2014 World Cup Prediction

Jared Ness

World Cup Play Consists of 32 international teams

Must pass through 5 stages

http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/teams/

Stages Stage 1, groupings A-H of 4 teams.

4 teams play each other to gain points:

3 win, 1 draw, 0 loss

Stage 2-5 are single game elimination

http://www.mlssoccer.com/

MLP learning with BP Will take data from the first stage of World

Cup to predict the final stages outcomes.

For now will test out previous years World Cup stats to check authenticity

http://bioinformatics.oxfordjournals.org/

Inputs 8 features based on team performance

Goals for, Shots, Shots on goal, fouls committed, corner kicks, direct free kicks to goal, indirect free kicks to goal, possession

Each input value in normalized based on team played based on equation:

yiA= xiA/(xiA+xiB) , yiB= xiB/(xiA+xiB)

Therefore y= 0 - 1

Inputs The averages of the first 3 games will be

taken and used to compare for stage 2

This will continue through each stage with each victorious team

http://www.worldcupblog.org/

Training Based on first 3 games will take undefeated

and winless teams data, set it to 1 and 0 respectively

Continue to run until smallest error occurs and then run stage 2 data

After stage 2 take undefeated data and train the program again.

This continues after each stage until there are no more undefeated teams

Results Pending

Will test accuracy on previous World Cups.

http://travel.nationalgeographic.com/