2012 draft 5 wine grape crush survey, murray darling ... grape crush survey murray darling...wine...
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DEPARTMENT OF PRIMARY INDUSTRIES
Wine Grape Crush Survey
Murray Darling / Swan Hill
2012
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The information contained in this survey was collected, analysed and published by Department of Primary Industries, on behalf of the Murray Valley Wine Grape Industry Advisory Committee, comprising winery and grower representatives from the Murray Darling and Swan Hill regions. The publication of this survey is made possible through the support of the wineries that processed fruit from Murray Darling and/or Swan Hill vineyards in 2012. REPORT PREPARATION
Kristen Pitt Department of Primary Industries Centre for Environmental Sciences TER 4, Ernest Jones Drive Macleod VIC 3085 Tel.: (03) 8458 2600 Email: [email protected]
Additional copies of this report are available from: www.murrayvalleywinegrapes.com.au or by contacting the Department of Primary Industries - Mildura.
COPYRIGHT
This publication is copyright. Apart from fair dealing for the purpose of private study, research, criticism, or review, as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any process without the written permission of Department of Primary Industries, Victoria. © State of Victoria, Department of Primary Industries, 2012
DISCLAIMER
This publication may be of assistance to you, but the State of Victoria, its employees and members of the Murray Valley Wine Grape Industry Advisory Committee do not guarantee that the publication is written without flaw of any kind or is wholly appropriate for your particular purposes and therefore disclaims all liability for error, loss or other consequence which may arise from you relying on any information in this publication.
If you would like to receive this information/publication in an accessible format (such as large print or audio) please call the Customer Service Centre on: 136 186, TTY: 1800 122 969, or email [email protected]
INTRODUCTION Wine grape crush surveys are carried out in the Murray Darling and Swan Hill regions annually to provide early and accurate estimates of the tonnes and prices of grapes purchased and grown by wineries. These surveys also provide information on the estimated tonnes to be purchased and grown over each of the subsequent two years, together with an assessment of the tonnes that wine makers would prefer to receive.
The data is provided voluntarily by wineries on the understanding and guarantee that data for individual wineries will not be released. Only aggregated data is reported.
DATA REQUESTED FROM WINERIES Wineries are asked to provide the following information by variety and region:
Tonnes Purchased
The tonnages purchased from independent grape growers.
Tonnes Own Grown
The tonnages the winery itself has grown.
Tonnes Preferred
The tonnages the wineries would have preferred to crush in the current vintage.
Committed Intake – Own Grapes, Committed Intake – Purchased Grapes, Total Required Intake for the next 2 years
The tonnages wineries are committed to crush for the next 2 years, and they would prefer to crush assuming no limitations on equipment, supplies etc.
Purchase Prices
The highest and lowest price paid for each variety and the total purchase value (post receival price, not including freight or end use bonuses) for each variety purchased.
Tonnes crushed for concentrate and distillate – 2012 vintage
Due to the 2010-11 seasonal conditions, wineries were asked to report on tonnes of grapes crushed for concentrate and distillate. This data was again requested for the 2012 for comparison.
DATA QUALITY Responses were not received from all wineries sent survey forms and some wineries may not have been approached. The absolute tonnages should, therefore, be treated with care. A proportion of wineries did not supply all the data requested. This was particularly true of price data and future estimates.
The data has been checked exhaustively to eliminate transcription and analysis errors and to reduce, where possible, errors in data supplied by wineries. The data on the current vintage can be considered as accurate as possible.
The projections are a snapshot of the views of wine makers or company executives at the time of the survey. They are subject to variation with market fluctuations and changes in production over subsequent years. The projections are imperfect and will almost certainly vary with time.
DATA TREATMENT All data provided by the wineries has been aggregated. Under an agreement with the wineries covering the provision of data, disaggregation is not permitted. It is not possible to provide data from individual wineries.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Section 1 Summary Data & Yearly Trends ...........................................................................................................................................................5
Total tonnes crushed and total crop value............................................................................................................................................6
Actual and preferred tonnages since 2007...........................................................................................................................................7
Historical trends in production ..............................................................................................................................................................8
Historical trends in estimated value of purchased fruit compared to total crush ..................................................................................9
Actual and preferred tonnages by variety...........................................................................................................................................10
Percentage of total crush by variety ...................................................................................................................................................11
Section 2 Price & Tonnage Data..........................................................................................................................................................................12
Notes on information provided in Section 2........................................................................................................................................13
Intake and price summary data by variety for red grapes ..................................................................................................................14
Intake and price summary data by variety for white grapes ...............................................................................................................15
Intake and price summary data by variety for red grapes: Murray Darling & Swan Hill based wineries only ....................................16
Intake and price summary data by variety for white grapes: Murray Darling & Swan Hill based wineries only .................................17
Section 3 Estimates of Expected & Preferred Intakes ......................................................................................................................................18
Notes on information provided in Section 3........................................................................................................................................19
Section 4 Trend Graphs for Selected Varieties .................................................................................................................................................25
Notes on information provided in Section 4........................................................................................................................................26
List of Wineries Returning Survey Forms................................................................................................................................................................40
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 5 -
Summary Data and Yearly Trends
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 6 -
TOTAL TONNES CRUSHED AND TOTAL CROP VALUE – Wine only
Total winery grown
Total purchased Total crushed (supply)
Total preferred (demand)
Tonnes from other growers as % of total
% of demand supplied
Estimated value of purchased grapes
Estimated value of total crush
Red 16,427 100,261 116,688 119,271 86% 98% $37,580,296 $43,671,305
White 26,432 170,234 196,666 181,139 87% 109% $57,264,066 $65,529,062
Total 42,859 270,495 313,354 300,410 86% 104% $94,844,362 $109,200,367
TOTAL TONNES CRUSHED AND TOTAL CROP VALUE – Wine and Concentrate
Total winery grown
Total purchased Total crushed (supply)
Total preferred (demand)
Tonnes from other growers as % of total
% of demand supplied
Estimated value of purchased grapes
Estimated value of total crush
Red 18,094 100,261 118,355 120,971 85% 98% $37,580,296 $44,294,455
White 28,663 172,520 201,183 185,239 93% 109% $57,874121 $80,235,737
Total 46,757 272,781 319,538 306,210 89% 104% $95,454,540 $124,530,192
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 7 -
ACTUAL AND PREFERRED TONNAGES SINCE 2007
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
Harvest Year
To
nn
es
Crushed
Preferred
Crushed 355,389 365,211 375,323 328,147 256,398 280,806 313,354 319,538
Preferred 404,498 341,353 329,950 314,610 318,243 325,283 300,410 306,210
2007 2008 2009 20102011 - Wine
only
2011 - Wine +
Concentrate
2012 - Wine
only
2012 - Wine +
Concentrate
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 8 -
HISTORICAL TRENDS IN PRODUCTION
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harvest Year
To
nn
es
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 9 -
HISTORICAL TRENDS IN ESTIMATED VALUE OF PURCHASED FRUIT COMPARED TO TOTAL CRUSH
$0
$50,000,000
$100,000,000
$150,000,000
$200,000,000
$250,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harvest Year
Es
tim
ate
d V
alu
e
Purchased - wine only ($)
Crushed - wine only ($)
Purchased - wine + concentrate ($)
Crushed - wine + concentrate ($)
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 10 -
ACTUAL AND PREFERRED TONNAGES BY VARIETY– Wine only
Red Varieties
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Shiraz Cabernet Sauvignon Merlot Pinot Noir
Variety
To
nn
es
Crushed
Preferred
White Varieties
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Chardonnay Sauvignon
Blanc
Muscat Gordo
Blanco
Pinot Gris Colombard Semillon Other White Canada
Muscat
Variety
To
nn
es
Crushed
Preferred
Note: Varieties with both crushed and preferred less than 2000 tonnes are not represented in these graphs.
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 11 -
PRECENTAGE OF TOTAL CRUSH BY VARIETY– Wine only
Red Varieties
Shiraz
42%
Petit Verdot
1%
Ruby Cabernet
1%
Cabernet Sauvignon
28%
Merlot
24%
Pinot Noir
4%Shiraz
Cabernet Sauvignon
Merlot
Pinot Noir
Ruby Cabernet
Petit Verdot
White Varieties
Riesling
1%Viognier
1%Sultana
1%
Canada Muscat
1%
Semillon
7%
Other White
2%
Colombard
7%
Pinot Gris
10%
Muscat Gordo Blanco
11%Sauvignon Blanc
13%
Chardonnay
45%
Muscat a Petit Grains Blanc
1%
Muscat a Petit Grains Blanc
Sultana
Viognier
Riesling
Canada Muscat
Other White
Semillon
Colombard
Pinot Gris
Muscat Gordo Blanco
Sauvignon Blanc
Chardonnay
Note: Varieties with both crushed and preferred less than 1000 tonnes are not represented in these graphs.
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 12 -
Price and Tonnage Data
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 13 -
NOTES ON INFORMATION PROVIDED IN SECTION 2
Total crush
The total tonnes of grapes crushed from the Murray Darling / Swan Hill regions whether processed in that region, another region in Victoria or interstate. All wineries in Australia who source fruit from Murray Darling / Swan Hill vineyards are included in the survey collection process. Reported fruit is separated into fruit produced from the winery’s own vineyards (“own grown”) and from independent grower owned vineyards (“purchased”).
Tonnes Purchased as % of Total
This statistic is calculated by dividing the tonnes purchased from independent growers (total other growers) by the total tonnes crushed. This figure is then expressed as a percentage. It indicates the proportion of grapes purchased from independent growers.
Calculated Average Purchase Value (formerly Weighted Average Weighbridge Price)
Calculated by dividing the total purchase value (post receival price, not including freight or end use bonuses) for a variety (summed across all wineries) by the total tonnes of the same variety purchased from other growers.
Winery grown grapes are not included in the calculation of the Calculated Average Purchase Value.
The Calculated Average Purchase Value in this report is calculated from data that is known to be incomplete. Therefore, it is possible that the Calculated Average Purchase Value is biased due to the incomplete data.
Lowest and Highest Prices
Wineries are asked to report the highest and lowest prices paid for any parcel of fruit of a particular variety, of any size. The highest of all highest prices and the lowest of all lowest prices are reported – provided that at least three wineries have provided this information for any particular variety.
The highest or lowest price may be for a very small parcel of fruit - and/or reflect an unusual pricing arrangement - eg payment by the hectare rather than per tonne, “spot market” sales of excess fruit etc.
Total value of purchased grapes
Calculated as the Calculated Average Purchase Value multiplied by the total tonnes purchased.
Estimated Total Value of All Grapes
Calculated as the Calculated Average Purchase Value of purchased fruit multiplied by the total tonnes crushed, for each variety.
If there is a variety where there are no purchases, then the average purchase value across all other varieties of the same colour in the same region is used to determine an estimated value for the own grown grapes. Discrepancies will appear in the estimated total value of all grapes and the estimated total value of purchased grapes if the average price is calculated.
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 14 -
INTAKE AND PRICE SUMMARY DATA BY VARIETY FOR RED GRAPES – Wine only PURCHASED GRAPES SUMMARY
Variety Purchased
(t)
Lowest price ($/t)
Highest price ($/t)
Total value purchased grapes ($)
Tonnes purchased as a % of
total
Calculated average purchase
value ($/t)
Winery grown fruit (t)
Total crushed
(t)
Estimated total value
ALL grapes ($)
Black Muscat 102 $69,431 100% $681 0 102 $69,431
Cabernet Franc 3 $576 100% $225 0 3 $576
Cabernet Sauvignon 28,177 $148 $660 $11,291,764 88% $401 3,884 32,061 $12,848,237
Chambourcin 3 $576 100% $225 0 3 $576
Durif 106 $47,018 65% $443 58 164 $72,765
Gamay 3 $576 100% $225 0 3 $576
Grenache 844 $225 $400 $230,675 100% $273 0 844 $230,675
Malbec 186 $225 $600 $96,505 100% $518 0 186 $96,505
Mataro (Mourvedre) 122 $330 $400 $45,760 100% $375 0 122 $45,760
Merlot 22,136 $225 $660 $8,379,755 83% $379 4,614 26,750 $10,126,244
Muscat Brown (Red Front)
296 $202,060 100% $682 0 296 $202,060
Nebbiolo 0 $0 0% 8 8 $2,998
Other Red (group together)
81 $225 $750 $46,111 68% $572 39 120 $68,418
Petit Verdot 1,008 $250 $500 $306,059 93% $304 78 1,086 $329,810
Pinot Noir 3,935 $225 $450 $1,488,303 97% $378 125 4,060 $1,535,573
Rubired 8 $3,200 100% $400 0 8 $3,200
Ruby Cabernet 144 $45,854 10% $319 1,326 1,470 $469,157
Sangiovese 367 $250 $635 $122,022 63% $333 213 580 $192,861
Shiraz 42,373 $159 $600 $15,079,125 88% $356 6,028 48,401 $17,224,404
Tannat 72 $225 $400 $28,299 69% $394 33 105 $41,308
Tempranillo 290 $0 $350 $94,876 94% $327 20 310 $101,510
Zinfandel 7 $1,750 100% $250 0 7 $1,750
Total Red winegrapes 100,261 $0 $0 $37,580,296 86% 16,427 116,688 $43,664,393
** The Calculated Average Purchase Value (formerly Weighted Average Weighbridge Price or WAP) is calculated from data that is known to be incomplete. Therefore, it is possible that the Calculated Average Purchase Value is biased due to the incomplete data.
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 15 -
INTAKE AND PRICE SUMMARY DATA BY VARIETY FOR WHITE GRAPES – Wine only PURCHASED GRAPES SUMMARY
Variety Purchased
(t)
Lowest price ($/t)
Highest price ($/t)
Total value purchased grapes ($)
Tonnes purchased as a % of
total
Calculated average purchase
value ($/t)
Winery grown fruit (t)
Total crushed
(t)
Estimated total value
ALL grapes ($)
Arneis 17 $12,645 100% $750 0 17 $12,645
Canada Muscat 2,146 $1,196,523 99% $558 20 2,166 $1,207,675
Chardonnay 76,772 $150 $712 $22,529,282 85% $293 13,602 90,374 $26,520,825
Chenin Blanc 83 $19,898 100% $240 0 83 $19,898
Colombard 13,396 $200 $385 $2,972,365 94% $222 835 14,231 $3,157,660
Crouchen 0 $0 0% 288 288 $96,958
Marsanne 5 $1,250 100% $250 0 5 $1,250
Muscadelle (Tokay) 18 $7,641 100% $425 0 18 $7,641
Muscat Blanc (Frontignac)
1,105 $375 $550 $476,973 100% $432 0 1,105 $476,973
Muscat Gordo Blanco 20,781 $245 $550 $8,317,090 95% $400 1,186 21,967 $8,791,910
Orange Muscat 256 $410 $600 $122,577 100% $478 0 256 $122,577
Other White (group together)
4,149 $250 $840 $1,855,000 99% $447 40 4,189 $1,872,883
Pedro Ximenes 0 $0 0% 10 10 $3,372
Pinot Gris 17,690 $270 $651 $9,002,688 94% $509 1,133 18,823 $9,579,300
Riesling 776 $295 $550 $276,979 54% $357 664 1,440 $513,944
Sauvignon Blanc 21,405 $0 $485 $7,162,117 86% $335 3,625 25,030 $8,375,125
Semillon 8,611 $0 $600 $2,511,077 66% $292 4,421 13,032 $3,800,414
Sultana 1,346 $150 $220 $295,650 100% $220 0 1,346 $295,650
Taminga 112 $39,092 90% $350 12 124 $43,292
Verdelho 444 $111,110 55% $250 366 811 $202,714
Viognier 1,123 $0 $520 $353,923 83% $315 229 1,351 $426,047
Total White winegrapes 170,234 $0 $0 $57,263,879 87% 26,432 196,666 $65,528,755
Grand Total All winegrapes
270,496 $94,844,175 86% 42,858 313,354 $109,193,147
** The Calculated Average Purchase Value (formerly Weighted Average Weighbridge Price or WAP) is calculated from data that is known to be incomplete. Therefore, it is possible that the Calculated Average Purchase Value is biased due to the incomplete data.
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 16 -
INTAKE AND PRICE SUMMARY DATA BY VARIETY FOR RED GRAPES: MURRAY DARLING & SWAN HILL BASED WINERIES ONLY – Wine only PURCHASED GRAPES SUMMARY
Variety Purchased
(t)
Lowest price ($/t)
Highest price ($/t)
Total value purchased grapes ($)
Tonnes purchased as a % of
total
Calculated average purchase
value ($/t)
Winery grown fruit (t)
Total crushed
(t)
Estimated total value
ALL grapes ($)
Black Muscat 102 $69,431 100% $681 0 102 $69,431
Cabernet Franc 3 $576 100% $225 0 3 $576
Cabernet Sauvignon 22,577 $148 $517 $9,023,358 89% $400 2,832 25,410 $10,155,238
Chambourcin 3 $576 100% $225 0 3 $576
Durif 106 $47,018 65% $443 58 164 $72,765
Gamay 3 $576 100% $225 0 3 $576
Grenache 815 $225 $400 $221,211 100% $271 0 815 $221,211
Malbec 46 $26,675 100% $581 0 46 $26,675
Mataro (Mourvedre) 99 $38,018 100% $386 0 99 $38,018
Merlot 15,342 $225 $484 $5,959,070 77% $388 4,614 19,955 $7,751,088 Muscat Brown (Red Front) 296 $202,060 100% $682 0 296 $202,060
Nebbiolo 0 $0 0% 8 8 $2,990 Other Red (group together) 67 $225 $650 $36,061 63% $536 39 106 $56,983
Petit Verdot 833 $250 $500 $247,551 91% $297 78 911 $270,784
Pinot Noir 3,691 $225 $450 $1,393,736 97% $378 125 3,816 $1,440,929
Rubired 8 $3,200 100% $400 0 8 $3,200
Ruby Cabernet 0 $0 0% 1,326 1,326 $495,735
Sangiovese 328 $250 $350 $97,244 61% $297 213 541 $160,419
Shiraz 35,922 $159 $600 $12,644,986 89% $352 4,605 40,527 $14,265,916
Tannat 72 $225 $400 $28,299 69% $394 33 105 $41,308
Tempranillo 265 $0 $350 $88,066 93% $332 20 286 $94,788
Zinfandel 7 $1,750 100% $250 0 7 $1,750
Total Red winegrapes 80,585 $0 $0 $30,129,462 85% 13,951 94,536 $35,373,016
** The Calculated Average Purchase Value (formerly Weighted Average Weighbridge Price or WAP) is calculated from data that is known to be incomplete. Therefore, it is possible that the Calculated Average Purchase Value is biased due to the incomplete data.
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 17 -
INTAKE AND PRICE SUMMARY DATA BY VARIETY FOR WHITE GRAPES: MURRAY DARLING & SWAN HILL BASED WINERIES ONLY – Wine only
PURCHASED GRAPES SUMMARY
Variety Purchased
(t)
Lowest price ($/t)
Highest price ($/t)
Total value purchased grapes ($)
Tonnes purchased as a % of
total
Calculated average purchase
value ($/t)
Winery grown fruit (t)
Total crushed
(t)
Estimated total value
ALL grapes ($)
Canada Muscat 193 $77,036 91% $400 20 213 $85,036
Chardonnay 62,594 $225 $700 $18,027,139 82% $288 13,406 76,000 $21,888,046
Chenin Blanc 83 $19,898 100% $240 0 83 $19,898
Colombard 10,313 $200 $300 $2,258,668 93% $219 835 11,148 $2,441,569
Crouchen 0 $0 0% 288 288 $90,369
Marsanne 5 $1,250 100% $250 0 5 $1,250
Muscadelle (Tokay) 18 $7,641 100% $425 0 18 $7,641 Muscat Blanc (Frontignac) 396 $375 $550 $158,115 100% $400 0 396 $158,115
Muscat Gordo Blanco 19,391 $245 $550 $7,756,285 94% $400 1,186 20,577 $8,230,833
Orange Muscat 183 $78,573 100% $429 0 183 $78,573 Other White (group together) 1,684 $305 $700 $777,316 98% $462 40 1,724 $795,776
Pedro Ximenes 0 $0 0% 10 10 $3,142
Pinot Gris 8,635 $300 $500 $3,290,894 88% $381 1,133 9,768 $3,722,721
Riesling 362 $107,990 35% $298 664 1,026 $305,839
Sauvignon Blanc 16,314 $0 $400 $5,440,413 82% $333 3,625 19,939 $6,649,340
Semillon 7,137 $0 $600 $2,109,390 62% $296 4,421 11,558 $3,416,186
Sultana 1,075 $235,990 100% $220 0 1,075 $235,990
Taminga 112 $39,092 90% $350 12 124 $43,292
Verdelho 444 $111,110 55% $250 366 811 $202,714
Viognier 756 $0 $350 $179,095 77% $237 229 985 $233,281
Total White winegrapes 129,695 $40,675,894 83% 26,236 155,931 $48,609,609 Grand Total All winegrapes 210,279 $70,805,356 84% 40,187 250,466 $83,982,626
** The Calculated Average Purchase Value (formerly Weighted Average Weighbridge Price or WAP) is calculated from data that is known to be incomplete. Therefore, it is possible that the Calculated Average Purchase Value is biased due to the incomplete data.
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 18 -
Estimates of Expected and Preferred Intakes
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 19 -
NOTES ON INFORMATION PROVIDED IN SECTION 3 ESTIMATES OF EXPECTED AND PREFERRED INTAKES FOR THE NEXT TWO YEARS
Committed intake – own grapes
The estimated tonnage of grapes sourced from winery owned or leased vineyards. This includes grapes owned by subsidiary or affiliated companies.
This figure takes into account intended new plantings that will come into bearing or intended removals during the projection period.
Committed intake – contracted purchases
Grapes wineries are committed to purchase in the projected year. Any arrangements that they consider to be binding are included. This may be written contracts or verbal agreements.
Only existing arrangements are reported. Planned or possible future contracts or renewals are not included.
Total required intake – demand
The total requirement for grapes to meet projected sales projections. This does not include planned purchases of bulk wine.
The % required/committed intake shows the percentage of the wineries’ requirement that is already committed for a given year. Eg a figure of 83% indicates that wineries already have contracts (or own grown fruit) to supply 83% of their demand for that year.
Note:
• Not all wineries provide estimates of future intakes - particularly for the later projected years. Therefore projections for later years tend to underreport actual demand. The projections of future intake should be interpreted and used cautiously. It should be noted that there is considerable variation from one survey to the next in demand projections for the same future projected year, as marketing indications change. The projections should only be interpreted as general indications of current levels of confidence, and trends in varietal preferences.
Wine grapes sought on the open market (possible spot market requirement)
This figure is inferred from the difference between committed intake (own grown & purchased) and total required intake.
Projected supply
This figure has been provided from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).
Note:
• Projections regarding supply/demand should be regarded as a guide only. Growers should always conduct thorough research before committing to vine removals and planting. Consideration of new plantings should include whether secure markets will be available for the fruit when it comes into production. Increasingly, supply/demand is influenced by factors outside the region, i.e. over or under supply in other regions in Australia and elsewhere in the world, so regional figures must be considered in that context.
Wine grapes available on the open market
This figure is inferred from the difference between supply and committed intake (own grown & purchased).
Surplus or shortfall of grapes on the open market
The difference between wine grapes sought on the open market and wine grapes available on the open market. However, when both projected supply and committed intake is greater than total required intake (demand), then the surplus/shortfall is recorded as zero. A negative number indicates a shortfall and a positive number indicates surplus.
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 20 -
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total committed
intake
Total required
intake (Demand)
% required intake that
is committed
Winegrapes sought on the open market
(Possible spot market requirement)
Projected Supply
Winegrapes available on
the open market
Surplus or shortfall of
grapes on the open market
Surplus or shortfall as a percentage of demand
Red wine grapes
2013 28,211 97,376 125,587 139,178 90% 13,591 145,817 20,230 6,639 5%
2014 28,329 89,298 117,627 140,672 84% 23,046
White wine grapes
2013 48,269 146,752 195,022 181,686 107% -13,336 217,783 22,761 22,761 13%
2014 47,592 130,266 177,858 181,963 98% 23,046
All wine grapes
2013 76,481 244,129 320,609 320,864 100% 255 363,601 42,992 42,737 13%
2014 75,921 219,563 295,485 322,636 92% 27,151
Red Wine Grapes
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
2013 2014
Year
Tonnes
White Wine Grapes
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
2013 2014
Year
All Wine Grapes
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
2013 2014
Year
Tonnes
Total committed intake
Total required intake
(Demand)
Projected Supply
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 21 -
SUPPLY AND DEMAND ANALYSIS – MAJOR VARIETIES
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total committed
intake
Total required
intake (Demand)
% required intake that
is committed
Winegrapes sought on the open market
(Possible spot market requirement)
Projected Supply
Winegrapes available on
the open market
Surplus or shortfall of
grapes on the open market
Surplus or shortfall as a percentage of
demand
Cabernet Sauvignon
2013 6,675 25,347 32,022 38,656 83% 6,634 38,923 6,901 267 1%
2014 6,792 23,377 30,169 39,221 77% 9,052
Chardonnay
2013 25,420 61,570 86,990 80,210 108% -6,780 100,782 13,792 13,792 17%
2014 23,890 57,002 80,891 80,663 100% -228
Colombard
2013 2,943 8,585 11,528 12,310 94% 782 20,091 8,563 7,781 63%
2014 3,414 8,382 11,797 12,310 96% 513
Cabernet Sauvignon
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2013 2014
Year
Tonnes
Chardonnay
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2013 2014
Year
Colombard
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2013 2014
Year
Total committed intake
Total required intake
(Demand)
Projected Supply
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 22 -
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total committed
intake
Total required
intake (Demand)
% required intake that
is committed
Winegrapes sought on the open market
(Possible spot market requirement)
Projected Supply
Winegrapes available on
the open market
Surplus or shortfall of
grapes on the open market
Surplus or shortfall as a percentage of
demand
Merlot
2013 6,914 20,533 27,447 31,230 88% 3,783 30,659 3,212 -571 -2%
2014 6,914 20,167 27,081 31,428 86% 4,347
Muscat Gordo Blanco
2013 1,479 24,236 25,715 26,975 95% 1,260 * Individual data based on Muscat Gordo Blanco no longer available from
2014 1,761 19,508 21,270 26,873 79% 5,604 ABARES
Petit Verdot
2013 551 1,261 1,812 2,173 83% 361 2,293 481 120 6%
2014 551 1,143 1,694 2,173 78% 479
Merlot
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
2013 2014
Year
Tonnes
Muscat Gordo Blanco
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
2013 2014
Year
Petit Verdot
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
2013 2014
Year
Total committed intake
Total required intake
(Demand)
Projected Supply
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 23 -
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total committed
intake
Total required
intake (Demand)
% required intake that
is committed
Winegrapes sought on the open market
(Possible spot market requirement)
Projected Supply
Winegrapes available on
the open market
Surplus or shortfall of
grapes on the open market
Surplus or shortfall as a percentage of
demand
Pinot Gris/Grigio
2013 3,103 21,350 24,452 10,700 229% -13,752 17,158 -7,294 0* 0%
2014 3,103 19,087 22,189 10,780 206% -11,409
Riesling
2013 765 563 1,328 1,324 100% -4 2,423 1,095 1,095 83%
2014 765 383 1,148 1,324 87% 177
Sauvignon Blanc
2013 6,842 16,177 23,019 22,750 101% -270 18,953 -4,066 -3,797 -17%
2014 6,842 13,606 20,448 23,023 89% 2,575
Pinot Gris
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2013 2014
Year
Tonnes
Riesling
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2013 2014
Year
Sauvignon Blanc
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2013 2014
Year
Tonnes
Total committed intake
Total required intake
(Demand)
Projected Supply
*Figure intentionally reported as zero – please read the explanation given on page 19
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 24 -
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total committed
intake
Total required intake
(Demand)
% required intake that is committed
Winegrapes sought on the open market
(Possible spot market
requirement)
Projected Supply
Winegrapes available on the
open market
Surplus or shortfall of
grapes on the open market
Surplus or shortfall as a percentage of
demand
Semillon
2013 5,849 7,136 12,985 12,908 101% -77 11,107 -1,878 -1,801 -14%
2014 5,731 6,544 12,275 12,666 97% 391
Shiraz
2013 10,371 41,579 51,951 55,099 94% 3,148 60,328 8,377 5,229 9%
2014 10,371 36,823 47,194 55,806 85% 8,612
Sultana
2013 0 711 711 699 102% -12 * Individual data based on Sultana no longer available from ABARES
2014 0 571 571 571 100% 0
Semillon
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2013 2014
Year
Tonnes
Shiraz
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2013 2014
Year
Sultana
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2013 2014
Year
Total committed intake
Total required intake
(Demand)
Projected Supply
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 25 -
Trend Graphs for Selected Varieties
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 26 -
NOTES ON TREND GRAPHS PROVIDED IN SECTION 4
The following graphs show the historical trends in tonnages for the 3 years preceding the current vintage where data exists and for the next 1 year where projected data is available.
Possible spot market requirement (wine grapes sought on the open market)
This figure is inferred from the difference between committed intake (own grown & purchased) and total required intake.
Where data exists, graphs showing the historical trend in weighted average price for 5 years preceding the current vintage are also included. These graphs represent the Calculated Average Purchase Value per Tonne (formerly Weighted Average Weighbridge Price) for all wine grapes purchased from the Murray Darling / Swan Hill regions, not only those purchased by Sunraysia wineries. Graphs have been provided for major varieties in the 2012 vintage. It is important to note that wineries were asked to only provide committed purchase figures on their existing arrangements. Planned or possible future contracts or renewals have not been taken into account in this figure. The projected spot market requirement may therefore change over time as contracts are renewed or new contracts signed.
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 27 -
Cabernet Sauvignon
Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Cabernet Sauvignon
0
5,00010,000
15,000
20,00025,000
30,000
35,000
40,00045,000
50,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Harvest Year
To
nn
es
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total crushed
Committed winery
grown
Committed contract
purchases
Required intake
(demand)
Possible spot market
requirement
Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Cabernet Sauvignon
$399
$637
$412
$313 $310
$401
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harvest Year
Va
lue
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 28 -
Chardonnay
Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Chardonnay
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Harvest Year
To
nn
es
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total crushed
Committed winery
grown
Committed contract
purchases
Required intake
(demand)
Possible spot market
requirement
Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Chardonnay
$396
$521
$293
$224$251
$293
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harvest Year
Va
lue
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 29 -
Colombard
Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Colombard
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Harvest Year
To
nn
es
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total crushed
Committed winery
grown
Committed contract
purchases
Required intake
(demand)
Possible spot market
requirement
Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Colombard
$297
$423
$283
$227$193
$222
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harvest Year
Valu
e
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 30 -
Merlot
Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Merlot
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Harvest Year
To
nn
es
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total crushed
Committed winery
grown
Committed contract
purchases
Required intake
(demand)
Possible spot market
requirement
Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Merlot
$400
$598
$381
$301 $307$379
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harvest Year
Valu
e
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 31 -
Muscat Gordo Blanco
Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Muscat Gordo Blanco
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Harvest Year
To
nn
es
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total crushed
Committed winery
grown
Committed contract
purchases
Required intake
(demand)
Possible spot market
requirement
Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Muscat Gordo Blanco
$374
$456
$366
$294$343
$400
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harvest Year
Valu
e
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 32 -
Petit Verdot
Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Petit Verdot
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Harvest Year
To
nn
es
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total crushed
Committed winery
grown
Committed contract
purchases
Required intake
(demand)
Possible spot market
requirement
Historical Calculated Average Purchase Value – Petit Verdot
$321
$619
$392
$295 $270$304
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harvest Year
Va
lue
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 33 -
Pinot Gris/Grigio
Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Pinot Gris/Grigio
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Harvest Year
To
nn
es
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total crushed
Committed winery
grown
Committed contract
purchases
Required intake
(demand)
Possible spot market
requirement
Historical Calculated Average Purchase Value – Pinot Gris/Grigio
$694 $700
$611$549
$430
$509
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harvest Year
Va
lue
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 34 -
Riesling
Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Riesling
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Harvest Year
To
nn
es
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total crushed
Committed winery
grown
Committed contract
purchases
Required intake
(demand)
Possible spot market
requirement
Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Riesling
$506 $505
$381
$300
$233
$357
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harvest Year
Valu
e
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 35 -
Sauvignon Blanc
Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Sauvignon Blanc
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Harvest Year
To
nn
es
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total crushed
Committed winery
grown
Committed contract
purchases
Required intake
(demand)
Possible spot market
requirement
Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Sauvignon Blanc
$516 $523
$456
$355$307
$335
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harvest Year
Valu
e
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 36 -
Semillon
Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Semillon
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Harvest Year
To
nn
es
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total crushed
Committed winery
grown
Committed contract
purchases
Required intake
(demand)
Possible spot market
requirement
Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Semillon
$365
$472
$309
$249 $248$292
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harvest Year
Va
lue
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 37 -
Shiraz
Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Shiraz
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Harvest Year
To
nn
es
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total crushed
Committed winery
grown
Committed contract
purchases
Required intake
(demand)
Possible spot market
requirement
Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Shiraz
$424
$642
$416
$310 $294$356
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harvest Year
Va
lue
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 38 -
Sultana Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Sultana
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Harvest Year
To
nn
es
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total crushed
Committed winery
grown
Committed contract
purchases
Required intake
(demand)
Possible spot market
requirement
Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Sultana
$241
$349
$272
$217 $226 $220
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harvest Year
Valu
e
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 39 -
List of Wineries Returning Survey Forms
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 40 -
THANK YOU TO THE FOLLOWING WINERIES WHO RESPONDED TO THE 2012 SURVEY Accolade Wines Deakin Estate The Wine Group
Angoves Dorrien Estate Winery The Yalumba Wine Company
Australian Vintage Kingston Estate Wines Treasury Wine Estates
Austwine Viticulture Oak Valley Estate Boutique Winery Trentham Estate
Buller Wines Orlando Wines Vintage Traders
Casella Wines Qualia Wine Services Warburn Estate
De Bortoli Wines Red Cliffs Wines Zilzie Wines