2013.05.08.cpp.sess4.3.poverty.reduction.philippines

55
Official Poverty Statistics and Poverty Reduction Programs of the Philippines Ms. Bernadette B. Balamban Chief, Social Sectors Division, National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) Ms. Mildred B. Addawe Statistical Coordination Officer V, Social Sectors Division, NSCB Ms. Mary Grace G. Darunday Budget and Management Specialist II, Department of Budget and Management (DBM) International Conference Workshop on Poverty and Inequality in Asia 7-9 May 2013, Bali, Indonesia The views expressed in this presentation are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. ADBI does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of their use. Terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.

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Poverty Reduction Philippines

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  • Official Poverty Statistics

    and Poverty Reduction Programs

    of the Philippines

    Ms. Bernadette B. Balamban

    Chief, Social Sectors Division, National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB)

    Ms. Mildred B. Addawe Statistical Coordination Officer V, Social Sectors Division, NSCB

    Ms. Mary Grace G. Darunday Budget and Management Specialist II, Department of Budget and Management (DBM)

    International Conference Workshop on Poverty and Inequality in Asia 7-9 May 2013, Bali, Indonesia

    The views expressed in this presentation are the views of the author and do not

    necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank Institute

    (ADBI), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), its Board of Directors, or the

    governments they represent. ADBI does not guarantee the accuracy of the data

    included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of their use.

    Terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.

  • Outline of Presentation

    I. Overview of the Philippines Official Poverty

    Statistics

    II. Official Poverty Estimation Methodology

    III. Latest Poverty and Inequality Statistics

    IV. Efforts on Improving Relevance of Official

    Poverty Statistics

    V. Challenges to the Philippine Statistical System

    VI. Poverty Reduction Programs

  • I. Overview of the Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

    Executive Order 352

    Designation of Statistical Activities that will Generate

    Critical Data for Decision-making of the Government and the

    Private Sector

    Issued on July 1, 1996

    National Statistics Office (NSO)

    - Conduct of Family Income and Expenditure Survey

    Technical Committee on Poverty Statistics (TC PovStat)

    - in charge of the formulation/development of the official

    poverty estimation methodology

    National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB)

    - Mandated to generate and release the countrys official

    poverty statistics

    Legal Basis

    3 Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

  • 4

    Who are the sources of data inputs?

    Data needed Agency responsible

    Provincial food bundles Food and Nutrition Research

    Institute (FNRI)

    Price data (e.g., actual

    provincial prices of food items

    and 2006-based regional CPI

    for food)

    Bureau of Agricultural Statistics

    (BAS)

    National Statistics Office (NSO)

    Income (of families/per capita)

    from the Family Income and

    Expenditure Survey (FIES)

    NSO

    II. Overview of the Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

  • FIES is being conducted every three years

    NSO collects data in two visits:

    Visit Reference Period Conduct of Survey

    First First Semester

    income/expenditure

    (January-June)

    July

    Second Second Semester

    (July-December)

    January of the

    succeeding year

    How and when is the FIES collected?

    II. Overview of the Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

  • Target sample households: nearly 51,000

    Total number of pages of the questionnaire: 70 pages, 24 of which are devoted to income

    Processing, extensive data quality checks

    Prior to April 23, 2013, latest FIES results are for 2009 made available in January 2011; hence, latest official

    provincial poverty statistics (i.e., subsistence/poverty

    incidences and other measures of poverty) are also for

    2009, which was released in February 2011.

    Some information on the FIES

    II. Overview of the Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

  • (Poor) Food Threshold (in pesos)

    (Subsistence Poor, Food Poor, Extremely

    Poor)

    (Non Poor) Poverty Threshold (in pesos)

    income

    income income

    Poverty

    Incidence

    Subsistence

    Incidence

    How does the NSCB generate official poverty statistics?

    II. Official Poverty Estimation Methodology

  • Actual Prices

    100% RENI for energy

    100% RENI for protein

    80% RENI for vitamins

    and minerals

    PROVINCIAL food bundle

    Farmgate Price

    Food eaten

    in the area

    Retail Price

    LEAST cost

    Visualizable

    FOOD THRESHOLD

    National food bundle

    II. Official Poverty Estimation Methodology

  • Meal Time Viands

    Breakfast Scrambled egg

    Boiled rice

    Coffee with milk

    Lunch Boiled monggo with

    malunggay and dried

    dilis

    Banana, latundan

    Boiled rice

    Dinner Fried tulingan

    Boiled kangkong

    Boiled rice

    Snacks Pandesal

    National reference food bundle from

    the Test of Revealed

    Preference

    Meal Time Viands

    Breakfast Scrambled egg

    Coffee with milk

    Boiled rice/rice-corn mix

    Lunch Boiled/ginataang monggo

    with malunggay and dried

    dilis

    Banana

    Boiled rice/corn mix

    Dinner Fried fish/boiled pork

    Vegetable dish

    Boiled rice/rice-corn mix

    Snacks Bread or boiled rootcrop

    Sample translation:

    National Capital Region

    9

    II. Official Poverty Estimation Methodology

  • Non-food threshold Food threshold

    Constant FE/TBE ratio

    POVERTY THRESHOLD

    ACTUAL Non-Food Basic Needs

    Education

    Clothing & footwear

    Medical care

    Transportation & communication

    Fuel, light & water

    Housing

    10 Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

    II. Official Poverty Estimation Methodology

    Housing maintenance & other minor repairs Non-durable furnishings Household operations Personal care & effects Rental of occupied dwelling unit

  • Monthly Food and Poverty Threshold for a Family of Five,

    1st semesters of 2006, 2009, and 2012 (in PhP)

    During the 1st semester of 2012, a Filipino family of five needed

    PhP5,458 monthly income to buy their minimum basic food needs;

    andPhp7,821 monthly to include other minimum basic nonfood needs

    1st Semester

    5,458

    7,821

    7,040

    5,586 4,903

    3,894

    III. Latest Poverty and Inequality Statistics

  • Subsistence and Poverty Incidence among Families (%),

    1st semesters of 2006, 2009, and 2012

    Poverty practically unchanged between

    1st semester of 2006 and 1st semester of 2012

    1st Semester

    22.3

    10.0

    III. Latest Poverty and Inequality Statistics

  • Subsistence and Poverty Incidence among Population

    (%),

    1st semesters of 2006, 2009, and 2012

    1st Semester

    On the average, 28 out of 100 Filipinos are living in

    poverty between the 1st semester of 2006 and 1st semester

    of 2012

    27.9

    13.4

    III. Latest Poverty and Inequality Statistics

  • During the 1st semester of 2012, on the average, a poor family

    of five members needed a monthly additional income of

    to move out of poverty or approximately .3% of the

    poverty threshold.92.

    Income gap 1st semester

    2006 2009 2012

    TOTAL COST OF ERADICATING POVERTY (in pesos)

    29.3%

    PhP 2,292

    29.3 Income gap

    79.7 B Among all poor families

    for the entire 1st semester

    2,292 For a poor family of five,

    per month

    50.7 B 63.1 B

    1,681 2,042

    30.1 29.0

    III. Latest Poverty and Inequality Statistics

  • Across the bottom 30% of families, incomes rose by an

    average of 11.7 percent, which is practically the same as

    inflation, between the 1st semesters of 2009 and 2012 .

    Indicator 1st sem

    2009

    1st sem

    2012 % Change

    Inflation (all items) 116.1 130.1 12.06

    Mean/average per capita income (APCI)

    First decile class

    4,356

    4,840 11.1

    Second decile class 6,883 7,685 11.7

    Third decile class 8,902 9,984 12.2

    11.7

    Poverty Incidence (among families) 22.86 22.32 (0.54)

    Annual Per Capita Poverty Threshold 8,448 9,385 11.09

    All income groups 21,565 24,326 12.8

    Fourth decile class 11,114 12,549 12.9

    Fifth decile class 13,693 15,589 13.8

    Sixth decile class 17,060 19,453 14.0

    Seventh decile class 21,678 24,786 14.3

    Eight decile class 28,736 32,741 13.9

    Ninth decile class 41,660 47,551 14.1

    Tenth decile class 98,123 107,612 9.7

    First decile class

    4,356 4,840

    11.1

    Second decile class 6,883 7,685 11.7

    Third decile class 8,902 9,984 12.2

    Consumer Price Index (CPI) (all

    items) 116.1 130.1

    11.7%

    12.1%

    III. Latest Poverty and Inequality Statistics

  • During the 1st semesters of 2006, 2009, and 2012, the

    bottom 20 percent of families have a share of about 6

    percent of the total income in the country; whereas the

    upper 20% have a share of nearly 50% of total income.

    INCOME DECILE 1st sem

    2006

    1st sem

    2009

    1st sem

    2012

    PERCENTAGE POINT

    CHANGE

    1st sem 06-09 1st sem 09-12

    FIRST

    SECOND

    NINTH

    TENTH

    FIRST TO THIRD 10.3 11.1 10.9 0.8 -0.2

    0.2 0.0

    0.3 -0.1 THIRD 4.3 4.6 4.5 0.3 -0.1

    FOURTH TO

    SEVENTH 28.5

    28.8 28.9 0.3

    0.1 FOURTH 5.2 5.4 5.4 0.2 0.0 FIFTH 6.2 6.3 6.4 0.1 0.1 SIXTH 7.6 7.7 7.7 0.1 0.0 SEVENTH 9.5 9.4 9.4 -0.1 0.0

    EIGHTH TO TENTH 61.4 60.4 60.0 -1.0 -0.3 EIGHTH 12.1 11.9 12.0 -0.2 0.2

    -0.4 -0.1

    -0.3 -0.4

    FIRST 2.5 2.7 2.7

    SECOND 3.5 3.8 3.8

    NINTH 16.6 16.1 16.0

    TENTH 32.7 32.4 32.0

    6%

    50%

    III. Latest Poverty and Inequality Statistics

  • The total income of the top 20% of families is

    approximately 8 times of the total income of the

    bottom 20% of families in the first semesters of 2006,

    2009, and 2012.

    INCOME DECILE 1st sem

    2006

    1st sem

    2009

    1st sem

    2012

    PERCENTAGE POINT

    CHANGE

    1st sem 06-09 1st sem 09-12

    Ratio of Top

    20% over

    Bottom 20%

    8.21 7.44 7.50 -0.77 0.06

    8 times

    INCOME DECILE 1st sem

    2006

    1st sem

    2009

    1st sem

    2012

    PERCENTAGE POINT

    CHANGE

    1st sem 06-09 1st sem 09-12

    Ratio of Top 30%

    over Bottom 30%

    5.97 5.45 5.50 -0.52 0.05

    Ratio of Top 10%

    over Bottom 10%

    13.12 12.06 12.07 -1.05 0.01

    Ratio of Top

    20% over

    Bottom 20%

    8.21 7.44 7.50 -0.77 0.06

    8 times

    III. Latest Poverty and Inequality Statistics

  • 18 Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

    III. Latest Poverty and Inequality Statistics

    Year Gini coefficient

    2003 0.4605

    2006 0.4580

    2009 0.4484

    Gini coefficient based on the full year FIES

    barely changed since 2003

    Source: National Statistics Office

  • 1. Small Area Estimates of Poverty

    In response to the need for poverty statistics at lower levels of disaggregation, the NSCB, with funding

    assistance from the World Bank implemented three

    projects on small area estimation (SAE) to generate

    poverty incidences at the city/municipal levels.

    NSCB-WB Project Reference year of city/municipal level poverty estimates

    Year Released

    1. Poverty Mapping in the

    Philippines

    2000 2005

    2. Intercensal Updating of Small

    Area Poverty Estimates

    2003 2008

    3. Generation of the 2006 and 2009

    Small Area Estimate of Poverty

    2009 2012

    2006 To be released in

    June 2013

    19 Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

    IV. Efforts on Improving Relevance of Poverty Statistics

  • 1. Small Area Estimates of Poverty (cont.)

    The Elbers, Lanjouw and Lanjouw (ELL) Methodology was

    modified to generate intercensal City and Municipal level

    Poverty Statistics

    2007 Census of

    Population and Housing

    2009 Family Income and

    Expenditure Survey

    2009 Labor Force Survey

    poverty estimates for 1,622 cities and municipalities of the country for 2009 were released in July 2012 by the NSCB.

    2009 City and

    Municipal Level

    Poverty Statistics

    based on SAE

    20 Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

    IV. Efforts on Improving Relevance of Poverty Statistics

  • 1. Small Area Estimates of Poverty (cont.)

    21 Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

    IV. Efforts on Improving Relevance of Poverty Statistics

  • 2. GIS-based Poverty Mapping based on available

    Administrative Records

    useful to local government units specially in locating priority areas and describing their conditions

    initially produced poverty maps for the provinces of Laguna and Albay

    started at producing poverty maps for the poorest provinces for the year 2003 (dependent on the availability of financial resources and on the data support from the local government units)

    33 provincial poverty maps are currently covered by the NSCB Regional Divisions (present only in 9 of the 17 regions of the country)

    IV. Efforts on Improving Relevance of Poverty Statistics

  • Sample Map for Zamboanga del Norte

    Provincial index

    =100

    Poverty Index (Malnutrition)

    Zamboanga del Norte

    IV. Efforts on Improving Relevance of Poverty Statistics

  • Need to have more frequent poverty statistics to have

    more timely interventions

    With National Economic Development Authority

    (NEDA), leading the inititative the DBM will fund the

    2013 Annual Poverty Indicator Survey (APIS), that will

    include an income module of the FIES

    2013 APIS to be implemented in July 2013

    The NSCB, in turn, shall generate corresponding poverty

    estimates (at the national level), within one month after

    the provision of the 2013 APIS data file.

    3. Annual Estimates of Poverty

    IV. Efforts on Improving Relevance of Poverty Statistics

  • 4. Communicating Philippine Poverty Statistics

    4.1 One of the major areas of concern of the:

    - Philippine Statistical Development Program 2011-

    2017 (i.e., the Philippines 8th series of the NSDS) - Technical Committee on Poverty Statistics - NSCB Executive Board

    4.2 Philippine Poverty Statistics Portal

    - http://www.nscb.gov.ph/poverty/portal_/

    - to serve as a one-stop web portal on information

    and statistics on poverty

    - to communicate official poverty statistics and other

    related poverty indicators to a wider audience

    4.3 Users/Producers Forums - Press Conferences

    - National Convention on Statistics

    - National Statistics Month

    25 Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

    IV. Efforts on Improving Relevance of Poverty Statistics

  • Communicating Poverty Statistics (cont.)

    4.4 Web articles

    - Beyond the Numbers by Dr. Jose Ramon G. Albert (http://www.nscb.gov.ph/beyondthenumbers/2012/10082012_jrg

    a_ofw.asp)

    - Statistically Speaking by Dr. Romulo A. Virola (http://www.nscb.gov.ph/headlines/StatsSpeak/default.asp_)

    Presents viewpoints and perspectives of the members of the NSCB Technical Staff on statistical concerns

    Seeks to assist the users by informing, enlightening, and guiding

    - Sexy Statistics (http://www.nscb.gov.ph/sexystats/default.asp)

    One of the efforts of the NSCBTechnical Staff (TS) to make our statistics sexy

    Presents special tabulations and computations done by the NSCB TS not only in response to various data

    requests of our stakeholders but also to present

    statistics on current issues

    26 Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

    IV. Efforts on Improving Relevance of Poverty Statistics

  • Ensure independence and freedom from political affairs

    Regular generation of small area estimates of poverty

    a. Geographical (i.e., at the city, municipal,

    congressional district levels)

    b. Sectoral (PWDs, indigenous peoples)

    Harmonization/standardization of existing statistical frameworks on poverty reduction statistics (e.g.,

    official poverty statistics, National Household

    Targeting System for Poverty Reduction (NHTS-PR),

    community-based monitoring systems (CBMS),

    among others) ;

    V. Challenges to the Philippine Statistical System

    27 Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

  • Non-income indicators of poverty

    Communicating official poverty statistics towards more actual policy uses;

    Well-being/Happiness of the poor;

    AND THE LIST GOES ON AND ON BUT (next

    slide)

    V. Challenges to the Philippine Statistical System

    28 Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

  • 1. There is a need for statistical capacity building, specially of

    the line agencies and local government units (LGUs)

    Many LGUs do not have a statistical unit or statistical personnel; Low compensation scheme for statistical personnel; Non-statisticians doing statistical work.

    2. Statistics must be demand-driven; policy makers must

    translate statistics into actual/working programs and

    policies

    3. Statistical agencies must be relevant to stakeholders

    4. There is a great need for more resources for statistics,

    specially manpower.

    TO AID THE PHILIPPINE STATISTICAL SYSTEM IN RESPONDING

    TO THESE MANY DEMANDS/CHALLENGES:

    29 Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

    V. Challenges to the Philippine Statistical System

  • Quality Education: Reduce classroom gap to zero in 2013 to support the K+12 Program

    Major Program/Projects OutputsAmount (In

    Million Pesos)

    Basic Educational Facilities 25,268

    a. Schoolbuilding Program for Areas

    w/ Acute Classrooms Shortage 17,638 classrooms 14,110

    b. Repair/Rehab of Classrooms 3,850 classrooms 1,155

    c. Construction of Water &

    /Sanitation Facilities 90,461 facilities 5,428

    d. School Furniture Program 639,185 seats 575

    e. PPP Amortization

    9,301 classrooms

    446,448 seats 4,000

    Regular Schoolbuilding Program 1,000 classrooms 1,000

    VI. Poverty Reduction Programs

  • Quality Education: Close teacher and textbook gap by 2013 to support K+12 and install support mechanisms for basic education system

    Major Program/Projects Outputs Amount (In Million Php)

    Creation of Teaching Positions 61,510 teaching

    positions 14,538

    Creation of Non-Teaching Positions 3,500 non-teaching

    positions

    730

    Procurement of Textbooks & Teachers' Manual

    31.1M textbooks & teachers manual 1,493

    GASTPE 1.0 million students 6,974 Universalization of Kindergarten Education 1,386,683 students 1,680 Provision for school operations 45,971 schools 196,948

    VI. Poverty Reduction Programs

  • Social Protection: Cover all indigent households in 4Ps b 2016; provide meaningful social protection packages

    Major Program/Projects OutputsAmount (In

    Million Pesos)

    Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program 3.8M Households 44,256

    Supplemental Feeding

    1.7M daycare

    children 2,961

    Social Protection for Indigent Senior

    Filipino Citizens 232,868 SC 1,533

    Self-Employment Assistance-

    Kaunlaran (SEA-K) 128,355 Families 1,797

    Kapit Bisig Laban sa Kahirapan -

    Comprehensive and Integrated

    Delivery of Social Services

    3,404 barangays to

    be assisted 650

    Emergency Housing Assistance

    Program for Calamity Victims

    3,450

    beneficiaries 621

    Quick Response Fund 3,865

    Calamity Fund 7,500

    VI. Poverty Reduction Programs

  • Universal Health Care : Covers all Q1 and Q2 households under universal health care by 2016; attain health related MDGs

    Major Program/Projects OutputsAmount (In

    Million Pesos)

    National Health Insurance Program (NHIP) 5.2M Households 12,612

    Health Facilities Enhancement Program (HFEP)

    2,722 Facilities (Infrastructure

    & Equipment) 13,558

    Attaining the Health-Related MDGs

    of which:

    a. Doctors to the Barrios Program 270101 Medical Professionals 2,799

    b. Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) 2,683,380 children 1,950

    c. TB Control 46,694 cases treated 1,021

    d. National Pharmaceutical Policy Development 1,377 LGUs & 160 Hospitals 1,038

    e. Elimination of Disease 570

    f. Other Infectious Disease

    w/ provision of ARV treatment

    to 6,056 HIV infected people 321

    g. Family Health and Responsible Parenting 2,539

    VI. Poverty Reduction Programs

  • Housing Program: Provide decent affordable housing to

    informal settlers

    Major Program/Projects OutputsAmount (In

    Million Pesos)Regular Housing Programs 5,010

    Resettlement Program 35,652 HHs 4,882

    Settlements (Slum) Upgrading

    Program 2,975 HHs 128 Special Housing Programs 15,742

    Housing Resettlement for ISFs

    Living in Danger Areas in Metro

    Manila 20,000 HHs 10,120

    AFP/PNP/BFP/BJMP/BuCor Housing 20,000 HHs 5,622

    Community Mortgage Program 30,000 HHs 1,000

    VI. Poverty Reduction Programs

  • NSCB http://www.ncsb.gov.ph/

    DBM http://www.dbm.gov.ph/

    35

    Maraming Salamat po!

  • Indicators

    Official Statistics Difference

    2003 2006 2009 03-06 06-09

    Annual Per Capita Food Threshold

    (Php)

    7,577 9,257 11,686 21.6%

    26.2%

    Annual Per Capita Poverty Threshold

    (Php)

    10,976 13,348 16,841

    Among families

    Subsistence Incidence (%) 8.2 8.7 7.9 0.50 (0.80)

    Magnitude of Food Poor (in million) 1.4 1.5 1.5

    0.10 0.00

    Poverty Incidence (%) 20.0 21.1 20.9 1.10 (0.20)

    Magnitude of Poor (in million) 3.3 3.7 3.9 0.40 0.20

    Among individuals

    Subsistence Incidence (%) 11.1 11.7 10.8 0.60 (0.90)

    Magnitude of Food Poor (in million) 8.8 9.9 9.4

    1.10 (0.50)

    Poverty Incidence (%) 24.9 26.4 26.5 1.50 0.10

    Magnitude of Poor (in million) 19.8 22.2 23.1 2.40 0.90 36 Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

    III. Latest Poverty Statistics

  • . Poverty and the MDGs

    As of 2009, the Philippines was eight years behind target on poverty

    reduction!

    Only 4 of the countrys 17 regions are ahead of their targets!

    -8.4

    5.0

    0.5

    -2.3

    0.5

    -3.8

    3.2

    -8.3-9.6

    -5.6

    -10.2

    -14.1-12.0

    -8.3

    -4.0

    -20.0

    -15.0

    -10.0

    -5.0

    0.0

    5.0

    10.0

    Philip

    pine

    sNCR

    CAR

    Region

    I

    Region

    II

    Region

    III

    Region

    IV-A

    Region

    IV-B

    Region

    V

    Region

    VI

    Region

    VII

    Region

    VIII

    Region

    X

    Region

    XI

    Region

    XII

    Notes: Time-distance (years): positive (+) time lead (progress is ahead the path to target)

    Negative ( - ) time lag (Progress is behind the path to target)

    The time distance is a new generic statistical measure for analysis and visualization of time series data. This was first

    developed by Prof. Pavle Sicherl of the University of Ljubljana, Slovenia.

    Region IX, Caraga, and ARMM are 27, 21, and 81 years behind the target in 2009.

    37 Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

    III. Latest Poverty Statistics

  • Indicators

    1st Semester Official

    Poverty Statistics

    Difference

    2006 2009 2012 06-09 09-12

    Per Capita Food Threshold (Php) 4,673 5,883 6,549 26.0 11.1

    Per Capita Poverty Threshold (Php) 6,703 8,448 9,385

    Among families

    Subsistence Incidence (%) 10.8 10.0 10.0 -0.8 -0.0

    Poverty Incidence (%) 23.4 22.9 22.3 -0.5 -0.5

    Among individuals

    Subsistence Incidence (%) 14.2 13.3 13.4 -0.9 0.1

    Poverty Incidence (%) 28.8 28.6 27.9 -0.2 -0.7

    38 Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

    III. Latest Poverty Statistics

  • I. Overview of the Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

    Executive Order 352

    Designation of Statistical Activities that will Generate

    Critical Data for Decision-making of the Government and the

    Private Sector

    Issued on July 1, 1996

    Technical Committee on Poverty Statistics (TC PovStat)

    - in charge of the formulation/development of the official

    poverty estimation methodology

    National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB)

    - Mandated to generate and release the countrys official

    poverty statistics

    Legal Basis

    39 Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

  • I. Overview of the Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

    Institutional Arrangements in the Computation of

    Poverty Statistics

    Food and Nutrition Research Institute (FNRI) of the

    Ministry of Science and Technology

    - low-cost and nutritionally adequate provincial food

    bundles

    Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) of the Ministry of

    Agriculture

    - prices of agricultural commodities

    National Statistics Office (NSO)

    - prices of agricultural and non-agricultural

    commodities

    - income and expenditures data (FIES)

    40 Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

  • Food thresholds and subsistence incidence (families/population)

    Poverty thresholds and incidence (families/population)

    Magnitude of poor and subsistence poor

    Income and poverty gap, severity of poverty

    OFFICIAL POVERTY STATISTICS/INDICATORS

    Level of disaggregation

    National, regional and provincial

    Frequency

    Thresholds: Annual FGT measures of poverty: Every three years (due to the

    triennial conduct of the FIES)

    I. Overview of the Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

    41 Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

  • Year Refinements Considerations

    1987

    1992 1st Refinements were made so as not to

    overestimate poverty

    2003 2nd Refinements were made to generate

    provincial poverty statistics by using

    regional menus priced using

    provincial prices.

    2010/2011 3rd Refinenements were undertaken to

    enhance comparability of estimates

    across space and over time.

    History of the official poverty estimation methodology

    The 1st official poverty estimation methodology was adopted

    in 1987.

    Between 1987-2011 (24 years), there were three refinements

    on the methodology since its adoption.

    II. Philippines Official Poverty Estimation

    Methodology

    42 Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

  • Actual Prices

    100% RENI for energy

    100% RENI for protein

    80% RENI for vitamins

    and minerals

    PROVINCIAL food bundle

    Farmgate Price

    Food eaten

    in the area

    Retail Price

    LEAST cost Visualizable

    FOOD THRESHOLD

    If income/expenditure of family/individual

    is less than food threshold

    Provincial SUBSISTENCE INCIDENCE

    and MAGNITUDE OF SUBSISTENCE POOR

    National food bundle

    II. Philippines Official Poverty Estimation

    Methodology

    43 Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

  • Meal Time Viands

    Breakfast Scrambled egg

    Boiled rice

    Coffee with milk

    Lunch Boiled monggo with

    malunggay and dried dilis

    Banana, latundan

    Boiled rice

    Dinner Fried tulingan

    Boiled kangkong

    Boiled rice

    Snacks Pandesal

    National reference food bundle from

    the Test of Revealed

    Preference Meal Time Viands

    Breakfast Scrambled egg

    Coffee with milk

    Boiled rice/rice-corn mix

    Lunch Boiled/ginataang monggo with

    malunggay and dried dilis

    Banana

    Boiled rice/corn mix

    Dinner Fried fish/boiled pork

    Vegetable dish

    Boiled rice/rice-corn mix

    Snacks Bread or boiled rootcrop

    Sample translation:

    National Capital Region

    II. Philippines Official Poverty Estimation

    Methodology

    44 Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

  • Non-food threshold Food threshold

    Constant FE/TBE ratio

    POVERTY THRESHOLD

    If income/expenditure of family/individual

    is less than poverty threshold

    Provincial POVERTY INCIDENCE

    and MAGNITUDE OF POOR

    ACTUAL Non-Food Basic

    Needs

    Education

    Clothing & footwear

    Medical care

    Transportation &

    communication

    Fuel, light & water

    Housing

    Housing maintenance &

    other minor repairs

    Non-durable furnishings

    Household operations

    Personal care & effects

    Rental of occupied

    dwelling unit

    II. Philippines Official Poverty Estimation

    Methodology

    45 Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

  • II. Philippines Official Poverty Estimation

    Methodology

    Family size Required income (in PhP)

    Daily Monthly Annual

    1 32 974 11,688

    2 64 1,948 23,376

    3 96 2,922 35,064

    4 128 3,896 46,752

    5 160 4,870 58,440

    6 192 5,844 70,128

    7 224 6,818 81,816

    8 256 7,792 93,504

    Food threshold:

    In 2009, a family of five needed PhP 160 daily income to stay

    out of food poverty! (or approximately 3.36USD)

    46 Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

  • II. Philippines Official Poverty Estimation

    Methodology

    Family size Required income (in PhP)

    Daily Monthly Annual

    1 46 1,403 16,841

    2 92 2,807 33,682

    3 138 4,210 50,523

    4 185 5,614 67,364

    5 231 7,017 84,205

    6 277 8,421 101,046

    7 323 9,824 117,887

    8 369 11,227 134,729

    NATIONAL:

    In 2009, a family of five needed PhP 231 daily income to stay

    out of poverty! (or approximately 4.85USD)

    47 Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

  • II. Philippines Official Poverty Estimation

    Methodology

    Indicators

    Official Statistics Difference

    2003 2006 2009 03-06 06-09

    Among families

    Subsistence Incidence (%) 8.2 8.7 7.9 0.50 (0.80)

    Magnitude of Food Poor (in

    million)

    1.4 1.5 1.5

    0.10 0.00

    Poverty Incidence (%) 20.0 21.1 20.9 1.10 (0.20)

    Magnitude of Poor (in million) 3.3 3.7 3.9 0.40 0.20

    Among individuals

    Subsistence Incidence (%) 11.1 11.7 10.8 0.60 (0.90)

    Magnitude of Food Poor (in

    million)

    8.8 9.9 9.4

    1.10 (0.50)

    Poverty Incidence (%) 24.9 26.4 26.5 1.50 0.10

    Magnitude of Poor (in million) 19.8 22.2 23.1 2.40 0.90

    NATIONAL: Summary While food poverty and poverty deteriorated between 2003 and 2006, these improved between 2006 and 2009 except for the increases in the poverty incidence among population, magnitude

    of poor families and magnitude of poor population.

    The increases, however, were not as much as between 2003 and 2006!

    48 Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

  • II. Philippines Official Poverty Estimation

    Methodology

    . Poverty and the MDGs

    As of 2009, the Philippines was eight years behind target on poverty

    reduction!

    Only 4 of the countrys 17 regions are ahead of their targets!

    -8.4

    5.0

    0.5

    -2.3

    0.5

    -3.8

    3.2

    -8.3-9.6

    -5.6

    -10.2

    -14.1-12.0

    -8.3

    -4.0

    -20.0

    -15.0

    -10.0

    -5.0

    0.0

    5.0

    10.0

    Philip

    pine

    sNCR

    CAR

    Region

    I

    Region

    II

    Region

    III

    Region

    IV-A

    Region

    IV-B

    Region

    V

    Region

    VI

    Region

    VII

    Region

    VIII

    Region

    X

    Region

    XI

    Region

    XII

    Notes: Time-distance (years): positive (+) time lead (progress is ahead the path to target)

    Negative ( - ) time lag (Progress is behind the path to target)

    The time distance is a new generic statistical measure for analysis and visualization of time series data. This was first

    developed by Prof. Pavle Sicherl of the University of Ljubljana, Slovenia.

    Region IX, Caraga, and ARMM are 27, 21, and 81 years behind the target in 2009.

    49 Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

  • 1. Official Poverty Statistics for the Basic Sectors

    NSCB Resolution No. 11, Series of 2007 provides for the official methodology for the estimation of poverty statistics

    for the basic sectors.

    The NSCB computes official poverty statistics for 9 of the 14 disadvantaged sectors of the Philippine Society:

    1. Women;

    2. Youth;

    3. Children;

    4. Senior citizens;

    5. Individuals residing in urban areas;

    6. Migrant and formal sector workers;

    7. Self-employed and unpaid family workers;

    8. Farmers; and

    9. Fishermen.

    Statistics available for 2003, 2006, and 2009.

    III. Efforts on Improving Relevance of Philippine Poverty

    Statistics

    50 Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

  • 1. Official Poverty Statistics for the Basic Sectors (cont.)

    III. Efforts on Improving Relevance of Philippine Poverty

    Statistics

    Variable Data source

    1. Income Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES)

    was used for classifying households as poor

    or non-poor

    2. Sectoral

    characteristic of

    the population

    Labor Force Survey (LFS) was used to assign

    household members into sectors

    3. Total

    population

    Estimated total population of the sector

    based on the FIES and LFS.

    However, for years when the conduct of the

    CPH and FIES coincide, data from the CPH will

    be used (e.g., 2000) to estimate the total

    population for four sectors, namely, women,

    youth, children, and senior citizen.

    Otherwise, data from LFS will be used.

    51 Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

  • 1. Official Poverty Statistics for the Basic Sectors (cont.)

    III. Efforts on Improving Relevance of Philippine Poverty

    Statistics

    Fishermen, farmers, and children comprise the poorest

    three sectors in 2009 with poverty incidences of 41.4%,

    36.7%, and 35.1%, respectively.

    41.4

    36.7 35.1

    25.1

    21.8

    16.7 15.8 12.8

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    Fishermen Farmers Children Women Youth Migrant and Formal Sector

    Senior Citizens Individuals residing in

    urban areas

    Poverty Incidence by Basic Sector: 2003, 2006, and 2009

    2003

    2006

    2009

    52 Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

  • 1. Official Poverty Statistics for the Basic Sectors (cont.)

    III. Efforts on Improving Relevance of Philippine Poverty

    Statistics

    Children, women, and individuals residing in urban areas

    accounted for the largest number of poor population at 12.4,

    11.2, and 5.7 million, respectively in 2009.

    Magnitude of poor population for all sectors increased between

    the period 2006 and 2009 except for farmers and fishermen

    sectors, which had a decrease.

    12,400,000

    11,200,000

    5,709,170 5,367,308

    3,118,701

    1,685,148 1,181,121

    346,345

    0

    2,000,000

    4,000,000

    6,000,000

    8,000,000

    10,000,000

    12,000,000

    14,000,000

    Children Women Urban Youth Migrant and Formal Sector

    Farmers Senior Citizens

    Fishermen

    Magnitude of Poor Among the Basic Sectors: 2003, 2006, and 2009

    2003

    2006

    2009

    53 Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

  • Annual poverty incidences and other measures of poverty;

    More timely official poverty statistics (i.e., regular generation of advance thresholds);

    Regular generation of small area estimates of poverty

    Geographical (i.e., at the city, municipal, congressional district levels)

    Sectoral (PWDs, indigenous peoples)

    Harmonization/standardization of existing statistical frameworks on poverty reduction statistics (e.g., official poverty statistics,

    National Household Targeting System for Poverty Reduction

    (NHTS-PR), community-based monitoring systems (CBMS), among

    others) ;

    Non-income indicators of poverty

    Communicating official poverty statistics towards more actual policy uses;

    Well-being/Happiness of the poor;

    AND THE LIST GOES ON AND ON BUT (next slide)

    IV. Challenges to the Philippine Statistical System

    54 Philippines Official Poverty Statistics

  • 1. There is a need for statistical capacity building, specially of

    the line agencies and local government units (LGUs)

    Many LGUs do not have a statistical unit or statistical personnel; Low compensation scheme for statistical personnel; Non-statisticians doing statistical work.

    2. Statistics must be demand-driven; policy makers must

    translate statistics into actual/working programs and

    policies

    3. Statistical agencies must be relevant to stakeholders

    4. There is a great need for more resources for statistics,

    specially manpower.

    TO AID THE PHILIPPINE STATISTICAL SYSTEM IN RESPONDING

    TO THESE MANY DEMANDS/CHALLENGES:

    IV. Challenges to the Philippine Statistical System

    55 Philippines Official Poverty Statistics