2014 bgri abeyo
TRANSCRIPT
Cul$va$ng Success in Ethiopia: The contras$ng stripe rust situa$ons in 2010 and 2013
2010 2013
Kubsa – Devastated by stripe rust
Digalu -‐ >5t/ha crop
B. Abeyo, D. Hodson, B. Hundie, G. Woldeab, B. Girma, A. Badebo, Y. Alemayehu, T. Jobe, A. Tegegn and W. Denbel
Kakaba -‐ >6t/ha
PresentaBon Outline • Wheat producBon in Ethiopia • Recurrent rust epidemics • In 2010, Ethiopia witnessed the worst stripe rust epidemics in recent history
• In 2013, There were the real fears of another major stripe rust epidemic -‐ but this did not transpire
• Side by side comparison of 2010 vs 2013 for some key factors
• Are the rust / wheat investments in Ethiopia paying dividends?
Wheat ProducBon in Ethiopia v Major staple & strategic food
security crop v Largest producer in SSA
v 1.7 million ha v 4 million MT (2013/14 forecast
CSA) v 5 million HHs – small-‐scale farmers v AdaptaBon
v AlBtude: 1500 -‐ 2800 masl v Mainly rainfed with rain fall: ≥
500 mm v Temp: 15 -‐ 280C
v Wheat in field somewhere in Ethiopia throughout the year
Framers field around Eteya,2013
Area & ProducBon Trends
0.00
500,000.00
1,000,000.00
1,500,000.00
2,000,000.00
2,500,000.00
3,000,000.00
3,500,000.00
4,000,000.00
4,500,000.00
1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Year
Ethiopia Wheat Area and Produc$on (1961-‐2013)
Area Harvested (ha) ProducBon (tonnes)
Source: FAOSTAT, CSA
Recurrent Rust Epidemics: A key constraint for Ethiopian farmers
YEAR DISEASE CULTIVARS GENE
1988 Stripe Rust Dashen Yr9 1993 Stem Rust Enkoy Sr36 2010 Stripe Rust Kubsa,
Galema Yr27
2013 Stem Rust Digalu SrTmp
2010 Stripe Rust Epidemic in Ethiopia v Kubsa & Galema’s resistance
broke due to a Yr27 virulent race v Ethiopia experienced the largest
stripe rust epidemic in recent history
v Over 600,000 ha of wheat affected v An esBmated 60 million Ethiopian
Birr (US$3.2 million) were spent on fungicides
v Large producBon losses were observed
2010 2013
Extended wet seasons, well distributed rains, cool temperatures
(= happy wheat + happy stripe rust !)
June-‐Sept Rainfall Anomalies (green/blue = higher than normal seasonal rainfall)
The Favourable Environment – Both 2010 & 2013
Stripe Rust “Suitable Days” (Temp >2 <21 ˚C, Precip > 0)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Num
ber o
f Days
Gondar: Suitable Days
avg
2010
2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Num
ber o
f Days
Debre Marcos: Suitable Days
avg
2010
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Num
ber o
f Days
Addis: Suitable Days
avg
2010
2013
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Num
ber o
f Days
Robe: Suitable Days
avg
2010
2013
Both 2010 & 2013: Above average “suitable days” for stripe rust
IniBal Outbreaks • When & where did stripe rust first appear?
2010: Assasa Plain, August (early occurrence)
2013: Assasa Plain, August (early occurrence)
IniBal Outbreaks • When & where did stripe rust first appear?
2010: Assasa Plain, August (early occurrence)
2013: Assasa Plain, August (early occurrence)
Extremely similar wind dispersal paYerns Aug-‐Sept 2010 & 2013
Aug wind
Sept wind
Season Outcomes: 2010 & 2013
2010 2013
Total Survey n = 1084 fields Total Survey n = 1292 fields
Season Outcomes: 2010 & 2013
2010 2013
Stripe Rust Hotspots -‐ From Survey Data
Total Survey n = 1084 fields Total Survey n = 1292 fields
ContrasBng Season Outcomes: 2010 & 2013
2010 2013 600,000 ha affected 3 regions (Oromia, Amhara, SNNPR)
Pockets of stripe rust present (Tigray & SNNPR)
58% of survey sites infected (Total survey n= 1084)
27% of survey sites infected (Total survey n= 1292)
>180,000 ha sprayed Amount spent on fungicides >60 million Birr (US$3.2 million)
C. 15,000-‐20,000 ha sprayed Timely, effecBve fungicide control
On-‐farm losses 60% to 100%
Negligible on-‐farm losses
Significant na$onal losses (>10% of total producBon)
A record wheat harvest forecast (>4 Million Mt)
PotenBal ProducBon Impacts
RelaBve yield gain 2010 & 2013: • compared to 3 year avg. (2006-‐09)
2010
2013
2010: High Yield Depression Zone (% yield gain <5% [many –ve])
2010: Stripe Rust Hotspots + High Yield Depression Zone
Source: CSA, 2011, 2013
NaBonal Cereal Yield Gains vs Previous Year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Teff Barley Wheat Maize Sorghum
2.77
5.03
0.66
15.51
13.67
% yield Gain
2010 % Yield Gain (vs 2009)
2010 % Gain
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Teff Barley Wheat Maize Sorghum
11.09
5.49
12.18
5.39
11.49 % yield gain
2010 & 2013 % Yield Gain (vs previous year)
2010 % Gain
2013 % Gain
All cereals – except wheat – performed well in 2010 All cereals – especially wheat – performed well in 2013
Source: CSA, 2011, 2013
Influencing Factors: Resistant CulBvars
S / MS
R / MR
Unknown
Known CulBvars – On-‐farm Survey Data
2010 2013
Influencing Factors: Resistant CulBvars
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
S R Unknown
391
101
535
240
562 490
2010
2013
Number of surveyed farmer fields reporBng known culBvars
CulBvar Summary
• Between 2010 and 2013 there were dramaBc shixs from yellow rust suscepBble to yellow rust resistance
• 2013/14: CulBvar Digalu esBmated to be grown on >500,000 ha (approx. 30% of wheat area)
R/MR
Unknown S/MS
S/MS Unknown
R/MR
EsBmates of Areas Planted (Yellow rust resistant vs suscepBble)
2010 2013
Other ContribuBng Factors
Factors 2010 2013 Farmer Awareness on Fungicide Use
LOW HIGH
Fungicide availability No. Or limited amount in
reserve.
Yes. Sa$sfactory amount in
reserve.
Informa$on Exchange Limited amongst stakeholders
Good informa$on exchange
Belg (minor) season survey NO YES
Early Main Season Survey NO YES
Farmer Awareness on Rusts
NO / LIMITED HIGH / AWARE
Early Warning System NO YES
Integrated (mul$ple) Stakeholder Response
NO / LIMITED YES (EIAR, MoA, ATA, Extension Directorate, CIMMYT, FAO, …..)
Lessons learned / recommendaBons Many posiBve lessons were learned from the 2010 epidemic & 2013 season. • Strategic recommendaBons: – Farmer / extension capacity building – rust idenBficaBon and control
– Need a strategic fungicide reserve (registered chemicals) – Con$nued & strengthened early warning systems and $mely surveillance
– Con$nued rapid seed mul$plica$on & promo$on – Strengthened pipeline of new diverse APR sources of resistance (+ ayenBon to other diseases e.g., Septoria)
– Crop diversifica$on – break wheat monoculture
Conclusion • 2013 was a high risk year for stripe rust • PosiBve acBons, post 2010 epidemic, certainly contributed to making 2013/14 a record wheat producBon year for Ethiopia. Key factors were: – Rapid spread of rust resistant culBvars that dramaBcally reduced the vulnerability of the Ethiopian wheat crop
– Timely and coordinated surveillance efforts, coupled to good informa$on exchange amongst different stakeholders, resulted in effec$ve control and awareness campaigns that targeted emerging stripe rust outbreaks
• Wheat / rust investments in Ethiopia are paying dividends!
• BUT, no room for complacency……..
….Stem Rust!!! • Widespread cul$va$on of Digalu gave vulnerability to stem rust
• Incursion of race TKTT_ (not a Ug99 race) [analysis CDL, Minnesota, GRRC, Denmark]
• Breakdown of SrTmp • Rapid disease development : first detecBon early Oct ; full blown epidemic mid Nov!
• Localized epidemic on 20-‐40,000 ha (10-‐20% of total wheat area) in southern Ethiopia
• 100% crop loss in worst affected areas
“Rust never sleeps” -‐ but nor do Ethiopian wheat scien$sts! The commitment to improve the country’s wheat crop con$nues
Farmer fields Gasera 26th Nov 2013.
Digalu crop killed by stem rust Digalu crop sprayed with Tilt
Acknowledgements • B&MGF • USAIDEIAR • EIAR • DRRW (Cornel Uni.) • EAAPP (World Bank) • CIMMYT • ICARDA • MoA • FAO
• ATA • Seed Enterprises • USDA-‐ARS CDL Mn • GRRC, Denmark • Cambridge University, UK
• THE FARMERS OF ETHIOPIA!