2013 north atlantic hurricane seasonal forecast ray bell with thanks to joanne camp (met office)
TRANSCRIPT
2013 North Atlantic hurricane seasonal forecast
Ray Bell with thanks to Joanne Camp (met office)
TS has surface wind speeds > 17 m/s (39 mph)H > 33 m/s (74 mph)
• 3 consecutive years of 19 TS.• Active hurricane period that began in 1995 averaged 15 TS, 8 H and 4 MH
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Met Office public forecast
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone/seasonal/northatlantic2013
Slightly more active than normal
0.41
0.42
0.42
Jo Camp
Method
• GloSEA5 (42 members)• ECMWF System 4 (41 members)
• A Simple tracking algorithm (mean sea level pressure based).
• TS, H and ACE calibrated with previous years (hindcasts)
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2013 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
• Statistical forecasts: CSU and TSR predict an active hurricane season
• Dynamical forecasts: ECMWF predict near-normal hurricane season.
Summary Table
S
S
D
D
Jo Camp
9
NOAAD
13-20 7-11 3-6
NOAA Hurricane seasonal outlook
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ENSO forecast
ECMWF GloSea5
Neutral conditions during ASOJo Camp
• CSU predict 72 % chance of MH landfallStatistical relation between seasons activity and landfalling in previous years.
• Land major hurricane landfall Hurricane Wilma 2005 (longest since 1900)
• NOAA – realtime doppler radar on Hurricane hunters which will be used in upgraded HWRF
Intensity forecast
EPAC forecast
• below-normal hurricane season(11 - 16 TS) 15(5 – 8 H) 8(1 – 4 MH) 4
CPAC forecast
• below-normal hurricane season(1 - 3 TS) 4-5
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Tropical Storms: Eastern and Western North Pacific June-November 2013
• Near-average numbers of tropical storms predicted in the Western and Eastern North Pacific
• Forecast skill low
Western Pacific Eastern Pacific