2013 skc lecture richard brown
TRANSCRIPT
Transport and Sustainable City Growth
Sir Kenneth Cork Management Lecture
CMI City of London BranchNovember 11th 2013
Richard Brown
Agenda
• Recent travel and population growth in London• Transport's environmental impact• Transport's growth impact• Future growth forecasts• How can this be accommodated? • Conclusions
Recent Population Growth
1983 -2012 2002 - 2012London +23%(+1.6m) +12% (+0.9m)
South East +19%(+1.4m) +8% (+0.7m)
England & Wales +14%(+6m) +7% (+4m)
Source: O.N.S.
Growth in peak central London commuting
1996 – 2008Rail +111,000 +28%Tube +72,000 +22%Bus +37,000 +68%Car -73,000 -51%Cycle +13,000 +160%
Total +163,000 +16%
Source: UK Transport Statistics
The car - a mode on the decline
Growing in popularity – the Underground
Modal share of central London commuting
1996 2008Rail 40% 44%Tube 33% 35%Bus 9% 11%Car 14% 6%Cycle 2% 3%
Environmental performance
London BusLondon Underground
UK Rail
Black Cab
Average petrol car
Average hybrid car
Looks a busy road…
…but when you strip back the metal not many people are moved!
Visual proof that buses are a solution to traffic congestion
Modal performance
How has travel growth been accommodated?
• More trains: 36% (1997-2011)• Tube upgrades:
• Victoria Line = +21% capacity• Northern Line = +20%• Jubilee Line = +20%
• London Overground/Orbital• Javelin High Speed Service on HS1• More buses: +50% (1996 -2012)
Impact of Eurostar and HS1 on growth
• 3.8m French tourists in 2012– No. 1 origin country!
• 350,000 French nationals in London– France’s 6th city
• Regeneration of Kings Cross, Stratford and N. Kent• Estimated £10bn of wider economic benefits• £5.8bn cost
Forecasts for London growth to 2033
• Population: +1m (+13%)….or 50,000
people p.a.
• Jobs +600,000• Households +500,000
Source: London Plan
But other forecasts point to faster growth
• ONS forecast 16% or + 9.0 million growth in England and Wales to 2035
• If London growth continues as before this would imply +26% growth over next 20 years or + 100,000 people each year
• Other commentators, eg Lord Adonis and London Assembly Transport Committee, agree
Crossrail
• £14.8 bn cost. Completion 2018.• Adds 10% to London rail capacity, 4.5% to
total transport capacity.
Thameslink
• £6.0 bn cost. Completion 2018.
• Adds c.6.5% to London rail capacity, 3.0% to total transport capacity.
Future transport capacity increases
Additional capacity Cost Completion Date
Thameslink +3% £6.0 bn 2012-18Crossrail +4.5% £14.8bn 2018Longer trains + electrification +3-5% £12.2 bn 2019HS2 phase 1 +2% £17.2bn 2026HS2 phase 2 - £17.0bn 2032Crossrail 2 ? ? early 2030s?
• Total capacity increase of 12.5 – 14.5%
Conclusions
• Growth and transport inextricability linked
• Transport facilitates and drives growth
• Continuing investment is essential