Resource Development

35Mercy CorpsConflict Management Monitoring & Evaluation

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Theories of ChangeConflict Management Monitoring & Evaluation

A theory of change is an explanation of how and why a set of activities will bring about the changes a project seeks to achieve.

Reflective Peacebuilding2

Uganda: Conflict and Economic Development

Conflict Management Monitoring & EvaluationTheory of Change: If we build economic relationships across ethnic lines of division, then stability will increase because people will receive tangible economic benefits to cooperation.3Diagramming Theories of Change

Conflict Management Monitoring & EvaluationWe build economic relationships across ethnic lines of divisionPeople will see tangible economic benefits to cooperationIFTHENBECAUSEInterventionResultExplanation Stability will increase4Good Theories of Change are

Conflict Management Monitoring and Evaluation

SIMPLEIf we do X, then we will see Y, because of Z

MEASURABLENext lesson!5Iraq Example: Theories of Change

Conflict Management Monitoring & EvaluationWe provide negotiation training to Iraq leadersThey gain confidence and expertise in their negotiation skillsIFTHENBECAUSEInterventionResultWhy? Leaders will use their new skills to resolve disputes6

Theories of Change ExerciseConflict Management Monitoring & EvaluationList all theories of change for ICRRWhat are the main interventions, or the IF boxWhat are the main results linked to those interventions, the THEN boxWhat is the explanation that links the two, the BECAUSE boxThere is no right or wrong answer

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Theories of Change?

If we provide influential Iraqis with negotiation tools and skills, they will use them to resolve disputes.If we bring leaders together across lines of division, they will build the relationships and trust they need to resolve shared problemsIf leaders resolve disputes in a way that takes into account the interests of all parties even the less powerful then perceptions of governance will improve andnegotiated agreements will be more durableConflict Management Monitoring & Evaluation

8So, it really is a pretty simple program provide negotiation training to Iraqi leadersBut when I started to work with the field team on M&E it was fascinating to see how many different ideas they had about what the program was trying to accomplish and how contested some of the theories of change were.So here is the first TOC I proposed, and this one caused a lot of controversyHere are a few others there were a lot that we discussedBottom line is that the TOCs stayed fairly fluid over the life of the program and we developed new TOCs as we gathered evidence from this program and from othersTwo we are starting to look at quite closely:Formal-informal governance structuresRole of religious leaders in durability/legitimacy of negotiated agreementsPerfectly OK that some TOCs remained fluid, but we need to specify at least a few and in particular, MUST measure the simple ones35Section 2: Conflict Management Indicators

9Developing Indicators of Change

Conflict Management Monitoring & EvaluationWe build economic relationships across ethnic lines of divisionPeople will see tangible economic benefits to cooperationIFTHENBECAUSE# of multi-ethnic business associations establishedDecrease in violent incidents related to economic disputes# of people who believe they will lose money if violence breaks out with other ethnic group Stability will increase10

Indicator Mapping to Baseline SurveyConflict Management Monitoring & EvaluationPick two theories of changeFind the questions/indicators in the baseline survey that will help you test your theory of changeWhich indicators/questions are missing? Out of a 53 question survey, only 5 or 6 were clearly linked to our (now specified) theories of changeNice to know vs. need to know is an important consideration given logistical difficulties of operating in conflict environments

11Developing Indicators for Theories of Change

Conflict Management Monitoring & EvaluationWe provide negotiation training to Iraq leadersThey gain confidence and expertise in their negotiation skillsIFTHENBECAUSE??# of disputes resolved in the past yearSense of expertiseSense of confidence Leaders will use their new skills to resolve disputes12

Survey ResultsIraq Conflict Management & GovernanceWe got some good demographic data from the survey.Women and religious leaders were under-representedGood mix of formal and informal governance leaders.Participants had greater confidence in their skills, were tackling more disputes, and were reporting higher success rates.Data showed that some of our initial assumptions about zero-sum attitudes were wrong

13Participants who considered themselves expert in negotiation increased from 27% to 54%.Those who expressed high confidence in their ability to resolve disputes increased from 66% to 80%. Participants reporting involvement in three or more dispute resolution attempts increased from 71% to 83%. Participants who reported reaching agreement more than half the time increased from 83% to 98%.

A lot of questions remained.

Some of our questions just didnt get at what we wanted to know, for example, questions about levels of interaction with leaders from across lines of division.Were participants actually using the skills we gave them to resolve disputes?Was the increase in confidence due to the skills or something else?

Out of a 53 question survey, only 5 or 6 were clearly linked to our (now specified) theories of changeNice to know vs. need to know is an important consideration given logistical difficulties of operating in conflict environments

Focus GroupsIraq Conflict Management & GovernanceEight focus groups were held in seven locations with 54 (64%) network members. Evidence took us a step closer in evaluating some of our theories of change. Participants were using skills from training and could give concrete examples of where and how.Focus group discussions provided important information about how to refine existing theories of change or develop new ones.Participants did not seem to be developing strong working relationships in the training sessions, but rather through small professional exchangesEnormous pride in Iraqi trainers and Iraqi case studies

14The questions were designed to probe for information about whether and how participants were using new skills, where tools did not work, and recommendations for future programming. .

Agreement Database and FormsIraq Conflict Management & GovernanceResolved over 130 disputes, they told us that the really sensitive ones were none of our business.They seem to be resolving more complex disputes, but we havent quite figured out how to measure that one yetCommunities and governments are dumping money into these agreements. Added a field when we learned that. Most agreements appear to be holding, but we need to track that over timeViolent incidents related to disputes decreasing, in a context where violence was increasing overall

15The program began in early 2009 during a period of relative stability following U.S. and Iraqi military successes. However, as Iraq made its way through several critical transitions over the next two years, there were several periods of significant uncertainty and instability.

These included provincial elections in 2009, which saw the re-entry of Sunnis into political life following their boycott of 2005 elections;

the July 2009 handover of security to Iraqi Forces and the subsequent withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraqi cities into military bases;

the March 2010 parliamentary elections that resulted in political deadlock and left Iraq without a sitting government for eight months;

and the withdrawal of U.S. combat troops in August 2010.