2015 05 - bill cooper
TRANSCRIPT
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Coastal Processes
Bill Cooper
2015 Severn Estuary Forum
29 September
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ABPmer – brief history
Established in 1950 as the Hydraulics Research Station for government owned British Transport Docks Board (BTDB)
BTDB privatised to become Associated British Ports (ABP) in 1981, owner and operator of 21 UK ports, 5 of which in South Wales
Research Station became ABP Research & Consultancy Ltd in 1985
Re-branded to become ABP Marine Environmental Research Ltd in 2002, short name ABPmer
ABPmer remain as wholly owned subsidiary of ABP Holdings Ltd
2015 is our 65th year since formation
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Coastal Processes
(My) definition:
Understanding the naturally occurring Physical Activity in the marine environment which can affect our coasts
The interaction of weather and the sea that creates waves and surges
The rise and fall of the sea by tides
The movement of the sea (driven by waves, surges and tides) and conditions that can create sediment transport
The balance between losses and gains in sediment transport that can change our coasts (geomorphology)
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What we think we know
Physical Activity driven by cycles and trends:
Cycles Gravitational pull of planets (e.g. sun and moon) creating tides with
daily, monthly, annual, decadal periodicity Seasonal cycles (sun) North Atlantic Oscillation (link with sun activity, jet stream behaviour)
Trends Climate change projections (global warming from sun - leading to
increases in mean sea level, etc.)
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What we think we know
2015 is a notable year for big tides – peak of 18.6 year lunar nodal cycle
3 events close to HAT – 21 February, 22 March and 29 September
117 events greater than MHWS, compared with 74 in 2006
Getty Images
AM 28 September 2015
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What we think we know
Getty Images
AM 28 September 2015
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20300.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.07.58.08.59.09.510.0
Vernal Equinox Spring Equinox Lunar nodal amplitude
Year
Avon
mou
th T
idal
leve
l (m
CD)
Ampl
itude
fact
or
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What we are still learning
Winter Storms December 2013 to February 2014:
Exceptional sequence of severe conditions
Unusually strong North Atlantic Jet Stream
Storm tracks that passed at relatively low latitudes
Key events for the South West occurred in January and February 2014
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Jet Stream
Long-term average climatology for January
(1981 to 2010)
January 2014
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Low Pressure on 12 February 2014
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Observed wind speeds across UK
Gusting 83 knots at Mumbles
Hurricane force winds
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01/01/14 11/01/14 21/01/14 31/01/14 10/02/14 20/02/140
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Win
d Sp
eed
(kno
ts)
5 Feb
15 Feb
Observed Winds January and February 20014
1 Feb8 Feb
12 Feb
3 Jan
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Observed Waves January and February 2014
01/01/14 11/01/14 21/01/14 31/01/14 10/02/14 20/02/140
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Scarweather Weston Hinkley
Wav
e He
ight
, Hs (
m)
1 Feb8 Feb
12 Feb
5 Feb 15Feb3 Jan
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What we are still learning
Sequence of 5 storm events in close succession during February 2014
Highest recorded wind speed and largest waves observed on 12 February
From “offshore” hindcast (last 35 years up to end of 2014) top 10 largest wave events occurred on:
Redefining Extreme Value Analysis estimates?
12 February 20148 February 2014
9 December 200728 October 1996
5 January 199126 November 20007 December 2006
3 January 20145 February 2014
10 March 2008
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What we are still learning
Succession of large storms of such high magnitude without intervening periods for recovery led to dramatic coastal change at rates not previously thought possible, especially on westerly facing beaches, e.g. dunes at Berrow receding by 20 to 30 ft.
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Acknowledgements
Thanks to information from:
Met Office Channel Coastal Observatory Tidal Lagoon Power WaveNet