2009 nafta mexico sugar update & prospects for growth pedro l. figueroa ed&f man sugar, inc
TRANSCRIPT
E. D. & F. MAN – At a glance….British company originating back - Established 1783
Global leading supplierSugar, Coffee, Cocoa, Molasses, Cane Ethanol, Bio-Fuels
Recognized branded Industrial client base
Logistical and marketing link for growers
Reliable uninterrupted supply of high quality product for manufacturers
+5,000 employees worldwide in over 75 countries
British company originating back - Established 1783
Global leading supplierSugar, Coffee, Cocoa, Molasses, Cane Ethanol, Bio-Fuels
Recognized branded Industrial client base
Logistical and marketing link for growers
Reliable uninterrupted supply of high quality product for manufacturers
+5,000 employees worldwide in over 75 countries
Annual Revenues: US$ 8B
NAFTA 2009: The Apparent Picture, Part II (Mexico)
Beginning Stocks: 940k MT
Production: 5,350k MT
Imports: 140k MT
Total Supply: 6,430k MT
Consumption: 4,900k MT
Exports: 750k MT
Ending Stocks: 780k MT
Total: 6,430k MT
MXN Demise – The Peso Story
Relative stability trading between 10 – 11 during 07/08 Significant USD strength Q4 08 through 1Q 09 – 30% devaluation USD expected to remain strong against other currencies on the back
of USD repatriation and Euro/Sterling weakness
Mexican Peso vs US Dollar
9
9.5
10
10.5
11
11.5
12
12.5
13
13.5
14
14.5
15
MXN
Mexican Sugar Exports & Projections
Exports to US for 07/08 at 0.5MMT Exports projected to rise to between 700KMT – 800KMT in 08/09 Sales to US driven by stronger returns in Pesos
Total 07/08 Mexican Exports vs 08/09 Projected Sugar Exports
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
1000000
08/09 07/08
Increase in domestic prices on the back of weaker Peso Export Refined Values app. $510-$520, Estandar $385-$395/MT Ex
Mill
MXN/50kg USD/Mt
Refined 285 542.85
Estandar 240 457.14
Mexican Domestic Prices (Aug 08) Ex-Mill Purchase
MXN/50kg USD/Mt
Refined 305 428.07
Estandar 250 350.87
Ex-Mill Purchase
Mexican Domestic Prices (Feb 09)
Logistics & Q.C. – Key to the Export Program
Bulk Rail Transfer Capabilities – Fixed Asset Investment (Mexico)
Foodservice Packaging Format, Specialty Sugars, Blends
Health & Food Safety/Accreditations
Rail vs. Maritime Freight Flexibility
Warehousing/Carry/Distribution
2009 Summary: What to expect…. Exports: +750k MT forecasted Refined vs. Non-refined imports Further consolidation in Mexico √ - Currency volatility Improved Logistics Enhanced QC Methods Closer to production marketing Wider array - products Closer transparency between
Mexican & US standards Reliable & continued
consistency in supply