2012 04 30 keep calm and carry on - strategic society · 2019. 10. 8. · an esrc research centre...
TRANSCRIPT
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Keep Calm and Carry On? Policy, Psychology and the Effects of ‘Economic War’ !!British Library!!Monday April 30th, 2012!
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Professor Mel Bartley, UCL Professor Peter Taylor-Gooby, University of Kent Professor Edgar Jones, King’s College London James Lloyd, The Strategic Society Centre
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An ESRC Research Centre
1
…...bridging social and biological sciences
www.ucl.ac.uk/icls
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An ESRC Research Centre
Unemployment and health in the life course
• Long history of concern with health impact of unemployment
• In the 1930s, attempts were made to deny any effect
• Charles Webster “Healthy or Hungry Thirties” found that it depended on region
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An ESRC Research Centre
Effect on health of recessions
• Even in a deep recession, most working age men remain employed
• 20% unemployment rate is very high (this is what they have at present in Spain)
• What happens to those who remain in work?
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An ESRC Research Centre
Working through a recession
• Those who remain in work may become more anxious and insecure about their jobs
• In order to keep working after redundancy, people tend to have to accept jobs with lower pay, less job security and often more work hazards
• But prices often fall as well, so money buys more (e.g. at present mortgage interest is low)
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An ESRC Research Centre
Does recession influence health?
• Not a clear question. Could mean: – Do recessions damage population health? – Does unemployment damage health of
individuals • Mental health • Physical health • Life expectancy
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An ESRC Research Centre
Employment and unemployment rates, UK 2007-9
Working age employment rateJanuary 2007 to July 2009
72
73
73
74
74
75
75
76
Jan-Mar2007
May-Jul2007
Sep-Nov2007
Jan-Mar2008
May-Jul2008
Sep-Nov2008
Jan-Mar2009
May-Jul2009
Quarter
Rate (%)
Source: ONS, Labour Force Survey
Working age unemployment rateJanuary 2007 to July 2009
5
6
7
8
9
Jan-Mar2007
May-Jul2007
Sep-Nov2007
Jan-Mar2008
May-Jul2008
Sep-Nov2008
Jan-Mar2009
May-Jul2009
Quarter
Rate (%)
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An ESRC Research Centre
Trajectories of unemployment in present and previous recessions
from “Jobs Crisis”, John P martin, OECD Observer No 274, October 2009
2007---- 1973---- 1979---- 1990---- 2000----
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An ESRC Research Centre
Unemployment and economic inactivity: diverging trends 1980-2008
Men 16-64 1980 to 2008
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
%
Unemployment Inactivity
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/TSDdownload2.asp 23 Feb 2009
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An ESRC Research Centre
Changes in employment status and mental health
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
Employed T1 Unemployed T1
Size
of e
ffect
Employed T2 Unemployed T2
Worse mental health
Better mental health
Summary of longitudinal studies on unemployment and mental health
Source: Paul & Moser J Voc Behavior 2009
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An ESRC Research Centre
Relationship between labour market status and GHQ-12 “caseness”. Men
Adjustments: age; Mental health last year; education; physical health; marital situation; employment status last year; housing tenure; region; macroeconomic conditions; financial situation; substance abuse;
Source: Ellen Flint unpublished PhD thesis 2012
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An ESRC Research Centre
Relationship between labour market status and GHQ-12 “caseness”. Women
Adjustments: age; Mental health last year; education; physical health; marital situation; employment status last year; housing tenure; region; macroeconomic conditions; financial situation; substance abuse;
11
Source: Ellen Flint unpublished PhD thesis 2012
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An ESRC Research Centre
Suicide and suspected suicide mortality in England and Wales 1971-2008
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1971 1981 1991 2001 2003 Dec-08
DSR/million
Men
Women
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An ESRC Research Centre
Comparison of mortality between employed and unemployed 1971-2001: Men aged 50-59
www.ucl.ac.uk/icls 13 Source: Akinwale et al JECH 2011
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An ESRC Research Centre
Comparison of mortality between employed and unemployed 1971-2001: women aged 50-59
www.ucl.ac.uk/icls 14
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An ESRC Research Centre
Is unemployment bad for health?
• Mental health effects always accepted • Mortality figures very controversial • But have now been replicated 3 times • Which is more than many studies of e.g.
drug effectiveness • Has anyone costed the economic gains?
www.ucl.ac.uk/icls 15
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