ENERGY TRANSITIONS

festina lente

Vaclav Smil

Marchetti’s substitution model (1977)

Thomas Edison with his favoritevehicle, 1905

Chevrolet Volt: <10,000 sold in 2011

Tesla Roadster, $109,000

Ballard Industries at the TSE, 1994-2008

ADMIRABLE COMMITMENT

OCTOBER 2008OCTOBER 2008OCTOBER 2008OCTOBER 2008

GoogleGoogleGoogleGoogle’’’’s s s s Clean Energy 2030 Clean Energy 2030 Clean Energy 2030 Clean Energy 2030 calls for calls for calls for calls for ““““weaning the U.S. of coal weaning the U.S. of coal weaning the U.S. of coal weaning the U.S. of coal and oil for electricity generation by and oil for electricity generation by and oil for electricity generation by and oil for electricity generation by 2030 (with some remaining use of 2030 (with some remaining use of 2030 (with some remaining use of 2030 (with some remaining use of natural gas as well as nuclear), and natural gas as well as nuclear), and natural gas as well as nuclear), and natural gas as well as nuclear), and cutting oil use for cars by 44%.cutting oil use for cars by 44%.cutting oil use for cars by 44%.cutting oil use for cars by 44%.””””

NOVEMBER 2011NOVEMBER 2011NOVEMBER 2011NOVEMBER 2011

Google abandons renewable Google abandons renewable Google abandons renewable Google abandons renewable energy projectenergy projectenergy projectenergy project....

Wind power

A calm continent: Asia’s wind classes at 80

m

LANDSATimage of Sichuan basin

Beneixama PV, Spain: 20 MW, 16% load factor

Power densities of biomass production

Joachim Patinir (1514) detail from Rest on the flight to Egypt

Traditional cereal

cultivars yielded

much more straw

than do modern

varieties (and

much more straw

than grain).

Joachim Patinir’s

1514 Rest on the flight to Egypt(now hanging in

Madrid’s Prado)

illustrates that

reality.

Pieter van derHeyden (after Pieter Bruegel),Summer (1570)

Modern wheat

Modern short-stalked wheat cultivar just before harvesting

Biofuel land claims

Power densities of energies

Mismatch of power densities

Power densities of renewable energies and of common energy uses

Hong Kong, peak power density 3,000 W/m2

Bangkok, peak power density 100 W/m2

Evolution of LNG transportation

Mozah, Qatar’s Q-Max LNG carrier (266,000 m3)

P&W’s Swiftpac provides quick (installed in less than a month)

and reliable natural-gas powered electricity generation in units

of about 30 or 60 MW.

US energy use and happiness:limits of more

Energy use and subjective well-being

Level of subjective well-

being

• 1. Puerto Rico

• 2. Mexico

• 3. Denmark

• 4. Colombia

• 10. Canada

• 13. Venezuela

• 15. USA

• 35. Italy

Average annual energy

use in 2010 (GJ/capita)

100

70

160

35

390

110

345

140