2010 agribusiness leaders outlook poll. 2010 agribusiness leaders outlook poll methodology 217...
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2010AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS
OUTLOOK POLL
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2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
METHODOLOGY
• 217 surveys sent to one representative at each agribusiness
• 58 responses
• No incentive
• 27% return
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Crops Livestock Combined
Very optimistic 15% 6% 12%
Optimistic 50% 34% 45%
Neutral 28% 50% 35%
Somewhat negative 7% 5% 7%
Very negative 0% 5% 2%
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
What is your overall outlook for your ag business in 2010 compared to 2009?
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Crops Livestock Combined
Very optimistic 3% 0% 2%
Optimistic 45% 50% 35%
Neutral 42% 44% 52%
Somewhat negative 7% 0% 7%
Very negative 3% 6% 4%
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
What is your overall outlook for the general agriculture economy in 2010 compared to 2009?
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Crops Livestock Combined
Very optimistic 0% 0% 0%
Optimistic 31% 44% 35%
Neutral 38% 45% 40%
Somewhat negative 23% 11% 20%
Very negative 8% 0% 5%
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
What is your outlook for the overall U.S. economy in 2010 compared to 2009?
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Corn(86.4 mil in 2009)
Soybeans(77.5 mil in 2009)
Cotton(9.1 mil in 2009)
10%+ increase 0% 2% 6%
5-10% increase 7% 18% 8%
1-4% increase 41% 41% 20%
Same as 2009 31% 18% 25%
1-4% decrease 18% 18% 33%
5-10% decrease 3% 3% 8%
10%+ decrease 0% 0% 0%
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
What do you estimate the change in U.S. planted acres will be next year for the following crops?
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Under $3/bushel 5%
$3.00-$3.24/bushel 19%
$3.25-$3.49/bushel 16%
$3.50-$3.74/bushel 30%
$3.75-$3.99/bushel 5%
$4/bushel and over 24%
AVERAGE $3.50
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
The average corn price in 2009 was $3.30 per bushel. What do you estimate the average selling price will be in 2010?
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Under $8/bushel 5%
$8.00-$8.50/bushel 10%
$8.51-$9.00/bushel 25%
$9.01-$9.50/bushel 15%
$9.51-$10.00/bushel 33%
More than $10/bushel 12%
AVERAGE $9.38
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
The average soybean price in 2009 was $9.50 per bushel. What do you estimate the average selling price will be in 2010?
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Under $0.55/pound 22%
$0.55-$0.60/pound 44%
$0.61-$0.70/pound 13%
$0.71-$0.80/pound 15%
More than $0.80/pound 6%
AVERAGE $0.62
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
The average cotton price in 2009 was $0.54 per pound. What do you estimate the average selling price will be in 2010?
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$3.45-$4.00/bushel 5%
$4.01-$5.00/bushel 28%
$5.01-$5.50/bushel 36%
$5.51-$6.00 20%
More than $6.00/bushel 11%
AVERAGE $5.35
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
The average hard red wheat price in 2009 was $5.20 per bushel. What do you estimate the average selling price will be in 2010?
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Beef Cow/Calf
(31.7 mil in ‘09)
Fed Beef Cattle
(53.5 mil in ‘09)Dairy Cows
(9.3 mil in ‘09)Sows
(6 mil in ‘09)Fed Hogs
(114 mil in ‘09)
10%+ increase 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5-10% increase 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
1-4% increase 27% 20% 13% 7% 7%
Same as 2009 27% 33% 8% 20% 27%
1-4% decrease 33% 33% 53% 26% 40%
5-10% decrease 13% 7% 13% 40% 13%
10%+ decrease 0% 7% 13% 7% 13%
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
What do you estimate the change in the U.S. herd size will be for the following?
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$75/cwt 8%
$85/cwt 15%
$86/cwt 23%
$87/cwt 15%
$88/cwt 15%
$89/cwt 7%
$90/cwt 15%
AVERAGE $86.31
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
The average price for fed cattle in 2009 was $84 per cwt. What do you estimate the average selling price will be in 2010?
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$14/lb 23%
$14.10/lb 8%
$14.25/lb 8%
$14.50/lb 8%
$15/lb 46%
$16/lb 7%
AVERAGE $14.68
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
The average price for milk in 2009 was $12.40 per pound. What do you estimate the average selling price will be in 2010?
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$48/cwt 8%
$50/cwt 8%
$53/cwt 15%
$55/cwt 30%
$57/cwt 8%
$60/cwt 8%
$65/cwt 15%
$70/cwt 8%
AVERAGE $57.00
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
The average price for lean hogs in 2009 was $53 per cwt. What do you estimate the average selling price will be in 2010?
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Crops Livestock Combined
Increase 70% 59% 67%
Same as 2009 18% 29% 21%
Decrease 13% 12% 12%
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
How do you estimate your ag business’s revenues next year will compare to 2009 revenues?
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Crops Livestock Combined
Fewer than 10 72% 94% 80%
10-29 13% 0% 8%
30-49 3% 0% 2%
50-99 6% 0% 4%
100 or more 6% 6% 6%
AVERAGE 28 14 18
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
How many new products/services is your ag business going to launch in 2010?
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Crops Livestock Combined
Significantly more 8% 0% 5%
More 34% 39% 36%
Same 50% 44% 48%
Less 8% 11% 9%
Significantly less 0% 6% 2%
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
How does that compare to last year?
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Field equipment/accessories 9%
Soil/plant nutrients 5%
Crop protection products 14%
Seed/traits 23%
Farmstead & grain storage structures/water management 5%
Ag credit 2%
Insurance 2%
Animal health/feed 14%
Genetics 2%
Livestock handling equipment/animal ID 2%
Other 22%
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
Which of the following is your firm’s major product or service?
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Crops Livestock Combined
More than $5 billion 16% 0% 11%
$1 billion to $5 billion 22% 29% 24%
$500 million to $1 billion 8% 6% 7%
$250 million to $500 million 19% 6% 15%
$100 million to $250 million 11% 29% 17%
Less than $100 million 24% 29% 26%
2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL
Approximately what were your ag business unit’s sales in 2009?