2012 election results: impacts for...

2012 ELECTION RESULTS: IMPACTS FOR SOLAR

Rhone Resch, President and CEO Carrie Hitt, Vice President of State Affairs

Solar Energy Industries Association

Thursday, November 08, 2012 © 2009 SEIA 1

A Good Night for Solar


Race for the White House – 270 Electoral Votes to Win • Obama/Biden – 303 Electoral Votes

– Northeast, West Coast, and upper Midwest solid blue • Including solar states such as CA, NV, NM, CO, NJ, MA,

and NY • Manufacturing heartland – OH, MI, PA

• Romney/Ryan – 206 Electoral Votes – Southeast, Midwest and parts of the sunbelt solid red

• Including solar states such as AZ, and growing markets like TX

• Note: Florida undecided - Obama 49.9% (4,143,362) vs. Romney 49.3% (4,096,346)


U.S. Senate

• Net gain of 2 seats for Democrats – Democrats gain 2; Republicans lose 2; 2 Independents likely to

caucus with Democrats


The Washington Post

U.S. Senate • GOP Wins

– Senator-elect Cruz (TX) was tea party candidate – Senator-elect Flake (AZ) represents state with significant industry

presence, but has been critical of renewable incentives – Senator Heller (NV) keeps his seat; supportive of solar

• DEM Wins – Senate champions Cantwell (WA), Feinstein (CA), Stabenow (MI)

and Menendez (NJ) re-elected; all other re-elected Senate Dems generally supportive of solar

– Senators-elect Baldwin, Warren, Heinrich, and Hirono very supportive

– Senators-elect Kaine (VA) and Donnelly (IN) believe in all-of-the-above moderate energy plan

• Independents – Senator-elect King (ME) was a wind developer and is supportive of

renewables, but not a big solar presence in Maine


U.S. Senate

• Senate Committees generally status quo – Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee

• Senator Wyden (OR) will chair the Committee with Senator Murkowski (AK) as Ranking Member

• Senators Wyden and Murkowski take bipartisan approach – Senate Finance Committee

• GOP loses two members, Dems lose 2 members • Senator Casey (D-PA) interested in Committee • Senators Portman (R-OH) and Isakson (GA) also

interested; Senate Minority Leader McConnell chooses for first vacancy

• Dems may shift ratio of Committee to gain extra seat


U.S. House of Representatives

• 2012 House – 241 Republicans/194 Democrats


The Washington Post

U.S. House of Representatives

• What does it mean for solar? ‒ GOP position on tax/deficit reduction issues TBD ‒ House Minority Leader Pelosi’s future ‒ House Ways and Means Committee largely stays the same

• GOP loses 3 members, Dems lose 2 members, 1 GOP member (Boustany) in a run-off in December

• Allyson Schwartz (PA) and Chris Van Hollen (MD), both supportive of solar, likely to join Dems on Committee


What does it mean for solar? • Active lame duck

– Debt ceiling, disaster relief, Farm bill, Bush tax cuts, NDAA, AMT, sequestration, payroll tax, etc.

• Outcome for PTC and other extenders – What happens with tax extenders bill and commence construction

language? • Tax reform

– Obama business tax reform proposal provides for permanent, refundable credit?

– Simpson-Bowles plan did not include tax credits • Bipartisan energy bill emerging from Senate Energy? • Administration changes

– Cabinet level and below – turnover is typical in 2nd term


STATE 2012 ELECTIONS


Ballot Initiatives- Mixed Results

• California Prop 39 – changes corp tax code, reserves 50% of the new revenue for renewable & energy efficiency investment in first 5 years

• California Prop 30 – increases tax revenue to fund education

• Michigan Prop 3 – would have required 25% renewables by 2025✖

Colorado

• Democrats regained control of the House (lost it in last election) • Senate remained in Democratic control • RPS defense will be easier/offensive campaigns not likely

Arizona & Nevada • Arizona

– Arizona Corporation Commission: Republican sweep...Bob Stump (R, incumbent), Robert Burns (R) and Susan Bitter Smith (R), defeat two D incumbents and one other challenger. All five members of ACC will now be Republican. Possible change in Chair

– Governor and both Legislative chambers are Republican. • Nevada

– Democrats have stronger majority in House than in prior year

New York

• Control of the Senate in Question – Republicans hold the 62 seat house by 3 seats, however in

2013 there will be 63 seats and the Dems could regain control – Most obvious winners were to the Indepdent Democractic

Caucus ( 4 votes). It is not clear who the IDC will vote for

New Jersey and Maryland

• New Jersey – No in-state elections this year, except for 2 special elections,

which won’t change the balance – Statewide elections in 2013

• Maryland – No state elections in 2012 – Gubernatorial election 2014


Pennsylvania

• After several cycles of switching leadership (R-2006, D-2008, R-2010), the leadership in the House and Senate remained the same in 2012

• The makeup of the House remained largely unchanged • The Senate moved from a 30-20 R majority to a 27-23 R majority • The next gubernatorial election will be held in 2014 • State Treasurer and Auditor General remained Democratic • Kathleen Kane won the Attorney General position-first Democrat

and first woman to do so • While fairly sympathetic to solar, issues including commerce

clause issues in the AEPS, given opposition from the Governor and other Republican leadership, the most she could do (if she wanted to take it on) would be to act as a thorn in the Governor’s side about the issue


Hawaii

• Tulsi Gabbard elected to US house, Mazie Hirono won the contested US Senate seat

• Jon Yoshimura was defeated in his city council bid. Carol Fukunaga won 29% of the vote

• In the state legislature, a few seats changed, but no significant swing

Georgia and North Carolina

• Georgia – Republican PUC remains intact, solar became a “positive

message” in campaigns • North Carolina

– Shift to the right may increase challenges to the renewable tax credit

What does it mean for solar?

• Few dramatic changes • Most changes were in a positive direction, with expected elected

officials to be more moderate • State solar policies will face challenges, mostly related to costs of

meeting RPS goals and net metering; defense will be important • Limited legislative opportunities to expand mandates (more work

on the regulatory side) • Need to continue outreach to elected officials in key states,

including conservatives


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2012 election results: impacts for...

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