2009 investment overview

Securities offered through CBIZ Financial Solutions, Inc, FINRA, SIPC 44 Baltimore, St, Cumberland, MD. 21502 (301) 777-7550

CBIZ Wealth Management Services Past and Present: Second Half 2009

Jim HilesSenior Wealth Advisor

Vice President

Phone: (800) 824-9578 ext 297E-mail: [email protected]


Secular BearSecular BearSecular Bull

Secular Bull

Secular Bull

Secular Bear?


Understanding Portfolio Management Styles

• Buy and Hold • Strategic Asset Allocation (Modern Portfolio Theory)• Short Term Trading • “Total Return” or Active Allocation

Which style works best in current market conditions?


CBIZ Investment Management “Total Return” Process

Issue 1: What to buy? – Screening winners: 96 managers and funds in the

stable• Fundamentally the best bonds, funds, managers,

stocks

Issue 2: When to buy or sell?• Sell Side Discipline• Invest with market


The Psychology of Momentum and Trends• Momentum and trend investing work because of a basic human trait.

People imitate successful behavior. When they hear of others making money in the market, they buy in.

• Eventually the trend reverses. It may be merely the normal expansions and contractions of the business cycle. Sometimes the cause is more dramatic — an asset bubble, a major war, a pandemic, or an unexpected financial shock.

• When the trend reverses, successful investors sell early. The imitation of success gradually turns the previous buying momentum into selling momentum.

• You will never catch the top or bottom however you can board the train without getting crushed.


So what is our strategy?

• Advance and Protect– We specialize in adding and removing risk when it is appropriate – The objective with any money management strategy should be to

reduce risk and maximize returns — with risk reduction being the most important factor.

• Total Return Capitalizes on Change– Invest with, and not against, the market – Advancing and declining markets can work in your favor.


Principal Protection Oriented

What most money managers and individual investors don't understand is that a loss is twice as important as a gain.

Protecting your capital in the down market years has an exponential effect on growing your capital over time.

The objective with any money management strategy should be to reduce risk and maximize returns — with risk reduction being the most important factor.

Invest with, and not against, the market and let the mathematics of an advancing and declining market work in your favor.

1. Buying and owning long positions2. Making money when the markets drop via inverse funds3. Cash


August Snapshot• Current Emphasis

– Emerging Markets– China, India, Australia, Brazil, Canada– Energy

• Oil– Commodities– US equities (less in Europe and Japan)– Shorter term Municipals Bonds– Shorter Duration Corp and High Yield Bonds

• Rally may last several weeks to several months• Issues

– Rising Interest rates– Deflation; inflation in the future– Dollar falling (Euro? stronger)– Market run up should continue into the 4th quarter– Another major correction possible in 2010


Disclosures and Important Information

• The opinions expressed are those of the advisor and there can be no guarantees as to how markets, investments or products will perform.

• This presentation is for educational purposes only, and not an offer to buy or sell securities. The information should not be viewed or relied upon as advice with respect to asset allocation or any particular investment

• The views of Mr. Hiles are his own and do not necessarily represent the views of CBIZ or CBIZ Financial Solutions, LLC.

• Performance quoted is past performance and cannot guarantee comparable future results; current performance may be lower or higher.

• Diversification does not assure profit or eliminate the risk of loss.• The information herein has been obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable and

accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. • Consult your tax and legal advisors• Read the prospectus prior to investing.

2009 investment overview

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