20130401 oiaa airport performance update briefing_v4
TRANSCRIPT
© OLIVER WYMAN
April 1, 2013
Airport Performance & Economic Outlook Update
Ontario Will Continue to Lose Air Service into This Year
Scheduled Seats at Ontario International AirportCompared to Prior Year Same MonthJanuary 2012 – October 2013
1Source: Planestats.com, based on Innovata Flight Schedules as of March 22, 2013
Ontario Will Continue to Lose Air Service into This Year
Percent Change in Carrier Monthly Scheduled Seats at Ontario International AirportCompared to Prior Year Same MonthJanuary – October 2013
2Source: Planestats.com, based on Innovata Flight Schedules as of March 22, 2013
ONT – A Growth Airport Throughout Much of Its History Until Recently2012 passengers at same level as in mid-1980s when Los Angeles acquired the airport
Annual Passengers at ONT (Millions)1980-2012
Source: LAWA 3
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
ONT – A Growth Airport Throughout Much of Its History Until Recently2013 passengers level in danger of dropping below 4 million at current rate of monthly decline
Annual Passengers at ONT (Millions)1980-2012
Source: LAWA Statistics; Johnson Aviation Analysis 4
‐8%
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Inland Empire Population Continues to GrowRiverside and San Bernardino Counties population growth continues despite economic recession
Inland Empire Population Growth (millions)1986-2012
Source: John E. Husing, Ph.D., Inland Empire Quarterly Economic Report, January 2013 5
Inland Empire Employment…”Solid Strong Job Growth” John E. Husing, Ph.D.
Cautious optimism in employment turn around in 2011 and 2012. Employment is up 1.6% for all of 2012 and unemployment is falling.
Source: John E. Husing, Ph.D., Inland Empire Quarterly Economic Report, January 2013 6
Inland Empire Employment Information2011-2012 (through November 2012)
Inland Empire Employment Growth Accelerating“[E]mployment has increased to 1.6%, which is on par with LA County, and only slightly below the state average, Orange County…” Beacon Economics
Source: Beacon Economics 7
Inland Empire Employment Information2011-2012
Inland Empire Employment Growth Accelerating“[E]mployment has increased to 1.6%, which is on par with LA County, and only slightly below the state average, Orange County…” Beacon Economics
Source: Beacon Economics 8
Inland Empire Employment Information2011-2012
Inland Empire Income has Deteriorated over the Last Decade“Most Inland Empire families feel that their purchasing power has declined in recent years. They are right.” John E. Husing, Ph.D.
Sources: John E. Husing, Ph.D., Inland Empire Quarterly Economic Report, January 2013; 1990-2000 Census, 2011 American Community Survey,L.A. Anaheim-Riverside Consumer Price Index 9
Median IncomeInland Empire, Current and Constant Dollar (2011=1001990-2011
10
$1,342
‐ $181
‐ $251 ‐$15 ‐$48
‐$46
$802
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total
Millions
In 2011 US$
Source: Oliver Wyman Analysis
Total Economic Impact of ONT Was $849 Million in 2012Total economic loss of $540 Million versus 2007Total job loss of 10,100 jobs versus 2007
The following slides were presented on February 4, 2012 to the OIAA Board
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
ONT Versus Competing Airports in the Region
Sources: Southern California Airports
Passengers at Southern California Regional Airports (Millions)2000-2012
John Wayne
OntarioBurbank
Long Beach
Palm Springs
2000-2012
14.0%
-36.3%-14.6%
402.6%
33.6%
LAX -5.1%
12
2011-12Change
2.9%
-5.4%-5.7%
2.9%
14.3%
3.0%
Southern California Airport RegionalizationRegional total passengers down 4.7% since 2007; ONT down 40.3%
Passenger Totals of Southern California AirportsLAX, Ontario, Burbank, John Wayne, Long Beach, Palm Springs
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
Mill
ion
Ann
ual P
asse
nger
s
LAX
Ontario
Burbank
John Wayne
Long Beach
Palm Springs
LAX 67.30 61.61 56.22 54.98 60.70 61.49 61.04 62.44 59.82 56.52 59.07 61.86 63.69
Ontario 6.76 6.70 6.52 6.55 6.94 7.21 7.05 7.21 6.23 4.89 4.81 4.55 4.31
Burbank 4.75 4.49 4.62 4.73 4.92 5.51 5.69 5.92 5.33 4.59 4.46 4.30 4.06
John Wayne 7.77 7.32 7.90 8.54 9.27 9.63 9.61 9.98 8.99 8.71 8.66 8.61 8.86
Long Beach 0.64 0.59 1.45 2.88 2.93 3.03 2.76 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.98 3.12 3.21
Palm Springs 1.28 1.18 1.11 1.25 1.37 1.42 1.53 1.61 1.54 1.47 1.50 1.51 1.73
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Southern California Airports
© OLIVER WYMAN © OLIVER WYMAN
Passenger Share of Southern California AirportsLAX, Ontario, Burbank, John Wayne, Long Beach, Palm Springs
Southern California Airport RegionalizationLAX’s market share has steadily increased since 2007, and is the same as in 1990
Source: Southern California Airports14
ONT in Perspective
2000-2012 Passenger Growth Comparison Indexed to 2000=1.00
Sources: Southern California Airports, BTS
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
U.S. average
ONT
LAX
LA Area
15
ONT Passengers Declined by 5.4% in 2012Passenger decline is less than the 7.0% decline in number of seats
Sources: ONT airport stats; OAG; U.S. DOT T100 reports
2012, 2011, 2007 ONT Annual Passengers and Load Factors
16
ONT – A Growth Airport throughout Much of Its History Until Recently2012 passengers at same level as in mid-1980s when Los Angeles acquired the airport
Annual Passengers at ONT (Millions)1980-2012
Source: LAWA 17
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Ontario Will Continue to Lose Air Service into This Year
Scheduled Seats at Ontario International AirportCompared to Prior Year Same MonthJanuary 2012 – July 2013
Source: OAG, as of January 27, 2013 18
Within the Region, only LAX and ONT Handle Significant Air Cargo
Annual Air Cargo Tons (Freight and Mail)
ANNUAL CARGO TONS YE JULY 2012
LAX 1,640,116
ONT 412,153
SNA 19,779
LGB 25,056
BUR 43,637
PSP 102
Source: US DOT cargo statistics from T100
Nearly all ONT cargo is carried by UPS and FedExAll international cargo is carried by UPS
Source: LAWA cargo statistics for ONT 2012
ONT Air Cargo - % Carried by Each Airline2012
National cargo trend fell through 2009 and has rebounded somewhat
-0.2% -10.5% -8.9% 8.5% -1.7% -0.6%
Source: US DOT cargo statistics from T100
Annual Air Cargo Tons (Freight and Mail)
Different air cargo growth patterns at ONT and LAX- Consistent ONT growth since 2009 low, although volume still 16.6% below 2005- LAX growth uneven since 2009; 2012 volume is down 6.6% from 2005
ONT Annual Air Cargo Tons (Freight and Mail) LAX
Annual Air Cargo Tons (Freight and Mail)
Source: LAWA cargo statistics
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