THE ADAPTATION OF SUGARCANE TO

CLIMATE CHANGES: OBSERVATIONS

ABOUT THE BRAZILIAN BREEDING.

Silvia Angélica D. de Carvalho, PhD

André T. Furtado, PhD

Departament of Science and Technology Policy

Geoscience Institute – UNICAMP

1. OBJECTIVE AND METHODOLOGY

Objective:

It presents some observations about sugarcane breeding in Brazil and it analyzes the country's ability to provide adapted varieties to climate changes, maintaining its current position of major producer;

Methodology:

Literature review;

Interviews carried out with coordinators from some Brazilians breeding programs;

Survey of secondary data;

Research objectives:

Investigating the main sugarcane breeding programs in Brazil, identifying the

main technological challenges for the crop related to the adaptation to climate

changes and supporting the formulation of public policies focused on the

sugar and alcohol sector

Thematic Project - ALCSCENS: Generation of Alcohol Production

Scenarios as Support for the Formulation of Public Policies Applied to the

Adaptation of the National Sugar and Alcohol Industry to the Climate

Changes;

2. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT IN ALCOHOL

PRODUCTION AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGES

It’s inserted in the Research Program of Global Climate

Changes at Research Foundation of São Paulo State – FAPESP

Expansion

Potential, Pressure, Demand,

Economical Interest, Land, Technology

Constraints

& Impacts

Environment, Food Security, Tax Burden

Demographic Dynamics, Infrastructure

Human Health, Harvest Forecast

2. The importance of studying the Sugarcane and Alcohol Sector:

Demography

Climatology

Politics

Food Security

Modeling

Scientific Communication

Genetic Engineering

Geo-technology

Agriculture

Health

2. Thematic Project: the sugarcane sector adaptation depends on the interaction and

adaptation of all these areas.

Home page: www.cpa.unicamp.br/alcscens

Brazil is the world’s largest producer of sugar and

alcohol;

The sugarcane production grew 143% in the decade

2000-2010;

Strong growth is due to the intensification of

domestic and foreign demands for sugar and alcohol;

3. BRAZILIAN SUGARCANE SECTOR

Source: Ministry of Agriculture - Anuário Estatístico da Agroenergia 2010/ Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento.

Secretaria de Produção e Agroenergia – Brasília, : MAPA /SPAE, 2ª ed., 2011. 223 p.

Harvest-Year

Millio

ns o

f to

ns

GROWTH OF SUGARCANE BRAZILIAN PRODUCTION

(yield t/ha) (Planted area) (Harvested area)

(To

nn

es p

er

he

cta

res)

(Millio

ns o

f h

ecta

res)

EVOLUTION OF THE PRODUCTION AREA AND THE

PRODUCTIVITY OF BRAZILIAN SUGARCANE

Source: Ministry of Agriculture - Anuário Estatística da Agroenergia 2010/ Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento.

Secretaria de Produção e Agroenergia – Brasília, : MAPA /SPAE, 2ª ed., 2011. 223 p.

Millio

ns o

f m

3

Harvests

Source: Ministry of Agriculture - Anuário Estatística da Agroenergia 2010/ Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento.

Secretaria de Produção e Agroenergia – Brasília, : MAPA /SPAE, 2ª ed., 2011. 223 p.

EVOLUTION OF ETHANOL BRAZILIAN PRODUCTION

EVOLUTION OF SUGAR BRAZILIAN PRODUCTION

Millio

ns o

f to

nn

es

Harvests

But, in recent harvests, some indicators start to fall:

3. BRAZILIAN SUGARCANE SECTOR

harvest

2010/2011

harvest

2011/2012

Percentage

change

Planted area (thousand ha) 8,056.0 8,981.5 11,49

Yield (ton/ha) 77,45 68,29 -11,82

Production (thousand ton) 623,905.3 571,471.0 -8,4

Sugar Production (thousand ton) 38,168.4 36,882.0 -3,37

Alcohol Production (thousand m3) 27,595.5 22,857.6 -17,17

What is happening?

Why are the indicators falling?

There are some structural problems such as lack of

renewal sugarcane planted area, and besides...

The climate had an important role in the drops just

mentioned:

Extension of the dry season;

Instability of rainfall, more intense and in short period;

Absence of rain in significant periods of plant development

And so on...

3. BRAZILIAN SUGARCANE SECTOR

4. SUGARCANE AND CLIMATE SCENARIOS

São Paulo State, the largest Brazilian producer, has fertile

lands and very favorable climatic conditions;

The new areas of crop expansion have worst conditions: poor

soil, high temperature and water stress. For example, the North

of São Paulo and the Midwest of the country;

The Brazilian climate scenarios (PINTO & ASSAD, 2008)

estimated that the increase in temperature will promote an

increase in water stress, leading to a raise in areas with high

climatic risks;

According to these scenarios, sugarcane is one of the few crops

that should have significant expansion of the productive area.

Reference: Pinto, H.S. & Assad, E.D. Global Warming and the New Geography of Agricultural Production in Brazil.

British Embassy, 2008.

Recent studies bring some reservations to this strong

expansion of the sugarcane – Gonçalves et al (2011):

The temperature rise expected in the coming decades can

be generally suitable for sugarcane, but the influence of

water for the crop is large, especially during vegetative

growth.

As the water stress has been observed precisely in the

sugarcane vegetative growing period, there may be a

significant drop in the productivity of sugarcane (like

occurred in the last harvests).

4. SUGARCANE AND CLIMATE SCENARIOS

Reference: GONÇALVES, R. R. V. et al Análise comparativa do clima atual e futuro para avaliar a expansão da

cana-de-açúcar em São Paulo. XVII Congresso Brasileiro de Agrometeorologia , Guarapari – ES, 2011.

Thus, the temperature rise associated with increasing water

stress may lead to an increase in production costs by requiring

the use of other technologies such as irrigation; (and adapted

varieties)

4. SUGARCANE AND CLIMATE SCENARIOS

So, the research and development of highly

productive varieties are essential to ensure

the adaptation of this crop.

Traditional Brazilian centers of sugarcane breeding have been

responsible for major advances in productivity and they are still

the basis of technological development in the sector;

The sugarcane yield grew 30% in 30 years thanks to the genetic

breeding and support of public research programs, like

PROALCOHOL;

Leading Brazilians genetic breeding institutes:

University Network for Development of the Sugar-Ethanol Sector –

RIDESA*;

Sugarcane Tecnology Center – CTC*;

Agronomic Institute of Campinas – IAC*;

* initials in Portuguese

5. SUGARCANE GENETIC BREEDING

5. SUGARCANE GENETIC BREEDING

University Network for Development of the Sugar-Ethanol

Sector – RIDESA

It was founded in 1991 and owns 59% of the sugarcane planted

varieties in Brazil;

It represents a network composed by 10 federal universities

located in various regions of the country and...

Because of this, RIDESA can develop a wide range of sugarcane

varieties suitable for different Brazilian climates and soils;

In 20 years of history, it developed 59 sugarcane varieties;

In March/2011, it presented 13 new varieties: 2 of them with

features such as rusticity and water stress tolerance;

Sugarcane Tecnology Center – CTC

This center was owned by COOPERSUCAR – Sugar and Alcohol

Producers Cooperative; currently, a private institution;

It has the largest and the most complete collection of sugarcane

germplasm in the country;

When the collection was owned by Coopersucar, it was a public source

of research, nowadays it is used only for CTC;

CTC owns 38% of the sugarcane planted varieties in Brazil;

Last year, CTC launched two new varieties with resistance to

water stress;

It is developing transgenic varieteis resistant to water stress;

5. SUGARCANE GENETIC BREEDING

Agronomic Institute of Campinas - IAC

It is the forerunner of the agricultural research in Brazil and it gave the start to study of sugarcane crop in the country;

Between the 40s-50s, it launched the first Brazilian range of sugarcane varieties;

It lost space in the 80s-90s with changes in the government public policies;

IAC has been restructured and, in 2005, it founded the Advanced Center of Sugarcane in partnership with the State Government of São Paulo;

It has experiments in the Central-West of the country for varieties resistant to water stress and high temperatures;

5. SUGARCANE GENETIC BREEDING

AVANCED CENTER OF SUGARCANE - IAC

sugarcane seedlings grown for selection

(April 13, 2012)

ADVANCE CENTER OF SUGARCANE - IAC

Sampler of sugarcane varieteis avaible to plant.

(April 13, 2012)

6. RESULTS

In the first interviews carried out, some limitations for sugar

and alcohol sector adaptation in Brazil were identified:

1. Long development period of a variety until it is ready for

commercialization (12 to 15 years):

To ensure the sectorial adaptation, the investment on adapted varieties

must start now, since the 2050 scenarios show increase in temperature

and in water stress;

2. Weakening of the public research system, giving rise to

structural difficulties such as:

lack of resources for hiring qualified personnel and buying modern

equipment;

lack of government financial support, forcing the breeding programs to get

involved mostly with farmers’ urgent needs;

3. Incompatibility between private logic and technological change

to tackle climate change

4. farmers are unaware of climate change scenarios and their

consequences, so they don’t invest in development of adapted

varieties;

The discussion about climate changes is strongly inserted in the

academy, but it is widely discussed outside it;

5. Lack of public policies oriented for the sugarcane sector

adaptation to support:

The professionalization and organization of the sector to face the

multinational companies competition advancing in sugarcane breeding

and transgenic varieties;

Innovations in soil improvement and crop management and so on;

6. RESULTS

IN CONCLUSION... There is a restructuration in course on the national system of

sugarcane science and technology with the strengthening of

old institutions, the emergence of new agents and change

of government posture;

Need for structuring public agronomic research with focus

on adaptation to climate change in the industry;

Dissemination of existing commercial varieties features

by drought tolerance, resistance to high temperature and rusticity;

Development of new varieties with the same features;

Making the former bank of germplasm from Coopersucar public

again – allowing the expansion of the crosses of sugarcane

varieties increasing the number of successes.

Thanks for your attention!

Email for questions and comments:

sadcarvalho@ige.unicamp.com

REFERENCES MARGULIS, S. e DUBEUX, C. B. S. (eds.) Economia da Mudança do Clima no Brasil: Custos e Oportunidades.

Coordenação geral Jacques Marcovitch.– São Paulo: IBEP Gráfica, 2010.82 p.

GONÇALVES, R. R. V. et al Análise comparativa do clima atual e futuro para avaliar a expansão da cana-de-açúcar em

São Paulo. XVII Congresso Brasileiro de Agrometeorologia , Guarapari – ES.

Pinto, H.S. & Assad, E.D. Global Warming and the New Geography of Agricultural Production in Brazil. British Embassy,

2008.

Anuário Estatístico da Agroenergia 2010/ Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento. Secretaria de

Produção e Agroenergia – Brasília, : MAPA /SPAE, 2ª ed., 2011. 223 p.

Furtado, A. T., Scandiffio, M. I. G. and Cortez, L. A. B. The Brazilian sugarcane innovation system. Energy Policy 39,

2011, 156-166 p.

HASEGAWA, M. A criação, circulação e transformação do conhecimento em redes de inovação: o programa de

melhoramento genético da cana-de-açúcar do IAC. Dissertação de Mestrado. IG – Unicamp: Campinas, SP., 2001.

HASEGAWA, M. Avaliação das capacitações dos spinoffs gerados por programas de P&D: o programa cana do IAC.

Tese de Doutorado. IG – Unicamp: Campinas, SP., 2005.

RIDESA – Rede Interuniversitária para o Desenvolvimento do Setor Sucroenergético. Catálogo nacional de variedades

“RB” de cana-de-açúcar / Rede Interuniversitária para o Desenvolvimento do Setor Sucroalcooleiro. – Curitiba, 2010.

136 p.

CHALLINOR, A. Towards the development of adaptation options using climate and crop yield forecasting at seasonal

to multi-decadal timescales. Environmental Science & Policy, 12 (2009), p. 453-465.

DINARDO-MIRANDA, L.; MACHADO DE VASCONCELOS, A. C.; LANDELL, M. G. A. (editores) Cana-de-Açúcar. 1ª edição.

Campinas: Instituto Agronômico, 2010.

CORTEZ, L. A. B. (coord.) Bioetanol de cana-de-açúcar: P&D para produtividade e sustentabilidade. São Paulo:

Blucher, 2010, p. 954.