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Knowledge network for System Innovations and transitions (www.ksinetwork.nl) Transformative Change towards Sustainable Mobility Jan Rotmans Jan Rotmans Oslo, 31-01-2011 Oslo, 31-01-2011

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Page 1: 20110131 oslo

Knowledge network for System Innovations

and transitions (www.ksinetwork.nl)

Transformative Change towards Sustainable Mobility

Jan RotmansJan Rotmans

Oslo, 31-01-2011Oslo, 31-01-2011

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Persistent Problems

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Persistent problems

• our society faces a number of persistent problemsour society faces a number of persistent problems

• many examples: climate change, energy supply, many examples: climate change, energy supply,

water problem, mobility problem, agriculture, health carewater problem, mobility problem, agriculture, health care

• persistence is due to system failures that are deeply rootedpersistence is due to system failures that are deeply rooted

in our societal structuresin our societal structures

• regular policy aimed at incremental improvementregular policy aimed at incremental improvement

is not enough to resolve persistent problemsis not enough to resolve persistent problems

transformative change is neededtransformative change is needed

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Persistency of mobility system

• congestioncongestion10% of Europese car network confronted with traffic jams10% of Europese car network confronted with traffic jams

• victimsvictims 41.000 victims per year in Europe41.000 victims per year in Europe

• space usespace use75% increase over the last 30 years75% increase over the last 30 years

• pollutionpollution 30% of CO2-emissions in Europe due to transport30% of CO2-emissions in Europe due to transport

• noisenoise 33% of Europeans exposed to damaging noise pollution33% of Europeans exposed to damaging noise pollution

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Damage of unsustainable symptoms

• total expenses for transport sector in Europe aretotal expenses for transport sector in Europe are

about 1500 billion Euro, is 10% of European GDP about 1500 billion Euro, is 10% of European GDP

• estimated damage as a result of congestion is aboutestimated damage as a result of congestion is about

1 % of European GDP and increases till about1 % of European GDP and increases till about

2 % by 20202 % by 2020

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Conclusion

the current mobility system is far from the current mobility system is far from sustainablesustainable

both on the European and on the Dutch scaleboth on the European and on the Dutch scale

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Sustainability Transitions

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fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in

societal (sub)systemsocietal (sub)system

• structure:structure: physical infrastructure, economic physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure infrastructure (market, consumption, production), (market, consumption, production), institutionsinstitutions

(rules, regulations, collective (rules, regulations, collective actors)actors)

• culture:culture: collective set of values, norms, perspectivecollective set of values, norms, perspective

(shared orientation), paradigm (defining(shared orientation), paradigm (defining

problems and solutions)problems and solutions)

• practices:practices: routines, behaviour, ways of handling,routines, behaviour, ways of handling,

implementation at the individual levelimplementation at the individual level

incumbent structure, culture and practices need to be brokenincumbent structure, culture and practices need to be broken

down and new (sustainable) ones need to be built up down and new (sustainable) ones need to be built up

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20 - 30 years

Acceleration phasePredevelopment phase

20 – 30 years

Breakthrough to sustainable society

Widespread application

of new paradigms

Distribution and diffusion of societal advantages

Tipp

ing

Poin

t

Battle between old and

new paradigm

Build up and decay

of institutions

energy

Time

We are here

Consolidatiion

transport

fisheries

health care

agriculture

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Examples of transitions

• from coal energy supply to gas energy supplyfrom coal energy supply to gas energy supply

• from fossil fuel based energy to renewable energyfrom fossil fuel based energy to renewable energy

• from an industrial - to service - to knowledge economyfrom an industrial - to service - to knowledge economy

• from physical, traditional media to social mediafrom physical, traditional media to social media

partly planned, partly emerging processespartly planned, partly emerging processes

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Transition = Power battle

regime will try to maintain and defend its existing power regime will try to maintain and defend its existing power and will try to eliminate or assimilate niche-regimeand will try to eliminate or assimilate niche-regime

regime has diverse defence mechanisms in the form ofregime has diverse defence mechanisms in the form ofresistances: institutional, governance, technological, economicresistances: institutional, governance, technological, economicand social resistanceand social resistance

especially newcomers (niches), together with ‘change-inclined’especially newcomers (niches), together with ‘change-inclined’regime actors can break through the existing order and structure regime actors can break through the existing order and structure

transition = regime-shifttransition = regime-shift = shift in power = shift in power

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Sustainability as orientation

sustainability serves as guiding orientation for transitionsustainability serves as guiding orientation for transition

sustainable development is a socially and scientificallysustainable development is a socially and scientificallycontested notion: contested notion: no unique definition or approachno unique definition or approach

transitiontransition approachapproach

organize reflexive search and learning process with organize reflexive search and learning process with stakeholders [frontrunners] to assess what sustainabilitystakeholders [frontrunners] to assess what sustainabilityis in a particular contextis in a particular context

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Mobility System

• structure:structure: traditionally organized, many actors traditionally organized, many actors involvedinvolved

limited collective sterring capacitylimited collective sterring capacity

• culture:culture: dominant paradigm focused on dominant paradigm focused on automobilityautomobility distinction between mobility modalitiesdistinction between mobility modalities

• practices:practices: all routines, behaviour, ways of all routines, behaviour, ways of handling,handling,

are oriented towards carsare oriented towards cars

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Mobility is complex, adaptive system

• is continuously changing and consists of interconnectedis continuously changing and consists of interconnected

components that essentially influence each other components that essentially influence each other

(co-evolution)(co-evolution)

• has a certain unpredictability (chaotic behaviour)has a certain unpredictability (chaotic behaviour)

• has self-organizing capacity (actors respond to eachhas self-organizing capacity (actors respond to each

intervention in an ‘unexpected’ manner through adaptationintervention in an ‘unexpected’ manner through adaptation

of thier behaviour = reflexive ability)of thier behaviour = reflexive ability)

• as long as we do not take account of this complexityas long as we do not take account of this complexity

each policy ‘solution’ is doomed to fail each policy ‘solution’ is doomed to fail

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Multiple Levels

Macro-levelglobalization, demographic trendshypermobilityclimate change

Meso-levellimited collective steering capacityfailing mobility policy Increasing norms for CO2, fine particles

Micro-level mobility innovation programmesmobility experiments

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Dutch mobility system is in a lock-in stateDutch mobility system is in a lock-in state

‘ ‘ measures for achieving sustainable mobility either : measures for achieving sustainable mobility either :

are acceptable but have no serious impacts orare acceptable but have no serious impacts or

have impacts but no broad support in society ’have impacts but no broad support in society ’

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Transition Governance

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Transition governance

rules of thumbrules of thumb

• long-term thinking as the basis for short term policylong-term thinking as the basis for short term policy

• think in terms of multiple domains (multi-domain), think in terms of multiple domains (multi-domain), different actors (multi-actor), different actors (multi-actor), different levels (multi-level)different levels (multi-level)

• learning as an important aim for policy (‘learning-by-learning as an important aim for policy (‘learning-by-doing’ and ‘doing-by-learning’)doing’ and ‘doing-by-learning’)

• using uncertainties as a starting point for governanceusing uncertainties as a starting point for governance

• keeping options open (wide playing field)keeping options open (wide playing field)

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Transition approach

principlesprinciples

- put energy in frontrunners and not in the packput energy in frontrunners and not in the pack

- bring frontrunners together in protected spaces bring frontrunners together in protected spaces

- develop a long-term agenda, incl. vision + pathwaysdevelop a long-term agenda, incl. vision + pathways

- start with portfolio of transition experimentsstart with portfolio of transition experiments

- create new coalitions around pathways & experimentscreate new coalitions around pathways & experiments

searching, learning, experimentingsearching, learning, experimenting

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Transition approach cycle

vision, pathways,transition

agenda

transition arena

transition experiments

evaluation, monitoring

learning

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society

Transition arenasRegular policy arena

- Short term- Peloton - Incremental change- Problem- and goal oriented

- Long term- Innovators - System-innovation- Problem- and goal searching

The transition arena space for experimenting and envisioning

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Transition Experiments

ssocietal experiments with high risks (chance of failure) and ocietal experiments with high risks (chance of failure) and a high potential to contribute to a transition processa high potential to contribute to a transition process

how to manage portfolio of transition experiments?how to manage portfolio of transition experiments?

- deepeningdeepening [learn as much as possible from an experiment][learn as much as possible from an experiment]

- broadeningbroadening [repeating an experiment in a different context][repeating an experiment in a different context]

- scaling upscaling up [anchoring of an experiment in the regime[anchoring of an experiment in the regime]]

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Transition Experiments

• energy delivering greenhouseenergy delivering greenhouse

• rush hour avoidancerush hour avoidance

• electric vehicleselectric vehicles

• CCS close to residential areaCCS close to residential area

• sustainable roofssustainable roofs

• regulatory free zonesregulatory free zones

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Ongoing transition processes

• six Dutch ministries have official transition policysix Dutch ministries have official transition policy• Water transitionWater transition• Energy transitionEnergy transition• Construction sector transitionConstruction sector transition• Mobility transitionMobility transition• Biodiversity transitionBiodiversity transition• Health care transitionHealth care transition

• regional governments experiment with transition policyregional governments experiment with transition policy• Provinces Zeeland, Flevoland, North-HollandProvinces Zeeland, Flevoland, North-Holland• Regions such as Zuidvleugel, Texel, Haarlemmermeer, Regions such as Zuidvleugel, Texel, Haarlemmermeer,

TwenteTwente• Cities such as Almere, Rotterdam Cities such as Almere, Rotterdam

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Energy transition• in 2001 initiated by the ministry of Economic Affairs (EZ)in 2001 initiated by the ministry of Economic Affairs (EZ)

• started with a niche (small group of frontrunners within EZ)started with a niche (small group of frontrunners within EZ)evolved into a movement with companies, NGOs, knowledgeevolved into a movement with companies, NGOs, knowledgeinstitutions and individualsinstitutions and individuals

• vision has been developed vision has been developed [‘where do we want to go?’][‘where do we want to go?’]

• 7 main themes chosen7 main themes chosen [platforms or arenas][platforms or arenas]

• 23 transition paths formulated 23 transition paths formulated [‘how to go there from here?’][‘how to go there from here?’]

• 100 transition experiments set up100 transition experiments set up [‘how to implement paths?’][‘how to implement paths?’]

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6 ministriesInfluential personsfrom energy sector

(Ministerie van EZ)

SENTER NOVEM

TRANSITION-PROJECTS

Platform-secretaries

TaskforceEnergy transition

PLATFORMSUSUTAINABLEble

MOBILITY

UKR-support

Frontrunnersoffice

PLATFORMGREEN

RESOURCES

PLATFORMCHAIN-

EFFIICENCY

PLATFORM SUSTAINABLE

ELECTRIC.

PLATFORM BUILT

ENVIRONMENT

PLATFORMNEW GAS

23 23 TransitionTransition-pathways-pathways

11Long-term Long-term

visionvision

100-en100-enTransitionTransition

experimentsexperiments

PLATFORMGREENHOUSE

SOURCE

IPE Supporting

staff

“6 DG”team

InterdepartementaleProgramme boardEnergy transition

Energy transition begonnen met 1 arena…..

77TransitionTransition

themesthemes

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What has been achieved?

• sense of urgency, high ambition levelsense of urgency, high ambition level

• new discours, agenda of reform, breakthrough projectsnew discours, agenda of reform, breakthrough projects

• broad movement with 1000 people involvedbroad movement with 1000 people involved

• high amount of time, manpower, energy investedhigh amount of time, manpower, energy invested

butbut

still dominance of regime players and danger ofstill dominance of regime players and danger ofbecoming and execution process and becoming and execution process and institutionalizedinstitutionalized

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Role of government notnot in a directing role in a directing role

butbut

• a facilitating, enabling, stimulating role a facilitating, enabling, stimulating role

• still an active but different rolestill an active but different role

- formulating vision and high ambition levelformulating vision and high ambition level- creating space for frontrunnerscreating space for frontrunners- stimulating and enabling transition experiments stimulating and enabling transition experiments - removing barriers for sustainable innovationremoving barriers for sustainable innovation

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Lessons

• natural tendency to an execution processnatural tendency to an execution process

• natural tendency of the government to fall backnatural tendency of the government to fall backin the command-and-control modein the command-and-control mode

• the first period is relatively easy, thereafter arisethe first period is relatively easy, thereafter arisewinners and loserswinners and losers

• space for frontrunners is of crucial importancespace for frontrunners is of crucial importance[financial, organizational, juridical, mental space][financial, organizational, juridical, mental space]

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Transition Policy for

Sustainable Mobility

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Vision on Sustainable Mobility

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Sustainable Mobility

offers offers freedom of movementfreedom of movement

facilitates facilitates experienceexperience

makes makes connections connections (humans & places)(humans & places)

in a clean, safe and affordable mannerin a clean, safe and affordable manner

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Mobility as Service

• mobility as servicemobility as servicechoice from choice from speed, comfort, service, payability speed, comfort, service, payability

• mobility brokermobility brokertravelling menu from door to door with preferencestravelling menu from door to door with preferences

• individual or as a groupindividual or as a groupneighbnourhood, street, community, companyneighbnourhood, street, community, company

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Decoupling of Space & Time

• everybody has its own everybody has its own all-in TomTom all-in TomTom coupled to GIS-systems & routeplanners coupled to GIS-systems & routeplanners

• working when and where you wantworking when and where you want using existing spaces & infrausing existing spaces & infra

• hubs (flexible working places)hubs (flexible working places) each citypart, neighbourhood, streeteach citypart, neighbourhood, street

Slow TravellingSlow Travelling

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Hybrid forms of transport

distinction between collective & individual transport blursdistinction between collective & individual transport blurs

car looses its status as iconcar looses its status as icon

having a car is not any longer self-evidenthaving a car is not any longer self-evident

car is used only if needed car is used only if needed

sharing a car with otherssharing a car with others

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Metamorphosis Mobile

basic vehicle: metamorphosis mobile

flexible, self-steering vehicle for 1 à 2 persons

modular extendable till 4-6-12 persons

modules that can be connected and disconnected

elektric-driven

renting, leasing, buting or sharing with others, C2C

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Transport on the water

as much on the water as on landas much on the water as on land

by watertaxis, water bike, waterscooterby watertaxis, water bike, waterscooter

by ferry, waterbus with space for bikeby ferry, waterbus with space for bike

‘‘amphibious’ vehicles for usage on water and land amphibious’ vehicles for usage on water and land

in many cities you can travel by boat to the stationin many cities you can travel by boat to the station

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Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

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Transition Paths

1. Holland ‘Electro country’ 1. Holland ‘Electro country’

2. Randstad lightrail 2. Randstad lightrail

3. mobility pass3. mobility pass

4. mobility broker4. mobility broker

5. mobility rewarding5. mobility rewarding

6. network structure6. network structure

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Transition Agenda

- innovation of public transport- innovation of public transport

- stimulation of electric transport - stimulation of electric transport

- stimulation of hybrid forms of transport- stimulation of hybrid forms of transport

- stimulation of cycling among allochthonous- stimulation of cycling among allochthonous

- implementation of pricing strategy- implementation of pricing strategy

- integrated spatial planning- integrated spatial planning

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Transition Experiments

- one car free day a week for employees- one car free day a week for employees

- mobility broker for companies / municipalities- mobility broker for companies / municipalities

- ‘avoiding rush hour’ experiment - ‘avoiding rush hour’ experiment

scaling up these transition experimentsscaling up these transition experiments

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Conclusions

- Dutch mobility transition is in a lock-in- Dutch mobility transition is in a lock-in

- perspective on sustainable mobility is lacking- perspective on sustainable mobility is lacking

-- breaking through impasse breaking through impasse

- requires new discourse- requires new discourse

- setting in with multiple modalities- setting in with multiple modalities

- new infrastructure needs to be built up- new infrastructure needs to be built up

- focus on electric car might enhance lock-in - focus on electric car might enhance lock-in