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TRANSCRIPT
Missouri Yields Compared to National
Macon Average Basis By Month
Average Futures By Month
Ending Stocks Ending Stocks Yield MO MO
Year U.S. Yield final beginning est MO Yield US / MO diff. N/C district N/E district NC/NE diff.
2003 142 1087 759 111 31 110 68 42
2004 160 958 1350 162 -2 162 169 -7
2005 148 2113 1690 111 37 110 68 42
2006 149 1967 2219 138 11 147 137 10
2007 151 1304 996 140 11 136 136 0
2008 153 1624 1997 144 9 136 137 -1
2009 164 1673 1088 166 -2 144 149 -5
2010 153 1708 1672 145 8 104 106 16
2011 147 1128 902 114 33 120 104 16
2012 123 989 866 75 48 59 45 14
2013 159 821 619 136 23 116 123 -7
2014 171 1855 1232 181 -10 181 188 -7
2015 168 1731 1808 142 26 140 124 -7
2016 175 1738 2008 163 12 169 170 1
BASIS
Month 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average Range
January -$0.04 -$0.08 -$0.02 -$0.21 -$0.28 -$0.17 -$0.32 -$0.27 -$0.08 $0.33 $0.03 -$0.33 $0.01 -$0.22 -$0.12 $0.66
February -$0.03 -$0.15 -$0.08 -$0.18 -$0.29 $0.04 -$0.24 -$0.26 -$0.09 $0.37 $0.00 -$0.19 -$0.02 -$0.25 -$0.10 $0.63
March -$0.08 -$0.14 -$0.12 -$0.25 -$0.40 -$0.05 -$0.25 -$0.24 $0.02 $0.37 -$0.17 -$0.29 -$0.08 -$0.25 -$0.14 $0.77
April -$0.02 -$0.11 -$0.15 -$0.11 -$0.47 -$0.21 -$0.12 -$0.15 $0.17 $0.47 -$0.15 -$0.28 -$0.14 -$0.14 -$0.10 $0.94
May $0.02 -$0.10 -$0.23 $0.06 -$0.53 -$0.21 -$0.22 -$0.08 $0.43 $0.54 -$0.12 -$0.17 -$0.18 -$0.06 $1.07
June -$0.05 -$0.19 -$0.18 $0.07 -$0.51 -$0.15 -$0.19 $0.00 $0.60 $0.85 $0.06 -$0.18 -$0.25 -$0.01 $1.36
July -$0.04 -$0.22 -$0.21 $0.04 -$0.40 -$0.01 -$0.28 $0.34 $0.06 $1.49 $0.07 -$0.24 -$0.21 $0.03 $1.89
August -$0.04 -$0.07 -$0.17 -$0.03 -$0.14 -$0.09 -$0.33 $0.11 $0.00 $0.73 -$0.06 -$0.16 -$0.31 -$0.04 $0.90
September -$0.21 -$0.26 -$0.28 -$0.33 -$0.29 -$0.20 -$0.51 -$0.22 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.16 -$0.26 -$0.43 -$0.24 $0.50
October -$0.28 -$0.19 -$0.26 -$0.20 -$0.18 -$0.18 -$0.44 -$0.08 $0.20 -$0.17 -$0.54 -$0.20 -$0.37 -$0.22 $0.74
November -$0.17 $0.03 -$0.13 -$0.16 -$0.16 -$0.20 -$0.29 -$0.08 $0.27 -$0.01 -$0.45 -$0.02 -$0.35 -$0.13 $0.72
December -$0.18 -$0.01 -$0.20 -$0.28 -$0.23 -$0.36 -$0.24 -$0.10 $0.20 -$0.01 -$0.40 -$0.03 -$0.30 -$0.16 $0.60
FUTURES 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average Range
January $2.67 $2.00 $2.13 $3.91 $4.88 $3.91 $3.86 $6.35 $6.28 $7.14 $4.27 $3.89 $3.63 $3.61 $4.22 5.14
February $2.83 $2.08 $2.23 $4.12 $5.17 $3.63 $3.63 $6.93 $6.40 $7.04 $4.46 $3.84 $3.63 $3.69 $4.26 4.96
March $3.06 $2.17 $2.28 $4.07 $5.53 $3.80 $3.68 $6.89 $6.49 $7.15 $4.84 $3.86 $3.63 $3.66 $4.36 4.98
April $3.16 $2.12 $2.37 $3.62 $5.93 $4.21 $3.54 $7.50 $6.30 $6.30 $5.01 $3.75 $3.73 $3.63 $4.37 5.38
May $3.02 $2.12 $2.50 $3.74 $6.03 $4.21 $3.66 $7.25 $6.01 $6.50 $4.89 $3.61 $3.93 $4.42 5.13
June $2.86 $2.22 $2.38 $3.81 $6.98 $4.14 $3.48 $7.21 $5.83 $6.25 $4.48 $3.64 $4.12 $4.41 4.99
July $2.37 $2.40 $2.49 $3.30 $6.51 $3.27 $3.78 $6.68 $7.59 $5.28 $3.80 $4.12 $3.46 $4.23 5.22
August $2.25 $2.16 $2.30 $3.31 $5.52 $3.27 $4.10 $7.16 $8.09 $4.81 $3.59 $3.68 $3.24 $4.11 5.93
September $2.18 $2.10 $2.49 $3.59 $5.46 $3.25 $4.86 $7.04 $7.68 $4.62 $3.39 $3.79 $3.34 $4.14 5.58
October $2.05 $2.02 $3.04 $3.58 $4.13 $3.72 $5.49 $6.28 $7.50 $4.39 $3.46 $3.83 $3.50 $4.08 5.48
November $1.99 $1.93 $3.55 $3.81 $3.75 $3.91 $5.49 $6.28 $7.39 $4.23 $3.74 $3.66 $3.45 $4.09 5.46
December $2.05 $2.08 $3.75 $4.32 $3.69 $4.02 $5.94 $6.03 $7.20 $4.29 $4.03 $3.71 $3.54 $4.20 5.15
U.S. Carryout Compared to Futures Price
Crop Insurance Guarantees
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Projected 4.06 5.4 4.04 3.99 6.01 5.68 5.65 4.62 4.15 3.86 3.96
Harvest 3.82 4.13 3.9 5.52 6.32 7.5 4.39 3.49 3.83 3.49
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Projected 8.09 13.36 8.8 9.23 13.49 12.55 12.87 11.36 9.73 8.85 10.19
Harvest 9.75 10.36 9.66 11.63 12.14 15.39 12.87 9.65 8.91 9.75
Futures Spreads
Temperature and Yield Correlation
SPREADS Next Mo Diff Date
CH08 CK08 -0.1375 3/14/2008
CK08 CN08 -0.0650 5/14/2008
CN08 CU08 -0.0675 7/14/2008
CU08 CZ08 -0.1575 9/12/2008
CZ08 CH09 -0.1400 12/12/2008
CH09 CK09 -0.1350 3/13/2009
CK09 CN09 -0.0675 5/14/2009
CN09 CU09 0.1150 7/14/2009
CU09 CZ09 -0.1275 9/14/2009
CZ09 CH10 -0.1650 12/14/2009
CH10 CK10 -0.1025 3/12/2010
CK10 CN10 -0.0625 5/14/2010
CN10 CU10 -0.0900 7/14/2010
CU10 CZ10 -0.1700 9/14/2010
CZ10 CH11 -0.1275 12/14/2010
CH11 CK11 -0.0200 3/14/2011
CK11 CN11 -0.0300 5/13/2011
CN11 CU11 0.2575 7/14/2011
CU11 CZ11 -0.1125 9/14/2011
CZ11 CH12 -0.0075 12/14/2011
CH12 CK12 0.1075 3/14/2012
CK12 CN12 0.2500 5/14/2012
CN12 CU12 0.1525 7/13/2012
CU12 CZ12 -0.0450 9/14/2012
CZ12 CH13 -0.1200 12/14/2012
CH13 CK13 0.1625 3/14/2013
CK13 CN13 0.5425 5/14/2013
CN13 CU13 1.5600 7/12/2013
CU13 CZ13 -0.0900 9/13/2013
CZ13 CH14 -0.0500 12/13/2013
CH14 CK14 -0.1375 3/14/2014
CK14 CN14 -0.0075 5/14/2014
CN14 CU14 0.0875 7/14/2014
CU14 CZ14 0.0050 9/12/2014
CZ14 CH15 -0.1125 12/12/2014
CH15 CK15 -0.06 3/12/2015
CK15 CN15 -0.0375 5/1/2015
CN15 CU15 -0.08 6/15/2015
CU15 CZ15 -0.11 8/15/2015
CZ15 CH16 -0.06 12/14/2015
CH16 CK16 -0.04 3/14/2016
CK16 CN16 -0.035 5/1/2016
CN16 CU16 -0.05 6/20/2016
CU16 CZ16 -0.1 8/15/2016
CZ16 CH17 -0.11 12/1/2016
CH17 CK17 -0.07 3/14/2017
CK17 CN17 -0.075 4/28/2017
Quarterly Stocks
Corn Distribution
10 Year Macon Futures and Basis
Acreage Trends
Here’s a look at initial 17/18 carryout and price scenarios. I’ve made some fairly large adjustments to
my demand estimates, specifically in exports. I’ve got exports at 1.75B vs the USDA at 1.875B. Both
estimates are a substantial reduction vs the 2.225B this year. US export offers out of the Gulf and PNW
are 30-40 cpb higher than South American offers to Southeast Asia. In addition, rumors that Mexico has
already booked 120MM bushels out of Brazil for 17/18 crop year, which is a direct hit to US exports. I’ve
also got Feed & Residual at 38% of production, so as production increases/decreases, F&R moves in
tandem. USDA has reported F&R at approximately 38% of production on average for the past 3
years. Residual seems to be their contingency factor to eliminate fluctuations from huge yield
adjustments.
It’s going to take a sub 166 yield to bring the carryout below 2B bushels at 90MM planted acres. Based
on recent conversations with contacts in IL, sounds like there is already talk of switching to beans
when/if things dry out in the next week as crop insurance date deadline is looming for corn. This will
definitely be something to watch – losing IL acres has a substantial impact on national yield as those are
some of the highest yielding acres in the US.