2014 winnipeg manitoba market outlook

Housing market intelligence you can count on

Manitoba Economy

Manitoba Housing Markets

Winnipeg Demographics and Housing Markets

Resale Market

New Home Market

Single-detached

Multi-family

Rental Market

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f

Manitoba Real GDP GrowthEconomy will continue to expand at a steady pace

per cent change in real Gross Domestic Product

Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Forecast (f)CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Jan-Aug

2014

Manitoba Retail Sales GrowthSpending growth at over three per cent, contributing to economy

Source: Statistics Canada

per cent change in retail sales


-$10

-$5

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Ja-Au

2013

Ja-Au

2014

Exports Imports Net Exports

Manitoba International TradeExports increasing, up 10 per cent to date in 2014


billions


Manitoba Total Net MigrationMigration to remain elevated above 8,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f


Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Forecast (f)

net migration

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f

per cent change, average employment

Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Forecast (f)

Manitoba Employment GrowthEmployment gains to return in 2015


Manitoba Employment by AgeGains among 25 to 44 year olds, positive for first-time buyers

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

15-24 25-44 45-64 Total Employment

2013

Jan-Sep 2014


year-over-year % change


Manitoba Unemployment RateProjected to remain near 5.5 per cent

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Manitoba Canada


Source: Statistics Canada, seasonally adjusted

unemployment rate

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

CPI - Manitoba

AWE - 12 mo mov. avg.



year-over-year % change

Manitoba – AWE and InflationNominal wage growth above inflation

Five-year Mortgage RateWill remain low by historical standards

0

5

10

15

20

25

1951 1959 1967 1975 1983 1991 1999 2007 2015f

5-year Mortgage Rate

Forecast Range

Source: Bank of Canada, CMHC Forecast (f)

4

5

6

7

2014f 2015f 2016f

per cent


5,000

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

15,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f

Other Centres

Winnipeg

Manitoba MLS® Total SalesProvincial sales to rise moderately

Source: CREA, CMHC Forecast (f)

units



average price (thousands)

Manitoba Residential MLS® PricePrice growth expected to moderate


$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f

5.3% 2.2% 2.3%

5.2%

2.3%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f

Rest of Province

Winnipeg


Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f)

units

Manitoba Single-detached Housing StartsStarts to increase in 2015, remain stable

Q1-Q3 2013 Q1-Q3 2014 % Change

Winnipeg 1,693 1,434 -15%

Brandon 101 84 -17%

Steinbach 61 49 -20%

Portage la Prairie 5 7 40%

Thompson 2 2 -

Winkler 81 47 -42%

Hanover 102 88 -13%

St. Andrews R.M. 31 24 -22%

All Urban Centres 2,076 1,735 -16%

Rural Areas 767 688 -10%

Total 2,843 2,423 -15%

Source: CMHCCANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Manitoba Single-detached Housing StartsGreater decrease in urban areas

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f

Rest of Province

Winnipeg


Manitoba Multi-family Housing StartsTo moderate but remain elevated


units

Q1-Q3 2013 Q1-Q3 2014 % Change

Winnipeg 1,930 1,961 2%

Brandon 172 134 -22%

Steinbach 170 97 -43%

Portage la Prairie - 20 **

Thompson - - **

Winkler 91 112 23

Hanover 28 12 -57%

St. Andrews R.M. - - **

All Urban Centres 2,391 2,336 -2%

Rural Areas 402 194 -52%

Total 2,793 2,530 -9%

Source: CMHC

Manitoba Multi-family Housing StartsGreater decrease in rural areas


Manitoba Forecast Summary

Source: CMHC, Statistics Canada, CREA, * Total Residential, CMHC Forecast (f)CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

2013 2014f 2015f 2016f

Economy

GDP Growth 2.2 2.0 2.4 2.3

Employment Growth 0.6 -0.1 1.1 1.0

Net Migration 9,217 9,200 9,100 9,300

New Home Market

Single-detached Starts(Range)

3,820 3,300(3,400-3,200)

3,500(3,800-3,200)

3,500(3,900-3,100)

Multi-family Starts(Range)

3,645 3,400(3,400-3,400)

3,000(3,200-2,800)

2,800(3,100-2,500)

Resale Market*

Total Sales(Range)

13,735 13,900(14,100-13,600)

14,100(14,800-13,400)

14,200(15,100-13,300)

Average Price(Range)

$260,849 $266,500($266,900-$264,400)

$272,600($277,380-$268,000)

$278,800($283,600-$272,100)



-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

year-over-year per cent change

Winnipeg CMA Population GrowthRate of growth at levels not seen in over 25 years



0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5%

Halifax

Montréal

St. John's

Ottawa-Gatineau

Vancouver

Toronto

All metropolitan areas

Winnipeg

Regina

Edmonton

Saskatoon

Calgary

2012-2013 per cent change

Select CMAs Population GrowthWinnipeg on par with national metropolitan average


Renter 1st Time

Buyer

Move-up

Buyer

Seniors’

Housing

Live with

parents

Adult Lifestyle


persons

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,0000-4

5-9

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

9

90+

Population

Growth Rate (2009-2013)

Winnipeg Age Profile 2013Higher population growth supports multi-family markets


Renter 1st Time

Buyer

Move-up

Buyer

Seniors’

Housing

Live with

parents

Adult Lifestyle


persons growth rate

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,0000-4

5-9

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

9

90+

Population

Growth Rate (2009-2013)

Winnipeg Age Profile 2013Higher population growth supports multi-family markets

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f


Winnipeg CMA MLS® Total SalesSales to rise moderately through 2016


residential unit sales

Winnipeg MLS® SalesCondominium sales climbing, 14 per cent of total in 2013

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

2,250

2,500

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Residential

Condominium

Source: Winnipeg Realtors® websiteCANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

residential unit sales condominium unit sales

Winnipeg CMA MLS® SalesPace of sales rebounded in recent months

800

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


units (trended)

Source: CREA, Trend adjustment by CMHC

Winnipeg CMA MLS® New ListingsMore homes being put up for sale, increased 14 per cent yr/yr

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


units (trended)

Source: CREA, Trend adjustment by CMHC

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Winnipeg

Canada

MLS® Sales-to-New Listings RatioDecreasing, within balanced conditions

seasonally adjusted


Source: CREA, seasonally adjusted

Winnipeg CMA MLS® Average PricePrice gains to moderate

$75

$100

$125

$150

$175

$200

$225

$250

$275

$300

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f


thousands


5.2% 2.8%2.5%

5.7%

2.5%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Multi-family

Single-detached


Winnipeg CMA Total Housing StartsTotal starts reached a 26-year high in 2013

units

Total Housing Starts Per CapitaWinnipeg starts per capita climbing

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Winnipeg

All Metropolitan Areas


Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC

starts per 1,000 population

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f


Winnipeg CMA Single-detached StartsTo come down from 2013 but remain elevated


units

Winnipeg CMA Single-detachedAbsorptions beginning to outpace completions

100

125

150

175

200

225

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Absorptions

Completions


units (12 month moving average)

Source: CMHC

Winnipeg CMA Single-detached InventoryDecreasing and in line with five-year average

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Complete and Unabsorbed

Spec Homes

Show Homes


units

Source: CMHC

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f

average absorbed price (000s)


Winnipeg CMA New Single-detached PriceAbsorbed average price to increase steadily


1.9%4.5%

2.8%3.7%

2.7%

Winnipeg CMA Absorptions by PriceCategory of greatest market share shifted upwards

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

<$300K $300K-$400K $400K-$500K $500K-$600K >$600K

Jan-Sep 2013

Jan-Sep 2014

absorptions by price range (single-detached units)


Winnipeg CMA New House Price IndexRate of growth has slowed

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Total

House only

Land only


2007 = 1.0


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f


Winnipeg CMA Multi-family StartsWill remain elevated, but moderate over next two years


units


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Semi Row Apt.

Jan-Sep 2013

Jan-Sep 2014

Source: CMHC

Winnipeg CMA Multi Starts by TypeRow housing seeing increased activity

units

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Ja-Se

2013

Ja-Se

2014

Ownership Rental


Winnipeg CMA Multi Starts by TenureUnits for ownership seeing greater market share

units

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Absorptions

Completions

units (12 month moving average)

Source: CMHC

Winnipeg CMA Multi-family AbsorptionsCompletions outpacing absorptions since 2012


Source: CMHC

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Rental

Ownership

Five-year Average

Winnipeg CMA Multi-family InventoryComplete and unabsorbed units rising


units

Source: CMHC

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Rental

Ownership

Five-year Average

Winnipeg CMA Multis Under ConstructionUnits under construction at a 35-yr high


units

Winnipeg CMA Apartment Vacancy RateTo rise above three per cent by 2016

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f


October surveys



$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f

two-bedroom average rent (October)


Winnipeg Average Apartment RentSteady increases to continue


$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

average two-bedroom apartment rent

average MLS® home carrying cost

* assumption: 5% down payment, average 5-year fixed mortgage rates, amortized 25 years

Source: CREA, Bank of Canada, CMHC calculations

monthly carrying cost*, rent

Winnipeg Cost of Owning vs. RentingCosts 60 per cent more to buy a home than rent

2013 2014f 2015f 2016f

New Home Market

Single-detached Starts 2,218 1,975 2,000 2,025

Multi-family Starts 2,487 2,550 2,500 2,400

New House Pr. Ind. (% chg.) 4.9 2.3 2.2 2.2

Resale Market

Total Sales 12,088 12,200 12,300 12,400

Average Price $ 268,382 $ 276,000 $ 283,000 $ 290,000

Rental Market

Vacancy Rate (%) 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.2

2-bedroom Rent $ 969 $ 1010 $ 1,040 $ 1,070

Source: CREA, Statistics Canada, CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f)

Winnipeg CMA Forecast Summary


Contact Information

Dianne Himbeault

Senior Market Analyst, CMHC

[email protected]

(204) 318-1754


2014 winnipeg manitoba market outlook

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