2010 - 2025 scenario and infrastructure analysis · 2010 – 2025 scenario and infrastructure...
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2010 – 2025 Scenario and Infrastructure AnalysisSig Gronich
Technology Validation/Scenario Analysis Manager
Office of Hydrogen, Fuel Cells and Infrastructure TechnologiesEnergy Efficiency and Renewable Energy
U.S. Department of Energy
Presented to
Hydrogen Technical Advisory CommitteeJanuary 9, 2007
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Related NAS Recommendations and EPACT Provision
NAS Recommendation from 2004 Hydrogen Economy Report“DOE should map out and evaluate a transition plan consistent with developing the infrastructure and hydrogen resources necessary to support the committee's hydrogen vehicle penetration scenario oranother similar demand scenario.”
“DOE's policy analysis should be strengthened with respect to thehydrogen economy, and the role of government in supporting and facilitating industry investments to bring a transition to the hydrogen economy needs to be better understood.”
EPACT ProvisionEPACT section 811 requires a report from the Secretary to Congress on measures to support the transition to a hydrogen economy, including those related to producing and deploying hydrogen fueled vehicles and infrastructure.
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Responding to the National Academies’ Recommendations
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar26 9-10 13
2006 2007
DOE Hydrogen TransitionAnalysis Workshop
Workshop: 2010 – 2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure
Fuel Cell Seminar: Public Dissemination of Information
Scenario Analysis Report to the NAS
Scenario Analysis Workshop
Over 60 participants from Energy and Automotive Industries, Federal and State Governments, National
Laboratories and Academia at each meeting
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5,000 hours FC durability300+ mile range$2.50/gge at pump
2010-2025 Scenario Analyses
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
R&D to Meet Targets
Lighthouse Valid.
Policy Actions
Technology Readiness based on lab results and high-pressure storage
2,000 hours FC durability250 mile range$3/gge H2 at pump
Production vehicles
Cold Start
Infrastructure, Vehicle
Learning Demo 1Gen 1 Gen 2
Learning Demo 2Gen 3 Gen 4
Hydrogen Fuel Initiative
Hydrogen Fuel Initiative
Alternative Scenario
3,500 hours durability
Production vehicles based on road tests and integrated fuel network
5,000 hours FC durability300+ mile range$2.50/gge at pump
Learning Demo 2Gen 3 Gen 4
Cur
rent
DO
E Pr
ogra
mPr
opos
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utur
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ptio
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Market Penetration Scenarios Considered in DOE Analyses
Transition Analysis Workshops addressed three scenarios –NAS (scenario 3) and two that are more conservative.
Scenario 1: Hundreds to thousands of vehicles per year by 2012 and by 2018 tens of thousands of vehicles per year. This option is expected to lead to a market penetration of 2.0 million FCVs by 2025.
Scenario 2: Thousands of FCVs by 2012, tens of thousands by 2015 and hundreds of thousands by 2018. This option is expected to lead to a market penetration of 5.0 million FCVs by 2025.
Scenario 3: Thousands of FCVs by 2012, and millions by 2021 such that market penetration is 10 million by 2025. (NRC scenario)
These scenarios are provided for transition analyses as recommended by the National Research Council to evaluate the transition phase and do not represent any specific policy recommendation.
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HEV Sales Compared to Scenarios for FCV Vehicle Market Penetration
Scenarios 1 and 2 are consistent with current and projected HEV penetration rates
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Year
Ann
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ehic
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ales
(tho
usan
ds) Scenario 1
HEV +15 yearsScenario 2Scenario 3HEVs +12 years
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Infrastructure Necessary to Support Vehicle Penetration - Nationwide (2012-2025)1
1500 kg/day Distributed Steam Methane Reforming Stations
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Year
2012-2020 1500 kg/day Stations
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Ye a r
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
• Blown-Up View of the 2012 through 2020 Time Period
Hydrogen Demand
1-Based on NREL and ORNL Analyses
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Recommendation from Scenario Analysis Meeting
Drive Distance
Population % Population (2000 Census LA Urbanized Area and Vicinity)
1 Mile 677,000 4%
2 Mile 2,651,000 14%
3 Mile 5,586,000 30%
Scenario 1 – 2018
Scenario 2 & 3 – 2015
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64.92 Mgal/day
39.36 Mgal/day
81.90 Mgal/day
80.88 Mgal/day
119.32 Mgal/day
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Cost Sharing and Subsidies, Scenario 1, Fuel Cell Success
0.0
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1.0
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2.0
2.5
3.0
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Billi
ons
of 2
004
Dol
lars
/Yr
Scenario1 Station Infr.Scenario1 Fuel SubsidyScenario1 Vehicles
Annual Costs of Cost Sharing and Fuel Subsidy
Prior LegislationEPACT 2005 Section 805 - Programs- H2 Supply (50/50 cost share) SAFETEA-LU (DOT) – Ethanol Tax Credit ($0.50/gal.) provided for hydrogenEPACT 2005 Section 808 – Demonstrations (50/50 cost share)
Cost Sharing and Subsidies, Scenario 2, Fuel Cell Success
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0.5
1.0
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Billi
ons
of 2
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Dolla
rs/Y
r
Scenario2 Station Infr.Scenario2 Fuel SubsidyScenario2 Vehicles
Cost Sharing and Subsidies, Scenario 3, Fuel Cell Success
0.0
0.5
1.0
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Bill
ions
of 2
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Dol
lars
/Yr
Scenario3 Station Infr.Scenario3 Fuel SubsidyScenario3 Vehicles
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Infrastructure Analysis
Infrastructure Impact Analysis
• Hydrogen supply/ demand
• Resource demand
• Infrastructure requirements
• Constraints and limitations
• Others (CO2 sequestration)
Infrastructure Requirements
• Pipelines
• Railroads
• Electrical systems
• Land availability
• Offsites (sewer systems, etc.)
ScenarioAnalysis
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Ann
ual V
ehic
le S
ales
(tho
usan
ds) Scenario 1
HEV +15 yearsScenario 2Scenario 3HEVs +12 years
Resource Demand (includes feedstocks and utilities)
• Supply/Cost Impact
• Resource availability
• Impact on hydrogen product cost
Hydrogen supply/ demand
•Regional demand assessment
• Hydrogen supply cost
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Summary
In response to the NRC recommendation, several scenarios have been proposed for analysis of the possible impact and cost. A report will be presented to the NRC in March 2007 for their further analysis and assessment in compliance with EPACT (section 1825).
The analysis is meant to identify possible scenarios for establishing hydrogen infrastructure during the FCV market introduction.
Industry involvement and feedback is an integral part in the development of an inclusive set of scenarios to be analyzed.
Market conditions/economics and policy actions will determine how the hydrogen market evolves.
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Acknowledgements
David Greene and Paul Leiby of Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Margo Melendez and Anelia Milbrandt of National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Brian James and Julie Perez of Directed Technologies, Inc.
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Additional Information
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TRANSITION STRATEGIES
Focus on near-term nascent hydrogen economy
Stage 1:
•Forecourt
•Cluster or network from mid-size plant
•Use existing infrastructure
•Investigate liquid delivery systemsStage 2:
•Nascent interconnect systemThese scenarios are provided for transition analyses as recommended by the National Research Council to evaluate the transition phase and do not represent any specific policy recommendation.
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Delivery Costs
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
C-NG SMR C-NG SMR C-NG SMR C-NG SMR C-NG SMR
GT HPGT CryoGT LT PL
Cos
t [$/
kg]
Production Terminal Delivery
280 kg Trailer 2100 kg Trailer
657 kg Trailer 4142 kg Trailer
30 miles beyond city edge
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Total Pathway Costs
30 miles beyond city edge
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
C-NGSMR
C-NGSMR
C-NGSMR
C-NGSMR
C-NGSMR
FC LGSMR
FC LGSMR
GT HPGT CryoGT LT PL (LOW) (HIGH)
0.1 TPD 1.5 TPD 1.5 TPD 1.5 TPD 1.5 TPD 1.5 TPD 1.5 TPD
Cos
t [$/
kg]
Production Terminal Delivery Dispensing
Total Cost: $8.81
Total Cost: $2.44
Total Cost: $3.18
Total Cost: $2.42
Total Cost: $3.31
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Possible Regional DeploymentStrategy (NREL Analysis)
Infrastructure Analysis for LA regionInfrastructure Analysis for LA region1,500 kg/day hydrogen refueling station requires about 255,000 cu. ft. per day of natural gas.Such a hydrogen refueling station would be considered a large gas load for a local gas distribution company – roughly equivalent to the ave. load of:
1,200 homes, or 150 commercial customers, orOne 1,800 kW power plant
If a new service line is required to supply the natural gas to the distributed reformer, the hydrogen cost will increase by $0.1 -$0.2/gge.Land for distributed hydrogen facilities is scarce.
Source: Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc.
Resource Demand Analysis
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Natural Gas Supply, Demand and Reserves
Sources:U.S. DOE, Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2004.
Natural gas (42 million metric tons per year) needed to produce 13 13 million metric tons of million metric tons of hydrogenhydrogen to fuel 49 49 million vehiclesmillion vehicles 430 330 4
1500 1580 130
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Notes:• Reserves as of January 1, 2005.• Production and consumption data are expressed as dry gas.
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Actual and Projected U.S. HEV Sales
*Data through 2006 From hybridcars.com May 16, 2006
**Data beyond 2006 from JD Power and Associates HEV Outlook
9 20 35 4888
206
281316
350
458
565
673
780
887
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Year
Ann
ual V
ehic
le S
ales
(tho
usan
ds) HEV sales (actual)*
HEV sales (projected)**
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Infrastructure Necessary to Support Vehicle Penetration - Nationwide (2012-2025)
1500 kg/day Distributed Steam Methane Reforming Stations
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Year
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
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In addition to more stations overall, Scenario 3 gives a greater role to cities other than NY and
LA.
Estimated Station Deployment, Scenario 1
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Ref
uelin
g St
atio
ns
Rest of USALANYCRest of PacificRest of Northeast Estimated Station Deployment, Scenario 3
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5000
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Ref
uelin
g St
atio
ns
Rest of USALARest of NortheastNYCRest of PacificEstimated Station Deployment, Scenario 2
-100100300500700900
110013001500
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Ref
uelin
g St
atio
ns
Rest of USALANYCRest of NortheastRest of Pacific