2014.10.10 investor presentation q3 2014 -...
TRANSCRIPT
Q3 2014 results
Investor presentationFollow us on Twitter: @TrygIR
2
Contents
Highlights Q3 2014 3
Premiums and portfolio 9
Claims and expenses 14
Investment, capital and financial targets 20
For new investors 24
Appendix 32
Disclaimer
Certain statements in this presentation are based on the beliefs of our management as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to the management. Forward-looking statements (other than statements of historical fact) regarding our future results of operations, financial condition, cash flows, business strategy, plans and future objectives can generally be identified by terminology such as “targets”, “believes”, “expects”, “aims”, “intends”, “plans”, “seeks”, “will”, “may”, ”anticipates”, “continues” or similar expressions.
A number of different factors may cause the actual performance to deviate significantly from the forward-looking statements in this presentation including but not limited to general economic developments, changes in the competitive environment, developments in the financial markets, extraordinary events such as natural disasters or terrorist attacks, changes in legislation or case law and reinsurance.
We urge you to read our annual report available on tryg.com for a discussion of some of the factors that could affect our future performance and the industry in which we operate.
Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialise or should any underlying assumptions prove to be incorrect, our actual financial condition or results of operations could materially differ from that described herein as anticipated, believed, estimated or expected.
We are not under any duty to update any of the forward-looking statements or to conform such statements to actual results, except as may be required by law.
Highlights Q3 2014 - Strong result despite cloudbursts. Topline trend improving.
782907
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Q3 2014 Q3 2013
D KKm
84.883.7
70
75
80
85
90
95
Q3 2014 Q3 2013
Pre-tax profit
Combined ratio
15.1
0
4
8
12
16
20
Q3 2014 Q3 2013
Expense ratio
3
• Pre-tax profit of DKK 782m (DKK 907m) impacted by lower investment return.
• Technical result of DKK 793m (DKK 766m).
• Combined ratio improved to 83.7 (84.8) despite cloudburst claims of approx. DKK 150m.
• Premium dropped 0.8% (-3.4%) - however, an improved trend in development.
• Efficiency programme helped expense ratio down to 15.1 (15.5).
• Investment result of DKK -1m (DKK 152m) driven by lower equity and bond return.
• 75% of the share buy back programme of DKK 1,000m completed.
15.515.1
0
5
10
15
20
Q3 2014 Q3 2013
Important news in Q3 2014
• Heavy cloudbursts – however, implemented claims initiatives reduced claims costs.
• Tryg acquires Securator and strengthens its position in the Nordic Market for product and extended warranty insurance for electronics.
• Continued development of new price differentiated products. New launches in Q4.
• Efficiency programme progresses as planned. DKK 95m reached in Q3.
• Launch of health care portal – advice on physical and mental health.
• Tryg hosts Capital Markets Day on 5 November in London.
4
Strategic initiatives 2014
Increased price differentiation
Expenses/claims reductions
Customer journey & success culture
IT operational stability
5
6
Key figures Q3/9M 2013/14
7
Combined ratio development in business areas
Group CRQ3 2014: 83.7Q3 2013: 84.8
Combined ratio – Commercial (DK & NO)Combined ratio – Private (DK & NO)
Combined ratio – Private Sweden Combined ratio – Corporate
82.379.0
81.1
85.4
75
80
85
90
95
100
Q3 2014 Q3 2013 9M 2014 9M 2013
92.5
87.890.0
92.2
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Q3 2014 Q3 2013 9M 2014 9M 2013
87.5
96.3
89.6 90.7
80
85
90
95
100
Q3 2014 Q3 2013 9M 2014 9M 2013
80.8 81.5 82.485.5
75
80
85
90
95
100
Q3 2014 Q3 2013 9M 2014 9M 2013
1,000
700
300
835
615
220
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Target 2015 Achieved 2012-2013 Achieved Q1-Q3 2014
8
DKKm
Efficiency programme up until 2015
Targeted and achieved savings on claims
• Savings of DKK 835m achieved so far.
• DKK 95m achieved in Q3 2014.
• DKK 30m reduction in expenses
• DKK 65m reduction in claims
• Claims initiatives – Craft Network, Scalepoint and E-auction.
• Expense initiatives – New customer split between Commercial/Corporate, let of part of Bergen HQ, IT outsourcing and digital communication.
Expenses Claims Total
Follow up on efficiency programme
Premiums and portfolio
Gross earned premiums, DKKm
2,289 2,329
1,045
999 1,025386 442
1,075
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Q3 14 Q3 13
Private Commercial Corporate Sweden
10
Topline and technical result
Gross earned premiums reduced 0.8% (-3.4%) related to:
• Continued high retention level in Private and even improved retention level in Commercial.
• Higher sales level in general in Private compared to last year.
• Commercial – improved retention but sales lower than expected.
• Corporate – growth in Sweden, slightly positive development in DK and NO.
• Sweden affected by cancellation of Nordea agreement.
4,8674,712
Technical result, DKKm
445 440
188 230
130 4254
30
0100200300400500600700800900
1,0001,100
Q3 14 Q3 13
Private Commercial Corporate Sweden
793 766
Local currency
Group: -0.8 (-3.4)
-8.4 (-4.7)
0.5 (-2.6)
-1.6 (-4.7)
0.5 (-2.9)
90
100
110
120
130
140
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
11
Private - average premiums
House insurance – average premium (index 2008 = 100)
Motor insurance – average premium (index 2008 = 100)
Average premiums increase Y/Y
Average premiums increase Y/Y
2.2%
(Q2 2.6%)
0.0%
(Q2 0.5%)
-0.9%
(Q2 -0.6%)
1.4%
(Q2 1.9%)
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2-14
Q3-14
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
12
Customer retention
Private
Commercial
13
Private Sweden – CR and customer retention
125
103
99102 103
9997
114
110
95
91
88
95 94
88 88 89 89
93
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Q1-10
Q2-10
Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Customer retention
Nordea portfolio
50%
60%
70%
80%
Q1-
11Q
2-11
Q3-
11Q
4-11
Q1-
12Q
2-12
Q3-
12Q
4-12
Q1-
13Q
2-13
Q3-
13Q
4-13
Q1-
14Q
2-14
Q3-
14
Claims and expenses
15
CR and claims ratios Q3 2013-14
Claims ratio development - Group
6065707580859095
Q1 09
Q3 09
Q1 10
Q3 10
Q1 11
Q3 11
Q1 12
Q3 12
Q1 13
Q3 13
Q1 14
Q3-14
Gross claims rat io Claims rat io, net of reinsurance
• Underlying development is adjusted for:
• Large claims
• Weather claims
• Run-off and interest
• Improved underlying development on Group level driven by:
• one-off effects
• efficiency improvements
Underlying claims, net Q3 2013/2014
67.8 68.567.2 66.9
87.3
70.172.675.0 75.1
79.4
Q3 2014 Q3 2013
Group Private Commercial Corporate Sweden
16
Run-off, net DKKm
Large claims, weather claims and run-off
Large claims, net DKKm Weather claims, net DKKm
80 83
356373
050
100150200250300350400
Q3 2014 Q3 2013 9M 2014 9M 2013
147
328
202
20
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Q3 2014 Q3 2013 9M 2014 9M 2013
Expected annual
level 2014: DKK 500m
Expected annual
level 2014: DKK 550m
Run-off net, effect on combined ratio
5.7%6.3%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q32014
9M2014
298 243
793 723
0100200300400500600700800900
Q3 2014 Q3 2013 9M 2014 9M 2013
Tivoli cloudburst claims 2011 vs. 2014
Changes since 2011
• Tivoli now has a contingency plan for cloudburst.
• Investments in protection initiatives (pumps, tubes, flood barriers).
• Reconstruction in ’water-proof’ material in consultation with Tryg.
• Storage of contents in basements above floor level based on Tryg’s instructions.
• Volume of water twice as massive in 2014 as in 2011.
• Claims costs in 2014 were only 1/3 of the costs in 2011.
Future
• The contingency plan to be refined by new knowledge.
• Flood barriers are established in several places. (extremely effective)
• Last vital breaker panel will be moved/ secured.
• Upgrade of back-up power system.
• Tivoli seeks exchange of experience with other business groups.
17
Tivoli note archive
Before: Wooden floor (600,000 DKK)Now: Quarry tile (0 DKK)
’Flood Barrier’
Expense ratio development
Expense ratio
18
FTE development
16.6 16.7 16.616.4
15.6
15.5 15.1
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3 2013 Q3 2014
• Expense improved from 15.5 in Q3 2013 to 15.1 in Q3 2014 - an improvement of 0.4 point.
• Nominal expenses on Group level reduced significantly in Q3 2014.
• Efficiency programme
• Reduction in FTE by 127 (excl. Securator) since Q4 2013.
DKKm
Nominal costs in business areas
4,076
3,913
3,7033,639 3,633
4,101
2010 2011 2012 2013 Q2 2014 Q3 2014
11965
183
115
351
210
60
346
Private Commercial Corporate Sweden
Q3 2013 Q3 2014
19
Interest sensitivity
1% increase in interest rate level will:
• Increase pre-tax result by around DKK 300m.
• Improve combined ratio by approx. 1 pp.
• Impact NO pension obligation by around DKK 125m.
Pension scheme Norway - discounting rate
1.21.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
%Claims reserves - discounting rate
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
%
2.8
Investment, capital and financial targets
21
Investment result Q3 2014
Free investment
Match regulatory deviation
Match performance
Other financials
Total return
0.3% 0.2%
-1.6% -1.2%
1.3%
0.2%0.0%
Govt. B
onds
Cov. B
onds
Hig
h-yie
ldEm
ergi
ng m
arke
ts
Equi
ties
Inve
stm
ent p
rope
rty
Tota
l
Free portfolio – Q3 2014 (DKK 12.8bn)
2
7
23
38
1710
3
Equities (22)
Investment property (15)
Bank deposits/bonds (15)
Govt. Bonds (3)
High yield (6)
Cov. Bonds (36)
Em. market bonds(3)
Percentage
Match portfolio – Q3 2014 (DKK 31.2bn)
7
93
Cov. Bonds (94)
Bank deposits/bonds (6)
Percentage
Percentage return – Free portfolio
Investment return
DKKm
21
0
16
-38
-1
6,723
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
Individual Solvency
22
Capital structure and status on share buy back
• Capital buffer based on Individual Solvency increased to 64% (2013 Q4: 50%) and was impacted by:
• 9M result 2014• Share buy back deducted in buffer
• Based on Solvency II model the capital buffer was 29% (2013 Q4: 25%).
• 75% of 2014 share buy back of DKK 1bn. completed.
Solvency II issues:
Further planned implementation of Solvency II in Denmark postponed until January 2016 by Danish FSA.
Unsolved issues:• Future eligibility in Norway of Natural Perils
Pool and the Guarantee scheme provision• Expected future profits • Full inclusion of subordinated capital
11,107 10,716
1,818 1,842
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2013 Q4 2014 Q3
Subordinated loancapitalEquity
Equity and subordinated loan
Capital – Q3 2014
Capital requirement
Buffer
Excess capital4,297
DKKm
DKKm
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
H1 2
014
2014
2015
23
Financial targets
ROE target
ROE after tax
ROE after tax of 20% to be achieved by delivering a full year combined ratio
of 90 or lower.
Expense ratio <15 in 2015
For new investors
25
Tryg - quick overview
Tryg is a non-life insurance company present in Denmark (No. 1), Norway (No. 3) and Sweden (No. 5).
58.8m shares and a market cap of DKK 34bn (June 2014).
Standard & Poor’s rating: A-/Stable.
Dividend policy: Payout ratio of 60–90% Aiming for a nominal stable increasing dividend.
DKKm 2012 2013
Gross earned premium 20,314 19,504
Gross claims -14,675 -14,411
Gross expenses -3,295 -3,008
Insurance result 2,492 2,496
Net investment result 585 588
Pre-tax result 3,017 2,993
Net result 2,208 2,369
Combined ratio 88.2 87.7
No. of employees (FTE) 3,913 3,703
Shareholder’s equity 10,979 11,107
9
14
11
520
24
125
Motor - TPL
Motor - casco
Workers' comp.
Health & accident
Liability
Fire & property - private
Fire & property - comm.
Other
Gross premium split by products - 2013
48.9
40.1
11
Denmark
Norway
Sweden
Gross premium split by geography – 2013
10 oktober 201426 26
Tryg – at a glance
• Tryg goes back to 18th century
• The current Tryg was formed in 2002 by sale of Nordea’s non-life activities –with a continuing strategic partnership
• Non-life insurance in Denmark, Norway and Sweden
• IPO Oct. 2005 on Nasdaq OMX Copenhagen
• Majority owner: TryghedsGruppen(60%) a mutual company in Denmark
• Turnover 2013: DKK 19.5bn (~EUR 2.6bn)
• CEO: Morten Hübbe
• 3,633 employees
Share performance since IPO
NorwayMarket position: #3
Market share: 14.2%CR in 2013: 84.5
SwedenMarket position: #5Market share: 3.5%
CR in 2013: 98.9
DenmarkMarket position: #1
Market share: 19.0%CR in 2013: 87.5
11
16
1360
Danish institutional
Non-Danishinstitutional
Smaller shareholders
TryghedsGruppen
Shareholder breakdown CEO
Morten Hübbe*
CFO
Tor MagneLønnum*
Commercial
Trond BøeSvestad
Corporate
Truls HolmOlsen
Claims
Jesper Joensen
Sweden
Per Fornander
Private
Lars Bonde*
People &ReputationRikke Larsen
*Executive Management Tryg A/S and Tryg Forsikring A/S
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
nove
mbe
r 05
febr
uar 0
6m
aj 0
6au
gust
06
nove
mbe
r 06
febr
uar 0
7m
aj 0
7au
gust
07
nove
mbe
r 07
febr
uar 0
8m
aj 0
8au
gust
08
nove
mbe
r 08
febr
uar 0
9m
aj 0
9au
gust
09
nove
mbe
r 09
febr
uar 1
0m
aj 1
0au
gust
10
nove
mbe
r 10
febr
uar 1
1m
aj 1
1au
gust
11
nove
mbe
r 11
febr
uar 1
2m
aj 1
2au
gust
12
nove
mbe
r 12
febr
uar 1
3m
aj 1
3au
gust
13
nove
mbe
r 13
febr
uar 1
4m
aj 1
4au
gust
14
Tryg incl. dividend Euro Insurance index
27
Dividend policy- creating long-term value for our shareholders
21
33
17
6.54
6.52
26 27
15.5
1613
21
13
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
DK
K p
er
sh
are
• Payout ratio of 60–90%.
• Aiming for a nominal stable increasing dividend.
• Ambitious ROE target of 20% after tax calls for disciplined capital approach.
• Adjustment of the capital level can be made via share buy back.
Total distribution to shareholders
New dividend policy
Cash dividend Ordinary buy back Extraordinary buy back
28
Structure of the Nordic insurance markets
8.9
10.5
4.8
18.2
9.1
8.5
40.0
TrygIfCodanGjensidigeLänsförsäkringarTopdanmarkOther
Nordic
EUR 24,5bn (as at Q4-2012)
Percentage
5.9
18.7
6.1
17.3
12.39.8
29.9TrygTopdanmarkCodanAlm. BrandGjensdigeIfOther
Denmark
DKK 50,9 bn/EUR 6,8bn (as at Q3-2013)
Percentage
10.1
25.1
23.4
14.1
27.3 TrygIfGjensidigeSparebank1Other
Norway
NOK 54,1 bn/EUR 6,4bn (as at Q2-2014)
Percentage
15.1
15.818.5
30.31.5
2.9
16.1
ModernaLänsforsäkringarIfCodanFolksamGjensidigeOther
Sweden
SEK 67.9bn/EUR 7.6bn (as at Q2-2014)
Percentage
10 oktober 201429 29
Distribution of new sales 2013
Denmark
58%30%
12%
Own sales Affinity Nordea
Norway
46%
12%
36%
6%
Own sales Car dealers Affinity Nordea
Sweden
52%
22%
8%
18%
Own sales External partnerswww & others Atlantica/Bilsport MC
Corporate
50%50%
Own sales Brokers
30
Combined ratio performance
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2004
*20
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
139M
201
4
2002-2004 price increases of DKK 2.1bn implemented. Reduced combined ratio from 107 to 94.2011-2012 price increases will improve underlying combined ratio.2012-2015 operational focus with target to cut expenses and claims costs by DKK 1bn in total.
*IFRS from 2004. Previous years are Danish GAAP.
Data before 2009 is not corrected for the sale of Marine Hull business.
Premium hikes
Premium hikes
Smaller adjustments
Efficiencyprogramme
31
Key figures 2010-13 and consensus for 2014-16
DKKm 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Gross premium income 18,894 19,948 20,314 19,504 18,687 18,773 19,014
Gross claims incurred -15,111 -15,783 -14,675 -14,411
Operating expenses -3,136 -3,271 -3,295 -3,008
Technical result 460 1,572 2,492 2,496 2,657 2,610 2,661
Investment income, net 550 61 585 588 495 309 303
Pre-tax profit 1,006 1,603 3,017 2,993 3,085 2,881 2,925
Tax -265 -455 -837 -620
Net income 593 1,140 2,208 2,369 2,335 2,192 2,237
Total insurance provision 32,031 34,220 34,355 32,939
Shareholders' equity 8,458 9,007 10,979 11,107
Earnings per share 9.5 18.9 36.5 39.4 40.2 38.8 40.6Cash dividend per share 4.0 6.52 26.0 27.0 28.3 29.3 30.3
Share buy back DKKm 0.0 0.0 800 1,000 968 915 722
Combined ratio 98.3 93.2 88.2 87.7 86.2 86.5 86.4
Consensus
Appendix
Follow us on Twitter: @TrygIR
33
Group
Gross premiums Combined ratio
Gross claims ratio Expense ratio
65
70
7580
85
90
95
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
7580859095
100105110
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
4,400
4,600
4,800
5,000
5,200
5,400
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
-4
0
4
8GEP (LHS)
Local currency (RHS)
DKKm %
34
Private
Gross premiums Combined ratio
Gross claims ratio Expense ratio
65
70
7580
85
90
95
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
7580859095
100105110
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
1,900
2,100
2,300
2,500
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
-4
0
4
8GEP (LHS)
Local currency (RHS)
DKKm %
35
Commercial
Gross premiums Combined ratio
Gross claims ratio Expense ratio
5565758595
105115
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
75
85
95
105
115
125
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
12131415161718192021
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
1,000
1,100
1,200
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
-8
-4
0
4
8GEP (LHS)
Local currency(RHS)
DKKm %
36
Corporate
Gross premium Combined ratio
Gross claims ratio Expense ratio
5565758595
105115125
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
80
90
100
110
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
9
10
11
12
13
14
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
GEP (LHS)
Local currency(RHS)
DKKm %
37
Sweden (Private)
Gross premium Combined ratio
Gross claims ratio Expense ratio
60
70
80
90
100
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
85
95
105
115
125
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
5
10
15
20
25
30
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
250
300
350
400
450
500
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
-15-10-50510152025
GEP (LHS)
Local currency(RHS)
DKKm %
38
Geographical segments
10 oktober 201439 39
Economic key figures
Source: Economic Outlook, Nordea Markets, September 2014
Denmark Sweden
% 2014 2015 % 2014 2015GDP Growth 0.5 1.3 GDP Growth 2.0 2.3
Inflation 0.7 1.2 Inflation 0.0 1.1
Unemployment 5.1 5.1 Unemployment 7.9 7.6
Current account balance in % of GDP 5.9 5.3 Current account
balance in % of GDP 6.0 5.6
Budget balance in % of GDP -0.3 -2.9 Budget balance in % of
GDP -2.2 -1.4
Public debt in % of GDP 44.4 45.2 Public debt in % of GDP 42.4 41.7
Norway
% 2014 2015GDP Growth (mainland) 2.3 1.5
Inflation 2.1 1.7
Unemployment 3.4 3.7
Current account balance in % of GDP 10.7 11.0
Budget balance in % of GDP 11.0 11.2
Public debt in % of GDP 0.0 0.0