Session 8: Climate change and Australia's international transport links—aviation and maritime challenges

8th BITRE Transport Colloquium Australian Transport – building capacity and competitiveness

David Cosgrove

Parliament House Canberra18-19 June 2008

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 2007

billio

n p

as

s-k

m t

rav

elle

d

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5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

billio

n lit

res

fu

el c

on

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Total Australian passenger task

National liquid fuel sales

Steadily increasing passenger and freight tasks

Steadily increasing transport energy use

Sources: BITRE estimates – for domestic transport, ABARE fuel consumption data – for domestic sales.

Total Australian Passenger Task, 1945 - 2007

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100

200

300

400

500

600

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

bill

ion

pa

ss

en

ge

r-k

m

Domestic marine

Domestic aviation

Rail

Other road

Bus

Car

Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates

Total Australian Passenger Task, 1945 - 2007

Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

bill

ion

pa

ss

en

ge

r-k

mInternational Aviation (to and from Australia)

International marine

Domestic marine

Domestic aviation

Rail

Other road

Bus

Car

Total Australian Passenger Task, 1945 - 2007

Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

bill

ion

pa

ss

en

ge

r-k

mInternational Aviation (to and from Australia)

International marine

Domestic marine

Domestic aviation

Rail

Other road

Bus

Car

Total Australian Freight Task, 1945 - 2007

Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates

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100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

bill

ion

to

nn

e-k

m

Domestic aviation

Domestic shipping

Rail

Road

Total Australian Freight Task, 1945 - 2007

Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

bill

ion

to

nn

e-k

mInternational shipping(into and out of Australia)

International aviation

Domestic aviation

Domestic shipping

Rail

Road

Total Australian Freight Task, 1945 - 2007

Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

bill

ion

to

nn

e-k

mInternational shipping(into and out of Australia)

International aviation

Domestic aviation

Domestic shipping

Rail

Road

Including here, for demonstration purposes, both total exports and imports for Australian trade. Even though this would result in double-counting, if totalled across different nations, there is not yet any agreed framework for consistently allocating portions of aggregate international tasks to particular countries.

Total Australian Freight Task, 1945 - 2007

Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates

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1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

bill

ion

to

nn

e-k

mInternational shipping(into and out of Australia)

International aviation

Domestic aviation

Domestic shipping

Rail

Road

Note that if only Australian imports were included here, the international tonne-km values would be much lower (by about a factor of 8 for current task levels).

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500

1000

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3500

4000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

mill

ion

to

nn

es

of

CO

2 e

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sio

ns

International shipping

International aviation

International transport, CO2 emission projections

Sources: BITRE estimates based on ICAO, IMO and IEA data

Global (smoothed) expected trends

Total Australian Passenger Task Projections

Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates

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200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

bill

ion

pa

ss

en

ge

r-k

m

International Aviation (to and from Australia)

International marine

Domestic marine

Domestic aviation

Rail

Other road

Bus

Car

Base case projections

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2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

bill

ion

to

nn

e-k

m

International shipping(into and out of Australia)

International aviation)

Domestic aviation

Domestic shipping

Rail

Road

Total Australian Freight Task Projections

Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates

Base case projections

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

PJ

en

erg

y e

nd

-us

e

Derivedliquids

Hydrogen

Electricity

Coal

Fuel oil

Aviationturbine fuel

Aviationgasoline

Bio-fuels

Natural Gas

LPG

Diesel

Petrol

Total Energy End-use by Australian Transport

Sources: ABARE (2008, website data release), Apelbaum (2007), Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism (2008, fuel sales data), BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates.

Base case projections

Allows for international aviation and shipping to and from Australia (allocating half of their total fuel use; as an example of one method for avoiding double-counting of global emissions, when totalling across different countries).

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50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Gg

(t

ota

l CO

2 e

qu

iva

len

t e

mis

sio

ns

)

International shipping

International aviation

Domestic marine

Domestic aviation

Rail

Road

Total Greenhouse Contribution of Australian Transport

Note: total warming effects - includes both directly radiative gases and indirectly radiative gases. Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates

Base case projections

Emissions for international transport, to and from Australia, are estimated using half of total fuel use.

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Gg

(t

ota

l CO

2 eq

uiv

alen

t em

issi

on

s)

Combustion N2O

Combustion CH4

Combustion CO2 (in-vehicle)

Base Case projections

Full greenhouse contribution of Australian transport

Source: BITRE (2008)

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Gg

(t

ota

l CO

2 eq

uiv

alen

t em

issi

on

s)

Indirect gases(primarily ozoneprecursors) - includinghigh altitude effects ofaviation emissions

Combustion N2O

Combustion CH4

Combustion CO2 (in-vehicle)

Base Case projections

Full greenhouse contribution of Australian transport

‘Global Warming Potential’ values for short-lived gases only approximate

Source: BITRE (2008)

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Gg

(t

ota

l CO

2 eq

uiv

alen

t em

issi

on

s)Upstream emissions(primarily CO2 frompetrol refining andelectricity generation)

Indirect gases(primarily ozoneprecursors) - includinghigh altitude effects ofaviation emissions

Combustion N2O

Combustion CH4

Combustion CO2 (in-vehicle)

Base Case projections

Full greenhouse contribution of Australian transport

Re-allocating emissions from the ‘Energy transformation’ sector of the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory

GWP values for short-lived gases only approximate

Source: BITRE (2008)

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Gg

(t

ota

l CO

2 eq

uiv

alen

t em

issi

on

s)Fugitive emissions ofhalocarbons (esp. frommotor vehicle air-conditioners)

Upstream emissions(primarily CO2 frompetrol refining andelectricity generation)

Indirect gases(primarily ozoneprecursors) - includinghigh altitude effects ofaviation emissions

Combustion N2O

Combustion CH4

Combustion CO2 (in-vehicle)

Base Case projections

Full greenhouse contribution of Australian transport

Re-attributing emissions from the ‘Industrial Processes’ sector of the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory

Re-allocating emissions from ‘Energy transformation’

GWP values for short-lived gases only approximate

Source: BITRE (2008)

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Gg

(t

ota

l CO

2 eq

uiv

alen

t em

issi

on

s)Possible extra due toblack carbonemissions (allowingroughly for net aerosoleffects)

Fugitive emissions ofhalocarbons (esp. frommotor vehicle air-conditioners)

Upstream emissions(primarily CO2 frompetrol refining andelectricity generation)

Indirect gases(primarily ozoneprecursors) - includinghigh altitude effects ofaviation emissions

Combustion N2O

Combustion CH4

Combustion CO2 (in-vehicle)

Base Case projections

Full greenhouse contribution of Australian transport

Known to have an effect – but not yet fully quantified

Re-attributing emissions from the ‘Industrial Processes’ sector of the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory

Re-allocating emissions from ‘Energy transformation’

GWP values for short-lived gases only approximate

Source: BITRE (2008)

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Gg

(t

ota

l CO

2 eq

uiv

alen

t em

issi

on

s)

Base Case projections

Full greenhouse contribution of Australian transport

Source: BITRE (2008)

International civil

transport to and from Australia (using a rough

allocation of half total fuel

use) currently

adds around 28% to the

total for domestic

civil transport

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Gg

(t

ota

l CO

2 eq

uiv

alen

t em

issi

on

s)

International transport non-CO2

International transport CO2

Domestic transport non-CO2

Domestic transport CO2

Base Case projections

Full greenhouse contribution of Australian transport

Source: BITRE (2008)

It is important to consider all sources and

all gases when

estimating total

warming effects –

especially for aviation, due to

high-altitude effects for

some non-CO2

emissions

References and further reading, from the BITRE website:

BTRE (2002), Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Transport: Australian Trends To 2020, Report 107http://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/93/Files/r107.pdf

BTRE (2006), Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Transport: Base Case Projections To 2020, Report to AGOhttp://www.bitre.gov.au/info.aspx?NodeId=16

BTCE (1996), Transport and Greenhouse: Costs and options for reducing emissions, Report 94

Cosgrove, D. C. (2003), Urban Pollutant Emissions from Motor Vehicles: Australian Trends to 2020, Final Draft Report for Environment Australia, BTRE 2003http://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/36/Files/ea_btre.pdf

BITRE (2008, forthcoming Working Paper), Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Transport – 2007: Projections to 2020

http://www.bitre.gov.au/

David Cosgrove Climate change and Australia's international transport

www.transportcolloquium.com.au