likes to lovesWorld Tour 2011 #L2LTour We’re Tweeting! Join

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Likes to Loves Oct 5, 2011

Michael Wu, PhD Principal Scientist of Analytics Lithium Technologies

@mich8elwu

London

#L2LTour

▪ Humans have been social since they were caveman

▪ Cyber-anthropology of social media: shift the focus from technology à relationship

▪ From the relational perspective, there are only 2 major types of social media •  social network •  community

▪ Social in the pre-digital era

social is NOT new

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how do social networks form?

Henley-on-Thames = community

Bob old members new / casual members

weak ties strong ties

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A story of how Bob’s social network was built

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how do social networks form?

college

work

Henley-on-Thames = community

Social networks form naturally within communities as people establishes relationships

Social network maintains relationships as people move between communities

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what do real social network data look like?

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▪ Social Network • Held together by pre-existing

interpersonal relationships between individuals

• You know everyone in your network (ego-network), people who are connected to you directly

• Each person has only one social network, despite there are many social network platforms

• Structure: Network

▪ Community • Held together by some common

interests of a large group of people

• Most people, especially new members, do not know majority of the members in the community

• Any one person may be part of many communities at any given time

• Structure: Hierarchical, overlapping & nested

communities vs. social networks (on/offline)

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▪ Social Networks • Facebook, Linkedin, etc.

▪ Community • Flickr, Yelp, Wikipedia, Youtube,

Digg, etc.

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communities vs. social networks (on/offline)

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▪ Social networks connects people •  It determines who connects to whom • But it doesn’t determine who interacts with whom

▪ A connection is required but not sufficient to guarantee interaction

▪ Connection is easy to maintain, interaction is much harder • Connection: only takes 1 action, no subsequent actions are required:

Once connected, you’ll always be a connection •  Interaction: requires persistent actions over time

▪ A Facebook “Like” = a connection

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connection vs. interaction (engagement)

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▪ The potential value of a connection is huge • That is why Facebook received ~$40 billion valuation

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realizing the value of your connections

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▪ Potential value through influence • Connection to other fans, customers, or consumers à can potentially influence them through WOM

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realizing the value of your connections

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▪ Definition for businesses: • The ability to cause a change in thought (sentiment, opinion, etc.) OR

behavior (purchase, referral, etc.) through non-coercive and transparent means where the targets voluntarily want the changes even with no monetary compensation

▪ It matters how you produce the change • No carrot: no money (doesn’t mean no reward) • No stick: no force/coercion (doesn’t mean no punishment) • No annoyance: no spam/frustration, target has to want it • No trick: no deception/hidden agenda

what is influence?

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what does influence means to your business?

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mass public

consumers

action

interest

awareness

desire

your purchase funnel engage/ empower

unaware consumers

your customers

your brand advocates

(evangelists) competitors’ customers

competitors’ brand advocates

(your brand detractors)

brand Y

brand X

brand Z

your superfans (product experts)

potential (+) influence = promoters potential (−) influence = detractors

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a model for influence

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Domain Credibility: The influencer's expertise in a specific domain of knowledge.

High Bandwidth: The influencer's ability to transmit his expert knowledge through a social media channel.

Content Relevance: How closely the target's information needs coincide with the influencer's expertise.

Timing: The ability of the influencer to deliver his expert knowledge to the target at the time when the target needed it.

Channel Alignment: The amount of channel overlap between the target and the influencer.

Target Confidence: How much the target trusts the influencer with respect to his information needs

influencer

target: influencee

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the importance of relevance and timing

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w/in 1 month 1 month ago 3 month ago 6 month ago

PopGuy

FanGirl WizKid

Friendship

Relevant relationship

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▪ Result 1: 2 mechanisms combine to create WOM values

Acquisition of customers Acceleration of adoption

Summary of Lithium-only data Seeding Program

0 20 40 80 100 120

Random

Influencer

Random

Influencer

Gain via acquisition Gain via acceleration

Competing brands

113%

86.8%

17.4%

10.3%

Brand monopoly

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▪ Result 2: Influencer seeding increases gain

49.4%

Summary of Lithium-only data Seeding Program

Random

Influencer

Random

Influencer

Gain via acquisition Gain via acceleration

Competing brands

113%

86.8%

17.4%

10.3%

Brand monopoly

0 20 40 80 100 120

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▪ Result 3: First mover advantage is huge

7.5x

Summary of Lithium-only data Seeding Program

Random

Influencer

Random

Influencer

Gain via acquisition Gain via acceleration

Competing brands

113%

86.8%

17.4%

10.3%

Brand monopoly

0 20 40 80 100 120

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what does influence means to your business?

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mass public

consumers

action

interest

awareness

desire

your purchase funnel engage/ empower

unaware consumers

your customers

your brand advocates

(evangelists) competitors’ customers

competitors’ brand advocates

(your brand detractors)

brand Y

brand X

brand Z

your superfans (product experts)

potential (+) influence = promoters potential (−) influence = detractors

#L2LTour

▪ Potential value through influence • Connection to other fans, customers, or consumers à can potentially influence them through WOM à can potentially gain value through customer acquisition & accelerated adoption

▪ Potential value through loyalty • Connection to brands à can potentially build stronger/deeper customer-brand relationship

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realizing the value of your connections

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relationship development & maintenance

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disconnected

weak tie

strong tie

2. building tie strength

3. maintaining relationship

1. creating a weak tie

do nothing

do something

bad

Easy! All it takes is

an “hello”

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▪ Potential value through influence • Connection to other fans, customers, or consumers à can potentially influence them through WOM à can potentially gain value through customer acquisition & accelerated adoption

• But w/o interaction, there is no way to spread WOM

▪ Potential value through loyalty • Connection to brands à can potentially build stronger/deeper customer-brand relationship à can potentially gain value through persistent consumption of product & service

• But w/o interaction, there is no way to build any relationship

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realizing the value of your connections

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▪ The latent value of a connection (a fan) is the potential to interact • When people actually interact, they can realize this

value

▪ If fans (connections to brands) don’t interact, they cannot realize their latent value (e.g. WOM influence, loyalty, etc.)

▪ Nevertheless connections do have value, interactions simply create greater value •  “Likes” are good, but it is NOT good enough

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realizing the value of your connections

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▪ Gamification: • The use of game attributes to drive game-like player behavior in a non-game

context with predictability

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how can we drive actions and interactions?

#L2LTour

▪ Gamification: • The use of game attributes to drive game-like player behavior in a non-game

context with predictability

• game attributes •  game mechanics, game dynamics, game design principles, gaming psychology, player

journey, narratives, etc.

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how can we drive actions and interactions?

#L2LTour

▪ Gamification: • The use of game attributes to drive game-like player behavior in a non-game

context with predictability

• game attributes •  game mechanics, game dynamics, game design principles, gaming psychology, player

journey, narratives, etc. • game-like player behavior

•  engagement, interaction, competition, collaboration, awareness, learning, obsession, and/or any other observed player behavior during game play

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how can we drive actions and interactions?

#L2LTour

▪ Gamification: • The use of game attributes to drive game-like player behavior in a non-game

context with predictability

• game attributes •  game mechanics, game dynamics, game design principles, gaming psychology, player

journey, narratives, etc. • game-like player behavior

•  engagement, interaction, competition, collaboration, awareness, learning, obsession, and/or any other observed player behavior during game play

• non-game context •  work, education, health & fitness, sale & marketing, community participation, civic

engagement, volunteerism, goodwill, etc. (anything but a game)

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how can we drive actions and interactions?

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what’s the magic behind gamification?

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Achievement

Appointment Dynamic

Avoidance

Behavioral Contrast

Behavioral Momentum Blissful Productivity

Cascading Information

Theory

Chain Schedules

Combos

Communal Discovery

Communal Collaboration

Collection

Set Completion

Discovery

Companion Gaming

Countdown Cross Situational

Leader-boards

Leader-boards

Disincentives

Endless Games

Envy Epic Meaning

Extinction

Free Lunch

Fixed Interval Reward Schedules

Fixed Ratio Reward Schedule

Free Lunch

Fun Once, Fun Always

Interval Reinforcement

Schedules

Level Up

Lottery

Loyalty

Loss Aversion Micro Leader-boards

Modifiers Moral Hazard of Game Play

Ownership

Pride

Privacy

Progression Dynamic

Points

Quest

Rank

Reputation

Ratio Reward Schedules

Delayed Mechanics

Reinforcer

Response

Reward Schedules

Rolling Physical Goods

Shell Game

Social Fabric of Games

Status Serendipity

Urgent Optimism

Variable Interval Reward Schedules

Variable Ratio Reward Schedule

Viral Game Mechanics Virality

Virtual Items

Social Cohesion

Real-time Mechanics

Contingency

Infinite Gameplay

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▪ Fogg Behavior Model (FBM): • 3 Factors underlying human behavior • Temporal convergence of 3 factors

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behavior model

Motivation Ability Trigger Action

wants can told to

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▪ Fogg Behavior Model (FBM): • 3 Factors underlying human behavior • Temporal convergence of 3 factors

▪ Magic formula of gamification: • Place the proper triggers in the behavioral

trajectory of motivated player, at the moment when he feel the greatest excess in ability

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behavior model

Action

Mot

ivat

ion

Ability

Trigger

activation threshold

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anthropology

community

sociology analytics

relationship

loyalty

influence

gamification

social network social media

psychology

motivation

connection

interaction

behavior model

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Likes

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connection

action & interaction tangible ROI

gamification influence loyalty …

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Likes Loves

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