20080717_foodcrisis_session 2_wto rule contribution to food security_peters

8/7/2019 20080717_FoodCrisis_Session 2_WTO Rule Contribution to Food Security_Peters

1/13

How can WTO rules and contribute to food secGeneva, July 2008

Ralf Peters

Trade Negotiations and Commercial DDivision on International T

UNCTAD, Geneva

United Nations Conference on Trade and DUnited Nations Conference on Trade and De

[email protected]


2/13

Annual price move

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2

Source: David Vanzetti and Ralf Peters, UNCTAD estimates with ATPSM


3/13

2007/08 rice pric

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar

Source: USDA. Thai grade B


4/13

Contributing factors to

Short term factors Rising oil prices

Increase of bio-fuels

Supply shortages: drought

Speculation Export restrictions

Lack of market structures that ensure fair comp

Medium/long term factors Population growth

Changing diet in emerging countries

Falling stocks

Weak agricultural sector in developing c. and L


5/13

Impacts

Net seller or buyer

Poor spend large share of income

often net buyers Risng food prices increases povert

Food bill doubled in low income f


6/13

LDC food impo

100

5100

10100

15100

20100

25100

30100

Cerea

ls

Vegetab

leOils

Dairy

Meat

Suga

$m

Source: FAO


7/13

WTO provisions an

security Tariffs

Export restrictions

Special products

Safeguards

Domestic Support


8/13

Can Doha solve the

Liberalization of agricultural sec

Rising world prices

Domestic prices may fall (not LD

Shift in production to developing


9/13

Change in produc

Full liberalisation

-20.00

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

Livestoc

k

Bovin

emea

t

Poult

ry

Milk,co

nc.

Whe

atRice

Maize

Suga

r,raw

Suga

r,refin

ed

Oilse

eds,

temp.

Oilse

eds

t

Changein%



10/13

Change in global pro

Full liberalisationWorld

-2.50

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

Lives

tock

Bovin

emea

t

Poult

ry

Milk,co

nc.

Whe

atRice

Maize

Suga

r,raw

Suga

r

Changein%



11/13

Results

Change in Production Production in developed countries most Production in developing countries mos

but e.g. in case of wheat from low base

World production increasing or slightly

but changes small

Self sufficiency increasing in DCsproduction not always increasing But scenario too ambitious

Doha mostly about squeezing out the wand DS in developed)


12/13

Recommendat

Doha contribution limited But should continue

Developing countries Investment in agriculture to increase pro

Research and development

Temporarily subsidising inputs to increa

Developed countries Reduce or eliminate trade distorting sub

Careful with bio-fuels

Technology transfer Support DCs (ODA for Agriculture dropyears)


13/13

Note: This publication has been made available by CSEND with the agrement of the author.

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20080717_foodcrisis_session 2_wto rule contribution to food security_peters

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