2014 q3 international value webcast final7789c3b7080a

Upload: valuewalk

Post on 02-Jun-2018

219 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

  • 8/10/2019 2014 q3 International Value Webcast Final7789C3B7080A

    1/14

    FPA International Value StrategyFPIVX

    Third Quarter 2014

    Webcast Presentation

    October 21, 2014

    Presented by the International Value Team:Pierre PyPortfolio Manager

    Jason Dempsey Victor LiuAnalyst Analyst

  • 8/10/2019 2014 q3 International Value Webcast Final7789C3B7080A

    2/14

    Key fund attributes

    1

    Absolute valueSeek genuine bargains and hold cash when opportunities are scarce.

    Broad universe and benchmark agnosticInvest across market caps, sectors,geographies.

    Bottom-upSelect and value companies based on fundamentals. Look for high quality.

    Downside focusedAvoid low quality and high leverage. Buy at a significant discount to

    fair value.

    Research-basedPortfolio is output of research. Discounts dictate portfolio weightings.

    ConcentratedFocus on best ideas - typically 25-35 holdings. Non-diversified investmentvehicle.

    Long-term, often contrarian approach20% expected average turnover. Time for

    discount to unwind dictates holding period.

  • 8/10/2019 2014 q3 International Value Webcast Final7789C3B7080A

    3/14

    Performance as of September 30, 2014

    2

    Note: Since inception, our average cash exposure has been >35%.

    Fund declined 8.70% over the quarter, versus 5.27% for the Index.

    Cash balance has started to come down significantly, from all-time high of ~40% at 06/30/14, to ~30% at 09/30/14.

    Cash exposure is a function of the opportunity set.

    Deployed circa 25% of assets into 9 names this quarter (3 initiated in last few days of 2Q14, 6 new additions).

    Concentration and weighting on relative discount: String of opportunities can have negative impact on short-term returns.

    These names have corrected circa 15-45% during the period (more from previous highs), and could continue to fall as we buy.

    European stocks hit particularly hard, and Euro depreciated vs. the Dollar. In Euro currency, fund declined circa 1% this quarter.

    One holding experienced significant negative performance: Fugro down >40% (in US currency) following profit warning in July.

    * Inception December 1, 2011. Annualized.

    Calculated using Morningstar Direct.

    A redemption fee of 2% will be imposed on redemptions within 90 days.

    Net expense ratio: 1.26%.

    Past performance is no guarantee of future results and current performance may be higher or lower than the performance shown. This data represents past performance and

    investors should understand that investment returns and principal values fluctuate, so that when you redeem your investment it may be worth more or less than its original cost.

    Current month-end performance data may be obtained via http://www.fpafunds.com/internationalvalue or by calling toll-free, 1-800-982-4372.

    Note: The MSCI ACWI ex US Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the combined equity market performance of developed and emerging market

    countries excluding the United States.

    QTD YTD 1 Year 2013 2012 2011 Inception*

    FPA International Value -8.70 -5.98 -3.56 18.00 24.04 1.20 12.36

    MSCI ACWI Ex US (Net) -5.27 0.00 4.77 15.29 16.83 -1.12 10.29

  • 8/10/2019 2014 q3 International Value Webcast Final7789C3B7080A

    4/14

    Key investment takeaways

    3

    What were seeing in the markets is what we have longed for in months: lower prices and more dispersion.

    Dollar denominated cash regaining purchasing power. Prices are coming down. Some of Funds new holdings are stocks which have declined 30% to 50% in past few months.

    Businesses in sectors like mining, O&G or luxury goods, and markets like Australia, Europe or Brazil.

    Intrinsic values function of long-term cash flows, and based on normalized, through-cycle economics. Values have beenrelatively stable in case of holdings. In case of new additions, they have not fallen as much as prices.

    Small, nimble, and concentrated. Able to take advantage of opportunities and impact portfolio quickly.

    Leaning into market volatility: Buy as things get cheap, buy more as they get cheaper:

    Buying new names and rebuilding positions in holdings like LSL.

    Pipeline of next best investment ideas within 10% points of buy range.

    No ability to time the market. Cant pick the trough. Stocks we buy may continue to fall down in price.

    Invest over several years. Short-term performance not particularly meaningful. Evaluate return over medium to long-term:

    Post decline, annualized returns since inception remain strong, on both relative and more importantly, absolute basis.

    Defensive characteristics hold true.

    Weighted average discount to intrinsic value up from historical lows to 34%.

    Redeploying capital towards ideas with greater prospective returns.

    Similar to 2Q14: Fund returned negative 5.24%. Weighted average discount to intrinsic value was 36%.

  • 8/10/2019 2014 q3 International Value Webcast Final7789C3B7080A

    5/14

    FPIVX estimated discount to intrinsic value

    4

    3231

    36

    33

    30

    27

    30

    2524

    26 26

    34

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14

    >30% = Preferred estimated discount to intrinsic value

    10% = Margin of error. NOTa margin of safety.

    The Fund has produced better returns than the Index since we began disclosing the Funds estimated discount to intrinsic value:

    1/1/12-9/30/14: 12.36% annualized for FPIVX vs. 10.29% for Index

    We have produced superior returns with:1. >35%cash on average over the period.

    2. Less leveraged companies on average over the period (~0.3x debt/equity for FPIVX vs. ~0.6x for Index).

    3. Compelling defensive characteristics, e.g. maximum drawdowns -8.7%versus -14.0%for the Index.

    4. Funds estimated discount to intrinsic value slightly increased over the period.

    5. Significant asset growth during rising market ($10m in AUM to $600m in less than 3 years).

    Calculated using Morningstar Direct.A redemption fee of 2% will be imposed on redemptions within 90 days. Net expense ratio: 1.26%.

    Note: The MSCI ACWI ex US Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the combined equity market performance ofdeveloped and emerging market countries excluding the United States.

  • 8/10/2019 2014 q3 International Value Webcast Final7789C3B7080A

    6/14

    As of Date: 9/30/14 FPA International Value MSCI ACWI ex US

    12-Month Forward P/E 14.8x 13.7x

    Price/Book 2.0x 1.7x

    Return on Equity 18.4% 14.5%

    Debt to Equity 0.3x 0.6x

    Median Market Cap (billions) $5.4 $7.2

    14.8x Forward P/E: High quality companies that trade at attractive valuations

    Financials, Materials, Energy drive index P/E down significantly. We believe our names are cheaper.

    Our businesses have greater staying power and superior management teams.

    Portfolio has become more attractive

    Reduce cash exposure.

    Weighted average discount to estimated intrinsic value increased to 34%.

    Still focused on high return, financially robust companies

    18.4% ROE: Strong fundamentals drive industry-leading margins, high cash flows, and attractive returns. Goodmanagers allocate capital in value creative manner.

    0.3x Debt to Equity: Financially robust companies positioned to become stronger through difficult times.

    Opportunities in small companies. More balanced towards smaller market capitalizations than in previous periods.

    Portfolio metrics as of September 30, 2014June 30, 2013

    5

    Source: Mellon and FPA data.

    12-Month Forward P/E is calculated using harmonic averaging, which helps avoid extreme results that may occur due to small relative numbers. Price/Book ratio is the market price of a stock

    divided by the book value per share. Return on Equity measures a corporation's profitability by revealing how much profit a company generates with the money shareholders have invested.Debt to Equity is the measure of a company's financial leverage calculated by dividing its total debt by stockholders' equity.

  • 8/10/2019 2014 q3 International Value Webcast Final7789C3B7080A

    7/14

  • 8/10/2019 2014 q3 International Value Webcast Final7789C3B7080A

    8/14

    One new disclosure. Six new purchases.

    Disclosing position in Fenner. Based in UK. World leading manufacturer of conveyor belts. Material mining and Australian exposure.

    Added 6 names to portfolio including ALS,Christian Dior,Hypermarcas,KSB, and Prada.

    ALS: Based in Australia. Dominant provider of geochemistry services. Leading player in environmental analyses.Growing participant in other testing, inspection, and certification markets. Material mining and Australian exposure.

    Christian Dior: Based in France. World renowned fashion house. 40% shareholder in global luxury group LVMH.

    Hypermarcas: Based in Brazil. #2 packaged goods, and #3 pharma company in the country.

    KSB: Based in Germany. One of world leading manufacturers of pumps, with strong market presence in energy.

    Prada: Based in Italy. One of worlds best luxury fashion brands, with strong position in attractive leather category.Material exposure to China.

    Likely impacted by sharp decline in exploration spending, slowdown in growth and anti-corruption policies in China,macro and political uncertainties in Brazil, and anemic growth prospect in Europe. Short-term challenges, but marketvaluations no longer adequately reflect long-term cash flow generative power of individual businesses.

    2 holdings remain undisclosed, including one new portfolio addition.

    Adding opportunistically to existing holdings, LSL in particular.

    Portfolio activity

    7

    Portfolio composition will change due to ongoing management of the funds. References to individual securities are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as recommendationsby the Funds Advisor or Distributor.

  • 8/10/2019 2014 q3 International Value Webcast Final7789C3B7080A

    9/14

    Sold out of two positions.

    GEA: In the portfolio since inception in December 2011.

    Based in Germany. World leading industrial player with strong market positions in heat transfer, mechanicalseparation, and farm technologies. Well positioned in process engineering and food technologies.

    High quality, well run, and financially strong. No longer offering appropriate discount to intrinsic value.

    Legrand:

    In portfolio since first quarter 2012. One of first quarterly case studies.

    Based in France. World leading player in the design and manufacturing of low voltage electrical products such asswitches and sockets.

    High quality, well run, and financially strong. No longer offering appropriate discount to intrinsic value.

    Opportunistically reduced weightings of number of existing holdings based on relative discounts to intrinsic value.

    Portfolio turnover.

    High levels by historical standards. Expect long-term average of 20%. Approximately 5 year typical holding period.

    Only invest if comfortable with possibility of perpetual ownership. Also valuation driven: holding period dictated by timeneeded for discount to intrinsic value to unwind.

    Portfolio activity (continued)

    8

    Portfolio composition will change due to ongoing management of the funds. References to individual securities are for informational purposes only and should not be construed asrecommendations by the Funds Advisor or Distributor.

  • 8/10/2019 2014 q3 International Value Webcast Final7789C3B7080A

    10/14

    Portfolio as of September 30, 2014

    9

    Portfolio composition will change due to ongoing management of the funds. References to individual securities are for informational purposes only and should not be construed asrecommendations by the Funds, Advisor or Distributor. Sector classification scheme reflects the GICS (Global Industry Classification Standard).

    Overview: Circa 70% invested. Cash fluctuates along with

    opportunity set.

    28 positions. Top 10 account for close to 40%of assets. Many are newly built positions.

    Cap agnostic. $17bn weighted average marketcap (approx. $400m to >$100bn). More

    balanced towards small caps.

    Geographic Analysis:

    Mostly UK and Europe. Some developingmarket exposure. No exposure to Japan.Number of opportunities in Brazil.

    Domicile not very relevant. Close to 60% offree cash flows generated outside Europe.

    More than half EUR exposure hedged

    defensively. GBP exposure less significant.

    Size and geo agnostic.

    Sector Analysis: Favor capital light businesses: services, robust

    industrials, consumer goods. No exposure tobanks.

    Sector agnostic. IT not technology dependent.

    Geographic allocation (% of assets invested):

    3.4%

    6.6%

    7.5%

    7.5%

    11.2%12.3%

    21.4%

    30.2%

    0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0%

    Materials

    Other

    Financials

    Energy

    Information TechnologyConsumer Staples

    Consumer Discretionary

    Industrials

    Sector allocation (% of assets invested):

    Europe78.0%

    EM3.8%

    Pacific Basin

    11.6%

    Other6.6%

  • 8/10/2019 2014 q3 International Value Webcast Final7789C3B7080A

    11/14

    Global leading provider of consulting and outsourcing services.

    Significant portion of staff from Global Delivery Network of offshore production.

    Winning combination of competitive advantages:

    Brand (consulting): R&D, training, and marketing spending far in excess of competitors.

    Cost per unit (outsourcing): Able to source large number of engineers at highly competitive

    rates through global delivery network.

    Favorable underlying market dynamics:

    Sustainable positive long-term growth in global IT spending.

    Continued market share gains from higher cost market incumbents.

    Leading outsourcing players typically rational participants with high margins and returns.

    Good, steady economics:

    Sustainably generates margins in the low to mid teens.

    Limited tangible assets. Negative working capital. Technically infinite returns, and high free

    cash flow generation.

    Experienced, stable, high quality management team.

    Prudent M&A strategy. Majority of excess capital returned to shareholders.

    Consistently net cash positive with Net Debt/EBITDA averaging -1 to -1.5x.

    High single digit free cash flow yield and multiple of normalized EBITA at time of purchase.

    Case study: Accenture (ACN)

    10

    Gas turbine engines

  • 8/10/2019 2014 q3 International Value Webcast Final7789C3B7080A

    12/14

    We are long-term value investors with a focus on international equities. We look for well-run, financially strong, high-

    quality businesses that can be purchased at a significant discount to their intrinsic values.

    Investment credo

    11

    Investment

    Candidate:

    Continued valuecreation over time

    Discount to

    estimated intrinsicvalue

    Buy Investment Decision

    Sell Investment Decision

    Intrinsic value line.

    Discount to intrinsic value line.

    *Chart is a hypothetical example to show our Investment Philosophy and is not an actual holding in the fund.

    Price

    Time

  • 8/10/2019 2014 q3 International Value Webcast Final7789C3B7080A

    13/14

    Question & Answer

  • 8/10/2019 2014 q3 International Value Webcast Final7789C3B7080A

    14/14

    Disclosure

    13

    These slides are intended as supplemental material to the 3rd Quarter 2014 FPA International Value audio presentation that is posted on our website fpafunds.com.

    We do want to make sure you understand that the views expressed on these slides and in the accompanying audio presentation are as of today, October 21, 2014, and are subject to changebased on market and other conditions. These views may differ from other portfolio managers and analysts of the firm as a whole, and are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a

    guarantee of future results or investment advice. Any mention of individual securities or sectors should not be construed as a recommendation to purchase or sell such securities, and any

    information provided is not a sufficient basis upon which to make an investment decision. The information provided does not constitute, and should not be construed as, an offer or solicitation

    with respect to any securities, products or services discussed.

    Past performance is no guarantee of future results and current performance may be higher or lower than the performance shown. This data represents past performance and

    investors should understand that investment returns and principal values fluctuate, so that when you redeem your investment it may be worth more or less than its original cost.

    Current month-end performance data may be obtained by calling toll-free, 1-800-982-4372.

    The Prospectus details the Fund's objective and policies, sales charges, and other matters of interest to the prospective investor. Please read this Prospectus carefully before

    investing. The Prospectus may be obtained by visiting the website at www.fpafunds.com, by email at [email protected], toll-free by calling 1-800-982-4372 or by contacting the

    Fund in writing.

    Investments in mutual funds carry risks and investors may lose principal value. Stock markets are volatile and can decline significantly in response to adverse issuer, political, regulatory,

    market, or economic developments. The Fund may purchase foreign securities, including American Depository Receipts (ADRs) and other depository receipts, which are subject to interest

    rate, currency exchange rate, economic and political risks. Foreign investments, especially those of companies in emerging markets, can be riskier, less liquid, harder to value, and more

    volatile than investments in the United States. Adverse political and economic developments or changes in the value of foreign currency can make it more difficult for the Fund to value the

    securities. Differences in tax and accounting standards, difficulties in obtaining information about foreign companies, restrictions on receiving investment proceeds from a foreign country,

    confiscatory foreign tax laws, and potential difficulties in enforcing contractual obligations, can all add to the risk and volatility of foreign investments. Small and mid cap stocks involve greater

    risks and they can fluctuate in price more than larger company stocks.

    The Fund is non-diversified and may hold fewer securities than a diversified fund because it is permitted to invest a greater percentage of its assets in a smaller number of securities. Holding

    fewer securities increases the risk that the value of the Fund could go down because of the poor performance of a single investment.

    Performance returns for the MSCI ACWI ex-USA Index assume dividends were reinvested for the entire period. Returns for periods greater than one year are compounded average annual

    rates of return. One cannot invest directly in an index.

    Statistics have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.

    The FPA Funds are distributed by UMB Distribution Services, LLC

    The portfolio holdings as the most recent quarter end may be obtained at http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/funf-holdings/international-14-09039BE3A6B50B.pdf?sfvrsn=2.

    http://www.fpafunds.com/http://www.fpafunds.com/http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/funf-holdings/international-14-09039BE3A6B50B.pdf?sfvrsn=2http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/funf-holdings/international-14-09039BE3A6B50B.pdf?sfvrsn=2http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/funf-holdings/international-14-09039BE3A6B50B.pdf?sfvrsn=2http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/funf-holdings/international-14-09039BE3A6B50B.pdf?sfvrsn=2http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/funf-holdings/international-14-09039BE3A6B50B.pdf?sfvrsn=2http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/funf-holdings/international-14-09039BE3A6B50B.pdf?sfvrsn=2http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/funf-holdings/international-14-09039BE3A6B50B.pdf?sfvrsn=2http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/funf-holdings/international-14-09039BE3A6B50B.pdf?sfvrsn=2http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/funf-holdings/international-14-09039BE3A6B50B.pdf?sfvrsn=2http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/funf-holdings/international-14-09039BE3A6B50B.pdf?sfvrsn=2http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/funf-holdings/international-14-09039BE3A6B50B.pdf?sfvrsn=2http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/funf-holdings/international-14-09039BE3A6B50B.pdf?sfvrsn=2http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/funf-holdings/international-14-09039BE3A6B50B.pdf?sfvrsn=2http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/funf-holdings/international-14-09039BE3A6B50B.pdf?sfvrsn=2http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/funf-holdings/international-14-09039BE3A6B50B.pdf?sfvrsn=2http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/funf-holdings/international-14-09039BE3A6B50B.pdf?sfvrsn=2http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/funf-holdings/international-14-09039BE3A6B50B.pdf?sfvrsn=2http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/funf-holdings/international-14-09039BE3A6B50B.pdf?sfvrsn=2http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/funf-holdings/international-14-09039BE3A6B50B.pdf?sfvrsn=2http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/funf-holdings/international-14-09039BE3A6B50B.pdf?sfvrsn=2http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/funf-holdings/international-14-09039BE3A6B50B.pdf?sfvrsn=2http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/funf-holdings/international-14-09039BE3A6B50B.pdf?sfvrsn=2http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/funf-holdings/international-14-09039BE3A6B50B.pdf?sfvrsn=2http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/funf-holdings/international-14-09039BE3A6B50B.pdf?sfvrsn=2http://www.fpafunds.com/http://www.fpafunds.com/http://www.fpafunds.com/http://www.fpafunds.com/http://www.fpafunds.com/http://www.fpafunds.com/http://www.fpafunds.com/http://www.fpafunds.com/