2013 Texas SDC/BIDC

Conference for Data Users

May 22, 2013Austin, Texas

Texas Population, Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

2

Percent Change Due to

Year* PopulationNumerical

ChangePercentChange

NaturalIncrease

NetMigration

1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- --

1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 24.2 93.91 6.09

1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 16.9 86.74 13.26

1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 27.1 41.58 58.42

1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 19.9 65.85 34.15

2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 22.8 49.65 50.35

2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6 54.94 45.06

2012 26,059,203 913,642 3.6 52.05 47.95

* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2011 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2012

3

Total Estimated Population by County, 2012

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2012 Population Estimates

Along and east of I-35: 40% of land 85% of population 92% of population growth (2011-2012)

Legend

POPESTIMATE2012

71-10,000

10,001-50,000

50,001-100,000

100,001-500,000

500,001-1,000,000

1,000,001-4,253,700

4

Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Census Counts

Legend

co48_d00

'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpopch0010

-3,200 - 0

1 - 10,000

10,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 700,000

79 counties lost population over the decade

5

Change of the Total Population by County, 2010 to 2012

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2012 Vintage.

96 counties lost population over the two year period

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

popchg4201072012

LT 0

1-1,000

1,001-20,000

20,001-80,000

80,001-161,252

Of counties that lost population90% had net out migration47% had natural decline

6

The 10 Fastest Growing Metro AreasIncrease from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012

PercentIncrease

1. Midland, Texas 4.62. Clarksville, Tenn.-Ky. 3.7

3. Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Fla. 3.6

4. The Villages, Fla. 3.4

5. Odessa, Texas 3.46. Jacksonville, N.C. 3.3

7. Austin-Round Rock, Texas 3.08. Casper, Wyo. 3.0

9. Columbus, Ga.-Ala. 2.9

10. Manhattan, Kan. 2.8

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012

7

The 10 Counties with the Largest Numeric Increase from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012

NumericIncrease

1. Harris, Texas 80,005

2. Los Angeles, Calif. 73,764

3. Maricopa, Ariz. 73,644

4. Dallas, Texas 45,827

5. San Diego, Calif. 38,880

6. King, Wash. 35,838

7. Travis, Texas 34,381

8. Orange, Calif. 34,017

9. Tarrant, Texas 32,997

10. Clark, Nev. 32,833

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013

8http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html

9http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html

10http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html

11http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html

12

Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010

Under 1 year13 years 26 years 39 years 52 years 65 years 78 years 91 years0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

White (non-Hispanic) Hispanic

Age

Popu

latio

n

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

13Under 1 year

4 years8 years

12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years

100 to 104 years

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

NH White Male NH White Female

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

14Under 1 year

4 years8 years

12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years

100 to 104 years

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male Hispanic FemaleNH Black Female NH Asian Female NH Other Female

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

15Under 1 year

4 years8 years

12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years

100 to 104 years

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

NH White Male Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male NH White FemaleHispanic Female NH Black Female NH Asian Female NH Other Female

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

16

20102012

20142016

20182020

20222024

20262028

20302032

20342036

20382040

20422044

20462048

205020,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

55,000,000

60,000,000Zero.5 of 2000-20102000-2010

Migration Scenarios

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections

17

20102012

20142016

20182020

20222024

20262028

20302032

20342036

20382040

20422044

20462048

2050200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

2,200,000Zero.5 of 2000-20102000-2010

Migration Scenarios

Projected Population Growth in Williamson County, Texas 2010-2050

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections

18

20102012

20142016

20182020

20222024

20262028

20302032

20342036

20382040

20422044

20462048

20503,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

5,500,000

6,000,000

6,500,000

7,000,000

7,500,000

8,000,000

Zero.5 of 2000-20102000-2010

Migration Scenarios

Projected Population Growth in HarrisCounty, Texas 2010-2050

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections

19

20102012

20142016

20182020

20222024

20262028

20302032

20342036

20382040

20422044

20462048

20503,200

3,300

3,400

3,500

3,600

3,700

3,800

3,900

Zero

.5 of 2000-2010

2000-2010

Migration Scenarios

Projected Population Growth in DonleyCounty, Texas 2010-2050

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections

20

Projected Racial and Ethnic Population (2000-2010 Scenario), Texas, 2010-2050

20102013

20162019

20222025

20282031

20342037

20402043

20462049

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

NH-WhiteNH-BlackHispanicNH-Other

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

21

Projected Racial and Ethnic Population (.5 Scenario), Texas, 2010-2050

20102013

20162019

20222025

20282031

20342037

20402043

20462049

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

NH-WhiteNH-BlackHispanicNH-Other

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , .5 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

22

Projected Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

F6

-6,200 - 0

1 - 2,000

2,001 - 10,000

10,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 1,000,000

1,000,001 -3,480,000

23

Projected Percent Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

F5

LT 0%

0-40%

41-100%

101-250%

251-500%

24

Texas Population Pyramid, 2010

0-4 years

10-14 years

20-24 years

30-34 years

40-44 years

50-54 years

60-64 years

70-74 years

80-84 years

2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000

FemalesMales

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , .5 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

25

Texas Population Pyramid (.5 Migration Scenario), 2050

0-4 years

10-14 years

20-24 years

30-34 years

40-44 years

50-54 years

60-64 years

70-74 years

80-84 years

2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000

FemalesMales

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , .5 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

26

Texas Population Pyramid (2000-2010 Migration Scenario) , 2050

0-4 years

10-14 years

20-24 years

30-34 years

40-44 years

50-54 years

60-64 years

70-74 years

80-84 years

2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000

FemalesMales

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , .2000-2010 Migration Scenario

27

Counties and places

• averages of estimates – ratio-correlation (births, deaths, elementary

school enrollment, vehicle and voter registration)– component-method II (births, deaths and

elementary school enrollment)– housing-unit method

28

Percent Population Change, Texas Counties, 2011-2012

Source: Texas State Data Center 2013 Population Estimates

Legend

'CO-EST2012-Alldata$'.pct_chg_10_11

-2.1 - 0.0 %

0.1 - 1%

1.1 - 2.5%

2.51 - 5%

5.1 - 17.7%

29

Discussion

• Race/ethnic allocation• Age-Race/Ethnic-Sex• Addition of Asian category• Sub-county projections

30

Contact

Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530Email: Lloyd.Potter@osd.state.tx.usInternet: http://osd.state.tx.us

Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.