500
1000
1500
2000
HDPE LDPE LLDPE MEG PP BD
Production Domestic Demand
• Investment cost justify investment return • Enough ethane capacity with capped price • Partner can distribute products in N. America
Key Criteria for FID
Indonesia remains deficit in PE with additional opportunity in AEC, especially CLMV countries
Project Update
• FEED : FEED progress is approximately at 31%. EPC termsheet has been issued
• Feedstock : Working with a major ethane provider to finalize contract term
• Marketing : Continue conducting market survey phase 2 as well as exploring logistic providers options
• Permit: Preparing air permit application
KTA
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
Malyasia Demand & Supply of PE product KTA
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
D&S in AEC Country
VN Supply PH Supply MY Supply TH Supply
VN Demand PH Demand MY Demand TH Demand
Existing Non Captive Upstream
and Downstream 8,948 KTA
HDI Deriv. 12 KTA
Phenol II 405 KTA Aromatics 170 KTA
HDI Monomer 70 KTA
mLLDPE 400 KTA
PO/Polyol 250 KTA
MTP Retrofit 761 KTA
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
Strategic Investment
8
Aromatics Phenol II HDI Thailand HDI France MLLDPE PO/Polyol MTP Retrofit
CAPEX 128.8 MUSD 345 MUSD 43 MUSD 18 MUSD 288.2 MUSD TBC TBC
Additional PetChem* (per year)
PX 115 KTA BZ 35 KTA OX 20 KTA
PH 250 KTA AC 155 KTA
HDI Derivative 12 KTA
HDI Monomer 70 KTA
MLLDPE 400 KTA Hexene-1 34 KTA
PO 200 KTA Polyol
130 KTA
Ethylene 500 KTA Propylene 261 KTA
Period Q1’16 Q2’16 Q2’16 Q2’16 2018 2019 2020 EBITDA Uplift/Year**
24 MUSD 63 MUSD 9 MUSD 24 MUSD 59 MUSD
• 100% stake of additional capacity
** Estimate EBITDA uplift with 100% stake at mid cycle price
8,948 KTA
10,677 KTA
PO/Polyol MTP Retrofit
TBC TBC
PO 200 KTA Polyol
150 KTA
Ethylene 500 KTA Propylene 250 KTA
2018 2020
127 MUSD 195 MUSD
Agenda
9
2015 Highlights
Strategic Execution
Financial Results
Market Outlook
Average and Ending Dubai Crude Price: USD/BBL
Average and Closing FX : THB/USD
10
Business Environment & Operations Recap
10
2014 2015
YoY +/(-)
CDU Utilization Rate 102% 100% -1%
ULG95 - Dubai 14.3 18.3 28%
Jet - Dubai 15.9 13.9 -13%
Diesel - Dubai 16.1 13.7 -15%
Fuel Oil - Dubai -8.3 -5.0 40%
GRM on CDU (USD/bbl) 5.6 7.1 27%
BTX Utilization Rate 81% 74% -9%
PX- Condensate 400 383 -4%
BZ- Condensate 375 238 -36%
Market P2F (USD/Ton) 174 217 25%
Olefins Utilization Rate 91% 94% 3%
Polyethylene Utilization Rate 105% 104% -1%
MEG Utilization Rate 95% 96% 1%
HDPE Price 1,544 1,237 -20%
MEG – 0.65 Ethylene 206 230 12%
% Adj. EBITDA Margin 26 24 -2
o Surplus crude and weak demand pressured Dubai crude to decline from average at 51.9 USD/BBL in 1Q/15 to average at 40.7 USD/BBL in 4Q/15 (2015 year end closing at 31.8 USD/BBL). As a result, PTTGC reported Stock Loss & NRV
totaling 3,602 M.THB for the year.
o FX Loss amounting to 2,288 M.THB, resulting from depreciation in THB against USD from average at 32.65 THB/USD in 1Q/15 to average at 35.84 in 4Q/15.
o Modest Refinery GRM, declined Aromatics P2F, yet, strong Olefins margin
32.48
34.25
32.66 32.45 32.10 32.71 32.65 33.26 35.25 35.84
32.58 32.60 32.52 33.11
32.70
33.93
36.53 36.25
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
Average FX Closing FX
96.6
50.9
104.5 106.1 101.5 74.4 51.9 61.3 49.7 40.7
104.8 109.2
94.6
52.9 53.4 60.2
43.5
31.8
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
Average Price Closing Price
147.5 145.3 146.5 148.6 148.2 146.6 147.8 145.0 146.7 143.1
56.2 60.0 52.4 59.4 61.0 52.0 60.3 66.1 49.5 62.9
203.7 205.3 198.9 208.0 209.2 198.6 208.1 211.1 196.2 206.0
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
Crude Condenstate Residue & Others102% 100%
11
Refinery Performance Production optimization supported decent GRM
ULG
95
- D
B
JET
- D
B
Die
sel -
DB
FO -
DB
Petroleum Products - Dubai Spread (USD/BBL) +39% YoY -3% QoQ
-20% YoY +29% QoQ
-14% YoY +27% QoQ
-17% YoY +19% QoQ
Gross Refinery Margin (USD/BBL)
Total Intake (KBD)
Sales Volume (KBD)
CDU U-Rate
+1% YoY +4% QoQ
+4% YoY +5% QoQ
11
101% 103% 102% 101% 102% 100% 101% 99%
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
Market GRM 4.41 5.45 4.48 4.44 3.83 4.91 5.98 5.40 4.16 6.23
GRM on CDU 5.61 7.13 5.52 5.74 4.81 6.30 7.97 7.27 5.11 8.25
GRM on CRS 2.77 2.95 2.85 2.76 2.82 2.57 2.58 2.69 3.16 3.39
4.41 5.45 4.48 4.44 3.83 4.91 5.98 5.40 4.16 6.23
(4.36) (1.25) (0.69)
0.73
(2.92)
(14.68)
(1.50)
2.22
(3.22) (2.47)
0.94 0.93
0.33 0.66 0.70
2.08
(0.31) (0.04) (0.03)
3.86
0.98
5.13 4.12
5.83 1.61
(7.69)
4.17 7.59
0.91
7.63
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
Market GRM Stock Gain/(Loss) Net NRV
Hedging Gain/(Loss) Accounting GRM
14.3 18.3 14.6 16.1 13.2 13.4 15.3 19.8 19.3 18.7
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
15.9 13.9 17.0 14.3 14.5 17.7 17.1 13.5 10.9 14.1
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
16.1 13.7 17.8 16.0 14.4 16.0 16.3 13.7 10.8 13.8
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
(8.3) (5.0)
(8.5) (10.7) (8.4)
(5.6) (1.9) (3.6)
(8.1) (6.5)
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
8% 9% 5% 8% 9% 9% 9% 10% 9% 9% 14% 13% 14% 13% 14% 14% 12% 14% 15% 13%
50% 49% 52% 51% 54% 45% 46% 51% 49% 51%
13% 11% 13% 13% 12% 15% 17% 10% 9% 10% 15% 16% 16% 16% 10% 16% 16% 15% 17% 17%
185 186 185 188 179 186 184 194 180 188
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
Others Fuel Oil Diesel Jet Naphtha+Ref.
+28% YoY
-13% YoY
-15% YoY
+40% YoY
+1% YoY
+1% YoY
25 44 18 29 42 13 41 31 34 69
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
400 383 386 334 479 401 333 391 397 410
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
375 238
380 370 430 320 217 271 235 230
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
12
Aromatics Performance Second half margin impacted by Aromatics 2 plant shutdown
Pri
ces
PX
FEC
P -
Co
nd
B
Z S
po
t -
Co
nd
Aromatics Products Prices and Spread (USD/Ton)
+2% YoY +3% QoQ
-28% YoY -2% QoQ Products to Feed Margin (USD/Ton BTX)
BTX U-Rate and Sales Volume (KTons)
BTX U-Rate
+19% YoY +44% QoQ
Nap
hth
a -
Co
nd
+454% YoY +103% QoQ
12
81% 74% 91% 89% 82% 63% 88% 85% 57% 66%
836
447
917 922 872
634
453 533
427 375
1,236
829
1,303 1,256 1,350
1,035
785 924
823 786 1,211
685
1,297 1,293 1,301
954
670 804 661
606
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
Condensate Erawan PX FECP BZ Spot Korea
11% 11% 12% 12% 9% 11% 2% 13% 10% 17%
30% 31% 25% 28% 33% 35%
28% 30% 30%
35%
36% 36% 38% 37% 36% 33% 45%
36% 36% 29%
23% 22% 24% 23% 22% 21% 25% 21% 25% 19%
3,156 2,921 806 860 822 668 707 866 552 796
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
BZ Group
PX Group
Naphtha Group
Other By-Products
174 217 166 86
290 164 219 216 183
251
(85.91) (8.57)
-
(7.90)
40.44
(68.54) (398.22) (27.63)
54.93
(48.94) (27.79) (0.02)
(0.37)
- 2.54
88
209 158 127
222
(235)
191 271
134
226
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
Market P2F Stock Gain/(Loss) Net NRV
Hedging Gain/(Loss) Accounting P2F
-36% YoY
-4% YoY
+74% YoY
-7% YoY
13
Olefins and Derivatives Performance Margin stayed strong at 22%
Pri
ces
MEG
AC
P –
0.65
Ethy
lene
H
DPE
- N
apht
ha
Olefins Derivatives Prices and Spread (USD/Ton)
-33% YoY -58% QoQ
-12% YoY -8% QoQ
Adjusted EBITDA Margin
U-Rate (%)
GAS : NAPHTHA Intake %
HDPE Price -20% YoY -7% QoQ
Sales Volume (KTons)
KTons
13
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
HDPE (FILM) SEA 1,544 1,237 1,554 1,569 1,604 1,448 1,188 1,375 1,234 1,153
LLDPE CFR SEA 1,543 1,234 1,560 1,578 1,601 1,431 1,181 1,375 1,224 1,158
LDPE CFR SE Asia 1,571 1,249 1,639 1,605 1,601 1,440 1,192 1,401 1,244 1,158
MEG ACP 1,113 948 1,182 1,093 1,143 1,035 903 1,027 1,025 837
Naphtha MOPJ 861 491 935 951 913 647 494 563 461 445
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
Olefins 91% 94% 77% 91% 94% 101% 96% 89% 93% 97%
HDPE 107% 108% 93% 107% 114% 115% 109% 97% 109% 115%
LLDPE 100% 91% 99% 112% 84% 105% 110% 61% 113% 79%
LDPE 105% 111% 115% 93% 104% 106% 99% 119% 124% 104%
Total PE 105% 104% 99% 106% 104% 111% 107% 92% 113% 103%
MEG 95% 96% 65% 99% 112% 104% 108% 106% 51% 117%
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
Olefins 708 760 134 168 182 224 196 173 189 203
HDPE 873 868 202 218 210 243 219 195 219 233
LLDPE 407 365 98 105 85 120 108 69 99 89
LDPE 323 333 72 92 75 83 80 80 83 90
Total PE 1,603 1,566 373 415 369 446 407 344 402 411
MEG 382 420 71 95 110 107 102 108 80 130
1,544 1,237
1,554 1,569 1,604 1,448 1,188 1,375
1,234 1,153
1,543 1,234
1,560 1,578 1,601 1,431 1,181
1,375
1,224 1,158
1,571
1,249
1,639 1,605 1,601 1,440
1,192 1,401
1,244 1,158
1,113
948 1,182 1,093
1,143 1,035
903 1,027
1,025 837 861
491
935 951 913
647 494 563
461 445
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
HDPE (FILM) SEA LLDPE CFR SEA LDPE CFR SE AsiaMEG ACP Naphtha MOPJ
682 747 620 618 691
802 694
812 774 708
2014 2015 1Q/142Q/143Q/144Q/141Q/152Q/153Q/154Q/15
206 230 245 152 182 246 236 126 394
165
2014 2015 1Q/142Q/143Q/144Q/141Q/152Q/153Q/154Q/15
57% 57% 60% 54% 56% 59% 56% 54% 57% 60%
35% 35% 26% 35% 40% 36% 37% 38% 35% 31%
8% 8% 13% 11% 4% 6% 7% 8% 8% 9%
3,727 3,899 799 932 965 1,032 991 932 964 1,012
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
Ethane Other Gas Naphtha
26% 24% 24% 25% 28% 25% 19%
28% 24% 22%
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
+9% YoY
+12% YoY
216 201 126 164
291 282 240 175 221 170
2014 2015 1Q/142Q/143Q/144Q/141Q/152Q/153Q/154Q/15
268 269 214 197 302 360 454 355
154 114
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
Phenol and BPA Performance Lower Margin from Soften Product Spread
Pri
ces
BP
A-P
hen
ol
Ph
eno
l-B
Z
Phenol/ BPA Prices and Spread (USD/Ton) U-Rate and Sales Volume (KTons)
Sales Volume (KTons)
Adjusted EBITDA Margin
+1% YoY -1% QoQ
-40% YoY -23% QoQ
14
-68% YoY -26% QoQ
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
Phenol (CMP) 1,427 886 1,424 1,456 1,592 1,235 909 979 882 775
BPA (CMP) 1,695 1,156 1,638 1,653 1,894 1,595 1,364 1,334 1,036 889
Benzene 1,211 685 1,297 1,293 1,301 954 670 804 661 606
433 274 Phenol Mkt
P2F 358 389 528 456 347 236 285 227
BPA Mkt
P2F 186 242 103 112 228 299 402 318 137 112
U-Rate 2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
Phenol 118% 130% 78% 131% 132% 132% 131% 121% 132% 134% BPA 99% 103% 70% 107% 104% 116% 114% 85% 107% 104%
1,211
685
1,297 1,293 1,301
954 670
804 661 606
1,427
886
1,424 1,456 1,592
1,235
909 979 882
775
1,695
1,156
1,638 1,653
1,894
1,595 1,364 1,334
1,036 889
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
Benzene Phenol BPA
56% 55% 60% 58% 52% 60% 59% 48% 57% 53%
44% 45% 40% 42% 48% 40% 41% 52% 43% 47%
187 212 48 66 73 70 74 66 72 71
2014 2015 1Q/142Q/143Q/144Q/141Q/152Q/153Q/154Q/15
Phenol
BPA
11% 9% 4%
7%
16% 13% 19%
7% 6% 1%
2014 2015 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15
-7% YoY
0% YoY
+13% YoY
45%
15%
30%
3% 7%
Sales Revenue
Overview of Business Unit’s Performance
FY2015 Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Structure
400,128 MB
15
% Adj. EBITDA Margin 2014 2015 4Q/2015
Business Unit :
Refinery 4 8 15
Aromatics 3 9 11
Olefins and Derivative 26 24 22
Green 4 6 11
HVS 5 7 3
Average 10 13 16
27%
11% 55%
2% 4%
1%
Adjusted EBITDA
50,873 MB
(Unit: Million Baht) 2014 2015 YoY
% + /(-) 4Q/2015
Sales Revenue 550,909 400,128 -27% 96,088 EBITDA 34,220 44,740 31% 10,387 EBITDA Margin (%) 6% 11% 5% 11% Net Profit 15,372 20,502 33% 4,690 EPS (Baht/Share) 3.41 4.55 33% 1.04 Adjusted EBITDA* 52,369 50,873 -3% 14,971 Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%) 10% 13% 3% 16% Note: * Adjusted EBITDA refers EBITDA excluding impact of inventory value (Inventory ,NRV and extra ordinary item)
16
FY2015 Income Statements Consolidated
***
16
‘ 2014** 2015 YoY 4Q/2015
MB % MB % MB % MB %
Sales Revenue 550,909 100 400,128 100 (150,781) (27) 96,088 100
Feedstock Cost (449,497) (82) (304,672) (76) (144,825) (32) (71,547) (74)
Product to Feed Margin 101,412 18 95,456 24 (5,956) (6) 24,541 26
1 Variable Cost (28,433) (5) (25,752) (6) (2,681) (9) (6,585) (7)
2 Fixed Cost (16,389) (3) (16,143) (4) (246) (2) (4,652) (5)
3 Stock Gain/(Loss) & NRV (15,910) (3) (3,602) (1) 12,308 77 (2,053) (2)
4 Gain/(Loss) Commodity Hedging 2,249 0 2,645 1 396 18 2,853 3
5 Other Income 4,353 1 5,023 1 670 15 1,847 2
6 SG&A (10,823) (2) (10,356) (3) (467) (4) (3,033) (3)
7 รายการพเิศษ
คา่เผือ่การปรบัโครงสรา้งธรุกจิ (2,239) (0) 0 0 (2,239) N/A 0 0
ขาดทนุจากการดอ้ยคา่ 0 0 (2,531) (1) 2,531 N/A (2,531) (3)
EBITDA 34,220 6 44,740 11 10,520 31 10,387 11
Depreciation & Amortization (15,890) (3) (16,382) (4) 492 3 (4,209) (4)
EBIT 18,330 3 28,358 7 10,028 55 6,178 6
8 Finance Cost (4,452) (1) (3,967) (1) (485) (11) (937) (1)
9 FX Gain/(Loss) 618 0 (2,338) (1) (2,956) (478) 510 1
10 Shares of profit/(loss) from investments 177 0 711 0 534 302 (210) (0)
11 Income Tax Expense (581) (0) (1,984) (0) 1,403 241 (769) (1)
Net Profit 14,092 3 20,780 5 6,688 47 4,772 5
Profit/(loss) attributable to:
Owners of the Company 15,372 3 20,502 5 5,130 33 4,690 5
Non-controlling interests (1,280) (0) 278 0 1,558 122 82 0
Adjusted EBITDA* 52,369 10 50,873 13 (1,496) (3) 14,971 16
Note: * Adjusted EBITDA refers to EBITDA excluding impact of inventory value (excludes Inventory gain/(loss) and NRV) ** Restated FY2014 Financial Statements from the implementation of new accounting standards (Pack 5) and purchasing PTTPM and PTTPL shares under
common control
7.0 10.1
15.9 14.9 9.1
12.9 11.1
39.2
1.2 1.3
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
PTTGC PPCL Others
17
Strong Financial Position
Repayment Profile
Interest Rate Currencies
55% Fixed 58% THB
45% Float 42% USD & Others
Loan Type
• Cost of long term debts ~ 4.20% (Include W/H Tax)
• Average loan life after refinancing - 5.03 Years
Treasury policy Net IBD to EBITDA ratio of ≤ 2.4x Net IBD to Equity ratio of ≤ 0.7x
THB Bn
* After Refinance
Key Financial Ratios
Statements of Financial Position
As of Dec 31, 2014 As of Dec 31, 2015
THB 381 Bn THB 378 Bn
Cash +ST Investment
CA
Non CA
PPE
Liab.
IBD
Share Holder’s Equity
THB 106 Bn
ST Bank Loan, 0%
LT Bank Loan, 50%
Debenture, 49%
17
1.59
1.28
1.72
1.30
0.23 0.21 0.26 0.25
31 Mar 15 30 Jun 15 30 Sep 15 31 Dec 15
Net IBD/EBITDANET IBD/Equity
6.40% 7.57% 4.80%
8.99%
4.92% 6.10% 4.27% 7.36%
31 Mar 15 30 Jun 15 30 Sep 15 31 Dec 15
ROE ROA
9.7
15.8 15.0
8.8
13.2 12.4
1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
USD Bond
THB Bond
EUR Loan
USD Loan
THB Loan
39.1
2016 Outlook
18
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
• Projected to see correction in Dubai price to be around $30-40/bbl on average.
• Demand & Supply balance is expected to be in 2H16 from less production from non-OPEC but will have some disruption from Iran volume.
AROMATICS
• Although, market is in oversupply situation but the product spread is expected to be improved from having low feedstock cost as low crude price.
• Capacity outage in 1H/16 will ease up oversupply situation
• Utilization rate is expected to increase from 74% to 88% with expanded capacity of 170 KTA of aromatics product.
REFINERY
• Demand growth over supply growth for refinery product both in gasoline and middle distillate. This help to ease market situation.
• Utilization rate drop from 100% to 84% due to planned shutdown in 2Q/16. GRM is expected to slightly decrease to approx. $ 5/bbl
OLEFINS & DERIVATIVES
• Improve in internal factor from expecting more gas flow to increase utilization rate of olefins and inventory management to ease effect from PTTPE turnaround. HDPE – MOPJ spread is maintain at more than $700/T.
19
2015 Highlights
Strategic Execution
Financial Results
Market Outlook
Agenda
GROWING DEMAND BRING MORE CRUDE BALANCE IN 2nd HALF 2016
MARKET HIGHLIGHT
• US crude oil export trend
• Pace of Iran export ramp up
• Meeting between Saudi & Russia
• Non-OPEC & Shale oil production decline
• OPEC meeting in June 2016
• Fewer US Oil Hedging placing more pressure on US crude production
Unit : MBD
CRUDE PRICE TREND 2016
GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY vs DEMAND Non-OPEC Supply Growth Drop
92.0
93.0
94.0
95.0
96.0
97.0
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 2016
Global Demand
Global Supply
Unit : MBD
2016 Growth (MBD)
Demand +1.2
Supply +0.2
Source : JBC Dec’15
Non-OPEC output is projected to decline by 0.6 MBD in 2016.
Source : IEA Jan’16
31.3
37.0
37.0
40.0
40.0
42.5
45.0
46.0
49.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
JP Morgan
Barclays
BNP Paribas
Citigroup
T. Reuters
UBS
Macquarie
BofA
MSBRENT CRUDE
42.5 $/BBL
Brent Oil Poll as 29 January 2016
$/BBL
PRISM DUBAI PRICE FORECAST
52
61
50
41
28
34
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2016
40
30
$/BBL
20
21
MARKET HIGHLIGHT PRICE TREND & FORECAST
ASIA DEMAND REMAINS STRONG THAILAND DEMAND IS STILL GROWING
• High middle distillate inventory
• High diesel export quota from China
• Strong demand benefiting from low oil price
• Asia emerging market consumption e.g. Indonesia & Vietnam
• Q2 Asia Refinery Maintenance 5.5 MBD
2016 ASIA SUPPLY-DEMAND GROWTH
-1.8 -3.5
-8.1 -6.5 -4.7 -6.2
15.3
19.8 19.3 18.7 19.6 18.0
16.3 13.7
10.8 13.8
9.6 10.7
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2016
USD/BBL
Diesel – Dubai
ULG95 – Dubai
Fuel Oil – Dubai
269
195
9
229
138
-65 -150
-50
50
150
250
350
Gasoline MiddleDistillate
Fuel Oil
Demand Growth
Supply Growth
Unit : KBD 2016 China demand growth
• Gasoline 8.0% • Distillate 0.8%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Gasoline Diesel JetGasoline Diesel Jet
Unit : million liter/month
+13%
+6%
+9%
REFINERY : SOFTER MARGIN PRESSURED FROM INVENTORY GLUT
Source : JBC, IEA
THAILAND CONSUMPTION (Q4 Monthly Average)
Q4/14 Q4/15 Q4/14 Q4/15 Q4/14 Q4/15
21
22
AROMATICS: 2016 MARGIN SLIGHTLY IMPROVE FROM LAST YEAR PHENOL /BPA : PRODUCERS CUT PRODUCTION TO CONTROL BALANCE
AROMATICS HIGHLIGHTS
PHENOL & BPA : MARGINS BOTTOM OUT
AROMATICS: MARGINS GRADUALLY RECOVER
PHENOL/BPA HIGHLIGHTS
PX • Potential delay of Indian producer makes no new PX
capacity in 1H
• Peak of turnaround in 2Q16 while having new PTA plant start up in China (Hanbang PC PTA 2,200 KTA)
BZ • Growing of US and China ’s import.
• Strong gasoline demand may limit feedstock to aromatics
Phenol • China producers reduce operating rate to nearly 60%
• Delay start-up of new capacity (275 KTA of Rabigh to 1Q17)
BPA • Global utilization will increase to 74.5% in 2016 from
72.1% in 2015.
• Sinopec & SABIC reconsider to invest BPA-PC project led to only 100 KTA BPA from total plan 340 KTA in 2016 Source: PTTGC’s estimate,
333 372 360 348 400 385
176 240 200
161 220 225
0
100
200
300
400
500
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2016
$/M
T
PX-Naphtha BZ-Naphtha
347
236
285 227 211
265
397
318
137 112
142 185
0
100
200
300
400
500
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2016
$/M
T
Phenol P2F BPA P2F
Source: PTTGC’s estimate,
22
OLEFINS AND DERIVATIVES : STRONG MARGINS OWING TO CRACKER CLOSURE AND OUTAGE MEG : INVENTORY GLUT LIMIT PRICE INCREASE
PROPYLENE PRICE IS STILL PRESSURED FROM ON-PURPOSE
OLEFINS AND DERIVATIVES HIGHLIGHTS HIGH ETHYLENE PRICES WILL SUPPORT
THEIR DERIVATIVES
PROPYLENE MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
Polyethylene • Peak crackers T/A during Mar-Jun (capacity lost 1.1
million ton) • Tight ethylene supply resulting from cracker
rationalization in NEA and long outage of Singapore’s Shell Bukom (Ethylene 960 KTA) since Nov 15 - Aug16
• 2016 HDPE spread over naphtha are expected 720 $/MT
MEG • Projected growing of China inventory nearly 1 million
ton in 2016 may limit prices increase • Long outage of Shell Bukom (MEG 720 KTA)
• Asia Propylene price will be pressure from new capacity about 4.5 million ton mainly from PDH and MTO/CTO.
• Asia operating rate will decrease from 86% in 2015 to 82.5% in 2016.
• Asia PP price will be depressed from low feedstock price (propylene) and capacity additions in NEA about 4 million tons in 2016. Asia PP operating rate is expected to decrease to 87.5% in 2016 from 89.2% in 2015.
339 376 275 142 327 265
833 940
736 587 651 625
1,149 1,344 1,134
995 895 905
0
500
1000
1500
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2016
$/M
T
Propylene-Naphtha Propylene Price PP Price
1188 1375 1234 1153 1082 1085
780 943
765 606 590 610
0
500
1000
1500
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2016
$/M
T
HDPE Price MEG Price
Source: PTTGC’s estimate,
Source: PTTGC’s estimate,
23
For further information & enquiries, please contact our Investor Relations Team at [email protected]
Thank You
24
1 Thitipong Jurapornsiridee VP-Corporate Finance & IR [email protected] +662-265-8574
2 Jittasak Soonthornpan IR Manager [email protected] +662-265-8172
3 Prang Chudasring IR Analyst [email protected] +662-265-8327
4 Supika Charudhanes IR Analyst [email protected] +662-265-8533
5 Nattchanon Chawinsittangkul IR Analyst [email protected] +662-265-8364
6 Chutima Jarikasem IR Coordinator [email protected] +662-140-8713