2013 workshop-on-intelligence
DESCRIPTION
see also the keynoteTRANSCRIPT
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ON INTELLIGENCE
Workshop 2.6
http://tinyurl.com/2013-Steele
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ON INTELLIGENCE: Whole of Government, Whole Earth,NATO, SOF, & Doing the Right Thing
Robert David STEELE VivasEarth Intelligence Network, Phi Beta Iota Public Intelligence Blog
The Truth at Any Cost Reduces All Other Costs.
A discourse rooted entirely in my personal experience since 1976 (strategy, policy, acquisition, operations, & intelligence).
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Sadly, we must never, ever, [ever] underestimate the capacity of the Americans to think of new wrong things to try before they might get it right.
The Americans always do the right thing..….they just try everything else first.
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On the Shoulders of Others(There is a need) to recognize that just as the essence of knowledge is not as split up into academic disciplines as it is in our academic universe, so can intelligence not be set apart from statecraft and society, or subdivided into elements...such as analysis and estimates, counter intelligence, clandestine collection, covert action, and so forth.
Rather … intelligence is a scheme of things entire. (Bozeman 1998: 177).
The intelligence institutions have neglected support of judgment. This is partly due to being disinvited to help shape the sovereign’s judgment, but also partly due to mistaking who the sovereign has become. The people’s judgment is now being poisoned by ideologues who have filled the void.
The situation is not honestly and soberly appreciated. Societal sense-making suffers due to the failure of the intelligence function and the craft to support it. (Senior US serving officer, 2012)
Reformations and transformations are not the same thing. Reformations are concerned with changing the means systems employ to pursue their objectives. Transformations involve changes in the objectives they pursue. (Ackoff, 2004)
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Admiral James G. Stavridis, USNFormer NATO SACEUR
Open Source SecurityImagine global security driven by collaboration -- among agencies, government, the private sector and the public. That's not just the distant hope of open-source fans, it's the vision of James Stavridis, a highly accomplished Navy Admiral. Stavridis shares vivid moments from recent military history to explain why security of the future should be built with bridges rather than walls.
What will 21st-century security look like? Navy Admiral James Stavridis suggests that dialogue and openness will be the game-changers.
We must build bridges. Sharing information is how we connect everything.
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Brigadier General Ferdinand Irizarry IIDeputy Commanding General
USAJFK Special Warfare Center and School
• First Active Duty Civil Affairs Colonel to make flag since WWII
• First Commanding Officer of the first US Army Civil Affairs Brigade since WWII
• Earned Executive Agency for the Joint Civil Affairs Information Management System
• Positioned to nurture White SOF to co-equal status with Black SOF, a vision articulated by General Peter Schoomaker, USA, then CINCSOC (1997)
• LACKING: USG Whole of Government PPBS and global whole systems analytic model
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ON INTELLIGENCETheory of Intelligence
To what end?
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Theory of Intelligence ITheory of Knowledge (Epistemology)
Intelligence Is:• Actionable Answers• Decision-Support• Evidence-Based• Holistic ProcessIntelligence Is Not:• Applied Knowledge• Beliefs in Isolation• Consciousness• Covert Action• Espionage• Secret Information• Wisdom
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Intelligence should not be defined by Inputs• Requirements• Sources• Processing• Analysis• Production• Covert Action• Being Wrong
Theory of Intelligence IIPurpose, Not Process
Intelligence should be defined by Outputs. • Answers to Specific
Questions• Appraisals of
Specific Situations• Forecasts of Specific
Factors in Context• Being Right
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What Form Might Intelligence Be?
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Intelligence for Peace & Prosperity
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Illuminate True Costs
Eradicate Corruption
Educate All Publics
Harmonize Field Effects
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ON INTELLIGENCEStrategic Intelligence
For future generations…
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Whole Systems Analytics
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What Threats Should We Consider?01 Poverty 02 Infectious Disease 03 Environmental Degradation 04 Inter-State Conflict 05 Civil War 06 Genocide 07 Other Atrocities 08 Proliferation 09 Terrorism
10 Transnational Crime
High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges, & Change (including LtGen Dr. Brent Scowcroft), A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility (United Nations, December 2004)
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What Strategies & Policies Apply?01 Agriculture 02 Diplomacy 03 Economy 04 Education 05 Energy 06 Family 07 Health 08 Immigration 09 Justice
10 Security 11 Society 12 Water
Mandate for
Change
Various Presidential Transition Teams
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Preliminary Holistic Analytic Model
Core Gaps in Holistic AnalysisEssential to Future-Proofing
What US IC Focuses On.. Nigeria
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Who Owns the Future?Demography Rules [Minister-Mentor Lee Kuan Yew]
Projected for 2050
India 1.7BChina 1.3BUSA 0.4BNigeria 0.4BIndonesia 0.3BPakistan 0.3BBrazil 0.22BBangladesh 0.19BPhilippines 0.15BCongo DR 0.15BEthiopia 0.15BMexico 0.14BTanzania 0.14BRussia 0.13BEgypt 0.12BJapan 0.11BViet-Nam 0.10BKenya 0.96BUganda 0.94BTurkey 0.91B
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Evolutionary Path for Intelligence
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Utility of Open SourcesEconomic and social threats, including 95%• Poverty 99%• Infectious Disease 95%• Environmental Degradation 90%
Interstate conflict 75%
Internal conflict, including 90%• Civil War 85%• Genocide 95%• Other Large-Scale Atrocities 95%
Nuclear, radiological, chemical, and biological WMD 75%
Terrorism 80%
Transnational organized crime 80%2008 Open Source Intelligence [in Loch Johnson (ed) Strategic Intelligence Vol 2. Chapter 6]
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Context & Process for Intelligence
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Policy Intelligence
Greatest good for the greatest number.
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Why Is Intelligence So Feeble?Money, Sex, & Spotlight Trump Secrets
Greg Treverton (1986)
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Four Distinct Threat Classes
Understood from 1988 Less Cyber, Cyber Added 1992.BOTH US IC Leaders and DoD Leaders (Cheney) Refused to Acknowledge
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Preliminary Holistic Analytic Model
Core Gaps in Holistic AnalysisEssential to Future-Proofing
What US IC Focuses On..
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Full-Spectrum Intelligence
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US Nuclear Plants in Flood Zones US Nuclear Plants in Earthquakes Zones
Not Addressed Above: Aquifer Draw & Contamination, Surface Water Contamination
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STRATEGIC
TECHNICAL
Long Term (100 Years)
Imminent
1 Year Out
90 Days Out
72 Hours Out
4 Years Out
25 Years Out
12 Years Out
Whole of Government Institutions*
Cross-Cutting Threats & Policies
OPERATIONAL
TACTICAL* In Order of Secession to Presidency** Cabinet Rank Not In Succession
Pove
rty
Infe
ctiou
s D
isea
seEn
viro
nmen
tal D
egra
datio
nIn
ter-
Stat
e Co
nflic
tCi
vil W
arG
enoc
ide
Oth
er A
troc
ities
Prol
ifera
tion
Terr
oris
mTr
ansn
ation
al C
rime
Agric
ultu
reD
iplo
mac
yEc
onom
yEd
ucati
onEn
ergy
Fam
ilyH
ealth
Imm
igra
tion
Justi
ceSe
curit
ySo
ciet
yW
ater
PresidentVice PresidentStateTreasuryD
efenseJusticeInteriorAgricultureCom
merce
LaborH
ealth & H
uman Services
Housing &
Urban D
evelopment
TransportationEnergyEducationVeterans AffairsH
omeland Security
Environmental Protection A
gency**O
ffice of M
anagement &
Budget**U
S Trade Representative**U
S Ambassador to the U
N**
Council of Economic Advisors**
Small Business Adm
inistration**
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Human Intelligence
Human, the Force is…
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Government
Military
Law Enforcement
Business
Civil Societies
Media
Academia
Non-Profit
InformationCommons
Secret Internal
Secret Shared
Sensitive Shared
Open (Public)
GreenYellowOrangeRed
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Human Information Pathologies
CensoringCheating CultureFog FactsForbidden KnowledgeForgotten KnowledgeIncestuous AmplificationLiesLost History
Manufacturing ConsentMissing InformationPropagandaRule by SecrecyWeapons of Mass DeceptionWeapons of Mass Instruction
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Humans Matter More!
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Fragmentation of Academic Knowledge
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Languages In (Discovery)Languages Out (Sharing)
Six UN LanguagesArabicChineseEnglishFrenchRussianSpanish
Practical Experience33 Core12 Arabic
Minimum for Global Coverage183
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Counter-Intelligence• Counterintelligence should be the center of gravity for
the future of secret intelligence.• Counterintelligence must focus on our domestic
enemies more so than our foreign enemies. • Counterintelligence must be able to expose and destroy
domestic political and financial traitors.• Offensive counterintelligence is not being done and
needs to be a long-term endeavor.• Counterintelligence cannot overcome the
irresponsibility of NSA and others who refuse to be serious about cyber-security or even cyber-integrity.
• The FBI is an ineffective and compromised bureaucracy.
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Acquisition Intelligence
Where, when, & how will this be used?
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Force Structure Should Meet Needs
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Holistic Analytics for Intelligence
C4I
INF
ENG
ARM
AVN
CSS
ARTY
AAA
LOG IO SPC
SEA
CIV
C4I
INF
ENG
ARM
AVN
CSS
ARTY
AAA
LOG IO SPC
SEA
CIV
C4I
INF
ENG
ARM
AVN
CSS
ARTY
AAA
LOG IO SPC
SEA
CIV
C4I
INF
ENG
ARM
AVN
CSS
ARTY
AAA
LOG IO SPC
SEA
CIV
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Acquisition Generalizations1. All Countries or Some Countries?2. Coastal & Capital Areas & Main Channels or All Areas?3. Warfighting Only or Full-Spectrum Peace & Relief Also?4. Worst-Case Everything or Holistic Balance?5. C4I Assumed or Mandated?6. Continuous Threat Support to All Mission Areas?7. Operational Test & Evaluation? With/Without FORMAT?
• Threat is both conventional and unconventional
• Ground threat complex & lethal• Air threat night/all-weather and
integrated air defense systems• Naval threat from coastal guns
and missiles severe • Insurgencies are a constant
• Mountains, deserts, jungle, and urban environments require distinct approaches
• Majority of the operational areas are hot and humid, standard aviation limited
• Cross-country mobility a show-stopper• Line of sight distance under 1,000 meters• Bridge-loading & tunnel clearance issues• 50% ports not usable, C-130 fields most
common—we lack long-haul air• Cultural terrain far beyond our ken
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Threat Changes: T-72 in Libya
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Doing Intelligence
What do we need to know, when, in what fashion, for optimal total sustainable effect?
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Fundamentals of Intelligence
1. Whole of Government Decision-Support
2. Holistic Analytics with True Cost Economics
3. Counterintelligence on Domestic Enemies
4. Integrated Scalable IT5. Open Requirements
Showing Satisfaction & Connecting Clients
6. Spend with Integrity
25 Years – US$1.2 TrillionStill Do Not Have This!
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RQMTSDEF
Asst Scty A
Mission AM
issi
on C
Mission D
Mission B
Requirements Definition• From Each Functional Area• For Each Mission Type
COLL.MGMT
HUMINT/OSINT
SIGINT
IMIN
T
MASIN
T
Country A
Coun
try
C Country D
Country B
Collection Management• To Each Collection Discipline• Specifics and Deadlines
EVALUA-TION
HUMINT/OSINT
SIGINT
IMIN
T
MASIN
T
Country A
Coun
try
C Country D
Country B
Evaluation• Of Each Collection Discipline• Specifics and Deadlines
CAPAB.BLDG.
HUMINT/OSINT
SIGINT
IMIN
T
MASIN
T
Mission A
Mis
sion
C
Mission D
Mission B
Program Development• Of Your Organic Capabilities• Unique to Function/Mission Support
Step 1 Step 4
Step 3
Step 2External Satisfies
External Fails THEREFOREYour-Specific Capabilities Required & Put Into PPBS. Keep OMB Informed.
Asst Scty B
Asst
Sct
y B
Asst Scty D
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001 Decision-Support is the Raison D'être002 Value-Added Comes from Analysis, Not Secret Sources003 Global Coverage Matters More004 Non-Traditional Threats Are of Paramount Importance005 Intelligence w/o Translation is Ignorant006 Source Balance Matters More007 "Two Levels Down“008 Processing Matters More, Becomes Core Competency009 Cultural Intelligence is Fundamental010 Geospatial and Time Tagging is Vital011 Global Open Source Benchmarking012 Counterintelligence Matters More
New Rules013 Cross-Fertilization Matters More014 Decentralized Intelligence Matters More015 Collaborative Work and Informal Communications Rise016 New Value is in Content + Context + Speed017 Collection Based on Gaps versus Priorities018 Collection Doctrine Grows in Sophistication019 Citizen "Intelligence Minutemen" are Vital020 Production Based on Needs versus Capabilities021 Strategic Intelligence Matters More022 Budget Intelligence Is Mandatory023 Public Intelligence Drives Public Policy024 Analysts are Managers025 New Measures of Merit026 Multi-Lateral Burden-Sharing is Vital
2004 NEW RULES for the New Craft of Intelligence
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Feeding the High SideGwyn Whitaker & Robert Steele (2005)
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Open Source Everything (OSE)
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Six Bubbles
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Technology Architecture
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Analytic Tool-Kit for IntelligenceDiane Webb et al (1986)
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Multinational - Strategic
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Multinational - Operational
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Local to Global Range of Needs Table
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Wild Card: The Virgin TruthThe Virgin Truth gains first-mover advantage with OSE – delivering public knowledge faster, better, cheaper while earning profit.
The Virgin Truth will help eradicate the 50% that is fraud, waste, and abuse, and profit from being the hub for an educated public.
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Wild Card: NATO“Open Source Security”
1st of 3 Multinational Decision-Support Centres
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United NationsAssistant Secretary General
Open-Source Decision-SupportDirector
Open Source AgencyDirector
World Brain Institute
DirectorOpen Source Consortium
DirectorThe Virgin
Truth
NATO/ACTDirector
Human Factors Program
Autonomous InternetOpen Source EverythingLiberation Technology
African Union Intelligence Network
Community of Latin American and
Caribbean States Intelligence Network
(Asian) Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Intelligence
Network
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The truth at any cost lowers all other costs.
BE the Force!