Texas Population Characteristics, Trends, and Projections: 

Implications for Businesses

Texas Association of Mexican American 

Chambers of CommerceConvention & Business 

ExpoAustin, Texas

August 7, 2015

@TexasDemography

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2012 2013 2014

Numeric Change (Millions) Population (Millions)

2All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012-2014 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950‐2014

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts and Population Estimates

Population Growth, Texas, 1950‐2010

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses

1950 1960 1970 1980

1990 2000 2010

Historic County Population, Texas

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial censuses

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

B r e w s t e r

FranklinHunt

Newton

S t a r r

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

W e b b

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

O l d h a m

Taylor

K ing

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Va l Ve r d e

Brown

Parker

H a r r i s

Zapata

R e dR i v e r

Karnes

P a l oP in to

Glasscock Shelby

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Orange

Colorado

P e c o s

Cochran

Parmer

FreestoneWinkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

VanZandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

E l l i s

H a l l

Dickens

Trinity

R e e v e s

Marion

Te r re l l

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

UptonHamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Limestone

Hutchinson

Llano

P r e s i d i o

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

E d w a r d s

San Patricio

Terry

C r o c k e t t

Houston

Waller

Coke

W a r d

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillH a r t l e y

Young

Burleson

Hardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

S u t t o n

Midland

H u d s p e t h

Zavala

Harrison

Comanche

Mitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

J e f f D a v i s

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

JimWells

Delta

Stonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

F r i o

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort Bend

Bosque

Hockley

SanSaba

K e r r

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

I r i o n

Caldwell

J imHogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

K i m b l e

Knox

P o l k

Hood

San Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

ShermanOchiltree

Comal

Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2014

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Vintage Population Estimates

86 - 10,000

10,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 500,000

500,001 - 4,441,370

89.5% 86.7%

41.5%

65.9%

49.7% 53.7%

10.5% 13.3%

58.5%

34.1%

50.3% 46.3%

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

MigrationNatural Increase

Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, 1950‐2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

Estimated Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2014

7Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2014 Vintage.

Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2014

8Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2014 Vintage.

Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2013‐2014

U.S. Rank

2013‐2014 Percent 

Population Change

Percent Changefrom 

Migration

Percent of Migration that is International

Hays County 5 4.8% 83.89% 2.62%Fort Bend County 6 4.7% 80.6% 17.27%Comal County 9 4.0% 90.1% 3.04%Andrews County 12 4.0% 62.8% 3.57%Montgomery County 13 3.8% 82.1% 10.39%Williamson County 14 3.8% 76.8% 7.84%Kendall County 15 3.8% 98.0% 5.02%Ward County 21 3.4% 72.0% 1.49%Denton County 23 3.3% 72.8% 14.2%Collin County 31 3.1% 73.9% 20.1%Aransas County 32 3.1% 110.8% 4.3%Rockwall County 35 3.0% 78.3% 7.8%Waller County 36 2.9% 77.2% 5.3%Ector County 37 2.9% 59.9% 2.0%Guadalupe County 42 2.8% 78.6% 4.9%Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Vintage Population Estimates

*Among Counties with 10,000 or more population in 2013

U.S. Rank Population Change

Population Change

Percent of Change from 

Natural Increase

Percent Changefrom 

Migration

Percent of Migration that is 

international

Harris County 1 88,618  48.6% 51.4% 54.0%

Bexar County 6 33,712 42.8% 57.2% 23.2%

Dallas County 8 32,555  69.6% 30.4% 116.3%*

Tarrant County 10 31,417  50.8% 49.2% 38.5%

Fort Bend County 11 30,784  19.4% 80.6% 17.3%

Travis County 12 28,397  38.2% 61.8% 29.7%

Collin County 14 26,530  26.1% 73.8% 20.1%

Denton County 16 24,211  27.2% 72.8% 14.0%

Montgomery County 27 19,129  17.9% 82.1% 10.4%

Williamson County 31 18,025  23.2% 76.8% 7.8%

*Dallas had net out domestic migration over this period. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Vintage Population Estimates

Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas, 2013‐2014

Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010

NH White53%

NH Black11%

NH Other4%

Hispanic or Latino32%

2000

NH White45%

NH Black11%

NH Other6%

Hispanic or Latino38%

2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count

Racial and Ethnic Composition of Texas and Top 10 Most Populous Counties, 2014

NH White Hispanic NH Black NH Asian NH Other

TEXAS 43.5% 38.6% 11.7% 4.4% 1.7%Montgomery County 68.6% 22.5% 4.5% 2.6% 1.8%

Denton County 61.7% 19.0% 9.1% 7.6% 2.5%

Williamson County 61.7% 23.9% 6.1% 5.8% 2.4%

Collin County 60.4% 15.1% 9.2% 12.8% 2.6%

Travis County 49.7% 33.9% 8.1% 6.2% 2.1%

Tarrant County 49.3% 27.8% 15.4% 5.1% 2.3%

Fort Bend County 35.1% 24.0% 20.3% 18.7% 1.8%

Harris County 31.4% 41.8% 18.5% 6.8% 1.5%

Dallas County 31.1% 39.3% 22.3% 5.8% 1.6%

Bexar County 29.2% 59.3% 7.2% 2.6% 1.7%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Vintage Population Estimates

Texas White (non‐Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Und

er 1 year

4 years

8 years

12 years

16 years

20 years

24 years

28 years

32 years

36 years

40 years

44 years

48 years

52 years

56 years

60 years

64 years

68 years

72 years

76 years

80 years

84 years

88 years

92 years

96 years

100 to 104…

Popu

latio

n

Age

White (non‐Hispanic)Hispanic

13Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 years

90 years

95 years

100 to 104 years

Male White, Non‐Hispanic Female White, Non‐Hispanic

14

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 years

90 years

95 years

100 to 104 years

Male Black, Non‐Hispanic Male Asian, Non‐Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic

Female Black, Non‐Hispanic Female Asian, Non‐Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic

15

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 years

90 years

95 years

100 to 104 years

Male Hispanic Female Hispanic

16

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 years

90 years

95 years

100 to 104 years

Male White, Non‐Hispanic Male Black, Non‐Hispanic Male Asian, Non‐Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Male Hispanic

Female White, Non‐Hispanic Female Black, Non‐Hispanic Female Asian, Non‐Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic Female Hispanic

17

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Estimated Number of Net Migrants by County, Texas, 2013 to 2014

18Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2014 Vintage.

Percent of the Population Born in Texas, Texas Counties, 2009‐2013

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

DeafSmith

Roberts

Tyler

ValVerde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

RedRiver

Karnes

PaloPinto

Glasscock

Shelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

SanAugustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

Freestone

Winkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

VanZandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

LibertyLee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

SanPatricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillHartley

Young

BurlesonHardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

Comanche

Mitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

JeffDavis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

JimWells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

FortBend

Bosque

Hockley

SanSaba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

JimHogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

SanJacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

Sherman

Ochiltree

Comal

19

44.7% - 55%

55.1% - 65%

65.1% - 75%

75.1% - 85%

85.1% - 90.6%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2009-2013 5 Year Sample

Annual Shares of Recent Non‐Citizen Immigrants to Texas by World Area of Birth, 2005‐2013 

Inflows to Texas from Top 10 Sending States, 2013

21

Top 10 Senders, Numerically

Top 10 Senders, Percentage‐wise

California 66,318 New Mexico 30%Florida 32,619 Louisiana 29%Oklahoma 29,169 Oklahoma 29%Louisiana 29,042 Arkansas 22%Illinois 28,900 Wyoming 17%New Mexico 22,695 Colorado 11%Georgia 19,988 California 11%New York 19,935 Arizona 11%Arizona 19,224 Kansas 10%Colorado 18,979 Mississippi 10%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, State to State Flows 2013; Inflows to Texas

Texas Leads U.S. Job Growth, 2004‐2014

Texas2,180,000

Texas2,180,000

California810,000

California810,000 North 

Carolina340,000

North Carolina340,000

New York550,000New York550,000

Washington320,000

Washington320,000

Texas2,180,000

California810,000 North 

Carolina340,000

New York550,000

Washington320,000

Texas Leads U.S. Job Growth, 2004‐2014

29%

11%

7%4%

Texas

California

New York

North CarolinaWashington

4%

Percentage of Total U.S. Job Gains Attributable to each State

Persons per Square Mile

0 – 10

11 – 50

51 – 500 

501 – 4,000

4,001 – 56,000

1970 1980 1990

2000 2010

Density by Census Tract, Austin/San Antonio Corridor, 1970‐2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial censuses. Geolytics, Neighborhood Change Database Tract Data from 1970-2010

Percentage of Population with Drive Times Longer than 25 Minutes, Texas Census Tracts, 1990 and 2010*

1990 2010*

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990 decennial census and *American Community Survey, 2008-2012 5 Year Sample.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2009-2013 5 Year Sample

Percent of population that is of Hispanic descent, Census Tracts, Texas, 2009-2013

0% - 20%

20.1% - 35%

35.1% - 50%

50.1% - 80%

80.1% - 100%

Coryell

Milam

Hays

Burnet

Travis Lee

Lampasas

Williamson

Bastrop

Blanco

Bell

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2009-2013 5 Year Sample

Percent of population speaking a language other than English at home and speak English less than

very well, Census Tracts, Texas, 2009-2013

0% - 5%

5.1% - 10%

10.1% - 20%

20.1% - 40%

40.1% - 77.9%

Percent of population living below poverty, Census Tracts, 2009‐2013

Percent of population 25 years and older with High School degree and above, Census Tracts, 2009‐2013

Percent of population 25 years and older with BA and above, Census Tracts, 2009‐2013

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

DeafSmith

Roberts

Tyler

ValVerde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

RedRiver

Karnes

PaloPinto

Glasscock Shelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

SanAugustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

FreestoneWinkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

VanZandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

LaSalle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Limestone

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

SanPatricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillHartley

Young

BurlesonHardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

Comanche

MitchellNavarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

JeffDavis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

JimWells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

BastropAustin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

FortBend

Bosque

Hockley

SanSaba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

JimHogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

SanJacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

Sherman Ochiltree

Comal

Percent of Households with at Least One Person Over the Age of 64 Years, Texas Counties, 2008‐2012

13-20%

21-30%

31-40%

41-50%

51-53%

Population Projections

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Zero Migration

0.5 of 2000‐2010 Migration

2000‐2010 Migration

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010‐2050

Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010‐2050

0

000,000

000,000

000,000

000,000

000,000

000,000

000,000

NH‐WhiteNH‐BlackHispanicNH‐Other

1,500 1,000 500 0 500 1,000 1,500

Under 5

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 29 years

30 to 34 years

35 to 39 years

40 to 44 years

45 to 49 years

50 to 65 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 65 years

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 years and older

Thousands

2010 Male 2030 Male 2010 Female 2030 Female

Texas Population Change by Age Group, 2010‐2030

Projected Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010‐2050

,200 - 0

- 2,000

001 - 10,000

0,001 - 100,000

00,001 - 1,000,000

LT 0%

0-40%

41-100%

101-250%

251 500%

Trends in Educational Attainment of Persons in the Labor Force (25‐64 Years of Age) in Texas by Race/Ethnicity –

High School Graduates and Above

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25‐64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates, 

Texas

15.0%

23.8%

31.3%

20.1%

9.8%

18.1%

24.0%

29.9%

18.7%

9.3%

.0%

.0%

.0%

.0%

.0%

.0%

.0%

.0%

Less than High School High School orEquivalent

Some College /Associate Degree

Bachelor's Degree Graduate orProfessional Degree

Educational Attainment

2011 ACS

2030 Constant 2011 %

These should be going DOWN These should be going UP

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25‐64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, and 2030 Using Trended 

Rates, Texas

15.0%

23.8%

31.3%

20.1%

9.8%11.4%

20.4%

34.3%

22.1%

11.8%

.0%

.0%

.0%

.0%

.0%

.0%

.0%

.0%

.0%

Less than High School High School orEquivalent

Some College /Associate Degree

Bachelor's Degree Graduate orProfessional Degree

Educational Attainment

2011 ACS

2030 Trended (2001‐2011 Trend)

These should be going DOWN These should be going UP

Summary

Population continues to grow at a steady pace though growth is geographically unequal.Population growth is being driven largely by the Hispanic population.The population of Texas, while relatively young, is also aging.The components of population change have varying implications for infrastructure in Texas. Demographic and infrastructure challenges may have serious implications for future Texas economy.

Demographics & Destiny

Contact 

Office: (512) 936‐3542Email: Lila.Valencia@osd.state.tx.usInternet: http://osd.state.tx.usTwitter: @TexasDemography

Lila Valencia, Ph.D.