20111123 paris asian economic growth
TRANSCRIPT
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Asian Economic Growth and Intellectual
Capital
Carol Yeh-Yun Lin
Dept. of Business Administtation
National Chengchi University, TaiwanNov. 23, 2011
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Outlines
Briefing of National Intellectual Capital
Economic growth in Asia
The impact of financial crisis
National intellectual capital and GDP growth
National intellectual capital growth model
Policy implications
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Are you ready for the era of big data?
By constantly testing, bundling, synthesizing, and
making information instantly available across theorganizationfrom the store floor to the CFOsofficethe rival company had become a different, farnimbler type of business.
Over time, we believe big data may well become anew type of corporate asset that will cut acrossbusiness units and function much as a powerful branddoes, representing a key basis for competition.
This trend applies to nations as well.
*
OCTOBER 2011, McKinsey Quarterly,
Source: McKinsey Global Institute
Brad Brown, Michael Chui, and James Manyika
http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/ -
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Briefing of National Intellectual Capital
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Variables in each type of capital
Human Capital index Market capital indexSkilled labor* Corporate tax*Employee training* Cross-border venture*Literacy rate Openness of culture*Higher education enrollment Globalization*Pupil-teacher ratio Transparency*Internet subscribers Image of country*Public expenditure on education
Exports of goods
Process capital index Renewal capital index
Business competition environment* Business R&D spendingGovernment efficiency* Basic research*Intellectual property rights protection* R&D spending/GDPCapital availability* R&D researchersComputers in use per capita Cooperation between universities and
enterprises*Convenience of establishing new firms* Scientific articlesMobile phone subscribers Patents per capita (USPTO + EPO)Remarks:Financial capital is the logarithm of GDP per capita adjusted by purchasing power parity.
Variables marked with an asterisk are rated qualitatively using a scale of 110.
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Ranking Human
capital
Market
capital
Process
capital
Renewal
capital
Financial
capitalOverall IC
1Denmark Singapore Denmark Switzerland Norway Sweden
2Sweden Hong Kong Singapore Sweden Singapore Switzerland
3Iceland Ireland Finland Finland USA Denmark
4Israel Netherlands Switzerland Israel Hong Kong Finland
5Norway Chile Hong Kong USA Ireland Singapore
Top 5 out of 48 National Intellectual Capital Rankings
2005-2010
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The impact of financial crisis
Economic development in AsiaChina, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan
(The Greater China)
Japan, India, Korea, Malaysia
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0
50
100
150
200
250
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
%
Trade to GDP %
China
Hong Kong
Singapore
Taiwan
India
Japan
Korea
Malaysia
France
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0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
China
Hong Kong
Singapore
Taiwan
India
Japan
Korea
Malaysia
France
% GDP per capita (ppp) growth 2001 vs. 2010
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8.6 8.8 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.8 10
China
Hong Kong
Singapore
Taiwan
India
Japan
Korea
Malaysia
France
Students PISA Performance on 1-10 scale 2001-2010 Average
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10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
%
Total general government debt (%GDP)
China
Hong Kong
Singapore
Taiwan
Estonia
Finland
Sweden
The impact of financial crisis
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-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
-
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
%
Real GDP growth per capita %
China
Hong Kong
India
Korea
Malaysia
Singapore
Taiwan
France
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-
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
%
Unemployment Rate of Labor Force
China
Hong Kong
India
Korea
Malaysia
Singapore
Taiwan
France
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-
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
%
Total general government debt (%GDP)
China
Hong Kong
India
Korea
Malaysia
Singapore
Taiwan
France
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The problem of government debt
The historical experience gives a very clear
view that the aftermath of a financial crisis
brings slow and halting growth, sustained high
unemployment, and surging public debtwith
the overhang ofpublic and private debt beingthe most important impediment to a normal
recovery from recession.
(This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly
by Carmen M. Reinhartand Kenneth Rogoff)
http://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1319128237&sr=1-1http://www.amazon.com/Carmen-M.-Reinhart/e/B001JJA510/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_1?qid=1319128237&sr=1-1http://www.amazon.com/Carmen-M.-Reinhart/e/B001JJA510/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_1?qid=1319128237&sr=1-1http://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1319128237&sr=1-1 -
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10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
%
Total general government debt (%GDP)
China
Hong Kong
Singapore
Taiwan
Estonia
Finland
Sweden
National intellectual capital
and GDP growth
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Overall Intellectual Capital vs. GDP per capita (ppp) for 48 countries in 2010
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National intellectual capital growth model
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Good
Better
A
A+
Current Status
Big
Stride
Intellectual Capital Growth
GDP Growth
High
Low High
National Intellectual Capital Growth Model
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Potential paths of National Intellectual
Capital Development
Route #1:HC + MC + PC FC + overall IC (China, Korea)
Route #2:HC + MC + RC FC + overall IC (Sweden)
Route #3:HC + PC + RC FC + overall IC (Singapore)
Route #4:HC + PC FC + overall IC (Ireland)
Route #5:HC + RC FC + overall IC (Taiwan)
Route #6:PC FC + overall IC (Poland)
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Policy implications
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Implication - 1
Market capital of France is going backwards
China is still behind, yet Hong Kong is part of
China and is well developed in both intangibles
and tangibles
Singapore and Taiwan are Chinese societies
(bamboo network)
Singapore was hard hit by financial
crisis, yet bounced back very fast
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Implication - 2 In general, Asians are very diligent people
Current and future human resources in the mentionedAsia countries are very qualified (high-tech engineers,PISA)
China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and even Japan,Korea are under the influence of Confucianism
(benevolent, loyal, harmonious, polite Korea is developing very fast
Malaysia is very aggressive and shows goodperformance in trading
Innovation and entrepreneurshipin the mentioned Asian countries
are increasingly evident
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Conclusion
Know thy yourself Strategy formation
Short term: market capital + process capital
Long term: human capital + renewal capital
Benchmarking
Partnering & collaborating
Within Europe
With Asia
Goal setting
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www.nic40.org
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Thank [email protected]