2011 – water, fish 2012 iep workshop what’s...

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Anke Mueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship Council Delta ISB Meeting, May 4, 2012 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s next Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

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Page 1: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

Anke Mueller-Solger,

IEP Lead Scientist,

Delta Stewardship Council

Delta ISB Meeting,May 4, 2012

•2011 – Water, Fish•2012 IEP Workshop•What’s next

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 2: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

BIG Disclaimer:Many graphs and data and their

interpretation in this presentation are PRELIMINARY and

subject to change!!!

Many thanks to everyone who provided data and graphs – all errors in display and interpretation are mine, not theirs.

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 3: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

2011 Was Very Wet

WY 2011

This Year

Graph: CDECResults are PRELIMINARY & subject to

change!

Page 4: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

6.7

26.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

Wat

er V

olum

e (M

AF/

Year

)

Water Year (Oct-Sep)

Total Annual Export Volume (MAF)

Total Annual Inflow Volume (MAF)

Total Annual Outflow Volume (MAF)

34.3

… And Had High In- & Outflows and Record High Exports

Data: DAYFLOW Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 5: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Ave

rage

Sep

-Oct

X2

+ 1

SD (

km)

Calendar Year

Sep-Oct X2 Long-term Sep-Oct X2 Median (1955-2011)

83

… And a Westward Low Salinity Zone in the Fall.(September-October)

Data: DAYFLOW

75

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 6: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

ESA Listed since 1993

CESA Listed since 20092012: ESA Candidate Species

Longfin Smelt

Delta Smelt

Graphs: DFG

Fall

Inde

xFa

ll In

dex

Some Fish Abundance Indices Improved in 2011

Highest since 2006

603

Highest since 2001

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 7: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

4.4

33.9

19.3

7.7

39.7

23.8

11.38.0

13.18.2

15.49.9

1.0 2.9 2.3 3.88.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

Abu

ndan

ce In

dex

Spring: Larval Delta Smelt Index (20 mm)Larval Delta Smelt Index (20 mm) 1995-2011 Median (8.2)

3.2

11.1

4.03.3

11.9

8.0

3.54.7

1.62.9

0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.82.2

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Abu

ndan

ce In

dex

Summer: Juvenile Delta Smelt Index (TNS)Juvenile Delta Smelt Index (TNS) 1995-2011 Median (2.9) 1959-2011 Median (5.4)

899

127

303420

864756

603

139210

74 26 41 28 23 17 29

343

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Wet Wet Wet Wet Wet Fairly Wet

Dry Dry Average Fairly Dry

Fairly Wet

Wet Dry Dry Dry Average Wet

Abu

ndan

ce In

dex

Fall: Subadult Delta Smelt Index (FMWT)Subadult Delta Smelt Index (FMWT) 1995-2011 Median (139) 1967-2011 Median (338)

Delta smelt indices increased throughout 2011

Spring:Highest

since 2006

Summer:Highest

since 2004

Fall: Highest

since 2001Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to

change!

Page 8: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

Some fish indices did not improve in 2011

Threadfin Shad (non-native)

Winter Run Chinook Salmon

8240

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10Num

ber o

f Ret

urni

ng S

alm

on

Sacr

amen

to R

iver

Year

ESA Listed since 1989

Data: DFG

Graph: DFG

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 9: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

What happened?

?2 New IEP Initiatives:

– Fall Low Salinity Habitat Monitoring and

Studies starting Fall 2011→ → → Delta Smelt, Preliminary Results at Workshop

– 2012 IEP Analysis, Synthesis, & Work Planning

Friday

Wednesday

Thursday

2012 IEP Workshop:Some preliminary results

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 10: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

?Friday

WednesdayThursday

2012 Annual IEP Workshop~ 350 registered attendees, 56 talks in 11 sessions, 51 posters

Cooperation with CWEMF; Lake Natoma Inn, Folsom, CA

Photo: Bill Templin, DWR

What happened?

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 11: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

2012 Annual IEP Workshop:

Photo: Bill Templin, DWR

WEDNESDAY, 4/18• Joint CWEMF and IEP

Introduction and Updates• Smelt Life Cycle Models• Applied Hydrodynamic

Modeling and Forecast Tools

• New Delta Lead Scientist, Peter Goodwin

• Joint CWEMF and IEP Poster Session

THURSDAY, 4/19• What’s New in the Salmon

World?• Poster Speed Introductions• Due North: Cache Slough

Complex, Liberty Island and the Deep Water Shipping Channel

• Water Quality Effects, From Producers to Consumers

• IEP Poster Reception

FRIDAY, 4/20• Under the Microscope and

Lower Trophic Critters• Marking, Counting and

Detecting Fish: The Latest and Greatest from Suisun to the North Delta

• Fall Low Salinity Habitat (FLaSH) Studies: Making Sense of Physical and Biological Conditions in 2011

Agenda & Abstracts at http://www.water.ca.gov/iep/activities/workshop.cfm

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 12: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

Thursday

A few Workshop Highlights:

Chinook Salmon

River

Estuary

Ocean

• Ocean, river, estuary conditions all matter –the 4 H’s: hydrology, harvest, hatcheries, and habitat (J. Israel & R. Johnson, Reclamation and S. Lindley, NMFS)

• Survival of migrating juveniles is getting worse - best in North Delta/ Sacramento River (up to 70%), poor in Central Delta (down to < 10%, Russ Perry & Jon Burau, USGS), and poorest in the South Delta/San Joaquin River (often <10%, Pat Brandes, FWS)

• Survival is generally greater at higher flows (several talks). Duration of flow direction may be important metric (B. Cavallo, Cramer Fish Sciences)

• The Sacramento River banks near the city of Sacramento are “lined” with predators (>3 per 100m) – tethered salmon smolts had a 31% chance of being eaten in one hour (Cyril J. Michel, NMFS)

• Review of IEP Delta Juvenile Monitoring & Survival Studies – Public scoping meeting May 11 (J. Kirsch, FWS)

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 13: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

A few Workshop Highlights:

Delta Smelt: New ToolsFriday

134

160

195

231

106

622

918 22

8 30

50

100

150

200

250

DWSC Cache Lindsey Liberty Suisun Sac River

Total Silversides Dissected

Silversides Positive for Smelt

Brian Schreier, DWR: Genetic Detection of Predation on Larval

Delta Smelt by Silversides…

Thursday

… and others: Striped bass, Pikeminnow,Sunfish, Largemouth bass, Gobies, Threadfin

shad, Chinook salmon, Golden shiner,Tule perch, Exopalaemon shrimp,

Three-spine stickleback

Richard Connon, UCD: Transcriptomics & Delta

Smelt Monitoring

Don Portz, Reclamation:Smeltcam

Gonzalo Castillo, FWSDelta smelt ID with

natural marks

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 14: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

A few Workshop Highlights:

Delta Smelt: “FLaSH”Friday

• = Fall Low Salinity Habitat studies• Part of AM required by 2008 FWS Delta Smelt BiOp RPA - “fall X2”• Intensive new monitoring and studies starting in 2011

DFG

UCD

USBRUSGS

USGS

USBR

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 15: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

Brief FLaSH History & Timeline2008 – New FWS Delta Smelt BiOp with prescription

to adaptively manage fall outflow in W & AN years2009 – Habitat Study Group2011 – April – Wet Year designation

• May – Prepared draft AMP• June – Review panel convened by DSP• July – Panel report and AMP revisions• August — FLaSH Preparations• September – Implementation

2012 – Next review in July – 1st FLaSH report• Study continuation, maybe some new studies

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 16: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

FLaSH Terminology• FLaSH: Fall Low Salinity Habitat• X2: distance of salinity 2 from Golden Gate in km• Low salinity zone (LSZ)

– 1-6, where most delta smelt occur in the fall

• Low salinity habitat (LSH)– Includes other stuff that organisms need

• FLaSH Report: Synthesis of Studies in Fall Low Salinity Habitat of the San Francisco Estuary; USGS Scientific Investigations Report– Lead author Larry Brown, USGS– Review by DSP Science Panel in July

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 17: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

Current delta smelt fall range

“Stationary Habitat”

http://www.fws.gov/sfbaydelta/ocap/

After M. Peterson, Reviews in Fisheries Science 11(4): 291-313 (2003)

New Conceptual

Model

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 18: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

Current delta smelt fall range

LSZ

Low Outflow

“Stationary Habitat”

“Dynamic Habitat”

http://www.fws.gov/sfbaydelta/ocap/

After M. Peterson, Reviews in Fisheries Science 11(4): 291-313 (2003)

New Conceptual

Model

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 19: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

Current delta smelt fall range

LSZ

High Outflow

“Stationary Habitat”

“Dynamic Habitat”

http://www.fws.gov/sfbaydelta/ocap/

After M. Peterson, Reviews in Fisheries Science 11(4): 291-313 (2003)

New Conceptual

Model

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 20: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

Higher After Wet Springs

Higher After Wet Springs

After Wet Springs, Broad Fall LSZOverlaps Suisun Region

Higher After Wet Springs

Higher After Wet Springs

More Variable, Higher After Wet Springs

More Variable, Maybe Lower After Wet Springs

Always Low

Always Low

Narrow Fall LSZ In River Channels,Never Overlaps Suisun Region

Always Lower

Always Lower

Always Less Variable, Lower

Less Variable, Maybe Higher

Higher

Higher

Many in South, Fewer in North

Fewer

Bathymetric Complexity

Erodible Sediment Supply

Contaminant Sources

Entrainment Sites

Lower

Lower

Many

More

Net Total Delta Fall Outflow

San Joaquin River Contribution to Fall Outflow

Location and Extent of the Fall LSZ (1-6 psu)

Hydrodynamic Complexity in the Fall LSZ

Wind speed in the Fall LSZ

Turbidity in the Fall LSZ

Contaminant Concentrations in the Fall LSZ

Stationary Abiotic Habitat ComponentsSuisun Region River Confluence

Dynamic Abiotic Habitat ComponentsVariable Fall Outflow Regime Static Fall Outflow Regime

Dynamic Biotic Habitat ComponentsLSZ Overlaps Suisun Region LSZ Overlaps River ConfluenceHigher

Variable

Food Availability and Quality

Predator Abundance

Lower

Higher

X2=74km

X2=85km

Changing Interactions betweenStationary and Dynamic Habitat Components…

Higher Outflow

Lower Outflow

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 21: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

Higher After Wet Springs

Higher After Wet Springs

After Wet Springs, Broad Fall LSZOverlaps Suisun Region

Higher After Wet Springs

Higher After Wet Springs

More Variable, Higher After Wet Springs

More Variable, Maybe Lower After Wet Springs

Always Low

Always Low

Narrow Fall LSZ In River Channels,Never Overlaps Suisun Region

Always Lower

Always Lower

Always Less Variable, Lower

Less Variable, Maybe Higher

Higher

Higher

Many in South, Fewer in North

Fewer

Bathymetric Complexity

Erodible Sediment Supply

Contaminant Sources

Entrainment Sites

Lower

Lower

Many

More

Net Total Delta Fall Outflow

San Joaquin River Contribution to Fall Outflow

Location and Extent of the Fall LSZ (1-6 psu)

Hydrodynamic Complexity in the Fall LSZ

Wind speed in the Fall LSZ

Turbidity in the Fall LSZ

Contaminant Concentrations in the Fall LSZ

Stationary Abiotic Habitat ComponentsSuisun Region River Confluence

Broad, Westward

Higher

Better

May be Higher

Distribution

Growth, Survival, Fecundity

Health and Condition

Recruitment in the next Spring

Constricted, Eastward

Lower

Worse

Lower

Dynamic Abiotic Habitat ComponentsVariable Fall Outflow Regime Static Fall Outflow Regime

Dynamic Biotic Habitat ComponentsLSZ Overlaps Suisun Region LSZ Overlaps River ConfluenceHigher

Variable

Food Availability and Quality

Predator Abundance

Lower

Higher

Delta Smelt ResponsesLSZ Overlaps Suisun Region LSZ Overlaps River Confluence

X2=74km

X2=85km

Changing Interactions betweenStationary and Dynamic Habitat Components…

… lead to Changes in Delta Smelt?!Listed since 1993

Listed since 1993

Higher Outflow

Lower Outflow

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 22: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

Habitat & fish response predictions in the

2011 Fall Outflow Adaptive Management Plan

Variable (Fall Months) 85 km 81 km 74 kmDynamic Abiotic Habitat Components

Average Daily Net Delta Outflow ~5000 cfs? ~8000 cfs? 11400Average Turbidity in the LSZ Lower Moderate HigherAverage Secchi Depth in the LSZ Higher Moderate Lower and 7 others

Dynamic Biotic Habitat ComponentsAverage Phytoplankton Biomass in the LSZ (excluding Microcystis)

Lower Moderate Higher

Contribution of Diatoms to LSZ Phytoplankton Biomass

Lower Moderate Higher

Calanoid copepod biomass in the LSZ Lower Moderate HigherCorbula biomass in the LSZ Higher Moderate Lower and 8 others

Delta Smelt (DS) ResponsesDS growth, survival, and fecundity in fall Lower Moderate HigherDS health and condition in fall Lower Moderate HigherDS Recruitment the Next Year Lower Moderate Higher and 4 others

Predictions for X2 scenarios

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 23: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

• FMWT conducted by DFG

• Began in 1967

• Samples 122 stations Sep-Dec

• 12 minute, oblique tows

• Added WQ, phyto, zoop,…

FLaSH studies complementingIEP Fall Midwater Trawl (FMWT)

Graphic: D. Contreras, DFGResults are PRELIMINARY & subject to

change!

Page 24: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

Current FLaSHAnalysis & Synthesis Approach:

Compare -4 regions (High Salinity, Low Salinity, Fresh, and Cache/SRDWSC)-4 years (2005, 2006, 2010, 2011)

→ Were habitat & fish predictions for 3 fall X2 scenarios accurate?

X2=74 km, ~Fall 2011 X2=85 km, Fall 2010 X2=81 km, ~Fall 2005&6

Graphs: Michael MacWilliams, Delta Modeling Associates, Inc.

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 25: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

1000

10000

100000

1000000

Jan

Feb M

…A

pr M…

Jun Jul

Aug Se

pO

ct N…

Dec Jan

Feb M

…A

pr M…

Jun Jul

Aug Se

pO

ct N…

Dec

Flow

(cfs

)

Net Delta Outflow, 2005-6 and 2010-11

OUT (2005-6)OUT (2010-11)

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00Ja

n F… M…

A…

M…

Jun Jul A… S… O…

N…

D…

Jan F… M

…A

…M

…Ju

n Jul A… S… O…

N…

D…

X2 (k

m)

X2, 2005-6 and 2010-11

X2 (2005-6) X2 (2010-11) Sep-Oct X2=74 km

Outflow & X2

Data: DAYFLOWGraphs: A. Mueller-Solger

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 26: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

2011201020062005

YEAR

2 3 4 5 6 7SURVEY

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2011201020062005

YEAR

2 3 4 5 6 7SURVEY

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2011201020062005

YEAR

2 3 4 5 6 7SURVEY

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

SECC

HI2011201020062005

YEAR

2 3 4 5 6 7SURVEY

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

SECC

HI

Sep Oct Nov Dec Sep Oct Nov Dec

Sep Oct Nov Dec Sep Oct Nov DecCS/SDWSC

1-6 ppt (= LSZ)

>6 ppt

<1 ppt

Secc

hiD

epth

(m)

Secc

hiD

epth

(m)

Data: IEP FMWTGraphs:S. Slater, DFG

Turbidity (1)Monthly Secchi depths lowest in the LSZ and CS/SDWSC (= most turbid).

In LSZ, lowest Secchi depths in Sep & Oct 2011.

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 27: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

Grizzly Bay (LSZ)

Upper Cache Slough

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

Suspended Sediment Concentration

Grizzly Bay

Suisun Cutoff

UpperCache

LibertyIsland

SRDWSC

Turb

idit

y (N

TU)

Sep-Jan Turbidity Averages

PRELIMINARY DATA & Graphs:D. Schoellhamer &T. Morgan, USGS

Turbidity (2)Turbidity & SSC at Suisun Bay sites were higher and more variable than at Cache/SRDWSC sites

LSZ

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 28: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

2005 2006 2010 2011 2005 2006 2010 2011

1

12

1

12

1

12

1

12

1-6 psu 6-12 psu

< 1 psu Cache/SDWSC

< >

< <=

<

< >>

Bloom

Chlo

roph

yll a

(µg/

L)

Year

Phytoplankton Biomass Fall 2011 Phytoplankton Bloom in LSZ

N=912Data: EMP, USGS-Polaris, FMWTGraph: Anke Mueller-Solger, DSC

SFSU data: up to 30 µg/L(F. Wilkerson)

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 29: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

Nov 15,FMWT

Fall 2011 Phytoplankton Bloom Species in LSZ:

Blue-Greens & Diatoms

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

10000000

10000000

1E+09

Sep Oct Nov Dec

Biol

volu

me

(µm

3 /m

L)

Aphanizomenon Anabaena Aulacoseira

Sep. Peak

Nov. Peak

Data: EMP, USGS-Polari, Graph: A. Mueller-Solger, DSCsResults are PRELIMINARY & subject to

change!

Page 30: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

1 2 3 4 5 6

Distance from GG (km)

Carq

.St

rait Suisun

BayWestern

Delta

Dat

e

FallChl a

(µg/L)

Central & San Pablo Bays

Was the fall 2011 phytoplankton bloom unusual?

2 3 4 51 60

Rio VistaGolden Gate

Fall Blooms common in Suisun/West Delta before 1987

Data: EMP, USGS-Polaris, DFG “NZ”,Graph: A. Mueller-

Solger, DSC

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 31: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

Fall blooms only west of Carquinez,except 2011

1 2 3 4 5 6

Distance from GG (km)

Suisun Bay

Western Delta

Dat

e

FallChl a

(µg/L)

Central & San Pablo Bays

“Depression”

Carq

.St

rait

Fall Blooms common in Suisun/West Delta before 1987

Was the fall 2011 phytoplankton bloom unusual?

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 32: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

Acartiella sinensisAcartia spp.

Pseudodiaptomus forbesiPseudodiaptomus marinusSinocalanus doerrii

Tortanus spp.

October

0

5000

November

0

5000

0

December5000

>6 1-6 <1 Cache/SDWSC

Aver

age

BPU

E (µ

g C

arbo

n m

-3)

September

0

5000

No zooplankton samples >6 ppt

Zooplankton Biomass (1) High adult calanoid copepod biomass in LSZ & Cache/DWSC in fall 2011

Data: FMWTGraph: A. Hennessy,DFG

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

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Aver

age

BPU

E (µ

g C

arbo

n m

-3)

0

September

0

14000

October

0

14000

November

0

14000

December

0

14000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Data: IEP EMPGraph: A. Hennessy,DFG

Year

Zooplankton Biomass (2) High total zooplankton biomass in LSZ in fall 2011

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 34: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

May 2009-11

Oct 2009-11

Filtration Rate (m/d)

Corbicula

Potamocorbula

Corbicula

Potamocorbula

Clam grazing in the LSZ is higher in fall than in spring

Data: IEP EMP “GRTS” & Jan Thompson, USGS; Graphs:Jan Thompson, USGS

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 35: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

Clam grazing in Suisun shallows lower in Oct. 2011,Clam grazing in deep Suisun channels higher in Oct. 2011

20

09 L

T5 F

R

2009

LT5

GR

2010

LT5

FR

2010

LT5

GR

2011

LT5

FR

2011

LT5

GR

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Filt

rati

on, G

razi

ng R

ate

(m3

m-2

d-1

)

2009* 2010 2011

20

09 L

T5 F

R

2009

LT5

GR

2010

LT5

FR

2010

LT5

GR

2011

LT5

FR

2011

LT5

GR

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2009* 2010 2011

Data: IEP EMP & J. Thompson, USGS; Graphs: J. Thompson, USGS* 2009 Sep-Oct X2 = 87 km

Suisun Bay < 5 m Suisun Bay > 5 m

1 2 32 2 1= > < <

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 36: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

Delta Smelt Fall Distribution:

Graphic: D. Contreras, DFG

Fall Midwater Trawl (FMWT)

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 37: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

FMWT- September 2011 Delta Smelt In Low Salinity Zone

= 0

= 1-25

CPUE = Catch per 10,000 m3

>6 1-6 <1Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to

change!

Page 38: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

FMWT - October 2011 Delta Smelt Within & Above The Low Salinity Zone

= 0

= 1-25

= 45

CPUE

>6 1-6 <1Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to

change!

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FMWT- November 2011 Delta Smelt Move With The Low Salinity Zone

= 0

= 1-25

CPUE

>6 1-6 <1Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to

change!

Page 40: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

FMWT - December 2011 Delta Smelt Follow The Low Salinity Zone

= 0

= 1-25

= 47

= 211

CPUE

>6 1-6 <1Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to

change!

Page 41: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

Delta Smelt Growth, Health & Nutrition

S. Teh, J. Hobbs,S. Acuna, S. Gandhi –UC Davis

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 42: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

Individual condition &

Growth

Organ Condition

Cellular Condition

Biochemical

Hie

rarc

hy o

f fun

ctio

n

Stressor Response Time

Delta Smelt Health & Nutrition

S. Teh, J. Hobbs, S. Acuna, S. Gandhi –UC Davis

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 43: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

1999 2000 2001 2005 2006 2007 20110.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1999 2000 2001 2005 2006 2007 2011

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

August 1999-2011 September 1999-2011

Gro

wth

Rat

e (m

m/d

ay)

Data and Graphs:J. Hobbs, UC Davis 8 9 10 11 12

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

Gro

wth

Rat

e (m

m/d

ay)

Delta smelt grew well in 2011

Month

2011

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 44: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Cache/ SDWSC

Sto

mac

h co

nten

ts b

y pe

rcen

t num

ber

Pseudo spp. Acartiella Sinocalanus TortanusOther calanoid Cyclopoid Limno spp.

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

rD

ecem

ber

1-6 ppt

890

852

839

223

227

71

308

37

Zooplankton Consumption by Delta Smelt in fall 2011~Selective feeding on Pseudodiaptomus, Acartiella, cyclopoids;

not much Sinocalanusin diet in spite ofhigh abundance inCache/SRDWSC

Data: IEP FMWTGraph: S. Slater, DFG

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 45: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

Habitat & fish response predictions in the

2011 Fall Outflow Adaptive Management Plan – many met!

Variable (Fall Months) 85 km 81 km 74 kmDynamic Abiotic Habitat Components

~ 2005&6 ~2010 ~ 2011

Average Daily Net Delta Outflow ~5000 cfs? ~8000 cfs? 11400Average Turbidity in the LSZ Lower Moderate Higher üAverage Secchi Depth in the LSZ Higher Moderate Lower ü and 7 others

Dynamic Biotic Habitat ComponentsAverage Phytoplankton Biomass in the LSZ (excluding Microcystis)

Lower Moderate Higher ü

Contribution of Diatoms to LSZ Phytoplankton Biomass

Lower Moderate Higher ü

Calanoid copepod biomass in the LSZ Lower Moderate Higher üCorbula biomass in the LSZ Higher Moderate Lower and 8 others

Delta Smelt (DS) ResponsesDS growth, survival, and fecundity in fall Lower Moderate Higher üDS health and condition in fall Lower Moderate HigherDS Recruitment the Next Year Lower Moderate Higher and 4 others

Predictions for X2 scenarios

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 46: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

– “Management, Analysis, and Synthesis Team”Broader IEP Analysis, Synthesis, & Work Planning, 2012 (+?)

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 47: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

– 2012 IEP Analysis, Synthesis, & Work Planning

2012: POD Fish Species – what happened in 2011? : How did changes in habitat conditions

affect the POD fish species? What’s missing?• Includes 2013 Workplan – PSP; Your thoughts? • IEP report – revised conceptual models, assessments• Habitat conditions and fish responses in all seasons

: Were “fall predictions” met?

If MAST Continues:

2013: Other Fish Species?2014: Ecosystem – peer-reviewed “POD Book” (AFS)

Delta Science Plan? (DSP)Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to

change!

Page 48: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

Updated Conceptual Models….

Temperature (spawning window)Predation by Silversides in

freshwater?Entrainment & TransportFood (NH4 Inhibition?)

Contaminants(NH4)

HydrologyWeather

Larvae – March-June

Contaminants(runoff risk)

Exports

Adults – December-March

First flush toxicity?Entrainment

Food?

WeatherOutflowClam grazingNutrients?

Subadults—September-December

FoodTurbidity

Temperature (metabolism ) Harmful Algal Blooms

Size and Location of LSZPredation by striped bass in LSZ?

WeatherHydrologyClam grazingNutrients?

Juveniles – June-September

Food TurbidityTemperature (metabolism) Harmful Algal Blooms

Spawning Stock Larval

Survival

Growth and Survival

Gro

wth

and

Su

rviv

al

– 2012 IEP Analysis & Synthesis

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 49: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

… & “Assessments”Right now REALLY drafty!

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 50: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

… & “Assessments”Right now REALLY drafty!

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 51: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

Reports are Great,Peer-Reviewed Pub.s are Better!

Total IEP POD Funds: ~$32MWith CALFED/Delta Science: ~$52M

$0.00

$2,000,000.00

$4,000,000.00

$6,000,000.00

$8,000,000.00

$10,000,000.00

$12,000,000.00

$14,000,000.00

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

IEP Agency POD Funds, 2006-2011with coordinated CALFED/Delta Science Funds

DWR USBR SWRCB CALFED/Delta Science

Published POD Papers 2006-2011: 64With Manuscripts In Review: 76(+)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 In Review

0

5

10

15

20

25

Peer-Reviewed POD Publications (#)Fish populations Habitat Bottom-Up Top-Down Synthesis

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!

Page 52: 2011 – Water, Fish 2012 IEP Workshop What’s nextdeltacouncil.ca.gov/.../files/Mueller_Solger_IEPUpdateISB_5_4_2012.pdf · AnkeMueller-Solger, IEP Lead Scientist, Delta Stewardship

DFG

USGS

DWR

UCD

SFSU

Thanks!

Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!